OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: The Condemned of Altoona Continued

[WheresRamziAbid]

LOL, Dodgets literally get Machado for the #4 Dodger prospect and a bunch of filler. I get he's a rental but for **** sake, he's one of the 3-4 best players in the game.

I'm probably crying if I'm an O's fan. What a pathetic return.

Yeah no real stud in the group. Got a good not great guy in Diaz and a bunch of guys that will likely be MLBers and maybe even good ones but nothing special.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Closest comparables i can think of in our system are...

Diaz - Reynolds (stocks on these two are going different directions but definetely close before the year started)
Pop - who cares - minor league reliever
Bannon - maybe Kevin Kramer (Kramer is older and farther up the chain)
Kremer - Travis MacGregor
Valera - Kevin Newman

Some of these might be off half a grade give or take but those are the closest i can find.

Our guys are ranked a better coming into the year on fangraphs lists but their guys are risers this year and the stats and scouting grades are pretty close overall.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

IMO from a purely speculative perspective (because we won't add except nominally), the most upside in terms of an acquisition would be a RP. Shortening the game is especially helpful in the playoffs, but it also seems like the Pirates have been able to have good success when the bullpen is really lock-down - when Rodriguez can get through the 6th, Santana, Crick, Vazquez. A guy like Hand would be pretty perfect, though obviously we aren't giving up Meadows + Keller for an RP, and I'm not sure that'd even be smart if we were in first place or something.

But getting the bullpen to be a weapon could be a way to maximize the pitching part of the equation in a situation where there aren't even that many truly elite arms around.

You could probably craft a similar argument that a key to future success is if Glasnow or Brault can really mold themselves into that multi-inning option. There have been flickers from both, but nowhere near the consistency you need from a Hand or a Miller. It's not like Crick and Santana have been totally dependable, but they've done it for long stretches, and Glasnow did have a very long stretch of success. I think Hurdle should continue to be aggressive in using him and Rodriguez in the 5th and 6th innings, and maybe not be as light on the trigger when Taillon, Kingham, and Musgrove are on the mound. But only somewhat - I think the Taillon decision that got all the press was a bad one, but you had the flipside of it with Musgrove just recently too. If Hurdle can't strike a better balance in terms of gut decision (ironically), then I'd rather him be formulaic and quicker.

I wonder what the Padres would want for one of their other arms, or what other under the radar RPs might be out there. There are some possibilities for that final bullpen spot within the system, but that's really the one spot where you could maybe make some kind of impact. The widespread notion that this is the most boring team in baseball is pretty spot on. We're winding our way to 78 or 80 wins, and pretty much any possible move would basically be about trading a moderately useful piece for a younger, likely moderately useful piece, or else acquiring somebody who might tilt the equation from 80 to 81 wins or something. Any improvements will have to be from performance, starting with Bell and the pitching.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Looks like the Indians just acquired Brad Hand, in any case.

Edit: Damn, looks like it might be a huge deal. They are acquiring Cimber in addition to Hand. Have to assume that the Padres will move Yates too. They might get 3-4 really good young players from dealing bullpen pieces.

 

[DanielPlainview]

I don’t expect the Pirates to do much. They don’t have much to offer anyone, and honestly as long as Sean Rodriguez stays in Indy and they can sure up the bullpen, I think they’ll be fine.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, I don't really see a way forward. NH has kind of set the tracks for guaranteed mediocrity, and the fluctuation depends on exactly what kind of upside the young core has. We need Polanco to join Marte as a key WAR player, Bell to at least tip upward, and something more from Taillon + X.

What I had in mind was something like Escobar for a lesser pitcher. Meija is a huge get for the Padres, although the return isn't quite the same as what the Yankees got for Miller (Sheffield and Frazier). I imagine there will be something of an arms race for RP arms, since it's hard to have enough talent there and most of the true contenders really need help.

An outside the box idea would be trying to buy low on Kahnle, and giving Anderson's spot to him, but there's probably not a lot of incentive for the Yankees to move on from him, and who knows if he'll get the velocity back. His AAA performances have seemed pretty decent but I haven't heard any reports. Best case scenario for us is probably something like Glasnow really finding a groove and becoming a genuine weapon, and/or Schugel coming back and performing like he has in spurts.

 

[Beauner]

The selfish Indians fan in me wants them to acquire Dickerson for cheap. Knowing NH I wouldn't be surprised

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Yeah, I don't really see a way forward. NH has kind of set the tracks for guaranteed mediocrity, and the fluctuation depends on exactly what kind of upside the young core has. We need Polanco to join Marte as a key WAR player, Bell to at least tip upward, and something more from Taillon + X.

What I had in mind was something like Escobar for a lesser pitcher. Meija is a huge get for the Padres, although the return isn't quite the same as what the Yankees got for Miller (Sheffield and Frazier). I imagine there will be something of an arms race for RP arms, since it's hard to have enough talent there and most of the true contenders really need help.

An outside the box idea would be trying to buy low on Kahnle, and giving Anderson's spot to him, but there's probably not a lot of incentive for the Yankees to move on from him, and who knows if he'll get the velocity back. His AAA performances have seemed pretty decent but I haven't heard any reports. Best case scenario for us is probably something like Glasnow really finding a groove and becoming a genuine weapon, and/or Schugel coming back and performing like he has in spurts.

Might as well try to get Sonny Gray from them too. Fangraphs seems to beleive he could benefit form throwing more FBs

 

[DJ Spinoza]

This is maybe a scorching hot take but anything we get for Dickerson is basically a bonus, since we got him for free. I am skeptical what he could return, but the extra year brings some value, so who knows. The Indians still have some decent prospects, so a guy like Aaron Civale is pretty intriguing. Control pitcher with a good slider, might make for a good bullpen pitcher.

Dickerson is probably the player to make a decision on. Riding it out with a 4-man rotation is probably not the end of the world, but ultimately Marte and Polanco aren't going anywhere, and there are some options beyond Meadows on the horizon too. I assume some kind of indecisive, ride it out type approach will be the one we opt for, because that's basically the MO at this point, but some more decisiveness is really needed.

A really outside the box idea would be deciding to push Meadows into the mix and go for Fulmer. Look into extending Dickerson in the offseason and see if that helps push the needle. The obvious problem with this (or almost any) idea is that there's no real clarity of direction about whether we should push for something in the immediate future, or build around 19/20. Even the idea of trying to take a flier on somebody is pretty much a nonstarter because there's so little roster space. Some kind of decisiveness would be a welcome change in direction, but I'm definitely not holding my breath.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

It would be pretty ideal if Meadows could force the issue of another callup over the next two weeks. It would enable NH to get some value for Dickerson, as there really isn't another endgame anyways. Dickerson has been a nice piece, but the other options are a 4-man rotation and either moving Dickerson for less later, or else keeping Meadows in AAA for even longer.

I don't think those other options would be disastrous, but again the whole situation is kind of indicative of the stalemate this organization finds itself in. In some ways it's a mistake to think that this is a bad situation, because it has primarily happened due to Meadows exceeding expectations and probably the same for Dickerson. Who knows, I can't really see a situation where some clarity develops. The most likely one would be going 2-4 out of the gate or something, which would kind of stick a fork in the team.

 

[JimmyTwoTimes]

Need the Cubs to keep beating up on the Cards and Brewers. MIL will likely get a WC, so at least the Cards. And Dodgers to take care of the 3 other teams we are chasing in their division.

2012 Pirates face the Reds in WC
2013 Giants
2014 Cubs

This year the Brewers to make it 3 division teams out of 4 tries. If that does happen, good thing is they dont have the CY winner like the Giants and Cubs did on the mound.

Have to make the most of out this "weaker" schedule the rest of this month. But August they play 5 series against teams they are chasing for a WC spot. It will come down to that. Not out of it yet, and still think they can sell off some of the vets we talked about(replaced with guys who are ready) while adding another arm and bat at the deadline. Sell and buy.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, it's hard to really know the angle to root for at this point, but it seems like the scary WC opponents would be Washington or maybe if somebody ends up with one of the Mets pitchers. I guess the Giants still have MadBum if they made a push. The Dodgers will run away with that division, and the Cubs will probably win ours fairly easily, but even if Milwaukee did, pretty much any other NL team in the WC game would be a true crapshoot, which still sucks but at least would be more or less a coin flip. Knowing our luck, even if we managed to surprise pretty much everyone, Atlanta or Philly would win the NL East and we'd have to face Scherzer.

Speaking of the Mets, as long as I'm injecting fantasy trade scenarios into this thread (like clockwork, now and in December), if we went the route of competing for a window that's now, next year, and maybe the one beyond, we might as well try to get into the mix for Thor. Certainly the Yankees could outgun us if they wanted, as could the Braves, but beyond that I'm not so sure.

It's not worth spending any mental energy on it since there's no way it'd happen, but Keller and Meadows are actually a decent cornerstone for a package at this point. If we hadn't collapsed so badly, maybe it'd be worth the psychic stress (but equally it'd never happen), since that's the kind of arm that could make a difference.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

For the sake of glancing ahead, here's what I'd guess needs to happen for a WC spot: 40-25 the rest of the way would give us 88 wins, which seems like what it would take. That's a pretty tall order, very hazily it's the pace we had to start the year or even a click above it. Dividing things into stretches that don't cut off mid-series:

First ten games: Cincy (3), Cleveland (3), Mets (4): 7-3 (7-3)

Not really the worst draw in the world to start out. Before this gets going too much, I'll say that I pretty much expect a series loss to the Reds, and the margin for error is slim enough that something like that will really put a damper on things, but supposing that doesn't happen, then 7-3 requires series wins and a split, or else dropping the Cleveland series and taking three of four from the Mets.

Next five games: Cubs (2), Cards (3): 4-1 (11-4)

Here's where we need a big swing. All five games are at home, where we are much better, and we've held our own vs both teams this year, largely. 4-1 is optimistic, and expectations in this little stretch will likely be dictated in part by whatever happens at the deadline (it's on the first game vs the Cubs here). This is also where we'd at least have a foothold in the WC race, as we'd be 6 over .500 and probably within 4 games of the spots.

Next nine games: Rockies (3), Giants (4), Twins (2): 6-3 (17-7)

This is a tough little stretch - all the games are on the road, and we have to deal with the dreaded 4 game series. 6-3 is again optimistic, and moreover this would cap off a 25 game stretch of really excellent baseball (and more if you look prior to the break), so somewhere between the five division games and this stretch would be where any hype starts to have some momentum.

Next ten games: Cubs (4), Braves (3), Brewers (3): 5-5 (22-12)

I went more "conservative" here, even though if my aggressively optimistic stretches from above are true, this is a stretch where it's tempting to go even more rose-colored. The Cubs and Braves series' are at home, and as I said above, we'd have a pretty firm foothold in the WC race at this point, so with the momentum, you would want to think that the young team would really start revving it up. Something crazy like 8-2 would mean a 25-10 stretch to start the second half, meaning that just a hair over .500 baseball the rest of the way would put us at around 90 wins, and depending on the Cubs' and Brewers' overall performances, probably inch us back into divisional relevance - with six games against the Brewers and four against the Cubs remaining in September.


--- This is already very long and insanely speculative, so I should probably cut it off, but I'll spin out the remainder of the season just for the sake of curiosity, trying to stick with the optimistic but not overly wild projections (by which I mean what we'd need to really do to end up with a 40-25 record, not what I think is going to happen)

Next nine games: Cards (3), Braves (3), Reds (3): 5-4 (27-16)

Again a little "conservative" in projecting to lose a series, but still optimistic in the sense that we can't really afford to have a 9-10 game stretch where we go 3-6 or something and give away whatever ground we've picked up. Certainly the makings for more optimism here, with 7-2 or something possible if you sweep the Reds and win the other two, but we're talking about over 40 games at this point and only two or three series losses or splits, so assuming a series loss is merely accounting for the inevitable at this point.

Next nine games: Marlins (3), Cardinals (3), Brewers (3): 5-4 (32-20)

Same as above - I'm just trying to be somewhat schematic, but assuming we were doing something close to what I'm laying out, when the time comes we'll be pointing at the Reds and Marlins series and saying we need 5-1 to make up for something, which would be a good bet.

Next six games: Royals (3), Brewers (3): 4-2 (36-22)

Gotta beat up on the Royals, and in laying this out, note that we have 9 games against the Brewers remaining. These three are the only home series.

Final seven games: Cubs (4), Reds (3): 4-3 (40-25)

All road games - split with the Cubs, who potentially have locked up the division, and win vs the Reds. Too abstract to say much about, but again assuming we make the surge I'm trying to map out, heading into the second of the Brewers series (the group two above this one), the dynamic is probably that we are locked into a battle with the Brewers and some other NL teams for WC spots, so the six Brewers games loom especially large, but it's conceivable that the Cubs could have fallen off their pace somewhat. The Cubs are 18 games above .500 right now, so they'd have to go 34-34 the rest of the way in order to finish with 90 wins. That'd be a collapse of sorts but not a free fall.


Ok, just to reiterate again, this isn't an attempt to make a bunch of harebrained predictions. Mainly I just wanted to map what it would take out for myself. There are probably other, and maybe even better, ways to carve it up, such as dividing up the number of games vs different kinds of opponents, and factoring in home vs road (I did this as I was going), in order to see the chunks of wins we need to grab, but I think what it amounts to is that 90 wins is feasible enough if you think this team can somehow find real consistency, and have two or three real spurts while avoiding any stretch that's too bad.

I genuinely don't have any idea what to expect. The team is largely built for consistent mediocrity, and has shown the kind of fire-off-wins ability that we need to get back into it more seriously, but in general, I don't believe this is feasible. I'm a broken record, but I think it basically comes down to the pitching. We need more of what we saw in the last stretch, and especially a very good performance from RichRod, Santana, Crick, and Vazquez, and then we'll at least have the foundation to sustain the surge when things don't go as perfectly as a homer fan would want them to, sitting in judgment on the night before the second half begins.

I really think the first 15 games are crucial. It's where I was most aggressive in catapulting us back into the thick of the WC race, and while it's possible that we could do something like what I laid out and then fall flat on our faces on that long road trip, I do really think those games will set the pace for whether we can pull a run off. It's tempting to be pretty optimistic, as we have 7/10 to start off vs bad teams, and then the second little stretch of 5 games are all at home, and would come while riding a pretty decent wave of momentum, so I'm putting what slivers of false hope I have remaining into those first two sets of games.

I and several others did this way back, and I haven't dug it up, but I'll still be somewhat optimistic and say that I think we'll end up going 35-30 to finish with 83 wins. While it does feel like total foolishness to even think about the WC race, I guess where the source of any optimism could come from is if you think this team can actually play .500 baseball for that long, then do you go the next step and think they can somehow find 5-6 wins somewhere? Short of Josh Bell turning into a totally different player than we've pretty much ever seen from him before, I don't think there's much of an analytic argument for how we'd come by 3-4 of those wins, but by whatever means, it's not a massively tall order. We're built to be about a 79 win team, so a safer guess would be 29-36 to finish with 77 wins or so.

All the ups and downs from earlier aside, the season is tremendously long, and we may have banished a lot of lingering specters with the series sweep. A good start may set a completely different tone for a young team, and in a sort of captain obvious sense, it's not really about the total path you took, but the steps remaining to the destination. In fact, to short circuit all these rambling words, I think to guess in a totally subjective way, it probably makes more sense to say that we'll really undercut this window I laid out, and finish with 72 wins (and 90 losses, which should be a housecleaning event), or that we'll actually make the real push, even if we finish with 89 wins and just miss it or something. In other words, to guess that whatever happens in these first 10, 15 games will really set the tone for a young team that's already been through so many peaks and valleys, and so the final stretch will be much more like 25-40 or 40-25 than the boring 32-33 or whatever.

 

[Return of the Paek]

DJ,

Look at the pathetic return for Machado, we aren’t getting anything of value for trading any of our vets, including Dickerson who is having a great year and is still an important piece (and under control for next year). I think NH should ride it out and if the wheels fall off, deal harrison and Mercer for nothing at the waivers deadline so we can get a look at Newman, Kramer, Elaine and George.

 

[ImporterExporter]

I loathe mediocre. Won't get a stud in the draft, won't contend, the Pirates more or less exist. That's it.

It's pathetic how much the deck is stacked against smaller market teams. When Manny Machado doesn't even return a top 3 prospect in a teams prospect pool, you have serious f***ing problems.

 

[JimmyTwoTimes]

I loathe mediocre. Won't get a stud in the draft, won't contend, the Pirates more or less exist. That's it.

It's pathetic how much the deck is stacked against smaller market teams. When Manny Machado doesn't even return a top 3 prospect in a teams prospect pool, you have serious ****ing problems.

Thats why smaller market teams have to go all in when they can. And Im sure NH regrets that during that 3 year stretch when we had our best chance at winning it all. They thought we could hang onto our prospects and continue to compete, should have just went for it all. Like the Astros did.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

In case anyone was excited for baseball, there's a big storm in Cincy and S-Rod is not only back, but in the starting lineup. Because I want to make this improbable run, I really hope he goes on a tear as he did in spurts prior to this season, but it's truly an insane way to begin this crucial stretch. Hurdle just doesn't give a f***.

 

[lordstanley91]

I don’t expect the Pirates to do much. They don’t have much to offer anyone, and honestly as long as Sean Rodriguez stays in Indy and they can sure up the bullpen, I think they’ll be fine.

Lol check tonight’s lineup. You really can’t make this shit up.

 

[DanielPlainview]

f***ing fire Hurdle. Now.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

We might even need a sweep in this Reds series. Against the Indians, we're facing Kluber, a very solid rookie in Shane Bieber, and Bauer. Gonna be pretty hard to do much more than scrape out a win.

Votto is apparently not starting tonight, so hopefully this game can get in, but playing Rodriguez over Harrison makes no sense unless Harrison is injured, and even then, Moroff is leaps and bounds a better option. It's just the height of arrogance.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Best way to follow up a 5 game sweep out of the break... put Serpico into the starting lineup

#Hurdled

 

[Winger for Hire]

To be fair, it's only 2 months of Machado.

Teams are getting smarter at deadline dealing when looking at a guy who is dead set on testing the open market. They were never going to get multiple Top 10 system guys.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah I don't think the Machado return was that bad to be honest. Teams have gotten more and more conservative with these kinds of trades, and Diaz looks like a player with solid everyday potential.

Game is starting at 9:55.

 

[gtpeli2]

Clint Hurdle is such a loser it's unreal. SeanRod...again?!?!?!! Hurdle is just a dumb person.

 

[JimmyTwoTimes]

This is where Taillon has to take over as an ace for the team. If they are going to compete for a WC spot.