OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: We're the Pirates, bro

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DJ Spinoza

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The other possibility with the Mets wanting to include an MLB outfielder would be that a three team trade happens, such as with maybe the White Sox, Diamondbacks, or Braves, with us getting all prospects.

I've been lukewarm on something happening this week, but it seems like there's a lot of smoke around Marte for nothing to happen. And while I think Cherington will be deliberate in general, I'd be moderately surprised if Marte is still on the team in six weeks or so.
 

DJ Spinoza

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Probably also worth noting that Martino seems to have a so-so reputation at best among Mets fans, although in fairness other reporters are saying similar. Certainly seems to be more traction here than I was assuming, but I hope this drags out some more and we get a true bidding war. Haven't seen anything from Pirates reporters.
 

ChaosAgent

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Kaboom. $36M/yr for Gerrit Cole in New York.

Congrats to him. Wished he did better here.
 

ChaosAgent

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In far more minor news, White Sox trade for Mazara. Not sure if this takes them out of the running for Marte or if he's some sort of platoon DH-type with Abreu still there.
 

Empoleon8771

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The fact that other NL Central teams are loading up makes me want Cherington to look into a full blown teardown more, tbh. I'd be targeting 2023 as the goal for being a playoff team again, and I don't see a point of doing say Marte for Nimmo when you're just going trade Nimmo in 2 years before his last arbitration year.
 
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ImporterExporter

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The fact that other NL Central teams are loading up makes me want Cherington to look into a full blown teardown more, tbh. I'd be targeting 2023 as the goal for being a playoff team again, and I don't see a point of doing say Marte for Nimmo when you're just going trade Nimmo in 2 years before his last arbitration year.

Geno%2BBingo%2B.gif
 

ChaosAgent

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The fact that other NL Central teams are loading up makes me want Cherington to look into a full blown teardown more, tbh. I'd be targeting 2023 as the goal for being a playoff team again, and I don't see a point of doing say Marte for Nimmo when you're just going trade Nimmo in 2 years before his last arbitration year.

You can always flip Nimmo later. If you get the right value, go for it.
 

Winger for Hire

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I'd rather not have them embark on a Zelda trading quest, rather get assets they intend to keep and develop. A player's market value can evaporate with an injury, bad season, opiod overdoes, etc. Get what you need and want now.
 

Empoleon8771

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I think it's a tough thing to gauge. On one hand, they're not going to contend next year, so trying to contend for next year is pointless. Their prospect pool isn't that strong overall and is very flawed in several areas. Outside of Hayes, they don't project to get any young players coming up from the minors to fill a big position of need right now.

But on the other hand, most of their top prospects are in AA or higher at this point, meaning they're not that far off from MLB ready. It's not really unreasonable to suggest that an infield of Bell, Newman, Tucker and Hayes with Kramer and Craig as the bench players can be really good as soon as 2021 or 2022. If they can get Nimmo back for Marte, their outfield should be in a good spot with Reynolds in LF and Nimmo in CF. Polanco is still under contract for that point too, so if he can rebound to a 2-2.5 WAR player, your outfield should be good overall. You still need to address the catching position and pitching (mostly starting pitchers IMO, I think they have some good boom/bust bullpen arms that I like), but the rest of your lineup could be good not that far into the future. And your starting pitching could be there without many moves if you can manage to get Williams, Keller and Archer back on track and Taillon healthy.

There are a lot of ifs there, but I think this team could be good again relatively quickly with some smart moves and good development. Along with some smart moves, you need a good pitching coach to get at least 1 or 2 of Williams, Archer and Musgrove to get back on track, you need a good development system to help your top prospects develop better and you need to get lucky with injuries, but that's not impossible.
 

ChaosAgent

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If Brodie has fallen out of love with Nimmo because he wants a shiny new toy, that is value you shouldn't pass up.

I'm not advocating Marte for Nimmo 1:1 but if you can significant value in addition then still do it
 

cheesedanish87

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Heyman has been saying Pirates want a catching prospect.

Mets 5th ranked prospect is Francisco Alvarez a catcher, it seems like he could be involved in a trade for Marte.

Another thing to consider is with the Yanks getting Cole that kind of puts a little pressure on the Mets to make some type of significant move, the NY teams are always competing against each other.
 
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Empoleon8771

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In the category of "no duh". Mets fans are obnoxiously overvaluing Nimmo though. If he was "better than Marte" like some Mets fans in there are saying, he wouldn't be a 4th outfielder on a non-playoff team :laugh:



I seriously doubt the Pirates will get him, but I wasn't that crazy about this idea anyway. I want Castro as the stopgap.
 
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Empoleon8771

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I like Nimmo and think he's a fine player, but you have to think they need some big pluses for down the road because Nimmo has a high chance of not being a Pirate by the time they open a window again.

The real value in acquiring Nimmo is if you think:

1. He can stay healthy and do what he did in 2018 going forward
2. The Pirates can be good again by like 2021

I think 1 is reasonable. Like I mentioned above, I think 2 is possible, but you're going to have to get a lot right and get some guys (Archer, Williams, Polanco, Musgrove to an extent) to have resurgences. Sure, you could also acquire Nimmo with the plans of trading him in a year or 2 as well, but what's the point of acquiring a player that you're going to hope is good while you're bad?
 

DJ Spinoza

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I like the combo of Nimmo and Alvarez, although if Atlanta were willing to offer up Wright or a prospect of that caliber, I'd much rather go that route. Nimmo is plenty intriguing for a variety of reasons but he's certainly a commitment in the direction of a re-tooling, which in the end is still something I think has to take place. Like it or not, whatever window of contention we aim at will require a substantial number of pre-arb players, which we already have right now. That still could be the case if we aim for 2023 as the first year of major contention, but in that case some of the current pre-arb players will need to be moved in due course, while others will need to be re-signed.

Ultimately it comes down to the best value available. I don't think the rebuild is so clear cut given the roster situation, even setting aside what the other NL Central teams are doing (frankly, the Reds should improve and be pretty good, but they lost almost 90 games last year; the Cardinals may end up getting David Price in which case I'm sure he'll turn amazing overnight, etc). I don't say this to suggest that we can immediately compete in 2020, just that I don't see any of the teams as currently loaded with talent or having talent emerge in the near future. The Cubs have plenty of current question marks and are set to fall off a cliff after 2021.

Getting back to Nimmo, in a move to get him, another factor could be signing him to an extension. This kind of move would be a calculated risk, on both his potential and his health. He is currently not a better player than Marte, which is why he might be the odd man out in a trade. But he was also a dark horse MVP candidate for some people last year before he got hurt. Having Newman with a little bit of speed, and all of Newman, Reynolds, and Nimmo with good to great OBP and contact skills, plus at least a little bit of pop in 2/3 of them would make for a good foundation for the offense if everyone is healthy.

If it's Nimmo vs two 45 FV prospects with some question marks, I'm taking Nimmo, but that implies other things. Marte's value should probably still be more than that, but who knows where the actual offers are at right now. There's a lot of smoke with the Mets, and I don't think it hurts that other possible destinations seem to be Arizona, Cincy, Philly, or Atlanta, all of which are at least potential WC competitors for the Mets.

I'd want to run the values before fully committing to this, but an ideal package might be Nimmo, Lowrie, Petersen, and Alvarez. Especially if you risk an extension on Nimmo, then you line up years of control with the current core more, add a mid-rotation pitcher who is close to ready, and then get a valuable bounceback IF and a longterm prospect. Sure, Nimmo could continue to have health issues, but he could also immediately put up a better season than Marte. Lowrie contributes right away, potentially allowing you to collect a couple more assets if you flip him, and you can also add some assets by flipping Frazier immediately this winter. Then when it comes to Bell, either you make the investment and have him as part of the core, or see what kind of big offers you can get for him. Same goes to some extent for Archer and Kela, as guys likely to be moved during the season, especially if they bounce back (though Kela is a good candidate for an extension IMO, but I doubt they do it given all the bullpen drama).

All of this is just giant speculation based on one possible strategic course that can be charted if a package oriented around Nimmo is the best one. But if so, we should definitely be absorbing the entirety of Lowrie's salary in order to name the additional pieces from their ok-but-not-great minor league system, especially but not only because we'd be able to do that without even really altering the payroll for next year.
 

ChaosAgent

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Yes Dodgers, keep striking out on free agents. Trade Ruiz for Marte, you know you want to do it.


I wonder if the owners are mandating the GMs to avoid the luxury tax...or telling them "if I pay this s**t, your butt is on the line if we don't go far this year."
 

DJ Spinoza

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Just seems like a weird suggestion. Nimmo definitely has interesting value, even if it's arguably not the value for us, but there's no way he has more trade surplus than Marte right now, even though Marte is paid more. Starling Marte is one of the best CFs in baseball. The only people who think otherwise are people who haven't watched him play and sort by one dumb defensive stat without looking up the obvious statcast places where he is still elite. Sure, he could decline a bit more, but he had a middling UZR rating while having to man CF with Melky Cabrera having a party in RF for most of the season, and any sundry of others out there.

Mazara is much worse and have a much lower surplus, but he garnered a top-10 prospect from a good organization. There's no world in which the deal is Marte + for Nimmo, even if the Pirates should be taking Lowrie in order to make the Mets give up something more like 50M in surplus. Nimmo's value is really hard to ballpark given the injury and his track record, but if the Mets thought he would be a 4.5/5 WAR player next year he wouldn't be on the block (unless they are dumbasses, which I wouldn't rule out).
 

Empoleon8771

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The Mets trying to negotiate with the Pirates for Marte only to say "we want more than Marte because of the salary difference" is definitely a bold negotiation strategy, to say the least. The impression I get is that they want Marte and they're willing to trade Nimmo for him, so I don't know why they think they can say "you're adding for him".

It's like me going into gamestop with a good game for a trade in, saying I want to trade in this game for a new game but also saying "but I want you to give me more than just the new game".

Edit: I just read from Mets fans that this guy is apparently a hack, although they're saying he's a hack because they don't want to trade Nimmo. Might be worth pointing out. This tweet summed it up perfectly though:

 
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ChaosAgent

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Wacha off the board. My first "man I wish the Pirates had signed this guy at this price" of the off-season.
 
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