OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Tanking underway

[Scandale du Jour]

Last few posts:

Position player pitching alert!

I also want the Pens to get the pick to troll the whole league. I have waned in my hockey interest, but that might kick start me again.

There's basically no way that Rocker wouldn't sign. Even if he doesn't go number 1, he's going to go in the top handful of picks and he'd be a senior if he went back to school I think, with no real upshot. The more interesting question is going to be whether or not there's a somewhat normal NCAA season in 2021 in order to really get a clearer picture of the top draft prospects.

I fully understand the hype behind Rocker and he's currently my pick, but just from sniffing around the early boards, I don't think he's quite as consensus as it comes. If he has a great performance, the consensus likely sticks, but I think there have been times where his velo dips, in which case there's some worry because there's really no physical projection with him. Leiter is a much different situation because he really needs some looks to solidify his reputation, and he's also a sophomore next year rather than a junior. If he really has three plus pitches and one of them is the fastball up to 97-98 and another is an elite spin rate breaker, that's a consensus top pick in today's MLB.

Then Jaden Hill is a step or two behind both, but has projectability. I doubt he's totally in the mix for #1 but it wouldn't be too crazy if he has a healthy season. Some people really like Faban and surely one of the prep positon players will stand out, but I'm hoping we have top-3 pick at worst so that we can definitely get one of the pitchers. Ideally a top two pick, since right now it would be a dream to lock in Rocker or Leiter.

This is a very good draft to have a Top 3 pick, as DJ has pointed out.

Rocker, IMO, is a complete organizational changer with his fire and talent. I think he not only gives you that premier starter ceiling, but even if he "only" becomes your #2 he can have the AJ/Cutch effect on the team. Leiter probably has a slightly higher talent ceiling, but that's splitting hairs between perennial All-Star and perennial Cy Young contender, and might be more akin to Cole where he lets the talent and compete level do the talking and let's other set the clubhouse/team tone.

I don't know enough about Hill to really get into him, other than there is early injury concern, but had a deadly FB/SL combo.

And expanding to hitters, Jud Fabian is one that can also make a push for 1.1 with a 5 tool ceiling and sparkling Cape Cod stats. Matt Mclain probably won't push for 1.1, but he could be the 2021's Nick Gonzalez.

Or if you want the big plusplus, Austin Hendricks type power, Brady House has that powerful, lofty swing that would slide beautifully into a corner infield position when he bulks out of SS.

So what I'm saying is that 1.1 would be ideal, anything in the Top 5 or 6 has players that can slot nicely into a cornerstone building block.

It’s that kind of year. Poor guy.

Honestly I have ceased caring about pretty much anything other than Kuhl's appearances, with Keller and Burdi hurt now, and Hayes buried in Altoona, but this stuff with Evans is like example number one of what it's like to be a Pirates fan. We can't even have some meaningless fun with a journeyman playing well for six weeks.

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[Winger for Hire]

Pirates/Cards series seems to be in jeopardy

 

[Big McLargehuge]

I know that there was a seismic organizational overhaul and all, but I still can't help but imagine only the worst case scenarios if we did somehow wind up in a position to draft Rocker. I can't help but see him blowing his arm out in a bullpen session after signing and then being turned into a pitch to contact pitcher with middling results who we trade for a collage of obviously useless crap so that Rocker can evolve into Gyarados with the Red Sox or Yankees.

Or he could just always refuse to sign. If Mark Appel didn't bust to all shit I think that'd be a likelier option. Dude still got his massive bonus despite taking the risk, but one bonus is a pittance compared to how much you'd expect a collegiate pitcher with ace potential to earn. Either way there's no scenario in which Rocker falls as far as Appel did to the Pirates that year. If he's picked #1, he's gonna sign. Nobody wants to be compared to Mark Appel and nobody wants to turn down #1 pick money just to re-roll with no guarantee of a better option coming up the next year.

Apropos of nothing: I hate that every damn time I see Rocker's name John Rocker's face pops into my mind and I want to punch it.

 

[cookthebooks]

what a bummer for me evans. seems like the kind of thing that ruins polanco too

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Honestly I think with the new Pirates front office, if anything, assuming we had 1.1, we might take a very long look at Leiter. This isn't a knock on Rocker but Leiter's metrics may elevate him just a touch, even if the entire package isn't there in every single game he plays. I think that's why it's important to see them pitch in a relatively normal season, because if the performance is there from Leiter, I think he could usurp the spot if an analytics-heavy team is drafting 1.1.

Rocker definitely has that franchise-type quality to him and I think a lot of people are expecting him to be an elite player, but I don't know if the consensus hype has quite arrived at generational-type talent. Like a lot of frontline MLB prospects, he could go in that direction, and my read right now is that Rocker and Leiter are as highly touted as any young players coming up through the draft.

I think, but I'm not absolutely sure, that the season up to the draft is important for solidifying how much hype guys will have. There are always guys who are assumed to be the very top of the draft and often the more generational types are already solidified at this point in time. Fabian is someone who is a darkhorse to be in the mix, but I think he won't best either of the pitchers.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

 

[Winger for Hire]

 

[DJ Spinoza]

This one has been more of the same, but a Tigers sweep is good to bank since they are a team that could be competitive with us for a top pick. I'd rather just gut it out and take it on the chin if it means we solidify our position even further.

I get some frustrations with this team, but I wouldn't read too much into the results. The pitching has been so utterly decimated by injuries that it sort of skews anything else. This isn't a good team even with everybody healthy, but the injuries are parodic at this point.

 

[TNT87]

 

[ImporterExporter]

 

[The Great Mighty Poo]

....There's a blast from the past.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

At some point the Cardinals should be forced to play with minor leaguers or else forfeit. The next time they play it could be their 6th game of the season vs some other teams 21st or something. It's out of control, though I'm glad we aren't picking up 3 automatic wins. Scoreboard watching, the Royals might be picking up yet another win, and Seattle is up on the Rockies.

There are some other teams, but we're two weeks in and looking at roughly a win total of 3 for us and 5-6 for the next closest. That's a firm start. It seems like Seattle might be our biggest competition going forward, and you hope their division is weak enough that they will be able to grind out some wins, along with Texas and LAA. Miami, Baltimore, and Kansas City are all pretty bad so it's good that two of them have started out really well and Kansas City has banked more wins than you'd expect soon. Losing the Kansas City series during Sept 11-13 might be a real lockdown moment in terms of picks 1-3.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Just some quick, back of the napkin math to put the obvious more into perspective. Setting aside these postponed Cardinals games, there are 24 games before we have a series with the Royals. After that series, there are 14 games, and presumably 17 if you figure our Cardinals games will be made up with a monstrous set of doubleheaders.

Even optimistically, if we scratch out a series win and avoid sweeps, we're hading into that Royals series with something like a 13-27 record. The bottom could fall out for one of our competitors, but it's hard to envision even that record being too far out of last place at that point in the season. Even if you just flip a switch and decide we'll randomly be somewhat good, a 14-10 stretch would still have us at 16-23, which would likely be right in striking distance to sink into top-5 pick territory when we stop magically playing above .500 ball.

The bottom has fallen out for enough of a stretch of games to give us a leg up. I can see us assembling some wins and maybe even stringing 3 or 4 together if the right guys get clicking and we shake out of the long cloud this season has been under, but it seems pretty unlikely. Even when we put together a good start and some offense, the bullpen is basically 50-50 what you're going to get. If I were betting, I would take the easy and obvious bet that we're careening to the first overall pick, assuming there's no shutdown or other shenanigans.

 

[Mario_is_BACK!!]

Milwaukee Milkman.

Milwaukee Milkman.





















Milwaukee Milkman.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

The hits just keep coming: Tank for Kumar Rocker? For the last-place Pirates, it's not that simple

Tldr; for those who don't have an Athletic subscription: Manfred can do whatever he wants with the draft order because of some stupid rule about the season being less than 81 games. There's no indication from MLB yet what they've decided, and while the status quo seems to make the most sense if a full season happens, there's no guarantee.

I am expecting the worst. Manfred's defining trait as a GM besides total incompetence has been to drum up sideshow nonsense with no precedent at all, so there's no way he can be trusted to just follow the status quo. The worst thing imaginable would be for this franchise to have unraveled in the way that it did, have every single player get injured and the entire bevy of prospects have a shortened year, and then have some weighted lottery where the sub-.500 Reds leapfrog us and get Kumar Rocker while we end up with the 6th or 8th pick.

 

[cookthebooks]

that seems pretty likely, just like how the pens will probably undeservedly win their draft lottery. the universe remains the universe

 

[ImporterExporter]

The hits just keep coming: Tank for Kumar Rocker? For the last-place Pirates, it's not that simple

Tldr; for those who don't have an Athletic subscription: Manfred can do whatever he wants with the draft order because of some stupid rule about the season being less than 81 games. There's no indication from MLB yet what they've decided, and while the status quo seems to make the most sense if a full season happens, there's no guarantee.

I am expecting the worst. Manfred's defining trait as a GM besides total incompetence has been to drum up sideshow nonsense with no precedent at all, so there's no way he can be trusted to just follow the status quo. The worst thing imaginable would be for this franchise to have unraveled in the way that it did, have every single player get injured and the entire bevy of prospects have a shortened year, and then have some weighted lottery where the sub-.500 Reds leapfrog us and get Kumar Rocker while we end up with the 6th or 8th pick.

Riots.

 

[The Great Mighty Poo]

...It's like they guy would want to be in this pathetic excuse for a professional organization by choice any how.

 

[Mr. T]

Apropos of nothing: I hate that every damn time I see Rocker's name John Rocker's face pops into my mind and I want to punch it.

 

[DanielPlainview]

Jurassic Park and The Lost World are on Netflix for anyone needing something less depressing to watch

 

[USMC607]

Sad face....

 

[The Great Mighty Poo]

View attachment 360285

Sad face....

 

[DJ Spinoza]

It would be really nice to somehow walk away from this season with Frazier, but I'm honestly unsure if we'll have any trade chips tradable for... whatever. I guess Kela will be back tomorrow, and so possibly him and Frazier, but I doubt we'll be able to pull anything exciting. A better bet is that we might make PTBNL trades and take some fliers on low minors guys who aren't currently in the player pool.

It's too early to start looking ahead to next year, but it certainly seems like we could be primed for a much longer rebuild. The current plan, after all of the decimating injuries, is basically for whichever guys to audition for some role in a more competitive team starting more in 2022 than 2021.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

We're gonna need a new tank captain.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

3HRs for the Buccos already!

We all know they will end up losing the game anyway, but I will at least have some fun for a few innings