OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Play On, Garth

[Winger for Hire]

I know it's only spring training games, but the two SS projected to go north are a combined 2 for 19 with a double, 2 walks, 8 strikeouts, 1 caught stealing all against an average of AA pitching.

The bottom of the lineup is going to be a black hole. At this point I would welcome the DH just so the 8 and 9 spots weren't a guaranteed 2 outs.

On the bright side, Hayes and Craig are having very good spring start at the dish.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

It seems to be exactly how most of us think it will shape up. I will say just from the looks I have gotten, Newman seems much better to me, but it's so hard to tell.

The #5 starter is looking like it's going to be an obvious issue, and Gio is still sitting out there on the wire. Probably at this point waiting for Keuchel to sign.

 

[DanielPlainview]

Looks like Meadows is having a strong ST at the plate. Rough going for Glasnow so far, though.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

My totally just gut feeling thought is that Glasnow will have some brief soaring heights this year as he also struggles greatly with consistency. I don't mean this as backhanded as it will sound, but I think the soaring heights he's already gone to have solidified the fact that he'll still be incorporated into MLB rosters for quite a long time, just because if everything falls into place, he'll be unstoppable.

Keller got roughed up today and only lasted one inning, with some severe spring training asterisks: Wendel hit a wind-assisted HR, a ball went for a double/triple because the outfielder was positioned way to one side, and apparently Welke is calling a bizarre strike zone. I'm a little concerned with the walks, and if the minor league cuts happen soon, it looks like it will be a disappointing big league camp for Keller, but it's not like he had much of a chance to factor in anyways.

The #5 starter thing is just going to be ridiculous and be an immediate problem as soon as the season starts. I want to believe that Lyles can be somewhat plausible and get some ok 5 IP starts, and maybe a very solid 6+ start or two over six months, but I just don't see it. I'm expecting chunks of runs and early exits, i.e., damaging losses. He'll be who I most want to see when the pitchers are stretched out and some more games are televised.

 

[JimmyTwoTimes]

My totally just gut feeling thought is that Glasnow will have some brief soaring heights this year as he also struggles greatly with consistency. I don't mean this as backhanded as it will sound, but I think the soaring heights he's already gone to have solidified the fact that he'll still be incorporated into MLB rosters for quite a long time, just because if everything falls into place, he'll be unstoppable.

Keller got roughed up today and only lasted one inning, with some severe spring training asterisks: Wendel hit a wind-assisted HR, a ball went for a double/triple because the outfielder was positioned way to one side, and apparently Welke is calling a bizarre strike zone. I'm a little concerned with the walks, and if the minor league cuts happen soon, it looks like it will be a disappointing big league camp for Keller, but it's not like he had much of a chance to factor in anyways.

The #5 starter thing is just going to be ridiculous and be an immediate problem as soon as the season starts. I want to believe that Lyles can be somewhat plausible and get some ok 5 IP starts, and maybe a very solid 6+ start or two over six months, but I just don't see it. I'm expecting chunks of runs and early exits, i.e., damaging losses. He'll be who I most want to see when the pitchers are stretched out and some more games are televised.

Lost some important games late last year because of that , costing us a chance at a WC spot. You'd think they would get that solid 5th starter.

Even if Keller dominated ST they wouldnt bring him up til Summer anyway.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yes, my worry is that we'll be throwing away a lot of the #5 starter games. And my depression lies in the fact that we're only aiming to be maybe viable in half of them or something. And while that might statistically be a way to get better than average results out of the roster spot for cheap money, it's entirely avoidable with a short term investment. Nova would be a well above average #5 starter even if he were overpaid, and we need to cut all the corners we can to maximize on 85++ wins. Instead we're cutting corners to be slightly on the periphery of the WC race in a more efficient manner.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I think I might be coming around to favoring Pablo Reyes over Melky for the last bench spot, although in the event that Diaz starts the year on the DL, there may be more flexibility assuming we just have Cervelli with Stallings as the backup.

 

[FlightlessBird]

 

[cookthebooks]

too bad nutting didn’t decide to do that

 

[OnMyOwn]

That’s weird haha

 

[DJ Spinoza]

It's funny, Kela probably didn't realize that 90% of the idiot yinzers who cover sports in Pittsburgh probably would have just left him well enough alone anyways.

(Btw, apparently Kela has some social anxiety issues, which the Rangers media all knew about. Given the general disposition of most of the Pittsburgh media, excluding the beat writers probably, this probably won't matter).

Off day today, but spring training has really been pretty boring, since the exciting players are mostly just warming up at Pirate City or getting a couple of ABs in.

Maybe worth noting that Newman had a couple of hits yesterday. I actually think his bat will probably play somewhat, but that needs an asterisk since by somewhat, I mean, with typical rookie ups and downs, and also that I'm not sure what kind of upside there is in the bat anyways. Seems like at his best, he'll be similar to Mercer with better speed and worse power. The only way he'll be exciting is if he can hit well enough for average to be reliable at the top of the order, and then use his speed to create some havoc on the base paths.

 

[JimmyTwoTimes]

It's funny, Kela probably didn't realize that 90% of the idiot yinzers who cover sports in Pittsburgh probably would have just left him well enough alone anyways.

(Btw, apparently Kela has some social anxiety issues, which the Rangers media all knew about. Given the general disposition of most of the Pittsburgh media, excluding the beat writers probably, this probably won't matter).

Off day today, but spring training has really been pretty boring, since the exciting players are mostly just warming up at Pirate City or getting a couple of ABs in.

Maybe worth noting that Newman had a couple of hits yesterday. I actually think his bat will probably play somewhat, but that needs an asterisk since by somewhat, I mean, with typical rookie ups and downs, and also that I'm not sure what kind of upside there is in the bat anyways. Seems like at his best, he'll be similar to Mercer with better speed and worse power. The only way he'll be exciting is if he can hit well enough for average to be reliable at the top of the order, and then use his speed to create some havoc on the base paths.

I also see him as a Mercer type which isnt the worst thing but I want better. Hoping Tucker can continue to improve his bat...he has the defense and speed to steal alot of bases. Needs to continue to improve at the plate. Last year was a good sign.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, my form of optimism with the SS position is hoping Tucker plays well enough to force the issue by July or so, entering into a kind of a platoon with Newman. I really hope Gonzalez is the defensive wiz we seem to be promised, but even if he is, he's going to give value back at the plate, I'm absolutely sure of it. As Winger said, the 8/9 spots will be a black hole... hopefully Newman makes that sometimes not the case, maybe making a a surge to the top of the order for a couple of exciting weeks, and Gonzalez at least provides plus defense when he plays.

I can just sort of envision it now, though. Gonzalez playing a lot of plus defense, but then flubs a key play, and we lose a crucial game in the standings. It's going to be a real headache to lose winnable games this year, given how cutthroat the division is shaping up to be.

 

[cookthebooks]

tim williams piece on the new hitting coach setup and their embrace of analytics is imo the best read on the pirates all off season

https://www.piratesprospects.com/20...modern-hitting-philosophy-to-the-pirates.html

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Good to hear, I don't have a PP subscription but it does seem like we're at least where other teams are at in this regard.

I hate even raising this kind of thing, since it's so pointless, but if Keuchel's market has really evaporated, there's absolutely no excuse whatsoever for us not to try what the Brewers did with Grandal. The situations are not easily comparable, since with a pitcher the injury risk is a huge one, but given minimal options, the opportunity for a big payday in a pitcher's park is probably a lot more lucrative that sitting out.

In fact, if things continue as they are, I'll be surprised if the Phillies don't do something like that. I definitely see the logic to not wanting to commit big to a soft tossing lefty, and in fact that's why I don't like Keuchel in general, but as a one year investment, it'd be pretty identical to the Grandal situation.

We have an obvious open spot, obvious means we won't tap into, and as a bonus, he'd compliment the hard throwers pretty well. I'm still not sure it'd move the needle enough to approach the Cardinals, who to me are significantly better than the other divisional teams, but he's probably good for 3+ WAR and 180+ innings no matter what.

 

[NewAgeOutlaw]

I think it is fine if a player doesn't like taking questions. They rarely say anything of substance. They use lots of Bull Durham clichés.

Pittsburgh needs some baseball weather asap.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Archer today, but no television once again. The only reason I can think why so few spring games are televised is that it probably costs way more to do TV production, and maybe there's some kind of informal agreement with spring training cities not to televise games in the hopes of tourism? That seems kind of silly to even suggest, since you'd think the same amount of tourists and retirees would be attending spring games no matter what was happening on TVs in Pittsburgh/MLB.tv, but I can't really imagine there's revenue to be lost by teams not airing the games.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

 

[Winger for Hire]

I hate getting on the team for little things like expanding the Dominican Academy, upgrading the food and lifestyle of minor leaguers, and things that absolutely need to be and should be done, but it all rings hollow because nothing is being done at the upper level which these things feed into.

With a sub $70m payroll and everything being said by management in the media (Seriously, shut the f*** up. There's nothing you can say that's going to make anything better) this all seems to be just ways to show that "Hey, look, we spend money. Just not in places you can see!"

It's like building a computer and buying all these fancy braided cables, gold plated connectors, liquid cooling systems, RGB lighting effects, and a high end case... but then buying an old Sandy Bridge processor, a 980 GTX GPU, just enough RAM to run the rig, and an old 250GB HDD

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Huntington also did an interview apparently on the Fan which seems to veer back towards calling out fan attendance, but without knowing the context, I have little doubt that they got him to say a certain GM-speak type of thing, which is being framed as implicitly about the Pirates (it was a quote about the Cardinals having a high payroll).

To me, the biggest problem is what can with extreme charity be described as a vacillating strategy. It's one thing to scale back on payroll, but it's another to do so when you are utilizing prime prospects in order to try and accelerate your window. Literally the only conclusion that I think is possible is that we're aiming to be solid enough and lucky, and that's the aim in perpetuity. We can go a little higher in payroll, and might in the future, but beyond some ballpark payroll restrictions, the main idea is to try and aim for 85 wins as efficiently as possible.

Even an almost equally pathetic 85M payroll would shore up the depth and at least provide some backbone for the 85 win drive. I'm sure there are some analytics which tell them that there's little point in bring in non-pre-arb players at a certain point, but it just seems like common sense that the barest of minimums – Gio, or just paying Nova the end of his f***ing contract – would at least be trying to bootstrap the current strategy.

 

[DanielPlainview]

The worst thing a franchise can do is create a state of fan apathy through sustained mediocrity. If you're terrible, there's some hope and maybe a loveable loser quality that can be had. When you're mediocre, it's just a malaise.

I feel like if Bob owned one of the big boys the league wouldn't put up with his management style so much. Owning the Pirates? It's that small market team with the really cool ballcap.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Nice couple of innings from Archer – got some Ks, and sounds like he's working in an offspeed pitch regularly.

Gonzalez just made what sounds like a great defensive play, with Brown and Blass raving about it.

Perhaps also worth noting that Melky is in CF today. Obviously just spring training stuff, but good to see that they are being proactive in evaluating who can spot Marte. I tend to think that this might be the best path for Reyes to make the team. He seems to be the most flexible in terms of a super utility player, even if ultimately I think Cabrera and Chisenhall will be ahead of him. If Diaz starts on IR, we could break camp with Reyes and figure things out once Polanco/Diaz are healthy (Chisenhall/Cabrera could be hurt, someone else, etc).

Bell cranked a dinger.

 

[cookthebooks]

josh bell piece from pirates prospects good too. its been a long time since i logged on to that site, so nice to see good work on back to back days.

The problem here is that the adjustment isn’t a quick fix for Bell. It’s not a physical adjustment, but more of a mentality that he needs, since he typically has a negative launch angle when he’s actively trying to make contact in front of the plate. To solve this, his focus is on driving the ball to left-center field, which is an approach that gets him on the optimal swing plane to make contact out in front.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Fun early-ish spring fact- Kang has 3 hits, all homers

Expected SS depth chart is a combined 4 for 25

 

[ChaosAgent]

Sonny Gray rips Yankees for forcing him to throw the wrong breaking ball last season: 'They love sliders'

I want to call this out as it seems like organizational pitching philosophies over maximizing individual pitching talents isn't just limited to the Pirates. If Gray bounces back big this season + the new affordable contract, we should be kicking ourselves for not making a more serious play.