OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Play On, Garth

[ChaosAgent]

Tangentially Bucco related. But I've made it known that my baseball allegiance has shifted towards the Indians the past few years, mainly because of family ties AND their willingness to "go for it". But these recent quotes by their owner remind me of something Nutting would say. Way to dampen any excitement for a team supposed to be competing for a world series. Baseball and the economics surrounding it are so ****ed. It's my second favorite sport behind hockey but I can't keep getting excited about teams/players when THIS is the response from small-market ownership.

He's just expressing the realities of the sport. Someone else will have more money to spend on Lindor. The Twins killed their own competitiveness for years by acting big-market with the Joe Mauer contract.

If he could somehow buy out his first 3 free agent years (a 6 year, $150m contract or thereabouts) he should consider it though.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Lol, the Joe Mauer contract didn't kill the Twins. The Twins budget killed them.

Maximizing profits, with a brand new park as well, over taking home less by signing better players is what killed them.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Lol, the Joe Mauer contract didn't kill the Twins. The Twins budget killed them.

Maximizing profits, with a brand new park as well, over taking home less by signing better players is what killed them.

Minnesota Twins - Payroll Summary - The Baseball Cube

In 2011, they went 63-99 with Mauer as their highest paid player and the 9th highest payroll in the league. He declined/was injured every season every season after that while the Twins were in the lower-middle pack in terms of payroll (average rank from 2012-2016: 19). This was basically in line with their attendance. They lost every year.

The 2012-2016 Mauer years are exactly aligned with the years that Cleveland would hypothetically try to extend Lindor for (28-32).

You may disagree but it's not "lol" worthy. Look at the chart.

 

[Winger for Hire]

It wasn't the Mauer contract, and it won't be the Lindor contract that sinks a team. It will be the owner not wanting to dig into their profits to/pockets to supplement or a front office making poor choices. The fun PR spin everyone buys into is that a single contract can ruin a team.

We're going to go round and round on this one, so I'm going to nip this early by agreeing to disagree and not clog this thread up with yet another financial nightmare conversation where the two sides will never meet in the middle.

Instead I'm going to float the idea that the Pirates would be smart to make a claim/trade for Dan Straily to solidify the #5 spot.

 

[cookthebooks]

i am consistently amazed how willing fans are to side with owners crying poor

 

[ChaosAgent]

It wasn't the Mauer contract, and it won't be the Lindor contract that sinks a team. It will be the owner not wanting to dig into their profits to/pockets to supplement or a front office making poor choices. The fun PR spin everyone buys into is that a single contract can ruin a team.

We're going to go round and round on this one, so I'm going to nip this early by agreeing to disagree and not clog this thread up with yet another financial nightmare conversation where the two sides will never meet in the middle.

Instead I'm going to float the idea that the Pirates would be smart to make a claim/trade for Dan Straily to solidify the #5 spot.

If a couple makes $80k gross but has a $400k mortgage, yes they can make it work. But when the $30k medical expenses wrecks them, was it the expense or the fact that the mortgage left them no margin for error? That's my final point.

Okay. And yes, 1 more SP is desperately needed. Lyles has convinced me he is the best option but has not convinced me that he is good. And I am 100% off any bandwagon that states that Keller is going to help us this year.

 

[ChaosAgent]

i am consistently amazed how willing fans are to side with owners crying poor

It is about margin for error. Francisco Lindor is worth like $40m/year now for the Indians/Pirates or anyone. Same as Machado was. But the issue is locking in those older years when something can go wrong. Teams with more revenue simply have more options and ability to error - like the Yankees with Jacoby Ellsbury. And even at that level, a big deal disaster can come back to haunt you...see the Cubs with Heyward.

Speaking of the Cubs: Keller for Ian Happ. Who says no?

 

[Winger for Hire]

Keller for Happ- I say no withpout hesitation, mainly because pitching is much harder to come across. Also, Keller's shine is wearing off, but he's not a giveaway by any means. Happ doesn't move me in any way. Doesn't have great power, OK bat skills, non offensive glove, some wheels but not a base stealer, OK strike zone discipline but still whiffs way too much. His ceiling doesn't seem to be too much past his rookie year.

That trade would be selling very low on Keller who still has a 1/2 ceiling. There's reason to believe his current struggles are level adjustments. He's young enough that is velo can't be upped and a new grip on his fastball could certainly flip everything around, not to mention even something as simple as working on his pitch sequencing could be the super easy fix. He rocketed through 3 levels of the minors last year and had his first ST this year, so I don't think it's unreasonable to think he had a combination of nerves and too many adjustments weighing him down. That means he realistically in a calendar year worked with something like 6-9 different catchers and at least 3 different methods of having games called; natural talent can only go so far if you're constantly changing and not comfortable.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Keller for Happ- I say no withpout hesitation, mainly because pitching is much harder to come across. Also, Keller's shine is wearing off, but he's not a giveaway by any means. Happ doesn't move me in any way. Doesn't have great power, OK bat skills, non offensive glove, some wheels but not a base stealer, OK strike zone discipline but still whiffs way too much. His ceiling doesn't seem to be too much past his rookie year.

That trade would be selling very low on Keller who still has a 1/2 ceiling. There's reason to believe his current struggles are level adjustments. He's young enough that is velo can't be upped and a new grip on his fastball could certainly flip everything around, not to mention even something as simple as working on his pitch sequencing could be the super easy fix. He rocketed through 3 levels of the minors last year and had his first ST this year, so I don't think it's unreasonable to think he had a combination of nerves and too many adjustments weighing him down. That means he realistically in a calendar year worked with something like 6-9 different catchers and at least 3 different methods of having games called; natural talent can only go so far if you're constantly changing and not comfortable.

Happ's rookie season slash line was .328/.514/.842. We'd be elated if a Josh Bell got to those levels, and Happ doesn't just play 1b. I'm just very down on Keller as I don't think a hittable fastball is as easily correctable as you do. I also don't think pitching is actually rarer to find, we've just emphasized hitting in our drafting/development for quite a while. Usually with prospects, the "tie" goes to the hitter as pitching is inherently riskier.*

*It's why we should have drafted Machado instead of Taillon in 2010. Sorry, it's true.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Happ would be one season away from getting passed up by Swags, Mitchell, and Reynolds in the OF, is already lapped by Hayes at 3rd, and maybe lateral move from Craig, all while not providing anything other than a bat.

That .514 SLG% is wholely homer dependent. He hit almost 10 less homers last season in about 20 more ABs and his SLG% plummeted to .401. You'd be foolish to try and chase that rookie season he had in a very good Cubs lineup that boasted the best hitting catcher that year, two MVP candidates (including the winner), and a cast of solid bats that slotted into the lineup roles perfectly.

Give Bell this year with a good, but kind of vanilla lineup, that looks to finally have players in their proper roles and a hitting philosophy that's not from the 1970s and I think he will give you a Will Clark lite batting line- that's to say a reasonable SLG% without a boatload of HRs and a above average to very good OBP.

I am certainly not saying that I wouldn't trade for Happ at all, just that I'm not of the thinking of trading a blue chip pitcher for a questionable young player that wouldn't have an immediate home on the team and a even hazier future. I would consider maybe a small package of Kramer/Newman (to break up the MI logjam coming through the system) and a lesser pitching prospect. Happ can have some use to the Pirates, but as of right now, he'd be a bench bat. You can't push Fraizer out of the lineup because he's their best leadoff guy and allows Marte to slot into a more natural role. He's not forcing Dickerson to the bench after a GG and 20 homers. Kang is their guy a 3B in the short term and Hayes is long term. I would imagine they are going to give Bell every chance this year to make good. The best you would have with him this year is fighting for time before Polanco comes back and scraping for spot starts in other positions.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Happ would be one season away from getting passed up by Swags, Mitchell, and Reynolds in the OF, is already lapped by Hayes at 3rd, and maybe lateral move from Craig, all while not providing anything other than a bat.

Outside of Hayes, this statement tells me that you are fundamentally overvaluing our own players. All of Swags/Mitchell/Reynolds are going to be better than Happ? I'm not a gambler but would bet my life savings on that one not being true.

I get it if you're as down on Happ as I am on Keller. He doesn't have an obvious position here but I think there would be ways to get him 300-400 ABs and a surefire spot next year if he earns it (or we flip him).

 

[Winger for Hire]

Maybe, but at least I'm dealing in hard numbers.

IF, and it's a huge IF, Happ could get his K's down to a normal range then I'd listen. But as it stands, that 30% K rate is a huge drag on his production. He increased his statcast values last season, was even Top 10 in barrels, but yet, everything declined. Why? Because even with an astronomically high .362 BABIP, that 36.1% K rate doesn't play. He outperformed every xMertic there is and still came out as league average. He somehow became more selective at the dish and inflated his Ks. And if you're taking a fair amount of walks and striking out at league high rates, you're putting wood on the ball and not producing at a needed clip for someone with 50-55 game power, 55 speed, and 45 hit tool.

I'm not saying he's not a player, he can certainly be useful, but there are giant, red flags waving pointing towards a Jose Hernandez type player.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Maybe, but at least I'm dealing in hard numbers.

IF, and it's a huge IF, Happ could get his K's down to a normal range then I'd listen. But as it stands, that 30% K rate is a huge drag on his production. He increased his statcast values last season, was even Top 10 in barrels, but yet, everything declined. Why? Because even with an astronomically high .362 BABIP, that 36.1% K rate doesn't play. He outperformed every xMertic there is and still came out as league average. He somehow became more selective at the dish and inflated his Ks. And if you're taking a fair amount of walks and striking out at league high rates, you're putting wood on the ball and not producing at a needed clip for someone with 50-55 game power, 55 speed, and 45 hit tool.

I'm not saying he's not a player, he can certainly be useful, but there are giant, red flags waving pointing towards a Jose Hernandez type player.

I'm fairly certain that the likelihood that Swags/Mitchell/Reynolds become everyday players is something like 10%, and that could probably be proven by hard numbers itself.

I don't like Happ's K-rate either; 30% is too high but he is young. Looks like he's yet another switch-hitter that should have never been allowed to learn to hit right-handed either (like Bell & Walker). He's a flawed guy but I can't ignore his rookie-year numbers and the multi-positional power potential. I'm also very, very down on Keller based on the scouting reports after virtually every single appearance this spring. I don't care if a fastball is 94 if there's no movement or deception to it.

 

[Winger for Hire]

It's easier to fix a pitch grip that a free swinger, just saying.

 

[ChaosAgent]

It's easier to fix a pitch grip that a free swinger, just saying.

I don't have a lot of faith in Keller, but with that said perusing the news it seems like Cub fans think Happ is on a downward fall. You're right that there's not an obvious starting position for him here, other than the "Pittsburgh native" position that's been vacant from 2016-2018.

I'd still make a run, but I wonder what they'd want aside from Keller. You'd think if we gave them a good bullpen arm, they'd be all ears. Crick?

 

[DJ Spinoza]

To me Happ and Keller are both the kind of players that teams wouldn't want to trade, and I doubt either team would be wanting the kind of change of scenario candidate move in this case either. If you are the Cubs, I could see moving him for some immediate, controllable bullpen help, although maybe not immediately in the division. I understand the skepticism about Keller but it makes no sense to trade him right now unless you are absolutely certain he will bust, which is a bit much to me.

Straily would definitely be a good get as the #5 type. I think everything would just look a lot nicer with Lyles as a length option in the bullpen. No way it's happening, but it would certainly be a kick-start to enthusiasm if Keuchel is ready for a one-year deal. But the Pirates Way would not be to add him, since why bolster a strength that might be just ok enough to be somewhat relevant for some amount of time?

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Not sure why this game isn't being televised, but Pirates playing early spoiler to Whitley pitching in Minute Maid Park, and now giving up a bunch of runs thanks largely to some wildness from Kela.

Hartlieb's line is not going to be pretty at all, but he seems like he's not terribly far from making an impact as a fireman type. Has been generally impressive all spring, and in this one, he came in and got two ground balls, which should have gotten out of the jam, but one was too weakly hit, and the other got through. He seems like someone who could conceivably contribute earlier than September this year. Hopefully he stays healthy.

Unfortunately, he doesn't do much for the #5SP or SS situations...

 

[ChaosAgent]

Wow, Kela just got absolutely lit up tonight.

We are going to regret trading Taylor Hearn for him.

 

[Winger for Hire]

I genuinely don't get the Kela hate from a lot of people.

 

[DanielPlainview]

Yinzers will defend last year's Yinzer Trades to the grave

 

[ChaosAgent]

I genuinely don't get the Kela hate from a lot of people.

I really, really liked Hearn. Thought as a downside he'd be an elite left-handed reliever that we'd have for longer than we'd have Kela for.

The move was made for PR, but if they knew they were going to pull out all the stops for Archer later the Kela trade was pointless. Hearn will be a better reliever than Kela in about 100 days (with some starting potential) and we weren't making the playoffs last year anyway.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Wow, Kela just got absolutely lit up tonight.

We are going to regret trading Taylor Hearn for him.

Probably not

 

[Winger for Hire]

I get you're high on Hearn, but it's not like Kela us some useless arm. You're looking at a 1 to 1.5 WAR setup man with a elite K% and reasonable BB% who has increased both his swinging strikes and freezes.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Kela isn't useless. I just think Hearn has a very high floor as a reliever and may even be able to start. I'd feel a little better about our 5th starter situation if Hearn were around. And he has upside for more.

That's not even mentioning Apostel which was also a tough loss in the trade. If Kela, XXX (Richrod/Crick), and Felipe can make us some 6-inning games that will certainly make up for a lot of it.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

For me, the downside to Kela is simply the years of control. It seems like there's almost no way he'd be extended, both because he will want to test the market, maybe as a potential closer, and because we won't pay for a reliever, outside of the Vazquez deal. Realistically, that is probably a good principle to have, given how volatile they tend to be. In this case, it would make the trade a little more coherent, because having the backend of the pen locked down will be very important.

Of course, there's some potential for that anyways after the year with Burdi, not to mention perhaps Kuhl in the medium term as well. The thing with Kela is that, say we're a bubble WC team and Burdi is having a great rookie season, with Hartlieb taking care of business in AAA or something. At that point, you might rather have some piece for Kela rather than just losing him to free agency, but it doesn't seem likely that we'd get a prospect close to Hearn's value. Although who knows, prospects are so volatile.

In the end the strategies just aren't really lining up. The only reasonable conclusion is that we're trying to lurk/tread water so that we might just be able to win should the opportunity arise. Even if a strong opportunity presented itself, I really don't think NH is going to go for broke in order to win in a short-term window. It's a constant game of shuffling in order to be competent enough to make some noise, and hope for the best. As far as strategies go, I don't really think it's terrible, but I'm underwhelmed by both the process and result. The facts are that the Cole trade looks bad, the Kela trade looks like a gamble for the sake of nothing, and the Archer trade is at least hanging in the balance (Glasnow's hype has now cooled since his command has been dogshit again all spring).