OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: We're the Pirates, bro

[DJ Spinoza]

I must be getting the language of Super Two mixed up due to the Bryant grievance. The convolutions of MLB rules always twist me up.

I have not tried to maintain that Frazier is necessarily a depreciating asset. I think he is what he is- a solid 2 WAR guy who rides a hit tool very hard and might have upped his longer-term value because he seems to have taken well defensively to 2B. The profile is pretty straightforward, and maybe you take an optimistic eye on him for 2020 and assume he'll tick up a bit more. I think there's reasonable risk in the profile which makes mapping out his contract surplus trickier than it would initially assume.

I don't think he should be dumped but if Oakland is willing to talk about Kapreilian or Holmes and another solid piece, to give an example, I'd move on from him. He's not irreplaceable.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I must be getting the language of Super Two mixed up due to the Bryant grievance. The convolutions of MLB rules always twist me up.

I have not tried to maintain that Frazier is necessarily a depreciating asset. I think he is what he is- a solid 2 WAR guy who rides a hit tool very hard and might have upped his longer-term value because he seems to have taken well defensively to 2B. The profile is pretty straightforward, and maybe you take an optimistic eye on him for 2020 and assume he'll tick up a bit more. I think there's reasonable risk in the profile which makes mapping out his contract surplus trickier than it would initially assume.

I don't think he should be dumped but if Oakland is willing to talk about Kapreilian or Holmes and another solid piece, to give an example, I'd move on from him. He's not irreplaceable.

Yeah, Super 2 is about saving a ton of money from not having that 4th Arb Year. Nothing about years of control. Nonetheless I think a lot of that stuff goes away at the next CBA.

Frazier's also been closer to 3WAR then 2WAR the last couple years. And had a second half in 2018 that was every bit as impressive as Josh Bell's 2019 first half...when considering he plays a defensively more difficult position (and doesn't suck at it.)

I just get sensitive about people thinking he's fungible. As it stands right now he's our 2nd best position player behind Reynolds. That isn't a great state of affairs, but make Tucker earn Frazier's job. Don't just hand it to him.

 

[Winger for Hire]

*Dump him as quick as possible*
*Will never have more value. Even though Oakland is the only feasible suitor.*
*Is going to regress*

I've heard all of this stuff very consistently this offseason. And I don't get it. The guy is a 2-3WAR 2Bman that comes with 3 years of control at something like $15M total. That has significant value. If and when Tucker forces the issue, and a team is willing to appropriately compensate the Pirates for Frazier's value, go for it.

One solid season isn't enough to claim he's a cornerstone or should command a king's randsom.

He's a bit only guy who doesn't walk a ton and has 15 HR ceiling and has never broken .800 OPS. It's not exactly the profile of a guy who's long term value historically keeps rising. It's more someone who sticks around their 1 to 2 WAR norm for a while then disappears around 34.

 

[ChaosAgent]

One solid season isn't enough to claim he's a cornerstone or should command a king's randsom.

He's a bit only guy who doesn't walk a ton and has 15 HR ceiling and has never broken .800 OPS. It's not exactly the profile of a guy who's long term value historically keeps rising. It's more someone who sticks around their 1 to 2 WAR norm for a while then disappears around 34.

Just make the package we get for him something like 50-75% of what we got for Marte. Not some of DJ's Luplow-esque packages he has been floating out there (although to be fair, Thomas is looking pretty good!)

Also, please apply this same standard to Josh Bell.

 

[TNT87]

You can't make this shit up.

 

[DanielPlainview]

 

[cookthebooks]

i would pay $50 for correa to draw me a picture of the unfinished tattoo

 

[DJ Spinoza]

It will be incredible if hard evidence about the buzzers comes out. Correa's comments that Altuve didn't participate in the trash can banging might be plausible – his ABs as catalogued by the site are significantly less than guys like Springer's and Correa's, but there is still a presence of them, and obviously Correa's comments seem totally delusional overall.

 

[ChaosAgent]

The Astros are going to be must-see TV this year.

Tons of anger from opposing fans. Threats of violence from fans. Throwing stuff on the field regularly. Beanballs galore. Tons of random AAA arms called up specifically to throw at Bregman, Altuve, Correa and Springer. Players may throw punches rounding bases...gonna be fun!

My id is excited for this. So's my superego.

 

[cookthebooks]

2/3 pretty good

 

[DanielPlainview]

They're going to be booed mercilessly the entire season

 

[DJ Spinoza]

In some ways it would be nice to believe that we have a very strong shot at the 2021 #1 overall pick:



As a side note, a great thing about the 2020 draft from my perspective is that there are a high number of quality college arms who should be slated to go around where we're picking. If things break right, we may get a crack at all but the top #1-2 of them. It's never a great idea to get too fixated on pre-draft MLB prospects, but strategically I would really like to get a college pitcher who might time very well with a wave of talent arriving in 2021/22.

 

[Big McLargehuge]

They're going to be booed mercilessly the entire season

I'll boo any pitcher who isn't throwing at their heads, personally.

I may have to go to a Dodgers-Astros game this year just to see what true hatred actually is.

 

[DanielPlainview]

Curious how long it will take for a bench-clearing brawl

 

[DJ Spinoza]

People are rightly and obviously cynical about this, but I supposed I'd rather have it in this relatively straight-forward promising way than a vaguer gestural kind of way. It makes sense that Cherington would have some kind of assurance on this front – I think this point shouldn't be forgotten, since he easily could have bidden his time further and gotten a job with much better resources, and it's easy to misremember the extent to which his profile was still a bit above what the Pirates might attract. That's a dicey claim, maybe, since you could probably also make it about the newer versions of NH who have been hired lately like Bloom, and as I said during the search, at the end of the day there are very few MLB GM opportunities out there.

But more to the point, the only sane reaction to these claims is "I'll believe it when I see it."

 

[ChaosAgent]

People are rightly and obviously cynical about this, but I supposed I'd rather have it in this relatively straight-forward promising way than a vaguer gestural kind of way. It makes sense that Cherington would have some kind of assurance on this front – I think this point shouldn't be forgotten, since he easily could have bidden his time further and gotten a job with much better resources, and it's easy to misremember the extent to which his profile was still a bit above what the Pirates might attract. That's a dicey claim, maybe, since you could probably also make it about the newer versions of NH who have been hired lately like Bloom, and as I said during the search, at the end of the day there are very few MLB GM opportunities out there.

But more to the point, the only sane reaction to these claims is "I'll believe it when I see it."

1) I would love to see a multi-year budget with discounted cash flows or something for payroll. Like "Ben you have $300M over 3 years, with a 15% discount factor." Meaning, effectively, he'd have $132M in year 3 plus whatever he saved in years 1-2. That's how this thing should go. As you said, I'll believe it when I see it.

2) Some GMs may enjoy the challenge of a Pirates situation far more than a Bahhston/Cubs/Yankees/Angels type deal. Assuming their salary is the same, perhaps Ben falls into this category. This reminds me of the Cleveland Cavaliers GM after LeBron came back:
https://www.si.com/nba/2019/08/01/david-griffin-tears-lebron-james-signs-cavaliers

He was emotional because he signed up for a Pirates-type build and instead he got to manage an immediate contender with LeBron. Just wasn't the job he signed up for.


Couple other articles:
All Aboard the Gregory Polanco Hype Train in 2020

I despise the Polanco hype train because at this point it's very unfounded, but the talk of DH in the NL by 2021 makes me intrigued again at Polanco. If the Pirates move Bell by '21, which I still think is more likely than not, Polanco becomes that DH. There have been times where he's shown a good approach at the plate but those are invariably interrupted by injury. Now with the imminent DH, perhaps he won't have to worry about it.

*And to clarify, based on all the stuff about how he can't throw anymore, the dude needs to be a DH moving forward. It's inevitable. Only question is whether the bat will be good enough to play there.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Down on the farm, a minor league spotlight-J.T. Brubaker

These articles have been ludicrously optimistic, but even accounting for that I'm going to keep driving the Brubaker hype train this year barring injury. I think he is currently the leader for "6th starter" (ie first guy up when injury hits) and I expect him to make 20 starts for the Pirates this year and make a good showing for himself.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, to me it is plausible that Cherington would go for a ground up rebuild. Honestly I think it's probably more of a stretch to conceive him trying to put a good 3-4 years together in Pittsburgh in order to get a job elsewhere. Sure, anything is possible, but in all likelihood if he had the success to jump ship, he would really be in the immediate business of trying to win a WS here. So, we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves on that one...

That's an excellent point about Polanco and the DH, and I don't think I need to reiterate again that I'll be leading the Polanco hype train as soon as the season gets going. I remain a steadfast believer in the mechanical and approach adjustments he made before the big injury, and for me what remains to be seen is if he is truly healthy and can sustain it throughout the season. It's maybe an under the radar, less remarked upon thing that Polanco didn't get quite the same chance to work with Eckstein as others did. For all of the talk about making the players you have better and so on, it's easy to let Polanco slip under your nose. I am fully aware that there are a significant amount of complete skeptics, so all I'll say for now is we'll see. If he's healthy, people will be eating crow.

I do like Brubaker although I think I'd like to see us concentrate on him in the pen, where his stuff will play up. But, we have to see how spring training unfolds. There's enough uncertainty that it makes a lot of sense to keep him stretched out, and there are also enough possible bullpen pieces where it might not make sense to stick him there right away. Honestly, as underwhelming as Holland could be, it makes sense for a guys like him and Erlin to be around initially as depth options if they can hack it. I would very much like to see Kuhl in the rotation as soon as we need a #5 guy, but I think even with the most optimistic outlook on Kuhl's health, he won't be able to be a starter all season.

I have a lot of questions about how we'll handle the bullpen and #5 starter strategy.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I do like Brubaker although I think I'd like to see us concentrate on him in the pen, where his stuff will play up. But, we have to see how spring training unfolds. There's enough uncertainty that it makes a lot of sense to keep him stretched out, and there are also enough possible bullpen pieces where it might not make sense to stick him there right away. Honestly, as underwhelming as Holland could be, it makes sense for a guys like him and Erlin to be around initially as depth options if they can hack it. I would very much like to see Kuhl in the rotation as soon as we need a #5 guy, but I think even with the most optimistic outlook on Kuhl's health, he won't be able to be a starter all season.

I have a lot of questions about how we'll handle the bullpen and #5 starter strategy.

I think both Erlin and Brault's stuff will play up quite a bit more in the pen. I like Erlin and Brault as our pen lefties in 2020, honestly. I do also think Brault should get a chance to hit more often. He will be a better pure hitter than everyone aside from Moran on our bench so he should get 200 ABs this year.

Holland is definitely still involved in our 5th starter discussion this year...after all, Williams blew last year and Kuhl is coming off TJ. James Marvel is, well who knows but any hype train is very much in the rearview. Agrazal is gone. So yeah, there's opportunity there. And look, I'm purely scouting off the reports and box scores but I think Brubaker is very much there. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he pitches his way into becoming a lock for the 2021 rotation.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

So Adam Frazier played the entirety of 2019 hurt.

 

[ChaosAgent]

So Adam Frazier played the entirety of 2019 hurt.

So I'm driving the Frazier, Brubaker and Kuhl bandwagons this year.

@DJ Spinoza you got Polanco and...

@Winger for Hire I assume Keller would be one of yours?

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I was thinking maybe it would be a good idea if we brainstormed the genre of predictions we'd all wager to make, unless we just want to fire off our own in whatever order? I have kind of been batting around the idea of doing a sort of hedged bets, 5 bold predictions in each direction of bold (i.e., 5 bold good ones, 5 bold bad ones). But I'm open to more interesting proposals, if other people are down and think it's worthwhile to collectively stake similar, meaningless wagers.

Edit, and I'd say my bandwagon is probably limited to Polanco. I'm extremely high on Keller and also Hayes, but I guess I'd take up Oliva first of all. Very intrigued in light of the AFL results. I could see him really taking off if the ball remains juiced.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I was thinking maybe it would be a good idea if we brainstormed the genre of predictions we'd all wager to make, unless we just want to fire off our own in whatever order? I have kind of been batting around the idea of doing a sort of hedged bets, 5 bold predictions in each direction of bold (i.e., 5 bold good ones, 5 bold bad ones). But I'm open to more interesting proposals, if other people are down and think it's worthwhile to collectively stake similar, meaningless wagers.

I think I meant moreso about buying stock in players relative to a general consensus or a projection system or something.

But I like the 5 good/5 bad format.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Sorry yeah I edited to directly take up what you were asking. I meant to say I was generically thinking about if we should do any kind of uniform genre of predictions in the thread from us thread regulars. 5 good/5 bad seems like a decent compromise to pick some fun stuff but also pick some bottom dropping out stuff.

Also while we're still on the topic, I should probably say that last offseason I was extremely optimistic about Frazier and thought he could up his power total. This news about the injury might be some reason for optimism, although to be fair he's also been a streaky player at times. But if he adds some pop to his game and keeps the strong defense, that's pushing 3 WAR easy.

 

[Winger for Hire]

I wouldn't be against taking up the Keller bandwagon. I'd also wingman the Polanco one with DJ.

I'm also still pretty high on the Tucker wagon. I think having a manager that's not going to pigeonhole him will help him.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Our king.