OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: The Condemned of Altoona Continued

[DanielPlainview]

Even if Bell isn't a 30+ HR, surely a 6'4", 240 lber can slug more than 5 in half a season just by accident!

 

[Brandinho]

Even if Bell isn't a 30+ HR, surely a 6'4", 240 lber can slug more than 5 in half a season just by accident!

Right, he's currently demonstrating considerably less power than he did in the minors when he had an approach that favored contact. Hell, he displayed more power in 128 at-bats as a rookie. That's why I think that the attempt to change his approach messed something up. It really doesn't make sense that he has 5 homers in 333 at-bats. Cervelli has 9 in 189 and he's no slugger.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I do not understand this team. All I know is that they aren't a bad team, but I don't think I've ever seen such a dramatic gulf between the good and bad stretches.

Yeah, it's truly a lot more stark than it ever was before. I don't think it's as simple as trying to average the two out, but I have no idea how to arrive at anything that makes much sense. One factor could just be randomness: aside from a pretty brief stretch earlier in the season where the bullpen was pretty awful, the team has either been burning hot in all of its components or ice cold.

I don't have a lot of confidence in the ability to sustain anything for the approximately two months that we need, so my attitude is still much more on the side of enjoy the ride. However, the optimist in me does think that the bullpen has turned out to be pretty dependable, and the starting pitching should be able to remain solid, even if it doesn't just turn out 6 IP, 1-2 R like clockwork, and that alone should be competitive enough to stay relevant late into the season.

That's also what I thought as we slid off the cliff, except for maybe the bullpen. In the end I think it will come down to starting pitching consistency and health. An impact bullpen arm would certainly sure things up a good bit, which is why my biggest irrational hope is for Britton, even as all the big contenders are after him. I think we have the system to compete with anybody else as long as we're not talking about a huge blockbuster.

Of course, the insane, huge blockbuster to root for would be DeGrom, since he would basically solve the major need of a front line starter, and would do so for multiple years. In a purely hypothetical scenario, I'd wonder if the Mets demand for MLB-ready talent could play into our hands. Meadows has already excelled at this level, and Keller is in AAA, although he's had some very bad performances in the early-going. That 1-2 punch pales in comparison to what the Yankees could do, but does adding some MLB-established or ready pitching move the needle? As well as another prospect? Meadows, Keller, Kuhl, Holmes, Lolo Sanchez? I doubt it packs the necessary punch of name-brand prospects, but then again, Keller's shine can't be wearing off too much, and it's hard to know how Meadows' impressive performance would have him valued.

From the Pirates perspective, it would actually make sense to try and land a starter in this way. We've proven time and again through development that we won't make it happen, and basically the entire team is filled with young, controllable talent, outside of maybe SS, where we have some options in the high minors. It wouldn't even break the bank financially, calculating for raises and paying Dickerson.

Ok, I shouldn't write too much about it, because there's literally no chance, but outside of the impact bullpen arm, a player like DeGrom is exactly what we would need to try and push the collection of 1.5/2 WAR players more firmly into the WC race for the next 2.5 years. It's not like the horizon beyond that will be about anything else than chasing more of the same.

I look forward to the mildly interesting and useful LHP mid-reliever that Huntington will go get with a couple C prospects.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I agree about Bell's woes, which is why I have been glad to see him collecting hits in bunches. The harder contact ones are more encouraging, but he's been doing his best Dickerson/Moran impression of slapping singles. We could definitely use more power, but if Dickerson's surge continues, Bell hitting a lot of singles and doubles would be just fine. One of the big strengths of this offense earlier in the year was that they made pitchers work a whole lot early in games, and clawed their way into early leads often. Making the opposing pitcher work a bunch is a recipe for ending up with crooked numbers in the first half of games.

In the Reds series, it was almost a parody how our offense was able to make the opposing pitcher work especially hard in the first two innings, meanwhile you had a potential second inning rally undercut by the idiotic batting a pitcher 8th move for them.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Pittsburgh saps the power out of everyone. I think power woes is 110% on the coaching and development from the minors on up. It's abundantly clear that the organization preaches contact and OBP over power. It's like watching Moneyball, over and over and over. When a guy like Andrew McCutchen has been your most consistent power player of the past 8 years, you have serious problems. Look up and down the minor league system. Where is the power? Nowhere. And it's not a recent trend. It's been going on for years on end now.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Pressly, Conley, Yates are relievers to know

Conley is interesting, and has a bunch of control left as well. It seems like we're not in the best situation, since a second lefty arm in the pen is something that's pretty much eluded us, and there's always more competition for that, but this could be a pretty good fit. I imagine that the bidding war over Britton will have more to do with him being generally dominant, and if memory serves, he has historically been even better vs righties.

As I see it, there's really just one spot available, and it's an RP. Once Harrison is healthy, you figure that Moroff will go back down to AAA, which opens up that RP spot on the 25-man.

Eventually Kuhl comes back, but he's out long enough that it won't matter for any potential tweaking at the deadline. Maybe he supplants Williams if Williams can't put a couple of decent starts together, but maybe we also turn him loose in the bullpen and have another guy who can hit triple digits. If a lefty is acquired, that might mean Brault is on the outside looking in, barring injury. Even if we decided to try Kuhl in the rotation again, Williams is probably a better middle relief/swing man option.

 

[TimmyD]

If they keep winning I’d like to see them make a move for Archer

 

[Winger for Hire]

I'm not holding my breath for help come the trade deadline.

I can't see this team being the one the NH starts moving prospects to supplement and I don't think they see anyone on the active roster as expendable.

 

[JimmyTwoTimes]

I'm not holding my breath for help come the trade deadline.

I can't see this team being the one the NH starts moving prospects to supplement and I don't think they see anyone on the active roster as expendable.

You are probably right, but I still think he regrets not doing that those 3 years we had our best chance to win. If that 13-32 stretch didnt happen and we are in a WC spot right now like we should be I could see him going all in.

We have our issues with the FO but this actually is a tough decision this time around. Id move the obvious guys...Mercer/Harrison..so Newman/Kramer can replace(and Kang when hes ready) but after that not sure.

If we beat Kluber tonight tho to get to 10 straight wins, they will do something. Especially if the streak continues. Even getting coverage on MLB network for the first time all year.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

The trade market is pretty weird, but assuming we don't turn around and lose the next 7 games, I expect we'll see an add approach. I doubt it will make much of an impact, but the kind of thing I'm talking about is acquiring someone to be the final bullpen arm who is one of the better arms on a team out of contention. There are plenty of guys who would fit that bill, and they'll just cost a C prospect or two, which Huntington is more than willing to give up.

I do think that just from a broader approach, now is as good a time as any to try and get as aggressive as possible for a starter. There are reasons to be cautious and keep the organization in strong shape, but the team NH has built at the MLB level is one that is a fringe WC team, and the pieces of that team are now largely in place. When thinking about a blockbuster deal for deGrom, Archer, Fulmer, I think the calculation essentially has to be: does this player effectively move the needle for the WC team better than waiting for Keller?

In deGrom's case, that's an open and shut yes. I think it's likely for Archer. Fulmer is maybe a different story, because his lack of strikeouts make him much closer to the kinds of pitchers we already have.

Huntington is so conservative and has not shown any signs of changing his approach that I think it's foolish to even dream too much on a what if package, but I just think from an approach standpoint, it would make the most sense to cash in the chips if it can get you an impact pitcher and leave the near future MLB team relatively untouched, save for Meadows and Keller. It is a similar strategy to what Cleveland is doing, maxing out for the next 2-3 years. If it doesn't work out, by 2020 or so, you'll hopefully have players like Baz, Swaggerty, Cruz, Mitchell etc right on the immediate horizon, and plenty of possible chips to do a more complete rebuild.

As it stands, it seems like the approach to building a solidly competitive team as a middle ground is more or less a strategy that wants to have it both ways, and save Nutting's wallet above all (even if doing the shocking and trading for deGrom and extending Dickerson would hardly break the bank).

 

[ImporterExporter]

Why would should anyone believe the Pirates will be buyers? Bringing up Archer and anyone on that level is a no go. History under Huntington shows that we won't buy anyone of real value. And why???? Because Nutting won't allow it. I don't think GMNH is so utterly conservative, I think he has his hands tied. It's pretty damn clear if you look at history and read between the lines. Remember when we were an actual 90+ win team? We brought in Marlon f***ing Byrd. JA Happ, Joakim Soria, Aramis Ramirez.....etc, etc.

This team is teasing people again. If anything this win streak has put a big pause on the fire sale that was likely going to come. Now it's kind of hard to sell off numerous pieces when you have a 2 week winning streak and are above .500 and within legit striking distance of a WC spot.

We could have traded for Machado given what the Dodgers paid. Seriously. But Nutting will never, ever, allow the Bucs to spend big at the TD or in FA, even if we strike a lucrative TV deal.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Why would should anyone believe the Pirates will be buyers? Bringing up Archer and anyone on that level is a no go. History under Huntington shows that we won't buy anyone of real value. And why???? Because Nutting won't allow it. I don't think GMNH is so utterly conservative, I think he has his hands tied. It's pretty damn clear if you look at history and read between the lines. Remember when we were an actual 90+ win team? We brought in Marlon ****ing Byrd. JA Happ, Joakim Soria, Aramis Ramirez.....etc, etc.

This team is teasing people again. If anything this win streak has put a big pause on the fire sale that was likely going to come. Now it's kind of hard to sell off numerous pieces when you have a 2 week winning streak and are above .500 and within legit striking distance of a WC spot.

We could have traded for Machado given what the Dodgers paid. Seriously. But Nutting will never, ever, allow the Bucs to spend big at the TD or in FA, even if we strike a lucrative TV deal.

Im sure im missing a guy or three but noticeable additions in the contending years and numbers in the year added...

Derrick Lee - .982 OPS
Gaby Sanchez - .720 OPS
Justin Morneau - .681 opS
Joe Blanton - 1.57 ERA/2.11 FIP
Wandy Rodriguez- 3.72 ERA/4.15 FIP
MArlon Byrd - .843 OPS
JA Happ - 1.85 ERA/2.19 FIP
Joakim Soria - 2.03 ERA/1.93 FIP
Aramis Ramirez - .712 OPS
Mike Morse - .782 opS

Doest look too bad, not bug names (at least by the time they came here) but great value and legit additions that helped.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Im sure im missing a guy or three but noticeable additions in the contending years and numbers in the year added...

Derrick Lee - .982 OPS
Gaby Sanchez - .720 OPS
Justin Morneau - .681 opS
Joe Blanton - 1.57 ERA/2.11 FIP
Wandy Rodriguez- 3.72 ERA/4.15 FIP
MArlon Byrd - .843 OPS
JA Happ - 1.85 ERA/2.19 FIP
Joakim Soria - 2.03 ERA/1.93 FIP
Aramis Ramirez - .712 OPS
Mike Morse - .782 opS

Doest look too bad, not bug names (at least by the time they came here) but great value and legit additions that helped.

Those are not names teams that are truly contending go after. None of those pieces got us "over the hump". We're likely in the WC without most of those trades anyway.

The smart thing would have been to go all in during the 2013-15 time frame. You could have easily snagged a still cheap Giancarlo Stanton for Polanco, and a few other good pieces. We never went after a legit arm despite not having anyone who was a clear cut 1 (Cole magically got there as soon as he left Pitt btw).

Instead we got a little here, a little there, but there was no legit to push this roster to a true contender. And I don't think any GM would have that mindset. Ever. Any GM would love to have what the Yankees or Dodgers do.

 

[Winger for Hire]

I can't allow the Byrd trade to be badmouthed. That was a wonderful deal that got them to the NLDS.

Sold Dilson at his peak value for an impact bat that launched them within 1 win of the NLCS. Had a .982 OPS in the playoffs that year, including a massive WC homer and 6 hits in the DS. The trade that NH should look to when approaching the deadline as a buyer.

 

[ImporterExporter]

NLDS.

You made my point for me. None of those deals were true "lets make a serious push" to the whole f***ing thing types. Period. We never aquired a big contract (rental or otherwise), we never really went after higher end young talent (Stanton for one) who were still cost controlled. It was always slight of hand. None of those deals really made the Pirates THAT MUCH better and they sure as hell didn't add big money (going out) to the bottom line.

 

[Winger for Hire]

If you're only going to judge by dollars and cents, you're going to miss out on good baseball deals.

And at the time they were buyers they didn't need high end young talent, they were building off their own high end young talents.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

The Byrd acquisition was definitely one of the best, followed by the Happ and Blanton moves. Huntington has been extremely consistent in terms of pursuing players who fit a specific need and/or provide a small upgrade, insofar as they don't have much of a prospect cost.

There aren't really a ton of examples of huge contracts which are balked at around the trade deadline. Pretty much any of the extremely unrealistic ideas out there (and for the third or fourth time, I expect a bullpen arm with some ok upside, like Conley or one of a plethora of solid righties) would require a big prospect investment, and not really much of a financial investment. I think it's an open question whether Huntington would even have the bullets to do it. Certainly Keller would have a lot of value, but given Meadows' health and general mediocrity at AAA, it's hard to get a read on him.

What's a little bit different this year is that there isn't really room for the more speculative acquisition such as Happ. There are some interesting names kicking around even outside of the top of the potential market, but they'd all be pretty much lateral moves. I tend to think that the trade deadline focus is a little overwrought as it is. It's good for supplementary pieces, but the main impact options are either getting someone who you'd have starting Game 1 or 2 of a playoff series, or else getting the best RP possible to shorten the game even more.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Those are not names teams that are truly contending go after. None of those pieces got us "over the hump". We're likely in the WC without most of those trades anyway.

The smart thing would have been to go all in during the 2013-15 time frame. You could have easily snagged a still cheap Giancarlo Stanton for Polanco, and a few other good pieces. We never went after a legit arm despite not having anyone who was a clear cut 1 (Cole magically got there as soon as he left Pitt btw).

Instead we got a little here, a little there, but there was no legit to push this roster to a true contender. And I don't think any GM would have that mindset. Ever. Any GM would love to have what the Yankees or Dodgers do.

And yet these guy especially Byrd, Happ, Blanton, Lee and Soria all played as well as or better than anyone could reasonable expect from ANY deadline acquisition.

And the crux of your argument rests on one game samples against Mad Bum and peak Arrietta .

 

[ImporterExporter]

Either go for it, or don't. They half assed their way through multiple deadlines when the team was a legit threat and it showed. I'd rather the team just be transparent about how they operate. Huntington has never been given the keys to REALLY improve the team.

 

[ImporterExporter]

If the Mets would take a roster player, Keller, Tucker, Mitchell and say Luis Escobar for Jacob Degrom do you do it?

 

[Winger for Hire]

30 yo, 3 yrs of arbitration left starting up from $7.4m this season... unless the Pirates are going to really supplement around him, it'll just be more middle of the road stuff.

Personally, I'd lean towards doing that, but looking from the Pirates' prospective I just can't see it.

 

[JimmyTwoTimes]

If the Mets would take a roster player, Keller, Tucker, Mitchell and say Luis Escobar for Jacob Degrom do you do it?

type of move they should have made during those 3 years. but held onto prospects because we were " ahead of our timeline " and they thought we would be even better once our top prospects came up. but injuries happened...glasnow didnt pan out(yet) , etc.

Im sure NH wish he would have went for it all those 3 years , looking back at it. That was their best chance. Almost the whole rotation had a 3 era or under. We could have used another bat or two. Then again we also got unlucky with the timing of the play'in game. Only got 1 series out of those 3 years. Having to go up against the best pitchers in the league in 2014 and 2015 WC game. Both teams going on to win the WS.

Like I said, now we are in a tough spot. We'll find out more later this week..if we keep winning and move up to 2 or 3 games back from a WC spot then we should go for it. If we go 3-4 or worse these next 7 games ..just trade Mercer/Harrison/etc and a small add or two.

And if we get a ridiculous offer for Dickerson and even Cervelli....do it. If not, hang onto them for next year.

 

[ImporterExporter]

30 yo, 3 yrs of arbitration left starting up from $7.4m this season... unless the Pirates are going to really supplement around him, it'll just be more middle of the road stuff.

Personally, I'd lean towards doing that, but looking from the Pirates' prospective I just can't see it.

There would be nothing middle of the road about Degrom. He's an elite SP in this league. He represents not only a shot across the bow to the league, but to fans as well. For that package above, none of the players hurts what the Bucs would be doing on their MLB roster anyway (in the short term for sure), and Degrom, even doubling his rate next year doesn't kill their ability to keep keep/add people around him.

It's that bold thinking that would get the Pirates a legit shot at the crown. They aren't going to do it by this passive aggressive bs. You need to take bigger risk as a "tiny market" club. Period.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Sure, it's splashy as all hell, but there are still holes at SS and 2B, a rotation that I wouldn't trust in a 7 game series (Jekyl and Hyde), Hurdle, Hurdle's lineups, Hurdle's pitcher usages, and insanely volatile bullpen.

Could adding JG propel them this year; absoultly. But I think there's enough to show that I could just be recreating the Mets with lesser pitching. Does JG make the team better; you bet your ass it does, but I don't think it's a magic bullet. Especially when ownership has shown (and said) how they don't want to tie up >15% (or some number) into 1 player. deGrom is gonna hit that number as soon as 2019.

 

[JimmyTwoTimes]

Dont trust Williams tonight. Especially against that offense.