OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Play On, Garth

[DJ Spinoza]

Reyes is in CF today and the game is on MLB tv if you have it (and it even works for Pittsburghers, I have no clue how spring training correlates w/ the home field blackout thing, but the Phillies/Pirates TV broadcast at the very start of spring training worked for me and I live in Philly).

Kingham is starting, so I'll try and have a look at him at least. I'm pretty much despairing about the 5th starter spot, so I guess I'm sort of hoping everyone keeps struggling and NH goes out and gets Gio or something, as impossible as that seems. Wilborn thinks Brault will at least make the team out of camp as a bullpen arm, according to his chat today, but seemingly forgot he has an option.

Oh yeah, this game is on ESPN. We have full spring training situation, Buster interviewing Pablo Reyes.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Nice little game so far – good ABs from a bunch of Pirates, Jung Ho with a steal, and Kingham looking very sharp, gets Beintendi, Betts, and Devers out with 13 or 14 pitches. His fastball looks noticeably different to me today, good movement, which is causing him to get bad swings on his offspeed stuff. Benintendi put a drive into a ball to start off, but he got Betts to swing at two bad pitches, popping out, and Devers to swing at a bad pitch, in order to ground out.

A nice outing from Kingham today might give him a leg up on the #5 starter spot. It's so hard to read what the plan is, but defaulting to not risking losing assets makes sense if nobody is going to stand out. I can't quite see Kingham as mid-relief, especially assuming we will roster Burdi in that role.

Saying this kind of thing is fraught with many obvious problems, but I have some sense that it's either Kingham makes a run at the #5 spot or we risk losing him. I'd guess that we will either see the emergence of a little competition between him and Lyles as they get stretched out here soon, or else we'll have some kind of default situation, in which case maybe Kingham actually becomes the favorite, unless we turn to Gio or someone else. I think guys like Slegers and Davis are real outside shots – they can obviously be good emergency depth in AAA, but to make a push to break camp with the team, they'd really need to show something special. Safer to just default to Kingham, or roll with Lyles, and then still have them as backup options if it's not working with whatever we go with.

Absent one guy really standing out, my preferences right now are:
1. Just f***ing sign Gio for a year or two
2. Utilize an extra spot with Diaz on IR, and carry many pitchers, bullpenning for a couple April starts and hope somebody impresses enough to "claim" the spot when that roster spot is no longer available.
3. Whatever we are actually going to do, which I think is stick with Lyles, unless he remains poor and we stick with Kingham initially in order not to expose him to waivers (but if Kingham doesn't show much, I think we might just try to push him through and risk losing him).

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Hard to imagine a better early spring outing from Kingham: only gave up two singles, and did so with 0 outs, so he got to also demonstrate he could calmly get out of the inning, in this case getting Devers to hit into a double play and Boegarts to pop out.

Definitely the first strong showing from a #5 starter candidate, and more importantly his pitches looked sharp too. IMO Kingham is a fairly safe pick for the job, since he's had some success before and has the makeup of someone who can at least emulate Nova pretty well. The question with him is what happens on a day where his fastball isn't good enough to set up his offspeed stuff, but that's the kind of thing you can tolerate with your #5 starter. Maybe the "safe" route would be Kingham starting with the job, and Lyles being mid-relief, potentially multi-inning guy who could snipe for the job if Kingham starts to struggle.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Gio or Keuchel should be a no-brainer if we gave a ****. But we don't.

Anyway, Jason Martin's stock has definitely seen a nice jump this spring. Martin and Reynolds will be battling in AAA to have first dibs on the Dickerson spot in 2020.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I actually have significantly more confidence in Kingham after seeing him today. I liked a lot of what I saw from him last year, and I don't know that it's smart to just lose him for nothing, but it's also hard to see carrying him in the bullpen for too long. I think he can be a pretty effective backend guy – the main problem is just the sort of variance you might get from him. When he's not locating that fastball, he's going to struggle quite a bit. But if he does, then the results he's getting today against good batters are by no means just a product of spring training.

In some ways he's a lot similar to Musgrove, with maybe a lower ceiling and also lower floor. I guess I'll say this, which departs slightly from what I have been harping on for a bit: running him out there is probably about as good of a plan as signing Gio, unless you really want to make the case that Gio can still be a #2-3 type.

I'd prefer to see him another couple of times in the spring before jumping too firmly on the bandwagon, but to me it's a lot more sane than hoping Lyles can turn a dozen good bullpen innings and a really good curveball into a productive starting spot. With the options placed in front of me, I'd just as soon at least try Kingham out for a bit than risk losing his spot on the depth chart for nothing.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Ke'Bryan Hayes is gonna be a star.

And I guess I'm at least basically settled on Kingham for now. It's not a picture perfect situation, but to me, keep him on the depth chart and see what kind of consistency he can bring, which also leaving open flexibility for Keller to make a push, in the ideal world where no injuries really happen. That's the other thing on the back of my mind: as poorly as Kingham flamed out last year, he still has the kind of makeup to hold the fort in the event that, I dunno, Williams goes down for two months or something.

We could address the depth question more decisively if we were willing to invest real money into the payroll, but absent that, I default to being closer to NH's conservatism re: organizational assets.

The thing that really drives you up the wall is that there are just so many conditional things with this team all the time. A major one is that if the front four starters are really all clicking at once for a significant amount of time, then the fifth starter is less of an issue really. We can have one good game, a mediocre one, and a flameout, and it won't really faze us. But it's all so many ifs...

 

[ChaosAgent]

Ke'Bryan Hayes is gonna be a star.

And I guess I'm at least basically settled on Kingham for now. It's not a picture perfect situation, but to me, keep him on the depth chart and see what kind of consistency he can bring, which also leaving open flexibility for Keller to make a push, in the ideal world where no injuries really happen. That's the other thing on the back of my mind: as poorly as Kingham flamed out last year, he still has the kind of makeup to hold the fort in the event that, I dunno, Williams goes down for two months or something.

We could address the depth question more decisively if we were willing to invest real money into the payroll, but absent that, I default to being closer to NH's conservatism re: organizational assets.

The thing that really drives you up the wall is that there are just so many conditional things with this team all the time. A major one is that if the front four starters are really all clicking at once for a significant amount of time, then the fifth starter is less of an issue really. We can have one good game, a mediocre one, and a flameout, and it won't really faze us. But it's all so many ifs...

Has Brubaker pitched yet this spring? Simply from box score scouting I'm high on him to be the guy that comes out of nowhere and maybe seizes the #5 job - say by having like a 2.80 ERA in Indy while Keller's in the 4s and our 5 starter's in the 5s.

I really, really wish we could undo Kela/Hearn. You don't get rid of lefty starters with a high ceiling like Hearn has. Hearn may have a low floor but his ceiling is higher than Keller's.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

IIRC he has pitched at least an inning or two of clean work. I think he could be a good candidate, but as long as Kingham can put another start or two together like today, we should just roll with him. If he really can't bring any consistency, then we can make a change in the warm months, either with a Rookie Davis/Aaron Slegers, a Brubaker, or old friend Steven Brault if he's in AAA.

I spilled quite a bit of digital ink on this today, but if Kingham has some more outings where he locates the fastball, then just starting out with him and having Lyles' curveball as a weapon in the pen, and potential competition for Kingham is he falters slightly is just fine. Nobody in the spot is going to make or break anything, since other questions, i.e. the SP ceilings and the offense from the corner infielders especially, are more crucial. My only real concern with the #5 spot is that we can't give away almost every single game there. Lyles seems like a danger to do that, and Kingham certainly could too, but I'm confident enough to give Kingham a crack at it based on my viewing of today's game, with varying contingency levels if he struggles for three straight starts or something.

I don't think they are going to do it, but Kingham is someone they could definitely try and opener with. Maybe even have the opener be Lyles. I wish we had brought in Romo to do that.

BTW, Lyles is starting tomorrow and the game is televised, so I'll probably waste my Thursday afternoon watching that too!

 

[xlm34]

Only basing this off of box scores but it seems like Cole Tucker is having himself a decent spring training.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Tucker's spring is fine. Nothing great, nothing bad.

4 for 13 off of A+/AA pitching with 2 Ks and a walk. 2 errors in 19 chances is a tad worrying, but it's his first big league camp, about what you would expect.

One thing that's not totally worrying, but eyebrow raising... Bucco's catchers are 1 for 9 throwing out base stealers. Granted, the top 2 on the depth chart haven't gotten behind the plate at all this spring, but it gives some worry since one has trouble staying healthy and the other seems to attract weird ways to miss playing time and is currently dealing with a mystery illness (which I have my money on Legionnaire's disease in my pool).

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Not sure where to find sortable spring training stats, but Brown was raving about Stallings' defense the other day.

Among the hazy middling group, so not including regulars and prospects (this is a super hazy categorization), I think the two players who have stood out most in a positive way from casually observing so far are Kang and Burdi. Kang looks much fitter than he ever has before, and although I think Burdi has given up at least one bomb, he's gotten strong reports and rung up a bunch of Ks. Although there might be some roster spot concerns to worry about in general (Reyes, the #5 starters/long-men), I don't think it will be that difficult to at least roster Burdi for the minimum amount of games to keep him.

With Kang, I think a question early on will be how much of the reigns they'll give back to him. Moran is actually not the worst kind of guy to be coming off the bench routinely, in terms of bringing a consistently good approach to the plate, but 1) I am not really sure what kind of in-game sub Moran makes sense for besides pure switch hitter, and 2) A more straightforward platoon seems to have its own problems.

As much as I don't like Kang for the off field stuff, he's one of our only chances for a big power bat, and so you sort of have to hope that Hurdle relies on him more often than not if the bat is there. It's a situation where I could see getting 20-25 HRs from Kang, and maybe still a good 8-12 from Moran if we really get lucky, but I don't trust Hurdle to find the right platoon balance.

 

[Winger for Hire]

MLB.com keeps pretty good Spring Training stats-

Sortable Player Stats

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Cervelli in at C today for the first time, and looks like Hayes has been rewarded for a good spring by getting to play with the big boy lineup. Marte also making his spring debut today, and Chisenhall back from whatever minor injury he sustained.

 

[Winger for Hire]

You beat me to that lineup post.... curse you

 

[ImporterExporter]

Cole Tucker can't hit. Same problem Newman has.

Even IF they managed to become .300 hitters in the bigs they have almost zero pop so their OPS most likely will never be good enough.

Hope I'm wrong.

 

[Winger for Hire]

I don't know about can't hit. He put together a very good 20 game sample in the AFL this winter (.370/.445/.457 in 90 PAs with 6 steals in 9 tries) . If you're looking to Cole Tucker for pop, you're always going to be mistaken. He's a table setter, leadoff man with wheels and bat to ball skills.

You also have to realize that Tucker was one of the youngest players in his draft class and he was pretty young for AA last season, and still put together almost 600 PAs with a respectable slash line of .259/.333/.356 and swiping 35 bags in 47 attempts. In terms of pop from Tucker, you're going to see something similar to Freddy Sanchez, great contact, doubles machine, single digit homers.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, I like both Hayes and Tucker as risers for different reasons. And really, they aren't going to be terribly disconnected from the core that exists right now, assuming they don't get injured. It's possible that I'm hyping Hayes up too much, but I can definitely see him surging in the in-game power department this year, and/or being in a situation where he's more of a speed/doubles/defense type guy when he breaks in, and eases into more power as he ages. He just has an intangibility that jumps out when you watch him.

Tucker and to a greater extent Newman have some question marks, since there's less margin for error in that kind of profile, but that's often the case with SS prospects.

The real trouble is, you have to wonder about the Archer deal and especially the Kela deal. Archer is maybe less of a concern, since we can still ride that contract out for two more full years, but I agree with what Doc has been pushing, the Kela for Hearn move might turn out to be rough if Hearn remains a starter. I totally like the strategy of getting Kela to pair with Vazquez, but he's going to be due for a payday we won't give him to stick around, and we have other possibilities to potentially work into that role – Burdi, Crick, RichRod, and longer term Santana or even Kuhl.

It just kinda makes you wonder how we could have positioned ourselves better if we more fully rebuilt last year and this year: see what kind of additions you can make to the core, and maybe sell high on Marte. I don't think we've totally handicapped ourselves or anything, but definitely a kind of muddled strategy.

 

[DanielPlainview]

At this point, for SS, regardless of who it is, they're going to be hitting in the 8-spot. I think you just start the guy with the best defense and hope you can get some timely hitting out of them as they hover the Mendoza.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I don't even know that it's true that Newman "can't hit", either. He just had a horrid run to end last year in the majors. I want to see how he looks going forward instead of assuming he sucks because of those 31 games. He was a .290 hitter in the minors after all.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, I think the question with Newman is if he can field well enough to sometimes get his bat in the lineup. He may indeed hit 8th, given that I imagine Hurdle will want consistency at the top of the lineup, but to me the question with him will be how much Hurdle wants to turn to him. Presumably there will be some kind of platoon there, but if Hurdle makes the decision that Newman doesn't bring a lot, then you have to wonder how long it might be until we're tempted to try Kang out at SS, and have Gonzalez as a defensive replacement late in games.

Lyles definitely has a great curveball. I trust Kingham to be more of an all-around starter due to his makeup and arsenal. It seems like with Lyles, he could be pretty effective, but start to get hurt after multiple viewings. If we did something like deploy an opener for him, then an opener + him for 6 innings might be doable, but I think I'd still just as soon try Kingham if we're talking pure 5th starter.

My main reasoning is just asset conservatism. Lyles could be serviceable, but he's already probably the best long-reliever on the team, and I don't know how well Kingham could slide into that role. I'm just repeating what I said a bunch yesterday already, but given that, might as well try out Kingham first, and have Lyles as plan B if it doesn't work out.

 

[Empoleon8771]

The fact that Gonzalez hit .226 with a sub-.300 slugging% in the winter league this winter, combined with having more errors than hits this year in spring training, certainly doesn't make me optimistic about him playing over Newman this year

Dear lord, Gonzalez also had 9 errors in the winter league this year in 30 games. I really hope this team doesn't view him as the front runner for the starting SS spot.

 

[DanielPlainview]

I don't know if we'll see Kang playing SS. His range was a concern when he first got here and a broken leg and 3 years haven't helped that. I guess it would depend on whether serviceable defense + quality hitting is preferred to the good defense + OK hitting Newman may bring.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

That's the vibe I get from Wilborn and others. My understanding is that his defense is a lot better at 3B than SS, but the party line seems to be elite defense at SS. To me, not at least inviting Iglesias into camp is the height of arrogance and cheapness.

Lyles looked fine today... neither the #5 SP nor the SS situation are very comforting, so I keep flopping on which one bothers me more, but I think there's probably more floor dropping out with SS.


Edit: Yes, I think Kang at SS for anything more than a random game will either mean the options are truly abysmal or there's some kind of injury. I'm kinda banking on the former happening, but I think it would be a pretty touch and go situation even if we aggressively subbed in for him defensively late in games.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Maybe if I continue **** talking Gonzalez he'll start actually doing something

Just hit a homerun for anyone who isn't following the game. Frazier also followed it up with a homerun. Some guy named Yefry Ramirez is pitching and he's a fringe AAA/MLBer, so it's not like they're up against A level pitchers.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

No idea who Jefry Ramirez is, but Gonzalez crushed a HR off him and then Frazier did the same thing.