OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: We're the Pirates, bro

[ChaosAgent]

Our king.

The baseball answer to Giannis. Freak.

 

[cookthebooks]

that poor baseball

 

[Winger for Hire]

That is what 70 to 80 raw power looks like

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I am pretty firmly in the keep him at SS camp for sort of three reasons.

First, obviously, if you have an offensive monster who can capably play short stop, you are really cooking in terms of an MVP candidate. Even if the hit tool only hovers around average, if you get average defense, plus speed, and plus plus power, it's just absurd.

Second, it's probably the most athletically demanding position, so the fact that he's already convincing a number of scouts that he's able to stay there is a good idea, and I think strategically also makes it likely that he could still end up at a fairly high value defensive position. Rumbunter addresses him in the Q&A they have up today, saying that he'll be the long term DH, and while that's not implausible, right now I think it's somewhat absurd. Maybe he shifts there eventually after he makes the big leagues, but he's going to be playing a position initially. He's still improving his game at SS and this will be a big year for determining it, but I would say that if SS won't work out, you see how he fares in CF first, then probably RF.

Third, a slight bit more of a stretch, but there is an important mitigating circumstance here, and that is Ke'Bryan Hayes. Even if Cruz only maxes out as hovering around average defensively at SS, he can be paired with an elite defender on the left side of the infield, which will help reinforce the rest of the value he gives you. If you start to think about Newman being more of a plus than average defender if he switches to 2B, then you are really in business. Lots of dominos still to fall, but Tucker could be a good option off the bench, and you also have Alemais as an elite defensive SS still around, to create an eventual scenario where Cruz is the regular SS but is sometimes rotated through the DH spot to keep him fresh.


We'll see how things unfold. As most of us should know, there is a danger to dreaming too much on completely unproven prospects. I think the Pirates find themselves in a pretty unique situation this upcoming year, with looking to assess the current crop of MLB young talent with a wave that is possibly on the horizon. Let's include Keller in with Reynolds and the others and set that aside: 2020 has the potential to dynamically change the near-term outlook for things, and it sort of hinges around three names IMO: Hayes, Cruz, and Oliva.

I think Hayes is a lock to play in MLB this season, and Oliva should be a good bet for at least a September cup of coffee, with Cruz perhaps even having an outside shot at that too. All three of these players have the potential to be above average contributors or greater, and they play three absolutely crucial positions. Between injuries, performance setbacks, and other questions separate from these three guys, a whole lot can change in a short period of time. But they will be the names, besides Keller in MLB, that I am keeping the closest eye on during the season, because simply put, if all three have very good seasons, continuing to build on the stock, then if we are looking at all of them as possibilities to start next February, we'll really be in a much different shape, especially if Cherington is able to churn a bit at the deadline and add a supplementary player or two.

 

[ImporterExporter]

I wouldn't be against taking up the Keller bandwagon. I'd also wingman the Polanco one with DJ.

I'm also still pretty high on the Tucker wagon. I think having a manager that's not going to pigeonhole him will help him.

Like when Hurdle kept trotting him out in the 8 hole despite him doing well when he got a chance to hit higher up in the order?

 

[cookthebooks]

we need a 24/7 oneil cruz livestream

 

[ImporterExporter]

Let's pump the breaks on Cruz people. He has to prove he can hit upper level minor league pitching first.

He looks like a potential stud but there is a long way to go in his development. Don't push expectations to far, to fast.

I really hope Polanco proves me wrong but he's had chance after chance and plays like Jane, rather than the Tarzan body he possesses. Very low baseball IQ.

 

[cookthebooks]

for me cruz isnt a lock all star or even major leaguer. what he is is entertainment as a boom or bust freak of nature in a bleak landscape for pirates entertainment

 

[Winger for Hire]

Like when Hurdle kept trotting him out in the 8 hole despite him doing well when he got a chance to hit higher up in the order?

I think I've made my case for that too many times last year

 

[td_ice]

I am pretty firmly in the keep him at SS camp for sort of three reasons.

First, obviously, if you have an offensive monster who can capably play short stop, you are really cooking in terms of an MVP candidate. Even if the hit tool only hovers around average, if you get average defense, plus speed, and plus plus power, it's just absurd.

Second, it's probably the most athletically demanding position, so the fact that he's already convincing a number of scouts that he's able to stay there is a good idea, and I think strategically also makes it likely that he could still end up at a fairly high value defensive position. Rumbunter addresses him in the Q&A they have up today, saying that he'll be the long term DH, and while that's not implausible, right now I think it's somewhat absurd. Maybe he shifts there eventually after he makes the big leagues, but he's going to be playing a position initially. He's still improving his game at SS and this will be a big year for determining it, but I would say that if SS won't work out, you see how he fares in CF first, then probably RF.

Third, a slight bit more of a stretch, but there is an important mitigating circumstance here, and that is Ke'Bryan Hayes. Even if Cruz only maxes out as hovering around average defensively at SS, he can be paired with an elite defender on the left side of the infield, which will help reinforce the rest of the value he gives you. If you start to think about Newman being more of a plus than average defender if he switches to 2B, then you are really in business. Lots of dominos still to fall, but Tucker could be a good option off the bench, and you also have Alemais as an elite defensive SS still around, to create an eventual scenario where Cruz is the regular SS but is sometimes rotated through the DH spot to keep him fresh.


We'll see how things unfold. As most of us should know, there is a danger to dreaming too much on completely unproven prospects. I think the Pirates find themselves in a pretty unique situation this upcoming year, with looking to assess the current crop of MLB young talent with a wave that is possibly on the horizon. Let's include Keller in with Reynolds and the others and set that aside: 2020 has the potential to dynamically change the near-term outlook for things, and it sort of hinges around three names IMO: Hayes, Cruz, and Oliva.

I think Hayes is a lock to play in MLB this season, and Oliva should be a good bet for at least a September cup of coffee, with Cruz perhaps even having an outside shot at that too. All three of these players have the potential to be above average contributors or greater, and they play three absolutely crucial positions. Between injuries, performance setbacks, and other questions separate from these three guys, a whole lot can change in a short period of time. But they will be the names, besides Keller in MLB, that I am keeping the closest eye on during the season, because simply put, if all three have very good seasons, continuing to build on the stock, then if we are looking at all of them as possibilities to start next February, we'll really be in a much different shape, especially if Cherington is able to churn a bit at the deadline and add a supplementary player or two.

Tremendous breakdown on the situation.

 

[Goalie_Bob]

for me cruz isnt a lock all star or even major leaguer. what he is is entertainment as a boom or bust freak of nature in a bleak landscape for pirates entertainment

Totally agree. I won't believe it til I see it at the Major League level, For example: See Brad Eldred.

 

[Winger for Hire]

I get the skepticism, but I don't think the Pirates have ever had a player with the raw tools Cruz has been given. Sure, you have your mashers like Eldred and Ron Wright, but those guys were homer or nothing guys who mash the piss out of shitty pitchers while swinging for the fences. Cruz's power is so easy and natural and smooth. Effortless light pole shots that have legitimate scouts slapping a max grade on his power, which you don't see thrown around very often. All while playing, and improving at, a premium position with a plus plus arm that can translate anywhere on the field and legs that are currently plus.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I get the skepticism, but I don't think the Pirates have ever had a player with the raw tools Cruz has been given. Sure, you have your mashers like Eldred and Ron Wright, but those guys were homer or nothing guys who mash the piss out of ****ty pitchers while swinging for the fences. Cruz's power is so easy and natural and smooth. Effortless light pole shots that have legitimate scouts slapping a max grade on his power, which you don't see thrown around very often. All while playing, and improving at, a premium position with a plus plus arm that can translate anywhere on the field and legs that are currently plus.

Only cause of skepticism so far is that he sucked in the AFL. Everything else this far has been fantastic and points towards him being our first true franchise player since Cutch.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I don't know if it has ever been discussed, but has it ever been considered to move Hayes to SS with his defense? I don't know if he has the range to be an effective SS, or what a 70 grade defense at 3rd (I think that's what Hayes has) corresponds to at SS, but Hayes as SS and Cruz at 3rd seems like a simple way to deal with Cruz if he can't cut it defensively at SS.

 

[DanielPlainview]

I don't understand why people are all of a sudden pretending Tucker is a bum

 

[Empoleon8771]

I don't understand why people are all of a sudden pretending Tucker is a bum

Who's predicting Tucker is going to be a bum? I'd like to see him move from SS to CF, but that's not because I think he's a bum.

 

[DanielPlainview]

Like when Hurdle kept trotting him out in the 8 hole despite him doing well when he got a chance to hit higher up in the order?

I think what I'm most looking forward to this season is not having to watch Hurdle do the same stupid shit over and over and over again

 

[DanielPlainview]

Who's predicting Tucker is going to be a bum? I'd like to see him move from SS to CF, but that's not because I think he's a bum.

Why would you do that?

 

[Winger for Hire]

I don't know if it has ever been discussed, but has it ever been considered to move Hayes to SS with his defense? I don't know if he has the range to be an effective SS, or what a 70 grade defense at 3rd (I think that's what Hayes has) corresponds to at SS, but Hayes as SS and Cruz at 3rd seems like a simple way to deal with Cruz if he can't cut it defensively at SS.

Seems like a weird move to suggest when the depth chart has nothing at 3B and no less than 3 legit SS and nothing suggesting that Cruz needs to move off short.

Not to mention that the range difference between 3rd and SS might not be the best fit for Hayes who has never had to play without the line to his right and make a backhand play in the hole while upright.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

With Cruz, I actually think it's fairly simple: prospects in baseball are almost without exception high risk in the sense that a lot can go wrong on their path to the majors. In this regard, IE's point that Cruz needs to demonstrate he can hit in games in the upper minors with some consistency is a good one, as well as a truism.

As a prospect, Cruz is nothing like Brad Eldred – the comparison is so poor that it is not even worth discussing more. Cruz has had simmering hype for a few years, and now national prospect writers basically are finding themselves in one of two camps. 1) Slightly conservative, keeping him in the middle-to-back third of a top 100 list, with an anxious eye to his 2020 season, or 2) Pretty aggressive, already pinning him right around the top third of a top 100 list, with the implicit message being that a strong 2020 season will rocket him into top-10 or better status.

Sure, if we want to fall back on the truism that prospects are uncertain in baseball, we certainly can. A huge amount of how hyped he will be hinges on the 2020 season. If he hits well and consistently in Altoona (which, in case people are unaware, is not hitter friendly), then the hype train is going to start kicking into overdrive. Because of his tools, even a more conservative estimation of his floor really looks a lot more like usable corner OF than it does total bust. If his K% starts spiking, then sure, some more questions will start to come out of the woodwork.

But it's actually just totally wrong to envision him as Aaron Judge but a shortstop, because that comparison is only being made due to his size. We're talking about a guy who is putting up extremely strong wRC+ numbers against much older competition while also not just maybe being able to play SS and that being a cool feature because he's almost 7 feet tall, but maybe being able to play SS and have plus defense there. His athleticism and range currently make him more than viable, and he continues to get better. His walk rate even continued to rise last year as he played against older players.

The bottom line is that you should be excited about Oneil Cruz. A conservative guess for 2020 is that he'll have some ups and downs as he settles into an environment that will be a big test. So long as we're not talking about two or three month downs here, this is still going to place him in that #40-70 range on a top prospect list. If you start making nonconservative guesses for his 2020 season, most of them have as their conclusion that he's the third or fourth best position prospect in baseball. He's young and still has a good bit to prove, but there are two ways to look at that point. You can dismiss the impressive collection of tools and performance against older competition, assuming that the more advanced tests will slow his rise, or you can see him as a still very young prospect who has vaulted over the challenges he's faced and may continue to vault over challenges. If we even stick with the Judge comparison, Cruz was basically doing last year in hitter friendly parks in AA what Judge was doing when he was in college, only Cruz was doing it against much better pitching. The sky is the limit for him, truly, and not in the truism way that it is for any number of young, high risk prospects.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Why would you do that?

Because the Pirates already have a ton of middle IF prospects and I'm not confident in Swaggerty becoming a MLB CFer in the near future. I'm not sure what I think of Olivia yet, either.

 

[DanielPlainview]

Because the Pirates already have a ton of middle IF prospects and I'm not confident in Swaggerty becoming a MLB CFer in the near future. I'm not sure what I think of Olivia yet, either.

It makes no sense to move Tucker to CF when he's more or less proven to be extremely good defensively at SS at the ML level and has promise at the plate. If someone is getting moved to CF, it would be someone in the lower minors.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I've had a similar thought before about Hayes and SS, but I think it would probably be a fairly hard switch, especially this late in the game, and his defense is so elite that he's the franchise 3B I think. Cruz's viability or nonviability at SS right now is I think predicated on the assumption that he may lose some altheticism as he ages and keeps filling out. He makes errors, but he's also right now incredibly athletic and able to handle the position competently.

If I had to guess, I think what might become the question with Cruz is exactly how much power he'll get to in games, as well as how he'll balance that with his hit tool, which right now doesn't stand out as plus. I think defensively, he's ok at SS, and it will definitely be fun to watch him there in some spring games and really see. I could see a scenario where he plays some SS when he comes up immediately, but might also slot into a corner OF position or DH some of the time, depending on who the other options are at SS. For instance, if Tucker has a bit of an offensive breakout, then assuming Newman maintains his level (and in fairness to him, he already played a competent SS last year and handled the bat well), you might need to get creative about where to play Cruz.

Just to be clear, I think if the new management is aggressive with Cruz, there's a reasonable chance he could play in MLB this September. It will be an interesting call to see what they do if he has two good months in Altoona to start the year. Under NH, he would almost definitely have stayed there all year, or maybe did what happened with him last year and give him a month or so of AAA games at the end of the year. It's possible that he could have a sort of two-phase test in 2020: first, prove he can consistently perform at the AA level for the early part of the year, 8-10 weeks or so. Then do the same in AAA, after which point it will be a possible reward to have him getting some MLB action in September. I don't think it's likely simply because it's such a good bet that he'll have some setbacks, not to mention the fact that they probably don't want his clock starting til next June anyways.

In any case, I think you just stick him as the AA shortstop and see if he not only maintains, but continues to improve. If that is happening, you will make room for him in one way or the other. And I'm totally serious about this: the front office should basically have a staff member or two who is exclusively working on how to get his swing dialed in.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I don't know if it has ever been discussed, but has it ever been considered to move Hayes to SS with his defense? I don't know if he has the range to be an effective SS, or what a 70 grade defense at 3rd (I think that's what Hayes has) corresponds to at SS, but Hayes as SS and Cruz at 3rd seems like a simple way to deal with Cruz if he can't cut it defensively at SS.

I feel like shortstop is just a different animal than 3b. I suppose Hayes can fake it there but I'd really rather keep him at 3b. But if Cruz looks like a franchise guy and has to move to 3rd you probably move Hayes for pitching. Or see if he would also be elite at 2nd.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Hayes going 2nd to third might be a slightly easier transition, but his range to both sides, in my immediate reaction, would be my #1 concern. As well as his quick twitch reactions not being a great asset in the middle. There's also needing to learn how to pivot on a double play, learning to work with the other MI on steals and covers/cuts, etc. Moving from corner to middle after playing nothing but 3rd could be a very tough sell.

Hayes has been credited for his smarts and good footwork, so with time and work I have no doubt he could make the switch. The big question is how much are you losing moving away from his natural position. If the bat really is playing up in the majors and Cruz or Newman or Tucker are playing to their ceilings as well, the trade off isn't of any worry.