The Reds payroll is around 100 million, I believe, thanks in no large part to Homer Bailey's albatross. They are clearly moving strongly on a starter, and although Kluber is way better than Keuchel in my opinion, it might make more sense for them to keep guys like Senzel and Trammell, one of whom it would take to get Kluber.
Kluber wouldn't put the payroll into astronomical standards. The Pirates have a reasonable amount of cost certainty already built into the team with guys on guaranteed contracts, and arbitration can't go totally haywire on you in the span of two or three years, which is basically what our window is. There's really no reason to mince words: not only has Nutting been unwilling to flip a few extra switches for a push when the team is hot, but he's also generally been unwilling to actually keep the payroll around 100ish million.
Without looking, I would guess Kluber's 17 million would put us somewhere around 95 million for next year. Moving Cervelli could obviously cut that further, and he'd be off the payroll next year in any case. Dumping Nova's salary and then making the bold move to get Kluber for a difference of 7 million would be exactly the kind of deal that would bolster our chances decisively, and exactly the kind of big move that should follow the aggressiveness to get Archer and Kela. We'd have locked in contracts until 2021, and depending on how things shake out with certain players, injuries, and so on, perhaps even a chip or two to move via a future trade to avoid a full teardown in 2021/2 (in my opinion we should just go as reckless as possible and do the teardown then, but because Keller, Tucker, and Hayes are all close enough to contribute in this window, not be totally reckless with them).
I get the criticisms of Cleveland, especially on the financial end, but from their perspective it's also wise small market strategy. Trading Kluber doesn't take them out of the playoffs, though they would be weaker in the playoffs. Their top prospect is a pitcher, and Bieber has emerged as a great mid-rotation piece on top of Carrasco and one more year of Bauer. If they can get a blue chip prospect, then they recycle their talent and keep moving. They have a serious upper hand on their division if they keep playing their cards right. However, Trammell is still a bit far away to help Cleveland right now. But if they could move Kluber for very good value, and then say reallocate that money towards signing AJ Pollock, it could be a win win.
And Cleveland at least sometimes operates in that manner, unlike for us, when a salary dump is just a salary dump.
