OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Offseason at the Crossroads

[Winger for Hire]

Pirates trade Tanner Anderson to Oak for PTBNL and add Keller, Tucker, Martin, Brubaker to the 40 man. Now have a full roster.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Seems like the right move- Anderson didn't seem very useful.

Rays are going to designate CJ Cron apparently. There's 30 HRs, but not sure where he'd play here.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Shit, play him at 1st and move Bell to RF then rotate him between the two positions once Polanco comes back.

I'm power hungry at this point.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, I mean realistically, it's hard to defend Bell as the everyday 1B right now. I'm not sure some kind of quasi-platoon situation is a good idea, but Cron would address a huge need, virtually for free. We'd need to swing some 40-man room, but I wonder if we could pry him for somebody like Waddell.

 

[Winger for Hire]

I don't want to crap on Bell, but he hasn't made himself untouchable or entrenched himself somewhere. If there's an improvement to be had and it would force him to move, so be it. This isn't saying Bell hasn't been a good player, just not good enough to warrant cementing himself in a spot. Especially for cheap power.

I wouldn't mind DFAing Feliz, but I know the team still has hope for him.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Lol

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, I agree. Bell hasn't solidified his role to the extent that we shouldn't jump on this kind of opportunity if it presents itself. Cron would maybe be a bit pricey as a power bench bat, but if Bell plays well enough to force that into happening, it doesn't seem like the worst outcome. Not having Freese really opens up the possibilities. Osuna is maybe somewhat competent as a depth OF option, but his adding 3B to his repetoire is now something of a moot point, and Cron could take over that spot on the roster while pushing Bell to be at his best.

 

[dogthateats]

A little off topic, but I love watching the Pirates and miss watching them since I moved a couple of years ago. Do any of you guys use MLB.TV? I use NHL.tv for the Pens and it is hit or miss with service quality and there seems to be a lot of service blackouts. The blackouts are mainly bc the Pens are broadcast on National Tv and NHL network a lot. I don’t think that is the case for the Pirates (maybe it is now?). I would love to hear people’s thoughts, or if they have alternate ways to watch that are better or cheaper. Thanks.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I have had MLB.tv for the past several years, and actually I'll say that the consistency and quality has been dramatically improved over the past year or two. There are occasionally some blackouts, but it's pretty rare, and I'd imagine even less often next year because we haven't made the playoffs for a few years.

There are also ways to find streams for most games, as well as for when games are blacked out if you do have MLB.tv, if you know where to look. I'm not sure what's kosher to say on the board, but if you look for reddit boards with the name of any league and the word streams, it's usually pretty immediate to find the games.


I haven't been on twitter yet and so I have no idea what the latest is with the Segura/Leake discussion, but part of me wonders whether this news getting out was Dipoto's way of signaling even more strongly that they are open for business, and maybe starting to check with those two about which teams they'd approve a trade to. It's hard to make sense of that rumor unless something else substantial is going back to Seattle--Segura has a reasonable amount of trade value.

In fact, because of cost certainty and some consistency, I'd have to imagine Segura might be trickier to acquire than we were first thinking. I raised the question to Jason Rollison yesterday and he was tossing out names like Keller and Hayes. I think both is probably quite a bit steep, but the element of cost certainty for so long is seemingly the biggest wild card in any deal these days. I think it would probably have to start with one of them, and actually I think I could talk myself into being ok with using Keller. Segura is 28 years old and would fit immediately into the needs of these team for the window that is now open. Having Keller as a safeguard/boost to the trio of Taillon-Archer-Musgrove is arguably pretty essential, in the event that one of them gets hurt, but it's hard to figure out where else we might be able to get such an improvement of that specific position.

Even if we signed Iglesias, best case scenario for that position is that we upgrade slightly over Mercer through some combination. We'll see - I suspect the price would be too high and NH isn't even inquiring. I'm already investing more words on this hypothetical scenario and we're not even to December yet. Such is the plight of a Pirates fan in the winter, as Winger pointed out clearly a few weeks back.

 

[Winger for Hire]

 

[Winger for Hire]

Oh man... here's a fun one:

With average attendance and ticket prices, a $130 million payroll, and a terrible local television deal, the Braves turned a $100 million profit last season.

The Braves’ Profits Provide Glimpse into Baseball’s Books | FanGraphs Baseball

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Brace yourselves for a rumor at some point trickling out linking us to Segura, only to then have to wonder if he'd even waive his NTC to come here. Between this and Cron for the next few days, there should be plenty to hold us over until December.

Actually, maybe the move would be to just offer up Feliz for Cron. It does make sense to see if Feliz can turn things around, but with Vazquez, Kela, Crick, Santana, and Rodriguez all in the fold, maybe less pressing. He'd probably be on the chopping block for any addition anyways, rather than risking a prospect (Waddell is already being exposed to the Rule 5). Cron probably doesn't have a ton of value, but as a short-term investment he provides the one dimension we sorely need some of.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Another detail I forgot to mention, which is more interesting generally even as it has nothing to do with the Pirates (though I'm sure I'll cook up a 1000 word post on it in a few weeks), is that the Padres fans were seemingly immediately angling for a move for Syndergaard. He does seem to be available if the early indications are any clue, and that could be the big story of the winter meetings.

Hell, if they are going to shop Syndergaard, they should also move deGrom and just do a full rebuilt. But the Mets with a new GM are still the Mets, so who the hell knows.

I think I do like Chisenhall on a value-rebuilding contract, though one thing is that he's maybe a little less versatile and useful as a 4th OF when Polanco comes back. Haven't even looked into splits or anything, so maybe that's wrong. A pure one year, incentive-laden contract would work fine as a stopgap, and maybe even better would be having an option year in case he performs well and can stay healthy. That would provide some potential coverage for Dickerson maybe departing.

I do think we should be all over Cron's power, since we are especially weak from the right side with Freese gone, but I'm not sure how to handle it other than a straight up platoon. Can't imagine Cron can play RF, and we know Bell can't. Wonder if the Mets would take Keller + Bell for deGrom.....

 

[DJ Spinoza]

And for my first triple-post of the winter (I think...), I will true to style take up the absurd position of a deal to land Goldschmidt.



Iirc, buccoswallet is a decent source for rumors, though he says in replies that he's just spitballing this idea. Buccomike, who seems to be the source of this idea, is basically a troll I'm pretty sure, though my memory of parsing out who just says random things vs who seems to have some connections is pretty bad.

As a hypothetical idea, it's almost too good to be true. Bell could certainly turn things around and make this look bad, but I think even his ceiling is fairly well established by now. I'd trade the years of control and projection for one year of a 5+ WAR star without even thinking twice. Craig has a reasonable chance to be displacing Bell anyways, and as we are seeing with Cron, some kind of stopgap isn't even that hard to go find.

The brutal truth surrounding all of these spitball ideas is that a big trade for somebody like Goldschmidt or Segura is exactly the kind of upgrade we really need, to go along with internal improvements. With what we'll likely get -- Chisenhall and maybe another ok 2ish WAR player -- and some improvement, luck, we might stand a chance to climb closer to the edge of the wild card races, but it isn't enough to really move the needle. Especially when you consider that the Cardinals may well be in the mix for Goldschmidt or even Harper in free agency.

 

[Winger for Hire]

I can't see Waddell having a ton of value in a blockbuster deal. More of a balancing value kind of addition. No saying he's a bad player or anything, just that in terms of a blockbuster, with him, Bell, and another prospect seems speculative, in my first glance.

Or that the term "blockbuster" is being used loosely.

 

[Empoleon8771]

There's no way that they're going to trade Bell solely because he's under contract for league minimum next year. Once he starts hitting arbitration eligible? I could see it, but he's not there yet. I just can't see the Pirates trading a league minimum starter in a blockbuster, nothing there seems to be their style.

 

[Winger for Hire]

DJ alerting me to the Bell "rumor" led me on a quick Twitter search, that I promptly ended after I found this...

I also deleted the app, microwaved my phone, and called off work for the remainder of the month.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Waddell also doesn't have a lot of value as a second piece, I'd presume, with us leaving him unprotected for the Rule 5 draft.

I definitely don't think we'd move Bell in this kind of deal, and it's also pretty hard to gauge what one year of Goldschmidt is worth, especially when including players who already have some kind of track record. But with Craig potentially raising his stock, and Bell already something of an inconsistency, it wouldn't be the worst idea if the Diamondbacks would really bite on it. Bell's value is with the control and league minimum salary. Even if he got the HRs back up to 25 or so and hit for a better average, it's worth gambling that for one year of an MVP player.

But you'd have to assume that the Diamondbacks might want something more like a top-100 prospect in a deal. Though perversely, a projected-to-be-better Bell for 4 years isn't the worst idea for replacing your 1B. We're just never on this end of that kind of deal, and even the wildest winter ravings aren't too compelling otherwise...

 

[Empoleon8771]

Derek Dietrich designated for assignment

Another idea I didn't see mentioned here. Dietrich was playing LF for most of last year, but I imagine he'd be able to play RF here. He'd be another guy who can slide into a utility role once Polanco is back, he has a lot of experience at 2nd and 3rd too.

 

[Winger for Hire]

I like Dietrich; versatile and is not devoid of power. I think his power could see an uptick playing 82 games in PNC (launch angle is above league average which should, in my head, help take advantage of the Clemente Wall and 320 down the line).

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I don't love Dietrich but it's basically the same as any other kind of depth move. I don't think it would be worth complaining about, much the same as signing Chisenhall, etc.

I don't really think NH has the daringness to go after one of these impact pieces. He probably has just enough ammo to really pull it off (with Goldschmidt maybe being the least costly in one sense, but also the biggest gamble if he got hurt or something), but if past indications are any clue, he'll forge ahead by trying to extract value from guys like Dietrich or Chisenhall. Those are fine things to do, and I think my main argument is that we need to both do them and take whatever risk is out there to add a singular impact player. I'm hopeful that the Archer surprise itself may signal that a riskier Huntington has emerged, because I don't see any other option than fairly big trade to get the kind of impact that we need to really go to the next level as division and wild card contender.

I do have a reasonably sanguine view of the team's chances next year, but really it's much the same as last year except now with Archer and some big question marks around Polanco's health. There's something to be said for patience and hoping for some impact with Keller, Tucker, and/or Hayes (the window is not just 2019), but with all the possible variables, an exact repeat of last year or a game or two worse doesn't seem like the worst bet to make on what will happen if we go the route we all expect. The same thing could happen if we traded for Goldschmidt or somebody, but I think that kind of impact is the likeliest way to 90ish wins.

 

[Winger for Hire]

It's that time of the year for Fangraphs to give their takes on the Bucco's farm.

Top 35 Prospects: Pittsburgh Pirates | FanGraphs Baseball

Nothing too surprising, except myself realizing that Newman and Kramer are both 25 and we still have no idea how they will fare in the majors.

 

[cheesedanish87]

When you trade away all that young talent for Archer don't you kind of have to go all in during this window you have with him?

I wasn't a fan of the Archer trade, but since its happened you gotta try to go all in and bring in a couple bats which is needed if you want to be a contender IMO.

 

[cheesedanish87]

When you trade away all that young talent for Archer don't you kind of have to go all in during this window you have with him?

I wasn't a fan of the Archer trade, but since its happened you gotta try to go all in and bring in a couple bats which is needed if you want to be a contender IMO.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I was looking at Fangraph's projections for next season for the Pirates, and it's not looking very good. They're projected to be right at .500 (81-81) with only 3 players hitting over .270 (Marte at .282, Dickerson at .274 and Frazier at .272). Just yikes. Looking at this more makes me question if they're just overly negative with all teams, they're predicting massive regressions for a ton of players on the Pirates, but somehow they're still projected to be within 2 games of a wildcard spot.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Which projections where you looking at? Steamer, ZiPS, Depth Chart, FANS, ATC

I'm partial to ZiPS myself, but I feel it's really early to start looking at projections.

That being said, .500 is a fair projection from my read of the team as they stand.