OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Offseason at the Crossroads

[DanielPlainview]

Curious what Buccos fans think of the black alternate uniform. I think it's too busy, personally. I prefer a simplified look. The differences are subtle, but I think they make a more aesthetically pleasing uniform

 

[DJ Spinoza]

yay

 

[Winger for Hire]

Cool. Now do something to address the giant hole in the lineup

 

[Winger for Hire]

Curious what Buccos fans think of the black alternate uniform. I think it's too busy, personally. I prefer a simplified look. The differences are subtle, but I think they make a more aesthetically pleasing uniform

I, personally, like the front kidney number

 

[JimmyTwoTimes]

yay

Had to type out his whole name before it popped up on google...never a good sign

 

[DanielPlainview]

I, personally, like the front kidney number

I wouldn't hate it if it stayed but I like it better with just the "P".

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I think it's basically a good sign. It's nothing to get overly excited about, but he is a competent stopgap and has some decent upside if he stays healthy. I prefer the gamble just slightly more than I do saying f*** it and starting Pablo Reyes.

But either way, I think the most "good sign" thing about it is that it's happening extremely early in the offseason, rather than sort of languishing around for a while to see how things play out. It doesn't move the needle, but it's one step in the direction of deepening the roster. Now we need to see some kind of bigger move that attempts to move the needle. There's been some counterintuitive chatter that our offense is better than we all give it credit for, and that maybe another impact pitcher would go even further, but that's a bit of a stretch to me.

We need at least some viable power additions from somewhere.

 

[bathroomSTAAL]

I've heard of Chisenhall so I'll call this a good signing.

I like the alt uniforms as is. Sure they're "busier" than the regular home and roads but still pretty tame compared to a lot of other teams. I've been meaning to pick up an alt cap, I only have the regular one without the white outline.

 

[Beauner]

Chisenhall is awesome. I cant believe the Indians didnt re-sign him. Injury issues so he's a buy low guy, but a real solid hitter. He's way too good to be a bench guy.

Edit: I also like the alternate unis, as well as the pirate patch on the sleeve

 

[Brandinho]

I remember when we drafted Chisenhall as an overslot guy but he went to college. IIRC he was a backup plan in case another overslot pick didn't sign.

I like him as a fourth outfielder. Could use the insurance because of Polanco's health issues.

 

[Winger for Hire]

I dunno about way too good to be a bench guy. Always seemed like a strong platoon mate to me. Maybe an older Adam Fraizer, which is why the signing doesn't get me too excited. In the words of John Cleese, " We already got one".

It's good to build depth with actual MLB competent players, but the lineup has about as much power as my Pony League team did.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I wonder if it might also indicate that we won't go the obvious route of trying to firm up our power numbers. On the one hand, it's an obvious need, but on the other hand, as we know pretty well, there's something to be said for trying to buck the trend and move in an interesting direction. I wince a bit at the idea of trying to have the strongest possible pitching and a lineup capable of small ball and solid-to-good hitting up and down, but that might be a strategy that's a little bit better suited for us given the roster.

I am sort of secretly hoping we'll fork over the money for Gonzalez, but we kind of have the basics of a roster covered right now. I agree that it's too early to go crazy with predictions, but even if we got a fairly healthy and productive Chisenhall, I think the likeliest best case scenario is just a hair better than last year, genuinely right on the fringes of a WC race as opposed to just outside relevance in the final 2-3 weeks.

The biggest internal impact might actually come from something like Archer, Taillon, and Musgrove all really bringing it and remaining healthy and very productive. The potential is there for all of them in varying degrees, and all firing on all cylinders would be an enormously good foundation for this team. But for impact elsewhere, we need something that seems a little bit difficult to see right now, maybe a handful of surprising trades to shuffle some pieces around a bit more. In any case, I still think tackling a major need, even if minor one, this early is a good sign. It seems like this also puts Frazier more clearly as the everyday 2B, meaning that the only potential area to really seek another solution at is SS, barring trades of course.

I'm still holding out false hope for a Bell+ for Goldschmidt shocker, but I think we'd all be so shocked it would break the thread. I'll wait a few more weeks into the winter before spilling a billion words on that impossibility.

 

[Brandinho]

Chisenhall had very strong power numbers in 2017, but they appear to be an outlier. He's a lefty, though, and could get a boost from PNC. I wouldn't be surprised if he maintains a .175 - .200 IsoP, which would be great for a bench guy.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

That's a good point. I guess he still had some injuries in part time roles, but he seems like someone who might be very useful as a bench player. I guess things can still change since we're so early in the offseason, but I'd imagine the plan might be for him to get a lot of starts while Polanco is out, and maybe sometimes shift Frazier out there, or Reyes if he makes the team, allowing for more infield flexibility with the various merry go round set of infielders we have.



Jason usually doesn't seem to make things up, but even still, I'm a bit skeptical about this sentiment... for starters, there's just a huge difference in pay between what Chisenhall will get and Gonzalez, so it's a bit weird that we'd pivot so radically. It's definitely arguable that Chisenhall on a one year deal is the much safer gamble, still with an ok amount of upside for a platoon/depth option, and it might also be worth noting that Gonzalez's versatility might be somewhat overblown, but having his kind of bat in the mix would be the kind of real qualitative push we need to seem further entrenched in the WC picture.

I still get the sense that something more may be afoot, since it's a little out of character for Huntington to be so decisive so early on. There's obviously room for another free agent addition of some caliber, but if there are more shoes to drop, it might be in the form of clearing out some of the utility options that are around. The realist in me assumes there might not be anything else left other than maybe a LHP reliever, but maybe Huntington has positioned himself to be a bit bolder in trying to remold this roster.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Well, if anything, they need to make some room on the 40 man for any new signings to officially happen. So be on the lookout for some trades or DFAs.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, rumblings and speculations that it could be Feliz, which does make some sense, though I'd still rather see what we can work out of him in a lower pressure environment. Especially with a deeper bullpen, it seems possible to bury him for a bit and see what happens, but at the same time we'll also have to try and roster Turley.

 

[Winger for Hire]

I would like to see the Pirates take a chance on picking up Cody Ponce in the Rule 5 draft. I think he could work very well in a multi-inning reliever role. He's a big frame pitcher (6'6", 250ish). He had a one year hiccup in AA last year when his walks got out of control a bit as a stater and got bumped to the pen. He was working on holding back his stuff to help him go deeper into games, so I think he is a good candidate for a Hader-ish role with an eye on working him into a starter eventually with side work and such to tighten up his curve and refine his change as well as balancing his control and velocity.

I can envision him as a 2-3 inning guy right now (which is helpful as a Rule 5 guy) with an eye on molding him into a mid/back-end starter. He has a starter's arsenal- mid 90's heater, cutter that handles lefties well, a curve that needs tightening but has been at least an average offering, and a change that is too firm most of the time but throws with the same arm action as his fastball. All the pitches he throws for strikes.

He might complicate/overcrowd the bullpen, but I really like the stuff the kid has shown when he's been right.

ETA- I also really like Forrest Wall as a speedy, LeMahieu clone, but I don't think he fits well with the Pirates current build and glut of MI yoots that need PT. If they were rebuilding, and maybe were inclined to move one of Newman/Kramer, I would be pounding the table for him.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Glad Joe Block will still be coming through with random, non sequitur positive stats this winter. RBIs are basically meaningless, although it does seem fair to say that Chisenhall does have some real offensive upside if he can stay healthy for a good stretch. He was still almost worth 1 WAR last year and barely played. The incentivized structure makes some good sense, and as long as he stays healthy right out of the gate, it seems like worst case scenario we'll really have Polanco's spot covered with a competent, above average replacement.

I sort of hope that the other shoe dropping, if it happens, clears out some of the middle and corner IF clutter. The ideal player in a lot of ways would probably still be Segura. I doubt Moran has too much meaningful trade value, but if we went ahead and made the big payment of Keller, Moran +, that would shuffle things in an exciting way, leaving 3B open for Kang to maybe surprisingly grab, and if not him, then some combination of several players--Kramer, Gonzalez, eventually Chisenhall--while we wait for Hayes.

There would still be the problem of ponying up for Segura's contract, and the idea of just moving Nova for what we can get is less appealing if Keller is totally out of the picture. Realistically, I'd imagine that if we have another addition, it will just be to go a "safer" route and sign Iglesias. That kind of asset protection probably makes sense, but I think is too much of a half measure in light of the Archer move. Pay the prospect price to get the huge impact from Segura, or pull off a shocker and get Goldschmidt as a one year rental.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Gotta say im surprised by the big scouting markup on Reyes in the fangraphs piece. Glad to see it

 

[cheesedanish87]

I actually like the Chisenhall signing, consider your just looking for a fill in for right field hes about the best you can expect.

But the Pirates still need a middle of the lineup power hitter.

Its hard to score runs against decent pitching if you need 2 or 3 hits in a inning to score a run.

It feels like the Pirates don't value home runs.

 

[Winger for Hire]

I'm trying not to be the heavy in regards to the Chisenhall signing. I just can't bring myself to really claim it as a triumph when there's the hole(s) in the 3,4,5 spot(s) and MI (and Hurdle still at the helm, but that's another rant and has been hashed over many times already).

I don't mind the small ball approach, but it does need to have some power mixed in here and there. I also don't think it's completely viable for a 162 game season as it's harder to have a true small ball team succeed when players are slumping. You need pretty flawless execution from the lineup to pull off what the Pirates (as currently built) are looking at. Having that masher or two in the lineup be able to plate at least one run by themselves can really make a big difference. One swing , one run can cover ground quickly and easily when a walk, stolen base, sac bunt, and single have a lot of moving parts to plate that same run.

 

[cheesedanish87]

With Polanco out and Harrison gone they don't even really have much team speed besides Marte to manufacture runs that way.

So you have a lineup with very little speed and very little power.

Its going to take a bunch of singles walks and doubles to score runs.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Last year, we had 157 team HRs, good for 3rd worst in the NL, and surprisingly although meaninglessly ahead of several AL teams with an extra good hitter in the lineup every day.

I think it's realistic to expect at least some power will be spread throughout the lineup, but the question is how much? If you optimistically assume that several spots can get at least 15-20 HRs, that still projects out to be about the same as last year's total. On paper, it seems like we could use about 20 more HRs in the aggregate, which equates either to a position really going overboard (let's say a 3B platoon with 35 HRs for example), or a deep enough bench that multiple guys can give you 10-12 HRs.

If things break right, we're heading closer towards the latter, but there are also a lot of worrying variables, chief among them the fact that Polanco's power could very well be sapped with this injury. Add in questions over Bell, Moran, etc., and it's difficult to escape that the best one stop shop for an improvement is Marwin Gonzalez.

One possible option would be to just pony up the cash for Gonzalez, and then find a suitor for Nova and go with Keller out of camp, or have Kingham or Brault as a temporary stopgap to cover the first few weeks we need a fifth starter. As long as there are no big injuries (which is a condition for all speculative scenarios where we make the playoffs, let's be honest, and most other teams too), that seems like the best balance of an offensive boost while also keeping the two key prospects of Keller and Hayes. But there would still be something of a logjam--presumably it would be a negative sign about somebody like Newman for starters, and maybe Moran too. Would be nice to have the DH.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Add in questions over Bell, Moran, etc., and it's difficult to escape that the best one stop shop for an improvement is Manny Machado.

FTFY....

OK, I'm finished with that joke/wish. Time to move on.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

It's definitely true, although I have been thinking that Gonzalez is even more of a fix, not just because we could realistically find a way to add his salary, but because he could initially fill in for Polanco, and then be a safety option at several positions, helping to push various people while being a power boost from a super utility player who plays almost all the time.

Rollison's suggestion that we were in on him is hard to shake with the Chisenhall signing. It obviously displaces the need somewhat, but they brought such different things. In an ideal world, the Chisenhall would just be for additional depth, and we can still add the power utility bat and either move a couple people or just let things shake out however they will in spring training. Kramer seems like he would benefit from a bit more time in AAA, which already seems in the cards now, and while there's no way Gonzalez would make sense as an almost everyday SS, it just makes sense to get the quality piece that we need and figure out the fit later. Even if we surprised a lot of people and just signed Gonzalez in an hour, banking on him as the Polanco fill-in and Chisenhall as further depth, some dominos would still need to fall to make the fit happen overall.

There has been some chatter that Cervelli might be on the trading block. From a small market perspective, it's a move that would make sense, especially if it would free up some maneuvering to get a bat like Gonzalez or Segura/Golschmidt via trade. I have the creeping sense we'll be in for a very boring winter, but there's at least some reason to manufacture hope that Huntington has positioned himself to really focus on some creative solutions. The only obvious on paper possibilities are maybe Iglesias and a guy like Sipp. Perhaps all of the next 4 months will be some speculation around that boring tale, but I hope he has a few cards up his sleeve.