Speculation: Rangers cap crunch

[AveryStar4Eva]

It’s a rough offseason to move cap as it seems most teams are close to the ceiling or they will be once they sign RFAs.

 

[McXLNC97]

Rangers don't have any cap issues for the 20-21 season, and even less so after that.

If they are super tight to cap this year, Bonuses for guys like Kakko, Fox, Andersson, etc will penalize the cap for the following season. Kakko has 2.65m in potential bonuses just by himself. Up to 850k each for the other two. If Kravtsov cracks the lineup, there's a potential 850k there as well.

 

[pld459666]

At some point they're going to need to worry about Kakko's performance bonuses as well. You don't want to be pushing cap trouble out a year. Lots of rumors around Kreider, that's a pretty simple solution but if you can't take any cap back, you take a bunch of teams out of the running.

Rangers are ABSOLUTELY push KK's bonuses to 20-21

 

[TBF1972]

Would rather keep Kaut and offer:

2020 COL 1st + Meloche + 3rd for Kreider

Kaut is more valuable than that a future (late) 1st.

That was the line of thinking by Ottawa.

 

[TBF1972]

Rangers don't have any cap issues for the 20-21 season, and even less so after that.

The way they are going about business, they will have.

 

[egelband]

This. We should be hearing of a Smith buyout any time now.

In figure they're trying to make trades first and I'd even suspect they have something lined up. So if they do a Smith buyout it's probably after the 29th. Just my guess. Gorton does tend to surprise

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

Vladislav Namestikov
Nils Lundkvist

For

Logan Brown
Max Lajoie

 

[Baksfamous112]

Pretty much exactly this. Good trade proposals. Right roster players (maybe Rykov over Hajek or Shestyorkin over Georgiev), and we're golden.

Kreider stays available for the right deal as an alternative to Namestnikov.

Nah. Montreal isn’t interest in cap dumps/low end top 9 players. We rather keep our cap space in case someone decent or a big upgrade at a position is made available.

 

[pld459666]

The way they are going about business, they will have.

Nope.

They have well over 20 million coming off the books in 2 summers

 

[Algernop Kreider]

Rangers don't have any cap issues for the 20-21 season, and even less so after that.

Yeah, but if Kakko does hit his bonuses, the team doesn't want to be forced into counting them against the following year's cap.

 

[Djp]

If they are super tight to cap this year, Bonuses for guys like Kakko, Fox, Andersson, etc will penalize the cap for the following season. Kakko has 2.65m in potential bonuses just by himself. Up to 850k each for the other two. If Kravtsov cracks the lineup, there's a potential 850k there as well.

Bonus first get billed to the 7.5% of the cap for bonus snd ltir ...any left over after that roles over to next season.

 

[Dr Quincy]

Yeah, this is what CapFriendly says. And it also says that they have $906K in projected LTIR to be used, but I'm not seeing anybody on their roster who will actually be on LTIR to start the season.

They're in a rougher cap bind than I realized.

They have a 2nd buyout window to buyout Smith. They'll deal Kreider. It will get done.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Would rather keep Kaut and offer:

2020 COL 1st + Meloche + 3rd for Kreider

Kaut is more valuable than that a future (late) 1st.

Nah, keep the first and use that as the main trade chip for a Hall trade at the deadline after the Devils suck again.

 

[Trxjw]

3rd + Kaut for Kreider

I'd be pretty happy with that as a Rangers fan. Kaut is a strong prospect.

 

[Uncle Scrooge]

Buyout Smith
Bury Belesky
Carry 7 D if needed
Trade Namestnikov or Strome

This looks like the likely thing to happen, except trading Namestnikov or Strome wouldn't be pretty.

I'm guessing Staal is most likely of the bunch. They'll sweeten the deal by throwing in Namestnikov too.

Namestnikov isn't a sweetener, it costs to move him. People don't seem to realize how few teams out there are in a position to take on cap, and some of them might not even want to. Melnyk doesn't want to spend money now that he's hit the cap floor, Shero doesn't seem to want to do these deals and loves his cap space more than anything. Arizona's days of being the savior are long gone. 80% of the league have their own cap to think about and think they can be competitive next year. It only leaves us with a couple realistic options which means they hold all the cards.

If it costs a 1st to move Marleau, asking for a 2nd to take on Namestnikov, considering the market, is completely justified.

 

[Shnooks]

Yes all of them are on the block. We would be looking for picks and prospects for any of them. Unless it's a mega deal of buch krieder and something for a top 6 center that doesnt make a ton of money.

That's a pipe dream...they're not worth that.

Bc of stupid signings like shatty and Smith. 1 year deals of names and strome left. But in 2 years we have a ton of cap coming off. So in reality when we are going to be competing for a cup we will have plenty of cap space to go after who we want, sign our own players, and get another trade like the deal we just did for trouba.

Not if your young players develop and progress how they should...Kakko, Kravtsov, Chytil, Andersson, Fox, Shesterkin, Howden, and Miller.

Not to mention Zibenejad needs a new contract in 3 years. That cap space will be eaten up pretty quickly with a bunch of those guys.

Other Sabres fans are excited about our cap space after this year, but don't take into account kids like Dahlin, Reinhart, Mittelstadt, etc., needing new deals soon. We have 12 UFA's and 11 RFA's next summer. Lol. But we definitely won't be keeping Sobotka, Bogosian, Scandella, Hunwick or Wilson, and we might let Sheary, Vesey, Girgensons, Larsson and Nelson go too. That's about $25M, at least half of which will go to Dahlin ($7-8M) and Reinhart ($6-7M). Those guys leaving and our young prospects taking their places can't come soon enough though!

You guys have good young talent, so that cap space will be gone very quickly...which is why teams need to go for it while their young talent is on cheap ELC's.

 

[Richard88]

Gorton takes that deal and runs.

I'm surprised it took so long for a Rangers fan to like that proposal. I think it's more than a fair offer, even a slight overpayment, and unlikely to be beaten by another team.

That said, there are several reasons why I think Colorado would do it despite it being an overpayment:

• Most of Colorado's 2nd line winger alternatives are better at RW (Compher/Donskoi/Burakovsky) or C (Jost). A natural LW is thus somewhat a position of need for Colorado, especially if Burakovsky and/or Jost fail to prove themselves this season.

• Colorado are entering 'win-now' mode, and so the timing is right to be aggressive and compete before contract renewals in 2021 (Landeskog/Makar/Grubauer) and 2023 (Mackinnon) make it harder to have a stacked roster.

• Kreider will be one of the best forwards available at the deadline.

• Colorado will have around $6m in capspace this season, making it easy to absorb the contract. There aren't many teams capable of taking on a big contract without sending money back to the Rangers who obviously need cap relief. This gives the Avs a competitive advantage as they can offer the pure 'futures' deal Rangers would like.

• Avs will have the capspace to resign him (particularly as the Barrie/Orpik $4.25m comes off the books next summer).

• This trade would allow the Avs to add a top 6 forward without giving up a roster player or any of their top 7 prospects (i.e. as per a current Avs fan vote they are: Makar/Byram/Newhook/Timmins/Kaut/Bowers/Kamenev. Meloche is ranked 8th).

• Giving up a 2020 1st would be offset by the fact that Colorado already has numerous young players coming through which make picks more expendable.

• Colorado probably have an advantage over other teams due to their prospect depth, as few teams would feel comfortable giving up a 2020 1st given that few teams has the prospect pipeline comparable to Colorado's.

• If Colorado are trading for Kreider at the deadline it's highly likely that the 2020 1st will be a late 1st.

• Despite being a promising prospect, Meloche has yet to play an NHL game; has only 1 year left on his ELC; and figures to find chances limited behind Johnson/Makar/Timmins on the right side, and even Byram/Connauton/Cole/Rosén/Graves/Barberio. Needless to say Meloche might be deemed expendable short-term due to the depth.

• Colorado just drafted Hellesson as another RHD, thereby making Meloche a little bit more expendable long-term as well. Hellesson's development timeline probably also aligns better than Meloche's with regards to replacing Johnson in 2023.

• Meloche would likely be exposed in the expansion draft (as he probably won't be ahead of Girard/Makar/Zadorov/Timmins if he's eligble/Johnson NMC?) so Colorado could lose him for nothing then. That's another reason why Hellesson fits better long-term.

The trade would obviously help Rangers too, as they get two good draft picks and a really solid former 2nd rounder who can replace Shattenkirk in a year or two, for a player they'd lose for nothing in UFA.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I'd be pretty happy with that as a Rangers fan. Kaut is a strong prospect.

Ya I think its quite fair. Kaut is the equivalent of a mid-late 1st in value right now IMO, something like a ~20th overall pick.


So that + a 3rd for Kreider is fair value.

 

[JT Kreider]

how is a lottery team over the cap.

A lottery team that added 2 of the top 3 or 4 players that were available this offseason.

We just need to get through these next two offseasons, then there will be a massive infusion of cap space with Staal, Shattenkirk, Smith and Lundqvist's contracts done and Girardi's buyout. Namestnikov's 4 million as well next summer.

Not too bad that Kreider will be the lone cap casualty, and I use that word very loosely as I believe he would be traded even if we were at the cap floor.

 

[Calad]

Yeah, but if Kakko does hit his bonuses, the team doesn't want to be forced into counting them against the following year's cap.

Of course not, and by the trade deadline more players will be moved so it will be a non issue I would think.

 

[charliemurphy]

I'm surprised it took so long for a Rangers fan to like that proposal. I think it's more than a fair offer, even a slight overpayment, and unlikely to be beaten by another team.

That said, there are several reasons why I think Colorado would do it despite it being an overpayment:

• Most of Colorado's 2nd line winger alternatives are better at RW (Compher/Donskoi/Burakovsky) or C (Jost). A natural LW is thus somewhat a position of need for Colorado, especially if Burakovsky and/or Jost fail to prove themselves this season.

• Colorado are entering 'win-now' mode, and so the timing is right to be aggressive and compete before contract renewals in 2021 (Landeskog/Makar/Grubauer) and 2023 (Mackinnon) make it harder to have a stacked roster.

• Kreider will be one of the best forwards available at the deadline.

• Colorado will have around $6m in capspace this season, making it easy to absorb the contract. There aren't many teams capable of taking on a big contract without sending money back to the Rangers who obviously need cap relief. This gives the Avs a competitive advantage as they can offer the pure 'futures' deal Rangers would like.

• Avs will have the capspace to resign him (particularly as the Barrie/Orpik $4.25m comes off the books next summer).

• This trade would allow the Avs to add a top 6 forward without giving up a roster player or any of their top 7 prospects (i.e. as per a current Avs fan vote they are: Makar/Byram/Newhook/Timmins/Kaut/Bowers/Kamenev. Meloche is ranked 8th).

• Giving up a 2020 1st would be offset by the fact that Colorado already has numerous young players coming through which make picks more expendable.

• Colorado probably have an advantage over other teams due to their prospect depth, as few teams would feel comfortable giving up a 2020 1st given that few teams has the prospect pipeline comparable to Colorado's.

• If Colorado are trading for Kreider at the deadline it's highly likely that the 2020 1st will be a late 1st.

• Despite being a promising prospect, Meloche has yet to play an NHL game; has only 1 year left on his ELC; and figures to find chances limited behind Johnson/Makar/Timmins on the right side, and even Byram/Connauton/Cole/Rosén/Graves/Barberio. Needless to say Meloche might be deemed expendable short-term due to the depth.

• Colorado just drafted Hellesson as another RHD, thereby making Meloche a little bit more expendable long-term as well. Hellesson's development timeline probably also aligns better than Meloche's with regards to replacing Johnson in 2023.

The trade would obviously help Rangers too, as they get two good draft picks and a really solid former 2nd rounder who can replace Shattenkirk in a year or two, for a player they'd lose for nothing in UFA.

Agreed especially with the money coming off the books and the ability to extend Kreider long term. I would have no problem taking a 2020 late 1st, 3 rd and Meloche for Krieder.
I do think we start seeing some activity in the form of Smith being bought out and retaining or adding a sweetener to move Namestinkov. Crossing my fingers Shattenkirk is moved as well sooner rather than later... but that’s an entirely different discussion.

 

[Calad]

If they are super tight to cap this year, Bonuses for guys like Kakko, Fox, Andersson, etc will penalize the cap for the following season. Kakko has 2.65m in potential bonuses just by himself. Up to 850k each for the other two. If Kravtsov cracks the lineup, there's a potential 850k there as well.

Rangers will have somewhere around 18-20m in cap space next season, no one is due a raise next off season at this point. We will need to sign 2 (maybe 3) forwards to ice a full roster, and we have tons of prospects that are ripening and could potentially take a spot.

The way they are going about business, they will have.

If you say so

 

[JT Kreider]

If it costs a 1st to move Marleau, asking for a 2nd to take on Namestnikov, considering the market, is completely justified.

It cost a 1st to move Marleau, yet the Lightning somehow got paid a 1st to move Miller who had triple the amount of term.

 

[Richard88]

Nah, keep the first and use that as the main trade chip for a Hall trade at the deadline after the Devils suck again.

Haha, now that's an interesting idea!

Hall ($6m) + Kreider ($4.625m) combined would add $10.625m to our cap.

We'll have ~$6m in capspace after Rantanen and Kamenev get signed, so who do you propose gets sent to New Jersey for Hall to make up the difference? I'd figure that the following would be the prime candidates:

• Burakovsky --- $3.25m
• Wilson -------- $2.6m
• Barberio ------ $1.45m
• Connauton --- $1.375m
• Zadorov ------ $3.2m

I'd suggest giving them Burakovsky and Wilson (along with a reasonable amount of non-roster futures), making the lineup:

Landeskog ---- Mackinnon ----- Rantanen
Hall ----------------- Kadri --------- Kreider
Jost --------------- Compher ----- Donskoi
Nieto ------------- Bellemare ---- Calvert
(Kamenev)

Girard --- Johnson
Zadorov -- Makar
Byram ---- Cole
(Rosén/Connauton/Timmins/Barberio/Graves)

I guess to resign both of them later you'd have to lose Zadorov, Cole, and/or Jost (or include them in the Hall trade), but that's manageable with the depth we'd have.

 

[BruinsBtn]

Bonus first get billed to the 7.5% of the cap for bonus snd ltir ...any left over after that roles over to next season.

What are you talking about? None of that is true. You can't use LTIR for bonuses.