OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: We're the Pirates, bro

[DJ Spinoza]

While we're mostly on the topic of optimism, FG has a short and kinda meandering praise of Musgrove up today, basically showing that if his fastball velocity can hover near 93-94mph and we assume there will be no Searage whispering about pitching to contact, he might be sneaky good: Joe Musgrove Is Sneaky Good

Honestly, Musgrove has flashed this on a number of occasions, and so while the data does back up the argument here, and while the assumptions seem like very good ones to make, I also think we need to consider consistency and fatigue questions here. One thing that will be interesting to monitor is the sort of overall pitching strategy that Shelton takes. I think having two useful MRP arms who can give you ~2 innings could make a decisive amount of difference in the overall outlook. If you push Archer and Musgrove to be as aggressive as possible in getting strikeouts, hoping that most of the time they can end up in the vicinity of 6 IP, but not sweating if it's 5 or 5+, as long as those are good innings, then things will start shaping up.

There's no real way to start asking these kinds of questions without broadening it out to the entire pitching staff. For a huge part of the year last year, we had at least one and sometimes two spots in the rotation which were complete trash, which then had a compound effect on the bullpen. If we don't get in that rut, the pitching will automatically end up as a good bit better. How much more, I don't want to start making any predictions about, but the pitching had the wheels come off so badly last year and only sort of barely stabilized in the second half when things started to tank otherwise.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

And to throw some corrective pessimism back into the mix here, there are rumors swirling that the Red Sox may end up taking on Wil Myers' contract now. I'll reserve judgment until anything actually happens, but this would remain the kind of move that the Pirates could do to really bolster the system further and inch closer towards being a top-5 system. Myers would not even bring the payroll to a measly 70M, so it's pathetic really.

I guess the caveats I'd make would be the following. We could see improvement in the next year or two, and either next winter or the following one, see an investment in a mid-tier free agent for 15M/year or so (lol), or San Diego might be unwilling to part with what I think we should mostly be targeting, which is obviously a catcher or the endlessly useful pitching.

For instance, if San Diego was simply unwilling on principle to move Campusano with Myers, then the cheapness becomes easier to swallow on a strategic level. A guy like Gabriel Arias, for instance, would be yet another 19-20 year old SS who has a pretty high ceiling, and while obviously there's no reason to turn up your nose at that, anything along those lines would be more of a generic system building move than a move which might have a clear purpose. We will not be able to solve a long term catcher unless we turn to free agency or the draft, and I'd be particularly uninterested in using up Archer or another trade candidate to get a catcher. However, this is all just endless speculation, because there's no real way to know who San Diego would give up to move Myers and who they wouldn't.

I think the dream would be if San Diego would find Moran useful as a bench/backup piece, and part either with Campusano, or perhaps a high ceiling, high risk pitcher like Baez or Morejon. Then Myers can be a seat warmer right away, and there's some flexibility about how you utilize him over the next 2-3 years. If he's good enough to trade, you probably flip him ASAP, but he could also turn into a corner OF type guy, or even something like a seatwarmer at 1B in the event that Bell is moved in a blockbuster.

At the end of the day, these are empty words because I think that Cherington is dead set on going forward with the current team, putting the new processes and coaching in place, and then assessing as things move. Most anybody could be in play at the deadline, and for now I think he doesn't want to shake anything up too dramatically. I don't entirely fault him, but if Myers would be moved, then depending on the return it would represent the kind of middling conservatism that plagued NH if we weren't willing to get involved.

 

[DanielPlainview]

If they’re going to be aggressive with prospects, Tucker and Hayes should break ST on the 25 barring terrible performance

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I don't think it's so simple. Sure, on the one hand, that does follow, but there's a difference between the MLB promotion and basically having a rule in place that players need xyz number of ABs at specific levels. The AA level is where things can really start to come into focus, and I think it makes sense to not skip AAA except in rare circumstances, but when we start talking about the MLB roster, things are different.

With Hayes and Tucker, besides the very obvious service time manipulation which will 100% happen no matter what with Hayes, there is the question of consistent ABs in order to let them show that they are ready. That could come with strong springs, and I'd be in favor of that, but there are a scarcity of spots right now. I'd sort of separate the two of them on this front. Nobody is truly blocking Hayes, but they won't start his clock before June at this point, I think no matter what. Tucker, on the other hand, is completely blocked unless somebody gets hurt or a trade is made.

I think both start in AAA with a kind of expectation that they can start forcing the issue if they hit well there.

 

[ChaosAgent]

If they’re going to be aggressive with prospects, Tucker and Hayes should break ST on the 25 barring terrible performance

Hayes needs to prove he can really hit AAA pitching. Cmon now. This isn't Polanco 2014 where they were blatantly service-time manipulating.

As for Tucker, let's just see where he gets playing time. As of now, he's a utility guy in Pittsburgh but everyday in Indy. He could probably get in 5 starts per week rotating between 3rd, short and 2nd if they want tho.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Nobody is truly blocking Hayes, but they won't start his clock before June at this point, I think no matter what.

Hayes having an OPS south of .800 in Indy is blocking Hayes.

Let's see him be an elite offensive player at that level before moving North (or East, mostly).

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I meant that Hayes is not being blocked by anyone who will really hold down a spot in the event that he starts hitting well. Let's say that he tears the Grapefruit League a new one. In that case, I can't see a shocker that he's named the starter in Pittsburgh, largely because they will wait until Super Two passes no matter what. Same if he jut torches AAA right from the first pitch.

I think it's a good point that he hasn't yet torn the cover off the ball in AAA before and should really earn a promotion, although I would partially say that the power tool is one that I think he'll continue to gradually unlock as he settles into MLB. I could be wrong on that front, but from all I read and the little I've seen, he's "ready" in the sense that he could begin making the jump to MLB pitching and would have no issues at all being a positive contributor right now. I don't subscribe to any kind of notion that it would hurt his offensive development to have him in MLB, but I think to determine that, I'd want a more precise sense of where he's at in terms of the hitting.

At the end of the day I think there are enough factors which suggest he can be kept down until Super Two passes without it being overt manipulation of service time, even if I do think there's a ton of gray area in terms of this manipulation. I think there is an argument to be made that his AAA performance is fine enough that if the coaches thought he looked good enough in spring training, he could take the job right now and start getting his lumps in. But it's not going to hurt him to go back to AAA and demonstrate that he has taken more steps forward. He's not at all old for that level.

 

[Gallatin]

Do you guys follow Longenhagen on Fangraphs?

 

[Winger for Hire]

Do you guys follow Longenhagen on Fangraphs?

Slightly, yes.

And everyone, don't forget, this year it's a 26 man roster with a 13 or 14, I can't remember which, limit.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I think the pitching limit is 13. I also follow Longenhagen but not super closely. His report on Cruz was a big reason I have gone from very excited to extremely excited about Cruz. Honestly, if his hit tool looks good in AA this year, he's a mega-prospect in my eyes. He may not do much more than hit 10-15 dingers or so (12 or 13 would put him in the top-20 for the league), but if his hitting starts to get more and more dialed in, then he's a 5 tool guy.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Good lord I finally browsed a few things about the Red Sox/Padres possibility. If it's true that the Padres are willing to pay half his contract, it would be rage-inducing to see the Red Sox get Campusano or really even any decent 45 FV guy in that deal. Still will reserve any judgment on whether a deal actually goes down or not, but Myers at 10M a year is basically a slightly overpaid replacement level guy if he doesn't improve whatsoever.

 

[DanielPlainview]

Hayes needs to prove he can really hit AAA pitching. Cmon now. This isn't Polanco 2014 where they were blatantly service-time manipulating.

As for Tucker, let's just see where he gets playing time. As of now, he's a utility guy in Pittsburgh but everyday in Indy. He could probably get in 5 starts per week rotating between 3rd, short and 2nd if they want tho.

Meh. The team is obviously focusing on improving the defense. They didn’t keep Gonzalez around and bring in Maile, Heredia, and Dyson for their lumber. Their choices at 3B are Moran and Osuna. Do they really block Hayes? Osuna might if he hits like he did the majority of last season and plays good defense, but that’s not even close to being a guarantee.

The team isn’t going to compete for the WC this year, and the gap between AAA and MLB has never been wider. Tucker and Hayes can only benefit from getting big league ABs, even if they’re not everyday starters.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Meh. The team is obviously focusing on improving the defense. They didn’t keep Gonzalez around and bring in Maile, Heredia, and Dyson for their lumber. Their choices at 3B are Moran and Osuna. Do they really block Hayes? Osuna might if he hits like he did the majority of last season and plays good defense, but that’s not even close to being a guarantee.

The team isn’t going to compete for the WC this year, and the gap between AAA and MLB has never been wider. Tucker and Hayes can only benefit from getting big league ABs, even if they’re not everyday starters.

1) You can still develop at AAA, particularly in the IL.
2) Giving up a year of control for like 15 days is absolutely crazy.
3) Look at the year Kris Bryant had in 2014 and consider that the Cubs held him down in 2015. I love Hayes as a prospect but he isn't even in that same league.
4) It's okay if we want to complain once the year-of-control thing passes in mid-April. Again beyond that is just hurting Bob Nutting's wallet which f*** him. But don't give up the year of control.

80% of teams would send Hayes to Indy. 20% would try to work out an 8-year deal right now that locks him in (he probably wouldn't accept, remember his Dad was a long-time ballplayer. They probably have money.) There are 0 teams that would bring up Hayes outright until mid-April barring some sort of long-term deal ala Luis Robert.

Tucker you maybe have a point. If we're willing to let him utility around a bit then I think he can swap in for Newman, Frazier, whatever's going on at 3rd and in the OF.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I agree, I think it's pretty much as simple as that. Short of a surprise big extension, Hayes going to AAA is a guarantee. I hope he performs well enough in spring training that he makes this decision look more suspect, but it's as much of a guarantee as anything.

With Tucker, I think you just have to see how the spring unfolds. It will be interesting to see if he's used in different roles in the spring. I'm not totally opposed to him coming off the bench, but the ideal situation I'd like to most is everyday starter in AAA to see what the fruits the new swing bears, and then maybe a bit of shuffling on the MLB team if a Frazier trade happens, an injury opens up more ABs, etc.

 

[SouthGeorge]

So funny to see everybody get worked up over Astros like the Patriots haven't been openly cheating for Championships for over a decade.

 

[DanielPlainview]

1) You can still develop at AAA, particularly in the IL.
2) Giving up a year of control for like 15 days is absolutely crazy.
3) Look at the year Kris Bryant had in 2014 and consider that the Cubs held him down in 2015. I love Hayes as a prospect but he isn't even in that same league.
4) It's okay if we want to complain once the year-of-control thing passes in mid-April. Again beyond that is just hurting Bob Nutting's wallet which f*** him. But don't give up the year of control.

80% of teams would send Hayes to Indy. 20% would try to work out an 8-year deal right now that locks him in (he probably wouldn't accept, remember his Dad was a long-time ballplayer. They probably have money.) There are 0 teams that would bring up Hayes outright until mid-April barring some sort of long-term deal ala Luis Robert.

Tucker you maybe have a point. If we're willing to let him utility around a bit then I think he can swap in for Newman, Frazier, whatever's going on at 3rd and in the OF.

Development at AAA is valuable to a point. Hayes' defense is MLB-ready; if MLB gave out rookie golden gloves, he'd probably be a top candidate. His bat is not where people want it to be, but hitting in AAA isn't going to be a great help to him as far as hitting in MLB, at least not as much as people think it would be. The gap in pitching talent is such that it's not really even worth worrying about unless the issues are technique/mechanics or he just really can't read a curveball (in which case he'll probably never hit in MLB).

If they only have to wait a couple weeks then so be it, but I don't see much value in keeping him in AAA when he's by far the organization's best defensive 3B and has a bat that's probably not significantly less productive than Moran's. Plus, he has some base-stealing capability.

I really don't care what other clubs do or don't do.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Development at AAA is valuable to a point. Hayes' defense is MLB-ready; if MLB gave out rookie golden gloves, he'd probably be a top candidate. His bat is not where people want it to be, but hitting in AAA isn't going to be a great help to him as far as hitting in MLB, at least not as much as people think it would be. The gap in pitching talent is such that it's not really even worth worrying about unless the issues are technique/mechanics.

If they only have to wait a couple weeks then so be it, but I don't see much value in keeping him in AAA when he's by far the organization's best defensive 3B and has a bat that's probably not significantly less productive than Moran's.

I really don't care what other clubs do or don't do.

I'm glad I got you to agree that losing the year of control is nuts.

I'll just say this: not everyone agrees with the "just throw em in to the deep end of the pool" thing. You realize the Pirates held McCutchen at AAA for 2 years until he actually showed he mastered hitting there, right? Look at his numbers in 2007 there...eerily similar to Hayes'. Like scary similar.

 

[DanielPlainview]

I really don't think McCutchen wouldn't have become McCutchen if he'd entered the league a year earlier. He may have become McCutchen sooner due to an earlier adjustment period.

If this weren't a rebuilding project, then I'd say sure keep in AAA a bit longer. But I don't see much value in that approach when you're not even attempting to contend this year.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I really don't think McCutchen wouldn't have become McCutchen if he'd entered the league a year earlier.

But we'd have lost him earlier sooooo...

 

[DanielPlainview]

Who cares? They should have traded him a year earlier than they did.

 

[OswaldBates]

Notes: Bell's new throw; Craig's 1B scoops
WHAT they were just working with his "Throws" late last season ??

 

[Winger for Hire]

Development at AAA is valuable to a point. Hayes' defense is MLB-ready; if MLB gave out rookie golden gloves, he'd probably be a top candidate.

Hayes is has won the MiLB GG at 3rd for like 3 or 4 years running now.

 

[Winger for Hire]

This closes the Legend of Pablo

 

[Empoleon8771]

Imagine using PEDs and still not being able to get a .600 OPS in the majors

I hated the fact that they used Reyes being great in September in 2018 as a justification for continuing to trot him out last year. He's a poster boy for a fluke September player.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Imagine using PEDs and still not being able to get a .600 OPS in the majors

In fairness Reyes only ever swung off of one foot though. If only he could have channeled artificial testosterone + using both of his legs in his swing: the possibilities are endless (like a .630 OPS).