OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Offseason at the Crossroads

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DanielPlainview

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Chisenhall is awesome. I cant believe the Indians didnt re-sign him. Injury issues so he's a buy low guy, but a real solid hitter. He's way too good to be a bench guy.

Edit: I also like the alternate unis, as well as the pirate patch on the sleeve

Pirates patch can stay if a different Pirate logo is used. The current one might be the worst logo in baseball right now. Looks like something out of Disney
 
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cheesedanish87

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I'd be fine with trading Cervelli as long as your taking his 11.5 million in salary and spending it in other places to help this years team.

Your going to lose Cervelli for nothing next year if you keep him this year.
 

TNT87

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I like the Chisenhall signing. Hopefully his injury woes are a thing of the past.
 

DJ Spinoza

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I'd be fine with trading Cervelli as long as your taking his 11.5 million in salary and spending it in other places to help this years team.

Your going to lose Cervelli for nothing next year if you keep him this year.

Yeah, I think this is the definite key. There's some logic to just going with Cervelli this year and hoping he and Diaz combine for another great season, but he's gone next year anyways. If we did go that route, it actually makes even more sense to boldly try and get a rental player like Goldschmidt, and maximize the chances for next year, and then reassess in the offseason.

But Diaz seems more than ready for the reigns, and we also don't seem to want to lose Stallings for nothing, adding to an already crowded bench. Moving Cervelli for some solid value and then reinvesting that money to fix another problem on the team is textbook small market wisdom.
 

Winger for Hire

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Today feels like a good change of pace day. Here's what would be my Hall of Fame ballot-

Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Edgar Martinez
Billy Wagner
Larry Walker
Mike Mussina
Scott Rolen
Manny Ramirez
Andruw Jones
Gary Sheffield

Also worthy of consideration:
Schilling- Just on the cusp for me and his personal stuff holds him off for now. The asshole can wait and sweat it out
Rivera- Overcrowding of the ballot this year keeps him off mine as a strategic move. No vote from me is not saying he's not worthy
Kent- Rare power at the keystone but not enough for enshrinement
Helton- My most painful omission; .316/.414/.539 should be enshrined but 1st yr on ballot and should stay on ballot at least
McGriff- Probably should and most likely would if voters didn't overcrowd the ballot because of their grudges
Vizquel- Elite level glove, very good wheels, bat was OK. Want to see Jones in before Vizquel gets my vote- Similar glove but much better bat
Halliday- Another ballot squeeze. Will probably get a bump this year because his death is recent

Bonds, Clemens, and Edgar have eaten up three votes for a lot of voters for too long and have hurt, and continue to hurt, some very worthy candidates.
 
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DJ Spinoza

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The Cervelli decision seems like it might be the next thing that needs to happen, if further pieces are going to shuffle into place (outside of maybe a depth bullpen option, and I really like the idea of Diekman on a cheapish contract there, and then just be done with it).

I think it's actually pretty straightforward: if that money can be moved towards a significant upgrade elsewhere via free agency or a trade, then you just take the leap and turn the reigns fully over to Diaz. If it won't, then just roll with the combination, and explore moving him mid-season if and when another team gets desperate.

But if we can pivot that money towards Gonzalez, or even better, Segura, then I think it's fine to get the max value we can and cash out, since as much as everybody likes him, it's very possible that an injury rears its head in April or May and we're in trouble. Houston seems like a pretty natural fit, and it would be nice to grab Tyler White if we could, picking up an actual backup for 1B and some RH power. I'd guess that given his contract situation and control, Houston might not be willing to give him up for one year of Cervelli with a bunch of other options out there, but who knows.
 

DJ Spinoza

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Would you trade Keller in a package for Syndergaard? I think I'd much rather be shopping a package with him to Seattle for Segura, but if we're going to just go for it with small ball and good pitching, a rotation of Thor-Archer-Taillon-Musgrove-Williams looks great on paper. Flip Nova and use the money for somebody like Iglesias to make sure you have good defense. Go all out for 2 years or so, and then total rebuild.
 

ImporterExporter

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Would you trade Keller in a package for Syndergaard? I think I'd much rather be shopping a package with him to Seattle for Segura, but if we're going to just go for it with small ball and good pitching, a rotation of Thor-Archer-Taillon-Musgrove-Williams looks great on paper. Flip Nova and use the money for somebody like Iglesias to make sure you have good defense. Go all out for 2 years or so, and then total rebuild.

I would 6 days a week and twice on Sunday's. Thor is an elite pitcher. Keller is completely unknown. As you said, that rotation, on paper, is good enough to win a title with.

But we're talking about the Pirates. Chisenhall is going to be their prime pick up this off season. We all know it. Grabbing somebody like Archer is the exception, no the rule.

At this point, even if the Pirates inked a lucrative TV contract soon, I'm still not convinced our payroll would change much.
 

DanielPlainview

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Not sure about trading Cervelli. He's the only guy on the team that seems to have any fire at all. He would be missed.
 

Winger for Hire

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Thor's injury history scares me some, but I wouldn't say no out of hand. I'd like the deal expanded some, maybe adding some safer players to help offset the risk or something.

Maybe even something crazy like taking on Bruce with the Mets retaining some salary? longshot with the Mets who are looking to shed and Bruce looking like ass last year and his own medical risks. But I think he could thrive with managing his PT as a 4th/5th OF and backup at 1B. I'd feel better at least having his bat on the bench.
 

Winger for Hire

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Not sure about trading Cervelli. He's the only guy on the team that seems to have any fire at all. He would be missed.

That fire doesn't any good when you're on the DL 3 times a year.

I wouldn't trade him just to trade him, but if there's a good return I would pull the trigger quick. Even if they have a FA deal hinging on moving Cervelli's salary, I would certainly do it. Diaz is ready.
 

DJ Spinoza

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I would 6 days a week and twice on Sunday's. Thor is an elite pitcher. Keller is completely unknown. As you said, that rotation, on paper, is good enough to win a title with.

But we're talking about the Pirates. Chisenhall is going to be their prime pick up this off season. We all know it. Grabbing somebody like Archer is the exception, no the rule.

At this point, even if the Pirates inked a lucrative TV contract soon, I'm still not convinced our payroll would change much.

I don't disagree really, but Thor's contract probably won't get that bad. It might be easier said than done to just move all of Nova's salary, but he's a useful enough innings eater that I'm sure we can do it.

Still, I think it's highly likely that we'll be sticking with what we've got, and maybe some quasi interesting recalamation-ish guys like Diekman.

The bigger question with Thor is what it would actually take to acquire him. Can we avoid also including Hayes in the deal? If the Mets are moving Jeff McNeil, maybe one of Kramer or Newman becomes useful for them as a supplementary piece (and I wonder if they might eventually just put Cano at 1B). If so, can Keller, Newman/Kramer, Brubaker/Kingham/Waddell, and something like Cruz get it done? If we're willing to really go all out and use Keller and Hayes, that's something a lot of teams might not want to top, although realistically teams like the Astros and Yankees, not to mention the Padres, can definitely outgun us.

It's not really worth spending too much time considering, although if we were in on the possibility of Gray, it makes sense we might still be looking at all SP options. With Thor's contract, we'd actually be able to just go all-in for the next three seasons, which coincides with Archer's contract. He's certainly a health gamble, but if Archer got his game back to a higher level and we had Thor, we wouldn't need to worry as much about home runs...
 
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ImporterExporter

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I don't disagree really, but Thor's contract probably won't get that bad. It might be easier said than done to just move all of Nova's salary, but he's a useful enough innings eater that I'm sure we can do it.

Still, I think it's highly likely that we'll be sticking with what we've got, and maybe some quasi interesting recalamation-ish guys like Diekman.

The bigger question with Thor is what it would actually take to acquire him. Can we avoid also including Hayes in the deal? If the Mets are moving Jeff McNeil, maybe one of Kramer or Newman becomes useful for them as a supplementary piece (and I wonder if they might eventually just put Cano at 1B). If so, can Keller, Newman/Kramer, Brubaker/Kingham/Waddell, and something like Cruz get it done? If we're willing to really go all out and use Keller and Hayes, that's something a lot of teams might not want to top, although realistically teams like the Astros and Yankees, not to mention the Padres, can definitely outgun us.

It's not really worth spending too much time considering, although if we were in on the possibility of Gray, it makes sense we might still be looking at all SP options. With Thor's contract, we'd actually be able to just go all-in for the next three seasons, which coincides with Archer's contract. He's certainly a health gamble, but if Archer got his game back to a higher level and we had Thor, we wouldn't need to worry as much about home runs...

I agree with all of this.

But if we were truly going all in for the next 2-3 years I'd give up anyone in the minors for Thor. Keller and Hayes together if need be. Neither of them would help this team in all likelihood in the next 2 years. Certainly not at any meaningful level given how careful we are with prospects.

I like sending out Keller and Hayes and maybe another solid prospect for Thor and then flipping Nova for a defensive gem somewhere.

Our lineup isn't great but it isn't bad and with Thor-Archer-Taillon as your top 3, you would be taken seriously by just about everyone i hope.

That's a good enough group to push for a real playoff run IMO.
 
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DanielPlainview

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That fire doesn't any good when you're on the DL 3 times a year.

I wouldn't trade him just to trade him, but if there's a good return I would pull the trigger quick. Even if they have a FA deal hinging on moving Cervelli's salary, I would certainly do it. Diaz is ready.

Disagree. There's a lot to be said for personality brought to a team, whether a player is often injured or not.

I do think it would be good to get him out from behind the plate. One more concussion could be it for him.
 

Winger for Hire

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After reading postseason reports, I don't think Hayes is really that far off development wise. Pirates wise he's at least 2 seasons out.

I'm fairly confident that he could produce at Moran's level if he was given a chance this season.
 

DJ Spinoza

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Yeah, that's why I want to protect Hayes from being moved: he seems like he's practically ready to be better than the melange of average players and DUI sex offenders we are gonna trot out there.

But I also agree with Importer -- if we are realistically interested in the big gamble of going all out for 2-3 years by getting Thor to form a big-3, with two not too shabby backend guys in Musgrove and Williams, then you do what it takes. Prospects can shift rapidly. Hayes obviously has a bunch of helium, but there was a moment when Newman had a similar amount of hype.

I honestly don't see any logic to staying a relative course and lapsing back into conservativism. Huntington has proven pretty clearly that he can assemble a solidly mediocre team without breaking a sweat and on an insane budget. Now he needs to push further and make another move similar to the Archer trade, because our window to contend is 2020/2021. We have a bunch of cost certainty spread throughout the lineup and enough cheap depth as well. Thor is an even better gamble than Goldschmidt for a year because with Thor, you have 3 chances to see a healthy, 6+ WAR year. He might singlehandedly be enough to get us into the WC race definitively. Hard to imagine us going into any huge slumps with that rotation.
 

cheesedanish87

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Somebody can correct if i'm wrong, but isn't the Pirates TV contract up after this year?

The ratings have been going down the past couple years because of the lack of success.

A tv deal is a huge part of the teams income, because of that i would think this would be the type of year where the Pirates could possibly be more aggressive in improving the team.
 

Winger for Hire

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I think it is after the '19 season. I know I've been dreading it since last offseason when it looked like they were going to revert back to meh right when ratings spikes would be key.

We'll see, but even if they were doing good, I think they might have missed the biggest part of the local TV bubble. They should still be able to negotiate a better deal, but I don't think it's going to be as good as it was thought it could be back circa 2013ish.
 

DJ Spinoza

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I was gonna try and draw up all the possible different impact scenarios we could pursue, but...



Dipoto is on crack. It sounds like one possibility is the Mets trading like 6 prospects for Cano, Segura, and Diaz. That would certainly shake things up.

I prefer the idea of getting Thor to just about anything, I think, but if the Mariners wanted to go into a full rebuild and moved Cano and Diaz, then it could put us in an ok position to try and get Segura. I imagine he'd have some suitors, a bit less than if Diaz is involved. Segura has strong trade value on his own, so it would make sense to keep him separate from Cano. If you are Dipoto, and can get a bunch of solid prospects from the Mets, and then maybe two more top-100 guys for Segura, that's at least a strong move towards rebuilding.

But it's Dipoto, so whatever happens won't be that straightforward.
 
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