OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Play On, Garth

[DJ Spinoza]

I don't feel like copy and pasting a bunch of tweets and the Pirates media apparently aren't into tweet threads, so... several cuts today to get the team down to 40 players, and NH announces that Gonzalez and Kang will start, as many expect. Moran will be on the bench, and get some work in as a backup 1B too from what it sounds like.

Newman's spot on the team doesn't sound like it's guaranteed, and given that the only offensive cut that's not a minor leaguer or depth was Kramer, it seems reasonable to assume that Newman is now in a battle with Reyes, Cabrera, Shuck, Kivelehan etc for the final bench spot(s). I'm going to assume Reyes might edge him out, since Newman can be optioned and Reyes can back up CF in addition to SS.

The decision is not irrevocable from what it sounds like, but it's certainly not going to lapse into any kind of platoon for a while. Probably the right move, given the group of players we have: stick to some starters at least for six or eight weeks, and then maybe reassess.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I'm surprised that they made Kang the starting 3B instead of entering the year with a platoon between him and Moran, but I'm pleased with that decision. Moran has almost no upside as an everyday player and him at 1B may light a fire under Bell's ass to be better. The Gonzalez news is expected, I just wish the Pirates had better than the mediocrity upside that Gonzalez has.

 

[ImporterExporter]

More likely?

Kang hits below .250 or bashes 25+ home runs?

 

[Empoleon8771]

More likely?

Kang hits below .250 or bashes 25+ home runs?

If you held a gun to my head, I'd say 25 home runs. This is assuming he stays healthy, though.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Quick prediction for top 10 Pirates this year, by WAR except for Vazquez as RP is a different beast

1) Marte
2) Taillon
3) Frazier
4) Dickerson
5) Vazquez
6) T. Williams
7) Kang
8) Archer
9) Cervelli
10) Polanco

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Based on spring training, I think Kang could be an ok bet to hit both of those metrics. If the batting average ticks up, he'll be an incredible contributor again. I think the power is going to be there simply because the timing is clearly still there, he's playing like you'd expect "with" the game, i.e., not whatever we expected based on the reports from the winter league games a few years ago.

 

[td_ice]

We should do another "predict the wins for the season" before opening day. I believe last year, I predicted 74. And they finished 80-81. So better than I thought.

 

[Winger for Hire]

I remember a bunch of people calling 100 losses last year... that was fun

I think I hedge my bets last year predicting a range of anywhere from 76 to 84 wins, and to be honest, I think I'm going to hold a similar view of this year's team as well, but with a slightly higher ceiling because of a Taillon showing that slider and some really filthy stuff right now and making that leap to low end elite tier pitcher, full year of Archer, Williams showing he can pitch to a high-mid rotation guy, Kela helping to shore up the 7/8/9 innings, and the possibility of Hayes and Tucker being able to come up at some point and stake their claims.

Winger prediction- Anywhere from 78-86 wins

 

[ImporterExporter]

Good enough to not get a premium draft pick. Not good enough to make the postseason.

Mediocre.

Wash, rinse, repeat. The Nutting way.

 

[cookthebooks]

does continuously building mediocre teams while attendance craters cease to be a viable strategy for a gm?

 

[ChaosAgent]

I remember a bunch of people calling 100 losses last year... that was fun

I think I hedge my bets last year predicting a range of anywhere from 76 to 84 wins, and to be honest, I think I'm going to hold a similar view of this year's team as well, but with a slightly higher ceiling because of a Taillon showing that slider and some really filthy stuff right now and making that leap to low end elite tier pitcher, full year of Archer, Williams showing he can pitch to a high-mid rotation guy, Kela helping to shore up the 7/8/9 innings, and the possibility of Hayes and Tucker being able to come up at some point and stake their claims.

Winger prediction- Anywhere from 78-86 wins

The division is considerably better, that's the issue I'm having with thinking we'll exceed last year.

 

[Winger for Hire]

The division is considerably better, that's the issue I'm having with thinking we'll exceed last year.

I can totally get on-board with that as well, however there are uncertainties in the division as well. With the Cubs, Rizzo is regressing every year and Bryant needs to shake that should injury (ST looks good, but it's a marathon) coupled with more bullpen question marks than you can shake a stick at; the Brewers look good, but their pitching is far from solid, especially the rotation. Can Hader sustain? Will Braun finally fall apart?; the Reds have gotten better on paper, but can their OFs find a groove with a 5 man rotation? Can Votto find his power stroke again at age 35? CAn average starting pitching survive in GAB?; the Cards are just going to be the Cards, 85 win floor with 95ish ceiling with Goldy, Carpenter, Bader, Ozuna lineup with a servicable rotation and talks of a SUPERPEN with Miller, Hicks, Reyes, Hudson, Leone and maybe CMart.

The division certainly has a potential to be a bloodbath, and I'm betting on it being mostly that way, but there are a lot of question marks in the division.

 

[Winger for Hire]

I'll buy the MLB package in a heartbeat if I could watch games from this view

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I can and almost certainly will write more about this before the season, but my take is that there is a lot more variation that's possible this year. I think last year I was adamant on a 78-85 win range or something. I've been loudly skeptical about Gonzalez and Lyles, but I don't think it's a huge hit to the floor.

I think the hit, as well as the upside, comes more in the divisional questions that Winger outlined. I think I'd tick the floor down to about 75, but I think that'd also really take a major injury or something. I'll put the ceiling very high, in the low 90s, and I think the keys will lie in pitching neutralizing a lot of the strength of the other divisional teams, Marte breaking into full stardom, the supplemental power production (and here, despite the obvious of Kang and Bell, I think a key could be Dickerson), and the wildcard being Polanco.

Too many ifs to be anything like confident, but I just think the Reds are going to mean that there's more room to maneuver in the division this year. There's likely less margin for error, but the same can be said for a lot of teams. It's going to be imperative to win a lot of divisional games early, and to avoid the slide we fell into last year.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Sounds like Gio is gon a get a minor league deal with the Yankees, if I read some tweets right.

How furious should I be on a scale of 1 to Vin Diesel/Paul Walker.

I feel like I should be like a 9, but I feel nothing.

 

[T1K]

I'm surprised that they made Kang the starting 3B instead of entering the year with a platoon between him and Moran, but I'm pleased with that decision. Moran has almost no upside as an everyday player and him at 1B may light a fire under Bell's ass to be better. The Gonzalez news is expected, I just wish the Pirates had better than the mediocrity upside that Gonzalez has.

Moran doesn’t have upside? Maybe I don’t understand the intricacies of baseball, but could you expand on that take? I thought he showed good flashes last season.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Moran doesn’t have upside? Maybe I don’t understand the intricacies of baseball, but could you expand on that take? I thought he showed good flashes last season.

He's already 26, has only hit decently well at a couple levels of the minors and can't credibly play anywhere aside from 1B. All these things bring his upside down to near-zero. The Pirates have 3 guys at this point with virtually no upside: Moran, Gonzalez and Newman. Okay, Gonzalez may have a little if I squint. I will say that Moran could make a decent 5-6 year career as a bench bat as he seemed to be a credible pinch-hitter last year.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Sounds like Gio is gon a get a minor league deal with the Yankees, if I read some tweets right.

How furious should I be on a scale of 1 to Vin Diesel/Paul Walker.

I feel like I should be like a 9, but I feel nothing.

It sounds like a minor league deal with an opt-out after a month, in the event that he gets displaced. That's bargain basement value – presumably he'd take a one year deal that's incentive laden as long as it's guaranteed, and there's no reason several teams (chief among them us) shouldn't spring at that.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Moran doesn’t have upside? Maybe I don’t understand the intricacies of baseball, but could you expand on that take? I thought he showed good flashes last season.

Moran is the embodiment of "just another guy". He's not exactly a prospect, hes 26 this year, hasn't been able to show any consistant power and gives you an empty average. He's certainly an MLB player, but a platoon mate/bench guy. There probably is some power upside hiding in there, but I dont think it's much more than 15/17, maybe 20 homers at the cost of his contact rate, but he touted a swing change coming into last year that was supposed to unlock the power... he parked 11.

 

[T1K]

Ah ok I see what you guys are saying now RE: Moran, I agree.

I misunderstood the comment of lack of upside for being bad. In the case of Moran he is a serviceable hitter, but leaves something to be desired.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Ah ok I see what you guys are saying now RE: Moran, I agree.

I misunderstood the comment of lack of upside for being bad. In the case of Moran he is a serviceable hitter, but leaves something to be desired.

Yeah, the other 2 responses basically summed up what I meant. I don't think he's going to get much better, he's going to be a slightly above replacement level player going forward. He needs to improve his power for me to think he has any shot at being a good everyday 3rd baseman in the majors, he's not a good everyday player if he's only at a .750 OPS with bad defense.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Here's a fun Tuesday exercise on a day where a game that already features Brault is maybe gonna get rained out.

I wonder if Kingham might be making one last push for the #5 starter spot. If he can put together one final clean start, and Lyles doesn't really do anything to jump out and impress, then I'd really rather see Kingham get the job initially, or even send Newman to AAA and carry the extra, superfluous pitcher in order to try and piggyback Kingham and Lyles or something. Even if we did that for just 3-4 starts, it would be worth it if the move led to 3-4 wins in those games, as opposed to 1-2, with a great start from Lyles once and some stinkers.

I'd just rather not lose Kingham as depth when there's seemingly no reason to lose him. If he can't reasonably be consistent for 5-6 innings over a 4-6 week span or something, then sure, try and pass him through waivers or trade him, but for right now I'm just not convinced there will be a significant difference between him and Lyles as the starter, and Lyles is a seemingly great bet to make the bullpen even better.

(As a side note, NH should hit up Dipoto for options to move guys like Moran and Kingham).

 

[ImporterExporter]

Trout getting 430 mil over 12 years.

He's literally being paid more than half of the entire payroll of the Pirates.

Let that sink in and draw your own conclusions about what is wrong with MLB.

 

[Winger for Hire]

So you're saying Moran, Kingham, and a prospect for Haniger? I like it. Send it in.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Here's a fun Tuesday exercise on a day where a game that already features Brault is maybe gonna get rained out.

I wonder if Kingham might be making one last push for the #5 starter spot. If he can put together one final clean start, and Lyles doesn't really do anything to jump out and impress, then I'd really rather see Kingham get the job initially, or even send Newman to AAA and carry the extra, superfluous pitcher in order to try and piggyback Kingham and Lyles or something. Even if we did that for just 3-4 starts, it would be worth it if the move led to 3-4 wins in those games, as opposed to 1-2, with a great start from Lyles once and some stinkers.

I'd just rather not lose Kingham as depth when there's seemingly no reason to lose him. If he can't reasonably be consistent for 5-6 innings over a 4-6 week span or something, then sure, try and pass him through waivers or trade him, but for right now I'm just not convinced there will be a significant difference between him and Lyles as the starter, and Lyles is a seemingly great bet to make the bullpen even better.

(As a side note, NH should hit up Dipoto for options to move guys like Moran and Kingham).

Kingham is my initial choice of long-reliever. Let's keep him around, I think there's a chance he could be something useful in the future. Plus we can't be feeling all that great about the state of our upper-level minor league pitching given the struggles of Keller and loss of Hearn.

I'll continue to just scout the box scores and say that Brubaker is the most likely pitcher outside the starting 5 to make his stamp on the rotation this year.