OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Tanking underway

[ChaosAgent]

Nah we have a better team than most think. But we will just have to wait and see.

It's just so hard to have optimism on the position player side after what the non-Hayes, non-Stallings guys displayed this year.

The only other guy who met or exceeded expectations was Moran. Who may be a sell-high candidate himself this winter now that the perma-DH is on the horizon. EVERYONE else struggled. Of the guys who may be part of the future, I think Reynolds and Bell bounce back to average-ish starters (Bell to be traded next TDL) but the lack of progression of Tucker and outright regression of Newman is hard to stomach.

From a standpoint of the starting pitching, I feel we're close with some health luck and 1-2 signings. For the position players? A long way away. There may be some dudes quickly on the horizon next year with Swags, Oliva after this cup of Corona, Cruz and even a fast-tracked Gonzales. But that's a good, not great position player class (and assuming Cruz can even play next year which who knows).

 

[JimmyTwoTimes]

It's just so hard to have optimism on the position player side after what the non-Hayes, non-Stallings guys displayed this year.

The only other guy who met or exceeded expectations was Moran. Who may be a sell-high candidate himself this winter now that the perma-DH is on the horizon. EVERYONE else struggled. Of the guys who may be part of the future, I think Reynolds and Bell bounce back to average-ish starters (Bell to be traded next TDL) but the lack of progression of Tucker and outright regression of Newman is hard to stomach.

From a standpoint of the starting pitching, I feel we're close with some health luck and 1-2 signings. For the position players? A long way away. There may be some dudes quickly on the horizon next year with Swags, Oliva after this cup of Corona, Cruz and even a fast-tracked Gonzales. But that's a good, not great position player class (and assuming Cruz can even play next year which who knows).

You have to factor in how young players like Reynolds and Tucker are tho. Look at Gavin Lux. Batted .180 this year with an OPS of 68. He was worse at the plate than Tucker. Does that mean hes gonna bust? We see this all the time with young players. Starting off great.. Or the opposite. The ups and downs. Until they reach that certain age they put it all together.

As long as you see the signs of greatness in a player combined with their pedigree. Reynolds def falls into that category. Was great all throughout the minors...and his season last year was far too good to dismiss. I say he is at least a .280 hitter with the power that is good enough to make an impact. Was an XBH machine last year.

The fact that Reynolds, Newman, and Bell all had career lows at the same time to go with our injuries on our pitching staff is the main reason we are picking #1. And if this wasnt a 60 game season we would prob end up with 10th or so pick. Even with the start we had .

I feel like they put too much pressure on themselves early on thinking they needed to start off hot. Not realizing that with the 8 team playoff format, it was not gonna take much more than being a .500 team to get in.

Its no coincidence that once we were well out of it, the team started doing much better. And once the staff got healthy we have been great lately.

 

[ChaosAgent]

You have to factor in how young players like Reynolds and Tucker are tho. Look at Gavin Lux. Batted .180 this year with an OPS of 68. He was worse at the plate than Tucker. Does that mean hes gonna bust? We see this all the time with young players. Starting off great.. Or the opposite. The ups and downs. Until they reach that certain age they put it all together.

As long as you see the signs of greatness in a player combined with their pedigree. Reynolds def falls into that category. Was great all throughout the minors...and his season last year was far too good to dismiss. I say he is at least a .280 hitter with the power that is good enough to make an impact. Was an XBH machine last year.

The fact that Reynolds, Newman, and Bell all had career lows at the same time to go with our injuries on our pitching staff is the main reason we are picking #1. And if this wasnt a 60 game season we would prob end up with 10th or so pick. Even with the start we had .

I feel like they put too much pressure on themselves early on thinking they needed to start off hot. Not realizing that with the 8 team playoff format, it was not gonna take much more than being a .500 team to get in.

Its no coincidence that once we were well out of it, the team started doing much better. And once the staff got healthy we have been great lately.

The team definitely trended towards respectability late.

On Newman and Tucker - there have been questions about their bats throughout their ENTIRE journey through the minors. Tucker was a raw hitter and most of the optimism tied to him was his defense, character - and his hitting in the AFL a couple years ago. There were always questions about Newman's ability to make hard contact and drive the ball.

Reynolds profiled as an average MLB starter who had a great rookie year - upgrading his stock - and a miserable sophomore year. I think he once again profiles as an average MLB starter.

All in all, this season has hurt the stock of Newman, Tucker and Reynolds moving forward. And getting 2 above-average starters out of that group of 3 guys was part of any scenario where the Pirates were competitive again in the next 2-3 years. I like our prospect group especially if Cruz is still in it, but some of the pieces have to already be there at the MLB level.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I think it's worth having a sober outlook while also recognizing that this year's results are all kinds of skewed due to the small sample sizes and siloed competition bubbles on top of the weird preparation/interruption with the pandemic. Far be it from me to express caution about Hayes, because I've long been vocal that I think he'll be a star, but I also doubt he has an MVP season next year.

A lot of question marks remain and I expect a fair bit of activity over the winter with still a lot of question marks heading into the season. I think it will be more or less another "building" year, unless we really pull off a shocker and spend with some "moderate aggression" in a market that might become flooded due to leaguewide austerity/collusion (we won't).

I'm optimistic Polanco's hard contact rate foretells a return to average production with a bit more power, but I know I'm basically the only one at this point among thread regulars. I'm also optimistic about guys like Alford and Evans, though obviously both have only sparse track records and we're going by tools. They need to stay healthy.

I don't particularly want to get into specific players at this point, until we start to see how the winter is going to shake out. At the general level the only thing I'd insist on is that we need more decisiveness and aggression out of Cherington, especially now that Hayes has burst on the scene. His relative hands off approach allowed him and the new front office to assess things in at least some regard, and thanks in part to further bad luck, they've also probably been awarded a first overall pick in a draft with college talent at the very top. Some of his small moves seem intriguing, while others were a roadblock. He needs to continue separating wheat from chaff this winter and make some decisive moves which enable guys to still have a shot next year while clearly planning and building for a horizon that looks like it starts more in 2022.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Happy last day of the "season" or whatever we want to call this year.

 

[TNT87]

 

[cookthebooks]

jamo seems like such a good dude. i really hope he somehow still gets to have the career he deserves

 

[cookthebooks]

wrong thread

 

[cookthebooks]

7 consecutive hits for ke'bryan...

 

[Jaded-Fan]

His entire first contract will be paying the families of the victims.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

7 consecutive hits for ke'bryan...

Make that 8. What a debut.

 

[Rakell67]

I havn’t watched the Pirates at all this season but why is their hitting (Aside from Hayes and Moran) so atrocious?

 

[DJ Spinoza]

With Hayes utterly demolishing the league, admittedly in a "short" sample, I wonder if he may have his final prospect rating bumped a little bit. I suppose he may graduate, but since he'll be ROY eligible next year, he really shouldn't, technically speaking. Fangraphs had him as a 60 FV before scaling it back to 55 with concerns that the tools might have leveled off when he didn't put up over the top stats in the inflated-ball atmosphere of 2019 AAA. I think it's safe to say he's back on track for a 60 outcome as a projection.

I believe Kiley once said there's a 1/6 chance the timeline for Hayes is superstar, and we may be seeing that timeline now. We said it before when he first came up, but teams will be able to attack him after there's more tape on him. Even with those growing pains anticipated, I don't see any real obvious holes in his game or his swing. He's getting the power by smashing the cover off the ball with every hit, and we've seen him repeatedly make adjustments on the fly, in game against good pitchers. That's going to be hard to really attack for pitchers.

 

[cookthebooks]

imagine if he goes 4 for 4 and has to wait until next year to take a run at the record lol

 

[ChaosAgent]

Brubaker has sharp downward plane on that fastball...he really misses low with it a lot.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Watching Oliver Perez after all these years.

Never forget 2004. Perez and Bay baybe!

 

[ChaosAgent]

If Trevor Williams starts in the rotation next year I'll be actively upset.

 

[wheelz87]

Watching Oliver Perez after all these years.

Never forget 2004. Perez and Bay baybe!

Ollie Perez was so electrifying back in the day. God I loved watching him pitch.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I think the fastball is the key to where Brubaker can settle. He has the offspeed stuff to be a dominant multi-inning RP. I haven't paid close attention, but in his recent starts, it's seemed like he can at least keep hitters somewhat off balance and look like someone who has to be given a chance to continue pitching out of the rotation.

I don't hate the idea of keeping Williams around as depth, but there's no room for him in the rotation barring and injury or multiple trades. Even if Musgrove is gone, Keller, Kuhl, Taillon, Brubaker, and Brault should all be firmly ahead of him.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Ollie Perez was so electrifying back in the day. God I loved watching him pitch.

Some of the starters that came through in the mid-DL years were interesting. Kip Wells had good stuff for that time. Plus he hit like a 460 foot homer as a pitcher lol. Perez had great talent. Oquendo/Snell had talent but some mental issues. Duke had a great run. Gorzellany should have been better than he ultimately was.

 

[ImporterExporter]

With Hayes utterly demolishing the league, admittedly in a "short" sample, I wonder if he may have his final prospect rating bumped a little bit. I suppose he may graduate, but since he'll be ROY eligible next year, he really shouldn't, technically speaking. Fangraphs had him as a 60 FV before scaling it back to 55 with concerns that the tools might have leveled off when he didn't put up over the top stats in the inflated-ball atmosphere of 2019 AAA. I think it's safe to say he's back on track for a 60 outcome as a projection.

I believe Kiley once said there's a 1/6 chance the timeline for Hayes is superstar, and we may be seeing that timeline now. We said it before when he first came up, but teams will be able to attack him after there's more tape on him. Even with those growing pains anticipated, I don't see any real obvious holes in his game or his swing. He's getting the power by smashing the cover off the ball with every hit, and we've seen him repeatedly make adjustments on the fly, in game against good pitchers. That's going to be hard to really attack for pitchers.

The most impressive aspect to Hayes beyond the exit velocities is the fact he's going up the middle and opposite field for a lot of these hits, including the long balls. He doesn't pull many pitches.

He get squared to the ball quickly despite having a fairly open stance.

Even in my wildest dreams I couldn't see Hayes being this good at the dish, at least this early. We all know there will be a slump, but it's hard not to get very excited by his prospects moving forward. With his glove, if he can continue to hit the ball hard, he's going to challenge for hardware.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

The most impressive aspect to Hayes beyond the exit velocities is the fact he's going up the middle and opposite field for a lot of these hits, including the long balls. He doesn't pull many pitches.

He get squared to the ball quickly despite having a fairly open stance.

Even in my wildest dreams I couldn't see Hayes being this good at the dish, at least this early. We all know there will be a slump, but it's hard not to get very excited by his prospects moving forward. With his glove, if he can continue to hit the ball hard, he's going to challenge for hardware.

Yeah, the slight change to the batting stance has really let him attack with his compact swing and he just has the ability to control most of the plate. There's not really a lot of holes for pitchers to attack, and he's basically not selling out for power specifically as much as he is taking what's there for him consistently. The fact that the HRs for the most part are just line drives that carry is pretty encouraging in terms of him keeping the high AVG/OBP plus 20-25 HRs pretty easily. Add the defense and speed at it's a 5 WAR+ profile.

 

[ChaosAgent]

******

Reyes really has light-tower power.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, a bummer for Brubaker, but still an ok showing from him on the whole. I think he can have solid mid/back end potential. Him and Brault as your #4 and #5 could work out ok. The question is the upside you'll be able to get out of your top end, especially if Musgrove is dealt.

 

[JimmyTwoTimes]

Also with Hayes, even when he does slump he will still be providing gold glove D at 3rd. We forget how much that is going to help our pitching in itself. Then with SS and Gonzales at 2B in a few years. Teams will be pulling everything to the right side.

At SS, whether its Tucker, Peguero, or Bae....they all have great D. Better than Newman. He will be more of utility if he can get back to his last year performance. Gonzales will lock up 2B. And I still say Tucker will start to hit good enough to be our starting SS but even if not there is Peguero and Bae.

We have so many to choose from we will likely be trading someone. Also Oneil Cruz. If we add a RF , maybe Cruz is the one who sticks at SS. A 6'7 SS who has an 80 arm? We will find out next year but its weird they still had him at SS this year at their camp. Especially with all of the other ones we have.


This team will not only be better at the plate in the next few years but also on D which will help out our pitching.