OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Play On, Garth

[DJ Spinoza]

Ramirez is giving up tons of HRs. I'm not watching closely, but Tucker just hit one out of the stadium.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Tucker just walked it off. He has a nice swing from the left side, I haven't seen it as much.

 

[DanielPlainview]

Maybe instead of trying to have Cervelli learn 1B, they give Moran some time there. I think Cervelli is a concussion away from hanging it up

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I think that might not be a bad idea, at least to spot Bell. I'm also sort of fine with Cervelli sometimes doing it. The big decision there is whether we want to try and keep Osuna around. Obviously if Bell gets hurt, we're in a bad situation, and Osuna has at least shown a lot of flashes of being productive and useful off the bench before. But I don't know that it's enough to keep him in the mix.

I think with Cervelli, we're basically just riding it out. It's pretty clear that he both knows the risks and is fully committed to continuing to catch. In a lot of ways, it's either that or retire for performance reasons, since I doubt he fits in as a DH or otherwise, even if he has solid OBP numbers. You almost want to say that he seems like the kind of guy who might want to try and win it all ASAP and retire on the early side, but who knows what he wants. I think he will still get work as at minimum a backup, since when the health is there, there's real upside, but it's a ticking bomb. Hopefully he doesn't have another concussion scare. It seems inevitable.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

BTW, game is on TV again, Williams is getting his first action, and will be followed by Keller. Would be nice if Keller can put together a smooth outing. Have to assume the first round of cuts are imminent.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Williams won't have a pretty stat line, but stuff-wise he looks totally fine to me. Had some fastballs up to 94, moving his pitches all around, and also seems to be utilizing a new curveball, in this game featured it quite a bit. Had some very good ones, and some which hitters put really good swings on. Interesting development.

Keller... I'd say mixed bag at best. Both the velocity and the control seemed to swing back and forth. Had some very nice breaking pitches, and the velocity did get up to 95, 97, but he also got hammered more than once. He looks like he still has a good amount of things to work on. Only spring training and a lot can change in the season, but based on eye test I am not counting for much from him outside of a cup of coffee. I'll go out on a limb and say even if he earns a callup with some stellar AAA performances and a vacancy in Pittsburgh, it's going to be a touch and go debut, as with most rookies. He looks noticeably not as polished as Taillon, for example, which isn't a fair comparison given that Taillon was much earlier when he made his debut.

Mostly not the best day all around, it seems. Rookie Davis got touched up in the other SS game, almost no hits from anybody.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Williams won't have a pretty stat line, but stuff-wise he looks totally fine to me. Had some fastballs up to 94, moving his pitches all around, and also seems to be utilizing a new curveball, in this game featured it quite a bit. Had some very good ones, and some which hitters put really good swings on. Interesting development.

Keller... I'd say mixed bag at best. Both the velocity and the control seemed to swing back and forth. Had some very nice breaking pitches, and the velocity did get up to 95, 97, but he also got hammered more than once. He looks like he still has a good amount of things to work on. Only spring training and a lot can change in the season, but based on eye test I am not counting for much from him outside of a cup of coffee. I'll go out on a limb and say even if he earns a callup with some stellar AAA performances and a vacancy in Pittsburgh, it's going to be a touch and go debut, as with most rookies. He looks noticeably not as polished as Taillon, for example, which isn't a fair comparison given that Taillon was much earlier when he made his debut.

Mostly not the best day all around, it seems. Rookie Davis got touched up in the other SS game, almost no hits from anybody.

I'm going to call it based on AAA and early returns at the MLB: I think Keller is headed for bust-dom. Call it an overreaction if you'd like, but it's not like the hit rate of a pitching prospect is above 50% anyway. I think he's going to be on the bad side of that coinflip.

DJ feel free to make this your sig if Keller does pan out in a material way.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I think it's an overreaction... he's repeated a similar pattern each step of the way, and there isn't enough sample size in AAA for me to be too concerned yet. There's maybe some medium-level cause for concern, but I think it's more about his ceiling than floor right now. To me, the biggest things to try and monitor when he's in AAA this year are going to be the fastball + its velocity (sort of the same I suppose, but I'd keep them distinct), and whether he can develop a useable changeup. Those are the tools that will either give him the potential to eventually be a frontline starter, or keep his target more along the lines of a viable MLB starter.

I consider it a bit of a tradeoff all things considered within the system. Hayes has made an impression where he looks destined for stardom, and not too far in the future, either. Frankly I'm not quite sure we'll get a better ace-type pitcher under the current regime than Taillon. This is a whole other can of worms, but Searage is going to continue down the path he's forged, by all available signs. The fact that we've brought in some more curveball pitchers is a good sign, but I'm not sure that coaxing frontline prospect talent is his strong suit. It's certainly going to be a near impossibility if the fastball isn't a plus pitch, but that's basically the case with anybody.

Anyways, it's risky to read way too much into a lot of meaningless bullshit. I think we can take some very light notes on some prospects (and as many note, on this front, Hartlieb has managed to stand out as someone who has good potential for the bullpen in another year or two), and maybe some clear affirmations regarding what most of us expected anyways re: #5 SP and SS. We're too early to try and start making some bold predictions for the season, and I shouldn't be even bringing this up considering my random Newman ST prediction, but the keys all still rest with some obvious players. There's probably some dumb scenario where Bell is a true superstar, Archer mostly returns to form, and we still give away some games because we have Rookie Davis starting for us over the span of 2 or 3 weeks, but I tend to think overall the shortcut moves we've made won't destroy us.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Kang with his 4th homerun of the spring and Archer looks like he's dealing out here. Cervelli also hit a homer too.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, the word on Archer is very encouraging so far. Lots of speed separation, sounds like the slider has good bite, and he's touching 97. If he can live more at 96-98, I think he can really be effective – that makes up for the lack of variety. To some extent a slider guy is always going to have some HR problems, because it's just a given that you will hang some, but if he can overpower with the fastball more, it can curb down some of the basepath trouble he gets into at times.

I also think it's pretty interesting to hear that he's throwing a curve. It seems like the approach is really emphasizing the curve all around: getting Lyles, Williams has added one, targeting Kela, etc. I wonder how much Musgrove will feature one too.

Btw, Taillon was announced to make his debut in a live game next Sunday at 1pm vs the Red Sox. It will be on TV.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Not listening anymore, but looks like Burdi got some solid work in against a couple of MLBers. He seems pretty much like a lock to make the bullpen this year, and maybe could surprise a bit. I think they should be moderately cautious with him – if they think he still needs some refinement, then getting regular innings in AAA after he's cleared the minimum service time makes more sense long term, but at least based on the spring, it seems like he could certainly contribute in middle relief right now.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I think it's an overreaction... he's repeated a similar pattern each step of the way, and there isn't enough sample size in AAA for me to be too concerned yet. There's maybe some medium-level cause for concern, but I think it's more about his ceiling than floor right now. To me, the biggest things to try and monitor when he's in AAA this year are going to be the fastball + its velocity (sort of the same I suppose, but I'd keep them distinct), and whether he can develop a useable changeup. Those are the tools that will either give him the potential to eventually be a frontline starter, or keep his target more along the lines of a viable MLB starter.

I consider it a bit of a tradeoff all things considered within the system. Hayes has made an impression where he looks destined for stardom, and not too far in the future, either. Frankly I'm not quite sure we'll get a better ace-type pitcher under the current regime than Taillon. This is a whole other can of worms, but Searage is going to continue down the path he's forged, by all available signs. The fact that we've brought in some more curveball pitchers is a good sign, but I'm not sure that coaxing frontline prospect talent is his strong suit. It's certainly going to be a near impossibility if the fastball isn't a plus pitch, but that's basically the case with anybody.

Anyways, it's risky to read way too much into a lot of meaningless bull****. I think we can take some very light notes on some prospects (and as many note, on this front, Hartlieb has managed to stand out as someone who has good potential for the bullpen in another year or two), and maybe some clear affirmations regarding what most of us expected anyways re: #5 SP and SS. We're too early to try and start making some bold predictions for the season, and I shouldn't be even bringing this up considering my random Newman ST prediction, but the keys all still rest with some obvious players. There's probably some dumb scenario where Bell is a true superstar, Archer mostly returns to form, and we still give away some games because we have Rookie Davis starting for us over the span of 2 or 3 weeks, but I tend to think overall the shortcut moves we've made won't destroy us.

Yeah, I'm just saying that picking a pitching prospect to not pan out isn't really bold. Only about half actually do, and a fraction of that touch the upside ("#1 starter," "#2-3 starter" etc that they show in scouting reports) I like Keller but I'd rather lose him than Hayes, Tucker or Cruz right now. He's been pretty bad for a while now.

 

[DanielPlainview]

Bad Kingham today. Not encouraging

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, this fifth starter thing is shaping up to be a nightmare. I had/still have some hope in Kingham, but Gio on a one year deal is offensively obvious. I can't imagine he'd sit out, and I also can't imagine anybody is going to shell out more than a two year deal to get him. If that's what it takes... it solves a potentially big problem and at least in theory really solidifies a pitching staff.

I said before that I don't see much that can be done which is very impactful, but to me, this non-move seems awfully likely to be the difference between a 78 win season and late August relevance.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Some NH analysis

 

[DJ Spinoza]

He needs to take a page from Kela. Jesus...

I'm gonna say it: both things are gonna be bad. Gonzalez is not going to do more than slap some singles occasionally, and he'll make some very nice defensive plays as well as enough botches to not really make him be anything special. Lyles probably can work for 5-6 somewhat ok innings, but I have real questions about long-term durability, and I bet Kingham gets sniped if he doesn't make the team, which means the replacement is either going to be Brault, Davis, of Sledgers, unless maybe Brubaker can get a shot.

At least there's a game on TV today and Taillon is pitching.

 

[ChaosAgent]

He needs to take a page from Kela. Jesus...

I'm gonna say it: both things are gonna be bad. Gonzalez is not going to do more than slap some singles occasionally, and he'll make some very nice defensive plays as well as enough botches to not really make him be anything special. Lyles probably can work for 5-6 somewhat ok innings, but I have real questions about long-term durability, and I bet Kingham gets sniped if he doesn't make the team, which means the replacement is either going to be Brault, Davis, of Sledgers, unless maybe Brubaker can get a shot.

At least there's a game on TV today and Taillon is pitching.

The encouraging thing about SS is that it seems like Tucker is gaining some helium into an elite level prospect. Other than that, BLAH.

The 5th starter thing continues to be mind-boggling while a Gio remains out there. Watch it be Liriano. Again, I am higher on Brubaker contributing this year than I am Keller.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I think he's basically saying that it's guaranteed to be Lyles. Kingham looked good the time before last, but he got blasted by Atlanta, and the fact that they brought Lyles in in the first place doesn't speak too highly of their long-term perspective on Kingham. I think they'll just risk losing him to waivers, or maybe make a trade for a PTBNL.

I'm not sure what the best thing to root for is: either Lyles at least putting together a very impressive outing to give some false hope, or for him to have a disastrous outing and maybe spur some panic in a pivot to Gio. I sincerely doubt that spending more this year is in the cards, outside of maybe a nominal 5M or something at the deadline if we've really impressed. So I guess the former?

It's too bad we don't have a ton of trade chips, as the Braves have more quality arms than they know what to do with. It would be nice to pick up a guy like Fried or Gohara.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Not sure whether to make anything of it, probably not, but Lyles just gets 2 innings of work on the heels of Taillon today. Honestly, stuff-wise there is some upside with him, as his curveball is a serious out pitch, and he can move the fastball around, ticking up to 94 a number of times today. He seems to have a change that flashes plus at times – I'm not sure how the whole package will stand up over multiple outings, but just stuff-wise I don't think it's going to be an instant disaster.

Taillon got touched up a little bit, but it was his first game action. I think there were 5 doubles, but 3 of them were of the decidedly spring training variety. He looked like his usual self, and also seemed to be really playing with the slider, and throwing 4 pitches at all manner of speeds and locations. I think he still need some slight refinement, but the tools are converging for him to really take it to the next level of true front-line ace, IMO.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Last season's trade to the Brewers showed that Lyle's stuff plays very well in short bullpen appearances, as opposed to the rest of his career in rotations which are the cause of pretty much every ugly stat on the back of his baseball card. That's what really scares me installing him as the 5th starter. Maybe Milwaukee helped him with pitch usage and sequencing that he can translate over to starting, but more than likely those kind of changes really bear the most fruit when you distill them down to 1 or 2 inning appearances and very limited looks.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Last season's trade to the Brewers showed that Lyle's stuff plays very well in short bullpen appearances, as opposed to the rest of his career in rotations which are the cause of pretty much every ugly stat on the back of his baseball card. That's what really scares me installing him as the 5th starter. Maybe Milwaukee helped him with pitch usage and sequencing that he can translate over to starting, but more than likely those kind of changes really bear the most fruit when you distill them down to 1 or 2 inning appearances and very limited looks.

He's Nicasio 2.0. We should remember how the Nicasio-as-starter experiment played out. I guess the one advantage we have is we're not tripling down with a John Niese experiment and a Ryan Vogelsong experiment too...so that's good at least.

 

[Winger for Hire]

The head hang at the end....

ETA- He's tunneling quite well...

 

[ChaosAgent]

@DJ Spinoza , it would not surprise me one bit if Frazier slashed .310/.380/.430 which would make him in all likelihood our best offensive player.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I think Marte is someone easy to overlook, but Frazier's swing looks golden to me. I don't think he's going to have any troubles other than a normal rough patch every now and again this year.

Newman had a big day at the plate today, finally making a dent into that Grapefruit HR surge I predicted for him.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I think Marte is someone easy to overlook, but Frazier's swing looks golden to me. I don't think he's going to have any troubles other than a normal rough patch every now and again this year.

Newman had a big day at the plate today, finally making a dent into that Grapefruit HR surge I predicted for him.

Given that OBP is more valuable than SLG (I think I read once that OBP was 3x as valuable relatively speaking...) that's why I'm picking Frazier. I guess you could also argue for Cervelli by my same logic but he's not going to get nearly as many plate appearances as Frazier.