OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Tanking underway

Discussion in 'Pittsburgh Penguins' started by Scandale du Jour, Aug 9, 2020.

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  1. Scandale du Jour JordanStaal#1Fan

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  2. Winger for Hire Praise Beebo

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    Pirates/Cards series seems to be in jeopardy
     
  3. Big McLargehuge Well, boys, this is it.

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    I know that there was a seismic organizational overhaul and all, but I still can't help but imagine only the worst case scenarios if we did somehow wind up in a position to draft Rocker. I can't help but see him blowing his arm out in a bullpen session after signing and then being turned into a pitch to contact pitcher with middling results who we trade for a collage of obviously useless crap so that Rocker can evolve into Gyarados with the Red Sox or Yankees.

    Or he could just always refuse to sign. If Mark Appel didn't bust to all shit I think that'd be a likelier option. Dude still got his massive bonus despite taking the risk, but one bonus is a pittance compared to how much you'd expect a collegiate pitcher with ace potential to earn. Either way there's no scenario in which Rocker falls as far as Appel did to the Pirates that year. If he's picked #1, he's gonna sign. Nobody wants to be compared to Mark Appel and nobody wants to turn down #1 pick money just to re-roll with no guarantee of a better option coming up the next year.

    Apropos of nothing: I hate that every damn time I see Rocker's name John Rocker's face pops into my mind and I want to punch it.
     
  4. cookthebooks Registered User

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    what a bummer for me evans. seems like the kind of thing that ruins polanco too
     
  5. DJ Spinoza Registered User

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    Honestly I think with the new Pirates front office, if anything, assuming we had 1.1, we might take a very long look at Leiter. This isn't a knock on Rocker but Leiter's metrics may elevate him just a touch, even if the entire package isn't there in every single game he plays. I think that's why it's important to see them pitch in a relatively normal season, because if the performance is there from Leiter, I think he could usurp the spot if an analytics-heavy team is drafting 1.1.

    Rocker definitely has that franchise-type quality to him and I think a lot of people are expecting him to be an elite player, but I don't know if the consensus hype has quite arrived at generational-type talent. Like a lot of frontline MLB prospects, he could go in that direction, and my read right now is that Rocker and Leiter are as highly touted as any young players coming up through the draft.

    I think, but I'm not absolutely sure, that the season up to the draft is important for solidifying how much hype guys will have. There are always guys who are assumed to be the very top of the draft and often the more generational types are already solidified at this point in time. Fabian is someone who is a darkhorse to be in the mix, but I think he won't best either of the pitchers.
     
  6. DJ Spinoza Registered User

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  7. Winger for Hire Praise Beebo

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  8. DJ Spinoza Registered User

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    This one has been more of the same, but a Tigers sweep is good to bank since they are a team that could be competitive with us for a top pick. I'd rather just gut it out and take it on the chin if it means we solidify our position even further.

    I get some frustrations with this team, but I wouldn't read too much into the results. The pitching has been so utterly decimated by injuries that it sort of skews anything else. This isn't a good team even with everybody healthy, but the injuries are parodic at this point.
     
  9. TNT87 PWR UP

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  10. ImporterExporter "You're a boring old man"

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  11. Macho Mandalorian THIS IS THE WAY! YEAH!

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    ....There's a blast from the past.
     
  12. DJ Spinoza Registered User

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    At some point the Cardinals should be forced to play with minor leaguers or else forfeit. The next time they play it could be their 6th game of the season vs some other teams 21st or something. It's out of control, though I'm glad we aren't picking up 3 automatic wins. Scoreboard watching, the Royals might be picking up yet another win, and Seattle is up on the Rockies.

    There are some other teams, but we're two weeks in and looking at roughly a win total of 3 for us and 5-6 for the next closest. That's a firm start. It seems like Seattle might be our biggest competition going forward, and you hope their division is weak enough that they will be able to grind out some wins, along with Texas and LAA. Miami, Baltimore, and Kansas City are all pretty bad so it's good that two of them have started out really well and Kansas City has banked more wins than you'd expect soon. Losing the Kansas City series during Sept 11-13 might be a real lockdown moment in terms of picks 1-3.
     
  13. DJ Spinoza Registered User

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    Just some quick, back of the napkin math to put the obvious more into perspective. Setting aside these postponed Cardinals games, there are 24 games before we have a series with the Royals. After that series, there are 14 games, and presumably 17 if you figure our Cardinals games will be made up with a monstrous set of doubleheaders.

    Even optimistically, if we scratch out a series win and avoid sweeps, we're hading into that Royals series with something like a 13-27 record. The bottom could fall out for one of our competitors, but it's hard to envision even that record being too far out of last place at that point in the season. Even if you just flip a switch and decide we'll randomly be somewhat good, a 14-10 stretch would still have us at 16-23, which would likely be right in striking distance to sink into top-5 pick territory when we stop magically playing above .500 ball.

    The bottom has fallen out for enough of a stretch of games to give us a leg up. I can see us assembling some wins and maybe even stringing 3 or 4 together if the right guys get clicking and we shake out of the long cloud this season has been under, but it seems pretty unlikely. Even when we put together a good start and some offense, the bullpen is basically 50-50 what you're going to get. If I were betting, I would take the easy and obvious bet that we're careening to the first overall pick, assuming there's no shutdown or other shenanigans.
     
  14. Mario_is_BACK!! ACK! ACK ACK! ACK!!!

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    Milwaukee Milkman.
     
  15. DJ Spinoza Registered User

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    The hits just keep coming: Tank for Kumar Rocker? For the last-place Pirates, it's not that simple

    Tldr; for those who don't have an Athletic subscription: Manfred can do whatever he wants with the draft order because of some stupid rule about the season being less than 81 games. There's no indication from MLB yet what they've decided, and while the status quo seems to make the most sense if a full season happens, there's no guarantee.

    I am expecting the worst. Manfred's defining trait as a GM besides total incompetence has been to drum up sideshow nonsense with no precedent at all, so there's no way he can be trusted to just follow the status quo. The worst thing imaginable would be for this franchise to have unraveled in the way that it did, have every single player get injured and the entire bevy of prospects have a shortened year, and then have some weighted lottery where the sub-.500 Reds leapfrog us and get Kumar Rocker while we end up with the 6th or 8th pick.
     
  16. cookthebooks Registered User

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    that seems pretty likely, just like how the pens will probably undeservedly win their draft lottery. the universe remains the universe
     
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  17. ImporterExporter "You're a boring old man"

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    Riots.
     
  18. Macho Mandalorian THIS IS THE WAY! YEAH!

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    ...It's like they guy would want to be in this pathetic excuse for a professional organization by choice any how.
     
  19. Mr. T Registered User

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  20. KesselMania Registered User

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    Jurassic Park and The Lost World are on Netflix for anyone needing something less depressing to watch
     
  21. USMC607 Registered User

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  22. Macho Mandalorian THIS IS THE WAY! YEAH!

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  23. DJ Spinoza Registered User

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    It would be really nice to somehow walk away from this season with Frazier, but I'm honestly unsure if we'll have any trade chips tradable for... whatever. I guess Kela will be back tomorrow, and so possibly him and Frazier, but I doubt we'll be able to pull anything exciting. A better bet is that we might make PTBNL trades and take some fliers on low minors guys who aren't currently in the player pool.

    It's too early to start looking ahead to next year, but it certainly seems like we could be primed for a much longer rebuild. The current plan, after all of the decimating injuries, is basically for whichever guys to audition for some role in a more competitive team starting more in 2022 than 2021.
     
  24. DJ Spinoza Registered User

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    We're gonna need a new tank captain.
     
  25. Scandale du Jour JordanStaal#1Fan

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    3HRs for the Buccos already!

    We all know they will end up losing the game anyway, but I will at least have some fun for a few innings :laugh:
     
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