Roberto Luongo

vadim sharifijanov

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Oct 10, 2007
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this belongs in every thread, but i read a really interesting passage on the new sports website grantland today:

jay caspian kang said:
the statistical approach to sports comes out of the collective shame of millions of men, who, every time they think about baseball or basketball or whatever, find themselves embarrassed by the game's sentimental vocabulary. Hard numbers provide the foil — a rigid, yet thoroughly disingenuous language
 

Canadiens1958

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Nov 30, 2007
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Luongo

The problem is that the statistics collected in hockey are for the most part no more objective than our eyes watching the game.

Each of those measures (stats/eyes) are flawed in their own way.

The individual statistics are without context and subject to team factors and our eyes remember the spectacular play more than the easy plays.

That being said, I don't see how anyone who had watched the playoffs could say that Luongo has been a deciding factor in these playoffs up until now. He has been up and down and just good enough overall.


Roberto Luongo is the same goalie that he has always been going back to youth hockey days in St. Leonard. Lateral movement that is part of an east/west flow exposes his weakness.
 

Iain Fyffe

Hockey fact-checker
That being said, I don't see how anyone who had watched the playoffs could say that Luongo has been a deciding factor in these playoffs up until now. He has been up and down and just good enough overall.
Sure thing; don't read my dismissal of one specific claim to mean that I believe the exact opposite to be true. I'm arguing for a middle ground here.
 

BraveCanadian

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Jun 30, 2010
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Sure thing; don't read my dismissal of one specific claim to mean that I believe the exact opposite to be true. I'm arguing for a middle ground here.

Well if the statistic used to dismiss the specific claim is "true" how can it not be "true" that Luongo did outplay them?

Either it proves he did or it doesn't. Or are you just saying it is completely unclear either way? hehehe
 

Iain Fyffe

Hockey fact-checker
Well if the statistic used to dismiss the specific claim is "true" how can it not be "true" that Luongo did outplay them?

Either it proves he did or it doesn't. Or are you just saying it is completely unclear either way? hehehe
A .001 difference in save pecentage is meaningless; .933 and .932 are effectively the same number, in the small number of games we're talking about. So Rinne did not clearly outplay Luongo; but neither did Luongo clearly outplay Rinne. It's a false dichotomy to suggest that one or the other must be the case; it leaves out the possibility that they played about the same, which it seems to me that they did.
 

BraveCanadian

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Jun 30, 2010
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A .001 difference in save pecentage is meaningless; .933 and .932 are effectively the same number, in the small number of games we're talking about. So Rinne did not clearly outplay Luongo; but neither did Luongo clearly outplay Rinne. It's a false dichotomy to suggest that one or the other must be the case; it leaves out the possibility that they played about the same, which it seems to me that they did.

Yes, if you ignore (what TDMM was referring to) Vancouver being the 1st place team in the league and Nashville being the 9th.. and Vancouver outshooting Nashville 190-164 in the series and having the last two Art Ross winners.. then yes, they played about the same.

I think a reasonable person looking at that would assume that it was more difficult for Rinne to attain that single number than Luongo.
 

Iain Fyffe

Hockey fact-checker
Yes, if you ignore (what TDMM was referring to) Vancouver being the 1st place team in the league and Nashville being the 9th.. and Vancouver outshooting Nashville 190-164 in the series and having the last two Art Ross winners.. then yes, they played about the same.

I think a reasonable person looking at that would assume that it was more difficult for Rinne to attain that single number than Luongo.
Yes, if you ignore Rinne's .930 regular-season save percentage, slightly higher than Luongo's .928.

They performed about as well as they did in the regular season. That's what you'd expect, right?
 

BraveCanadian

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Yes, if you ignore Rinne's .930 regular-season save percentage, slightly higher than Luongo's .928.

They performed about as well as they did in the regular season. That's what you'd expect, right?

Not really.

It depends on who they face in the playoffs.

In the regular season you play against weak teams all the way up to the best teams.

In the playoffs you play only good up to the best teams.

In this particular case there was a fair bit of disparity between the teams both in the regular season results and shots during the games they faced each other in the playoffs.. both pointing in one direction as to who most likely had the advantage of a stronger team.
 

Iain Fyffe

Hockey fact-checker
In this particular case there was a fair bit of disparity between the teams both in the regular season results and shots during the games they faced each other in the playoffs.. both pointing in one direction as to who most likely had the advantage of a stronger team.
But there's more to recording a good save percentage than the overall quality of your opponent. Your team in front of you has a significant effect, not just in how good they are overall but in how they play the game.

Now that we're in to discussing the finer points, we've certainly moved away from something that's clear, eh?
 

BraveCanadian

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Jun 30, 2010
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But there's more to recording a good save percentage than the overall quality of your opponent. Your team in front of you has a significant effect, not just in how good they are overall but in how they play the game.

Now that we're in to discussing the finer points, we've certainly moved away from something that's clear, eh?

Of course that is the case.

The problem around here is that many people see the stats as being a black and white indisputable truth.. even when they are manipulated to "prove" things that the underlying data doesn't even collect.

For example, most likely Rinne did personally outplay Luongo despite the save percentages.

Meanwhile the anecdotes and 1st hand observation are derided as being "fuzzy".

The reality is that both of them are fuzzy and dependent on many influences. That is why having actually seen the games in question and having relevant statistical data is so important.

For my money, having seen the stats and the games, I think it is easily conceivable for someone to make the argument that Luongo has been largely outplayed by the opposing goaltenders but has played well enough to get the job done up until now playing on a better team.
 

TheDevilMadeMe

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Aug 28, 2006
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Yes, if you ignore Rinne's .930 regular-season save percentage, slightly higher than Luongo's .928.

They performed about as well as they did in the regular season. That's what you'd expect, right?

Luongo only faced Nashville shooters when he played against Nashville. Rinne only faced Vancouver shooters when he played against Vancouver.

Their overall regular season numbers are relevant, how exactly?
 

hislop

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Nov 8, 2010
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thank goodness canada was clearly the best team in vancouver at the olympics, because luongo wasn't going to steal us any games (it's been a while, actually, since canada has had any game-stealing goaltenders at any level). I think of luongo as the kind of guy who can be great when there's no pressure, but he tightens up when the stakes grow. Right now, he's faltering again under pressure - but he's got plenty of company, too.

I consider him somewhat over-rated and a bit of a mental midget
 

Iain Fyffe

Hockey fact-checker
Luongo only faced Nashville shooters when he played against Nashville. Rinne only faced Vancouver shooters when he played against Vancouver.

Their overall regular season numbers are relevant, how exactly?
They give you something of an idea of how his team plays in front of him, for one.

But alright, against Vancouver shooters in the regular season Rinne posted a .962 save percentage this year in 4 games. Does this mean he choked in the playoffs? Luongo's mark against Nashville was .929, basically what he recorded in the playoffs.
 

Iain Fyffe

Hockey fact-checker
The problem around here is that many people see the stats as being a black and white indisputable truth.. even when they are manipulated to "prove" things that the underlying data doesn't even collect.
You're in luck, because here the stats were being used to introduce grey into the discussion, moving away from a black and white statement.
 

Killion

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Feb 19, 2010
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Roberto Luongo is the same goalie that he has always been going back to youth hockey days in St. Leonard. Lateral movement that is part of an east/west flow exposes his weakness.

Id' go farther. I think his N/S game is also lacking. In fact, its non-existent. He commits early, is sloppy with his stick, doesnt battle through bodies to see the puck on screens, plays too far back in his crease in pressure games when the Canucks dont have the lead. And I think we know what kind of goalie that be yes?. Not good...... Im assuming this was the case in Junior?....

thank goodness canada was clearly the best team in vancouver at the olympics, because luongo wasn't going to steal us any games....
I consider him somewhat over-rated and a bit of a mental midget

That was the quiet word on the guy amongst the players on Team Canada itself. They won Gold despite Luongo's starting position with the club, not because of it..... I wouldnt go so far as to call him a "mental midget" (cruel much? :laugh:). I would call him a great regular season goalie, a reliable & sometimes spectacular performer, but tell ya what, he's not a "Money Player". He might, MIGHT still surprise & suddenly get it together if he gets the start in Game 5, but if I were coaching, he'd have been pulled in Game 3 & Id have stuck with Schneider, whose skill set is formidable & seems to possess some mental toughness of the kind thats so sorely lacking in Roberto Luongo. At this stage in his career & at his age to expect a sudden steeliness thats never been there to begin with?. Dont think so.
 

Iain Fyffe

Hockey fact-checker
He commits early, is sloppy with his stick, doesnt battle through bodies to see the puck on screens, plays too far back in his crease in pressure games when the Canucks dont have the lead.
Funny, in the Finals the commentators were saying the fact that he plays further back in the crease than he used to is the reason he's made it this far in the playoffs; that he used to play too aggressively.

That was the quiet word on the guy amongst the players on Team Canada itself. They won Gold despite Luongo's starting position with the club, not because of it.....
Can you provide a source for this?
 

Killion

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Feb 19, 2010
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Funny, in the Finals the commentators were saying the fact that he plays further back in the crease than he used to is the reason he's made it this far in the playoffs; that he used to play too aggressively......Can you provide a source for this?

Dont know what to make of those "comments" by the "commentators" Iain. With the exception of Chicago in a couple of games, against Boston of course, its not like he's been over-taxed or over-worked. He's been seriously outplayed by Thomas which further highlights his weaknesses. But "aggressive"?. I sure havent seen it..... and no, no link on the latter. Anecdotal.
 

NOTENOUGHJTCGOALS

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Feb 28, 2006
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Luongo could pitch back to back 40 save shutouts to close out the final and the tone would change. The only time the Canucks have been tied in a series was game 7 vs Chicago and he played well there.

How he plays when facing elimination or the prospect of being behind in a series will be a big deciding factor.
 

Canadiens1958

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Nov 30, 2007
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Id' go farther. I think his N/S game is also lacking. In fact, its non-existent. He commits early, is sloppy with his stick, doesnt battle through bodies to see the puck on screens, plays too far back in his crease in pressure games when the Canucks dont have the lead. And I think we know what kind of goalie that be yes?. Not good...... Im assuming this was the case in Junior?....



That was the quiet word on the guy amongst the players on Team Canada itself. They won Gold despite Luongo's starting position with the club, not because of it..... I wouldnt go so far as to call him a "mental midget" (cruel much? :laugh:). I would call him a great regular season goalie, a reliable & sometimes spectacular performer, but tell ya what, he's not a "Money Player". He might, MIGHT still surprise & suddenly get it together if he gets the start in Game 5, but if I were coaching, he'd have been pulled in Game 3 & Id have stuck with Schneider, whose skill set is formidable & seems to possess some mental toughness of the kind thats so sorely lacking in Roberto Luongo. At this stage in his career & at his age to expect a sudden steeliness thats never been there to begin with?. Dont think so.

You are correct that his N/S game is lacking but as long as he is limited to a N/S game he can adjust, re-align and compensate well enough to tease but not to please.

Throw in the E/W flow to the game and the ability to adjust, re-align and compensate is significantly diminished. He gets caught in between, starts guessing and is often too early or too late.

Roberto Luongo got a late start playing hockey, around age 10-11.but he had the good fortune to play in St.Leonard that has a history of producing goalies, Martin Brodeur, Corrado Micalef. It is very rare to see a youth hockey team from St. Leonard with goaltenders that are not at the upper end for their level.

Midget AAA / Junior Played on a weak team Montreal Bourassa as a 15 year old,that has a history of producing goalies,Brodeur,Potvin, Fiset, Fichaud, Denis amongst others within roughly a 10 season window some of the Potvin characteristics that we discussed previously were visible with Luongo but not as pronounced.

QMJHL. Played for Val d'Or coached by Richard Martel, a lifer in the Q., competent knows the league will install an appropriate system, patient enough to take a young team at the start of a three year cycle and get them to contend or even to the Memorial Cup. Which is what happened with Luongo as an 18 year old - his third season.Luongo progressed was steady with some high level moments but locally he was not rated as highly. The Memorial Cup was a major oops for the coach the team and Luongo.Later traded to Acadie-Bathurst as part of the cyclical junior rebuilding process.

NHL entry draft. NY Islanders factor. Enough said.

Basic issue with Roberto Luongo is that the longer a team plays against him the more human he gets.
 
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Hardyvan123

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Jul 4, 2010
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A reasonable? Its not up for argument, he has clearly been outplayed in 3 of the 4 series by any objective measure.
I was being charitable

Loungo outplayed Niemi but was outplayed by Crawford, Rinne and now Thomas (this was true even after the 1st 2 games IMO as well

Having watched all the games this has been my observation with my own eyes on difficulty of saves, rebound control, being "clutch when it matters ect.

Obviously it's a subjective view but I would bet that a large % of viewers who had no allegiance in the series he played in would agree with me.

False, depending on what you mean by "objective measure", of course. But assuming save percentage qualifies, Luongo outplayed Niemi by a wide margin (.931 to .869), and actually outplayed Rinne as well (.933 to .932).


Save % comps implies that all shots and the opposition quality is more or less the same for both goalies and this obviously was not the case in the Nashville series .

Save % means more in the regular season where there is a larger sample size and more variety of opposition as well IMO.
 

Hammer Time

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May 3, 2011
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And we're right back where we started. Luongo squandered this opportunity. That being said, should he win a Cup in the future a HHOF spot is not out of the question.
 

Hardyvan123

tweet@HardyintheWack
Jul 4, 2010
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And we're right back where we started. Luongo squandered this opportunity. That being said, should he win a Cup in the future a HHOF spot is not out of the question.

With the Cap hits the canucks are taking on Lou and the Sedins, they better hope that Hodgson turns out to be great and some other draft picks as well.

We can call them Washington West for now. (This is coming from a long suffering Canuck fan who saw the chance for the Cup sqaundered tonight, and in this series)
 

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