OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Play On, Garth

[DJ Spinoza]

I think Kingham could be ok as a long reliever, and in the medium and long-term that might be how he makes a living for himself. But I guess I just defer to him as a starter because we know that Lyles can be an effective bullpen option. Here's how the bullpen looks to me right now:

Vazquez, Kela, Crick, RichRod – obvious locks, late-innings
Burdi, Liriano – likely locks, due to Rule 5 + lack of depth/experience

That makes 6, so room for at least 1-2 more. A normal bullpen would just be 1, so it could be Lyles/Kingham, with the other being the long man. Kingham could be more suited for that, but I think Lyles gives you the best weapon, and maybe you give Lyles or Burdi the occasional multi-inning stints. There's no true long reliever in the event that something unforseen happens, but Liriano has tons of experience, and worst case, we have to tap into AAA in order to rest a few guys.

If you figure that the top-4 in the rotation will give you a lot of length, then I think it's an easy gamble to see what Kingham can do as the #5 starter, allowing Lyles to potentially usurp him if he really falters over 3 starts or something. Sure, in that case there'd also be some transition time to Lyles getting more stretched out, but Brault will be available and stretched out as an emergency arm, and Brubaker could also get a spot start/brief long-man duties, etc.

Just from a roster construction perspective, I like this the most. I'm really high on Burdi, and so as long as Crick gets back to normal, you might have 6 guys who are really plus arms in the bullpen. That would make not having a designated long reliever less of an issue except in the event of a weird rain delay or extra innings, which are the kinds of things you generally have to respond to on the fly anyways.

 

[Fogel]

Trout getting 430 mil over 12 years.

He's literally being paid more than half of the entire payroll of the Pirates.

Let that sink in and draw your own conclusions about what is wrong with MLB.

He might not even been overpaid for his twilight years.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, it's a bit of a surprise that Trout wanted to lock this in now, since presumably he'd get more after the CBA. I mean, there's the obvious that it's a shit load of money no matter what, and now he's got security, NTC, etc., but simply financially, it's not even really that big of a deal to an MLB team.

 

[ImporterExporter]

The sad thing is Trout doesn't get near enough exposure on the west coast. He's going to likely go down as one of the 10 greatest players ever. And so many folks rarely get to see him play consistently.

 

[NewAgeOutlaw]

Trout will be in the conversation for GOAT by the time he is finished, imo.

The guy scouting for the Angels saw a couple of ab's and left the game early because he knew they were drafting Trout if he was available when they picked in the first round.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, I have so little desire to watch the Angels play ever.

LOL, Vazquez gets some multi-inning work against AAAA Tigers guys (though except for like Castellanos, it's hard to even say), and does exactly what you'd expect. I watched most of Brault today, and after some early control trouble, he did settle into a groove. I think given the fact that he still has an option left, there's no reason he needs to break camp with the team. Maybe if Liriano totally washes out or gets hurt he can get a look, but he has to be emergency depth I think, and ideally regular work where he can continue to harness his new delivery might be good for him.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Trout will be in the conversation for GOAT by the time he is finished, imo.

The guy scouting for the Angels saw a couple of ab's and left the game early because he knew they were drafting Trout if he was available when they picked in the first round.

He needs postseason bullet points to get to GOAT status.

Speaking of playoff resume's does anyone else find it strange how big of a gap there is between Kershaw's regular season dominance and his usually average to poor performances in October? He's had a few gems here and there in the playoffs but overall the numbers are pretty poor for someone who will breeze into Cooperstown.

 

[Goalie_Bob]

All comes down to sample size and level of competition.

Same could be said for pre The Cream and The Clear Barry Bonds.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

 

[Winger for Hire]

This quote makes me angry for some reason

 

[DJ Spinoza]

My guess: Moran, Cabrera, Reyes, and Stallings. Kingham gets kept as the designated long reliever, but in a minor surprise, we also keep Lyons in addition to Liriano.

I think we'll see how that bench works out, with a sort of ongoing competition from certain relievers, one of whom will go back whenever Diaz is ready. Barring injury elsewhere, it's when Polanco comes back that the decisions will be more difficult. I can't see us risking Stallings getting claimed, so the question probably comes down the Cabrera, Reyes, and Moran, who I think does have an option. Not worth worrying about in advance, as there's a nonzero chance that somebody will at least have a minor injury at that point.

 

[Winger for Hire]

So if the Brewers sign Kimbrel, and can deploy Hader, Kimbrel, Knuble, Jeffress, Woodruff all out of the pen pretty much rotating a dominate multi-inning guy every other day along with a dominate 1 inning guy every 3 days to supplement their solid, but average rotation... are they the favorites out the NL?

Not to mention their pretty solid lineup that added a full season of Moose and Grandal behind the plate and Hiura knocking on the door.

 

[DanielPlainview]

It is better to have a good rotation than a good bullpen. Having a solid rotation and bullpen, obvious is better. I think the Pirates can have that if someone steps up in the 5-spot in the rotation. I think again, their biggest problems will be holes in the defense and consistent hitting/power.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

That grievance filed a little over a year ago about the Pirate's spending never went away, and is still active.

MLBPA remains concerned about teams' winning intentions

 

[Winger for Hire]

Talk about overmatched...

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, I've seen that kind of stuff from him every time I've watched this spring. I think it's still not all wonderfully polished, but he seems at least primed enough to take over Santana's role immediately. Far from being just a guy we make sure to roster to keep for the future, I think he'll be a weapon this year. And in the event that he does still need some polish, I think it won't really be an issue to keep him for the minimum amount of time.

If I had to guess, having him in the fold + Crick, RichRod, etc., will mean there's no way we'll pay to keep Kela, even though spending a small amount of money to lock in an NL bullpen of death would probably be wise (though Kela may want to close and in any case will certainly test the market). For that reason, Kela is probably a strong trade candidate this year, but I'm getting ahead of myself... given what we gave up, we should at least try to coast with him unless the playoff picture is hopeless.

We're almost exactly a week away from the season starting for us – should we do some kind of predictions? 5 bold ones? Something else? I can't remember what we did in previous years, or if any of us care enough to roll some out this year.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Yeah, I've seen that kind of stuff from him every time I've watched this spring. I think it's still not all wonderfully polished, but he seems at least primed enough to take over Santana's role immediately. Far from being just a guy we make sure to roster to keep for the future, I think he'll be a weapon this year. And in the event that he does still need some polish, I think it won't really be an issue to keep him for the minimum amount of time.

If I had to guess, having him in the fold + Crick, RichRod, etc., will mean there's no way we'll pay to keep Kela, even though spending a small amount of money to lock in an NL bullpen of death would probably be wise (though Kela may want to close and in any case will certainly test the market). For that reason, Kela is probably a strong trade candidate this year, but I'm getting ahead of myself... given what we gave up, we should at least try to coast with him unless the playoff picture is hopeless.

We're almost exactly a week away from the season starting for us – should we do some kind of predictions? 5 bold ones? Something else? I can't remember what we did in previous years, or if any of us care enough to roll some out this year.

5 bold predictions:
1) Frazier is our best offensive player and not by a small margin.
2) Tucker is our starting SS on June 15th
3) Kela implodes
4) Josh Bell has a middling season and is a constant topic for criticism. He is moved at the deadline for an equivalent "fallen prospect" pitcher and the Pirates roll with a Moran/Osuna platoon till the end of the season.
5) Pirates finish 4th with 77 wins. Milwaukee and St. Louis pass Chicago, though, as the Cubs see huge regression from Lester, Kyle Hendricks and Hamels while Darvish only makes 60% of his starts due to injury. The Cubs trade a package headlined by Schwarber for Kluber at the deadline, though.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I'll do 5 predictions for this year:

1. Their starting pitching group is near the top of the NL this year. Archer gets back to elite form and ends up putting up around a 3.30 ERA. Taillon continues to do what he did last year. Williams takes a step back, but still puts up solid #3/4 pitcher numbers. Musgrove takes a small step forward. Their #5 pitcher will be incredibly hit and miss all year and will have a ton of turnover, since no one will be able to clamp down the spot.
2. Kang, Dickerson and Polanco (assuming he's back before the end of April) all hit 25 home runs. Kang puts up basically the same batting line as Alvarez in 2015 (.245/.325/.475). Frazier and Dickerson are the Pirates highest WAR players. Cabrera has the highest batting average by the end of the year.
3. Bell shows no progression from where he was last year, ending up a less than 1.0 WAR player. Gonzalez is also around the same level. Diaz regresses from where he was at last year, and Cervelli maintains the starting catcher's spot because of it.
4. The Pirates have a top of the line bullpen outside of Crick, who regresses from where he was at last year. Burdi has a fantastic season and basically replicates Crick's 2018.
5. The Pirates end up with 85 wins but still don't make the playoffs. Too much mediocrity in their infield will prevent them from taking advantage of their great outfield, bullpen and starting pitching (even with a crappy #5).

 

[cookthebooks]

keith law doesnt have any pirates in his breakout players list, but he does think the change in hitting approach will boost someones power numbers. he would say polanco if the injury stuff wasnt looming

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I'll chime in later, but I don't think it's been widely disseminated yet that Polanco might DH in some spring training games this week apparently. If that's true, it's hard to ballpark when he will actually return, but it seems likely that it wouldn't be much later than early May, which would be a huge boon.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Hmmmm, 5 Bold Predictions for 2019... let's see here...

1. Tucker and Hayes force their way into the lineup. Hayes before Tucker. Kang flashes some power, but the whiffs and lack of anything else force them to turn to Hayes who is making the International League seem like Aerican Legion ball. Tucker might take a little longer because of the team wanting to try out every single other option, including a 2nd and maybe 3rd chance for Gonzo. Extra- Craig will make enough noise to have lot of rumbling about usurping Bell at 1st.
2. Marte breaks out in a big way, like flirting with 30/30. The new hitting philosophy allows his potential to finally unlock. We might see his Ks near the 130 mark, but the increase power will keep the overall profile looking great with somewhere around an .830 OPS floor.
3. Mitch Keller goes sour, but not useless. He looks OK in Indy, but not good enough to jump into the question mark #5 spot. He'll get blown up just as often as he tosses gems, but won't look lost. The shine will wear off, but he won't be a lost cause; 2020 will be his year. JT Brubaker will be the farmhand with the best shot to really stabilize the 5 spot from June on posting a better than 108 ERA+.
4. Catcher becomes a carousel with Diaz working back into form, Cervelli finding new ways to get nicked up and needing rest, which allows Stallings to get a fair amount of time and getting exposed because he's not a high volume MLB catcher. Cervelli gets that dreaded ball off the mask and the Pirates have to scramble for a catching solution and make a mid-season-ish trade with the Nats for a catcher.
5. Melky surprises enough to end up sticking with the team as a very useful 4th OF and ends up returning something of value at the trade deadline. Nothing like a rated prospects, but a prospect on the rating fringes.

Bonus from Down on the Farm

1. The Legend of Pablo Reyes turns into a September anomaly. He breaks camp, but is the casualty when Polanco returns. He doesn't do enough to break back into the team in Indy, but makes strides around the diamond to make himself a strong utility candidate next year.
2. The next prospect to grab our attention is Conner Uselton. A year removed from completely tearing apart his hammy, last year was his recovery and full intro into pro ball, this should be the year he feels healthy enough to show is athleticism and show that he was worth a top 100 pick in 2017.
3. Lolo learns how to handle breaking balls well enough to jump back into the mix of MLB type prospects. He swipes 40+ bases but people will still moan about his lack of power.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Hmmmm, 5 Bold Predictions for 2019... let's see here...

1. Tucker and Hayes force their way into the lineup. Hayes before Tucker. Kang flashes some power, but the whiffs and lack of anything else force them to turn to Hayes who is making the International League seem like Aerican Legion ball. Tucker might take a little longer because of the team wanting to try out every single other option, including a 2nd and maybe 3rd chance for Gonzo. Extra- Craig will make enough noise to have lot of rumbling about usurping Bell at 1st.
2. Marte breaks out in a big way, like flirting with 30/30. The new hitting philosophy allows his potential to finally unlock. We might see his Ks near the 130 mark, but the increase power will keep the overall profile looking great with somewhere around an .830 OPS floor.
3. Mitch Keller goes sour, but not useless. He looks OK in Indy, but not good enough to jump into the question mark #5 spot. He'll get blown up just as often as he tosses gems, but won't look lost. The shine will wear off, but he won't be a lost cause; 2020 will be his year. JT Brubaker will be the farmhand with the best shot to really stabilize the 5 spot from June on posting a better than 108 ERA+.
4. Catcher becomes a carousel with Diaz working back into form, Cervelli finding new ways to get nicked up and needing rest, which allows Stallings to get a fair amount of time and getting exposed because he's not a high volume MLB catcher. Cervelli gets that dreaded ball off the mask and the Pirates have to scramble for a catching solution and make a mid-season-ish trade with the Nats for a catcher.
5. Melky surprises enough to end up sticking with the team as a very useful 4th OF and ends up returning something of value at the trade deadline. Nothing like a rated prospects, but a prospect on the rating fringes.

#2-4 sound like good predictions to me. I don't see Hayes usurping Kang that quick, though. And I think #5 is going to be Chisenhall and not Melky.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Chisenhall isn't going to be able to keep his body intact long enough to string together starts, let alone build value.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Chisenhall isn't going to be able to keep his body intact long enough to string together starts, let alone build value.

Then I'll make "Lonnie Chisenhall's body stays intact" as my #6 bold prediction.

 

[FlightlessBird]

Kang just hit a walk-off grand slam and it was hit straight into the trash can in right. Two guys lifted the lid off to get it.