OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Offseason at the Crossroads

[pistolpete11]

Count me in for Tulo.

I think he's probably a little bit of a broken player at his age and with all the injuries he's had in his career, but he's the only somewhat realistic player that has enough talent to potentially make a real difference. That's what the Pirates need. Guys that have the potential to make a real difference.

 

[TimmyD]

Count me in for Tulo.

I think he's probably a little bit of a broken player at his age and with all the injuries he's had in his career, but he's the only somewhat realistic player that has enough talent to potentially make a real difference. That's what the Pirates need. Guys that have the potential to make a real difference.

He is pretty much the definition of a “no risk high reward” signing at this stage and that’s right up the Pirates ally. I bet he would be really good defensively and at some needed pop to the order. I would say maybe 15 home runs

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I'm totally content with Chisenhall as the eventual 4th OF, but retroactively, I am sort of wishing we could nab Tulo for league minimum and then do whatever it takes to have Marwin as the starting RF out of the gate, and eventually the super U good bat.

If we grab Tulo and he's good, our offense would look significantly different. And in some ways, the gamble in its highest end would be really that he can get back to what he's actually capable of, rather than just being a solid veteran. My thinking is that I'll take the solid veteran.

Tulo is more attractive bracketing realism, but I won't be disappointed with Ahmed still. He's arguably Mercer with elite defense, but he would amount to less of a gamble and more of a sure thing in terms of stability at the position over the next few years. But I'm hoping for the gamble and the big name, and one more move that's exciting (for me, it's Sonny Gray).

 

[wheelz87]

Tulo would be sweet.

He'd probably play 10 games then go down with a season ending injury, but that'd be a nice signing.

 

[Empoleon8771]

The more I think about it, the more and more I think Tulowitzki to the Pirates makes perfect sense. What here doesn't work for all parties? The Pirates get a former all-star and a big name as their starting SS, and they're only paying him league minimum because of his buyout. Tulo plays for a manager he won a World Series with back in the day and will get ample opportunities to start, both at SS and at 2nd base (I think you may see Frazier in the OF at some points this year). In Tulo's last full season, he hit 24 homeruns and was good defensively as a SS. Newman and Gonzalez get a great mentor for at least a year, even if he isn't that effective as a starter anymore.

I don't see anything here that doesn't make sense. Sure, Tulo is a gamble because of his injuries, but if not for his injuries, we wouldn't even be having this discussion right now. There is nothing here that doesn't make sense.

 

[TimmyD]

The more I think about it, the more and more I think Tulowitzki to the Pirates makes perfect sense. What here doesn't work for all parties? The Pirates get a former all-star and a big name as their starting SS, and they're only paying him league minimum because of his buyout. Tulo plays for a manager he won a World Series with back in the day and will get ample opportunities to start, both at SS and at 2nd base (I think you may see Frazier in the OF at some points this year). In Tulo's last full season, he hit 24 homeruns and was good defensively as a SS. Newman and Gonzalez get a great mentor for at least a year, even if he isn't that effective as a starter anymore.

I don't see anything here that doesn't make sense. Sure, Tulo is a gamble because of his injuries, but if not for his injuries, we wouldn't even be having this discussion right now. There is nothing here that doesn't make sense.

I 100% agree with all of this. I told my buddy they were in the running and he told me that he’ll believe it when he sees it because the organization would never make a move like this for a big name. Normally I would agree but two huge things favor the Pirates in this scenario, the first is that they wouldn’t have to spend a ton of money on him which is right up their ally and second from all of the reports I have seen Tulo wants to sign with a team that will give him starts which the Pirates have the ability to do. He doesn’t want to be a bench guy

 

[Empoleon8771]

Looks like it's going to happen, neat

So question, if Kang returns to his 2015/2016 level, and Tulo stays healthy and performs like he did in 2016, is this team a playoff team?

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, weirdly it's the fact that the gamble is basically entirely predicated on his health that sells me on this. The downside to this deal is still not really a big problem: he gets another bad injury and then is around as a veteran leader for the younger IFs.

Obviously, if he does get hurt, the depth is pretty much nonexistent, which is why I'm seeing various rumblings about wanting another SS as further depth, and while in the abstract that's a lovely idea, it's totally unrealistic. Fact is, Newman has been a top prospect for a while, and has shown some good things in the minors. His ceiling seems to be more clearly a backup utility player, but weighing in too decisively on a small sample size is also bad when the player struggles somewhat. He'll get some chances next year, and even though Tulo's health makes it a bigger gamble that he'll be thrust into the spotlight sooner and in a bigger role than anyone would want, I think it's the right kind of gamble.

As I've been saying, I'm still totally fine with Ahmed, but there are real questions there, and the upside seems to be Mercer's bat with much better defense. Galvis maybe splits the difference and is the safest bet, but part of the bet with him could be that Newman or Gonzalez force the issue and make him a pretty expensive utility bat. With Tulo, you hope that he can replicate the role that Freese played here. It just seems to work for all sides.

An idea I've seen kicked around Pirates twitter which I do like is trying to nab Flores as someone who can come in and backup all the IF positions. I like the idea a lot, as it gives another RH bat with some pop, but I think Gonzalez would basically be ticketed for this kind of role. Whatever we do at SS, I expect it to be the last move involving the position players, with us then shifting to pitching. Luckily the relief market has been glacial. I'd be totally happy to nab Diekman and then take a run at getting Sonny Gray for the rotation (here's an unlikely-ish scenario, but maybe the Yankees would be interested in Gonzalez and a prospect if they don't sign Machado).

 

[Winger for Hire]

Looks like it's going to happen, neat

So question, if Kang returns to his 2015/2016 level, and Tulo stays healthy and performs like he did in 2016, is this team a playoff team?

Closer, but they will still need Bell to become more of a power presence and the pitching to, at the very least, not regress.

Still a lot of ifs and a low floor, but the ceiling is raised some.

ETA- I've been a huge Flores fan for a while and he mashes lefties.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Meanwhile in the catcher market...

There's enough quantity out there that it makes Cervelli's market extremely vague, but the Dodgers are a desperate team and so I could see them signing off on an overpay for Cervelli. NH should be in a position to insist on that, so I think we have to see how the Realmuto situation plays out. For whatever reason I keep an eye on Dodgers pitching (well, for fantasy reasons), and I was never too enthralled by Stripling, but admittedly I'm only talking about the vague feel I had from following the stat lines. The numbers seem hard to ignore, but he had the feeling of more like a Trevor Williams kind of pitcher whose strikeouts went through the roof.

If he would be on offer, you absolutely have to take the deal, but that does put us into a bit more of a pickle in terms of offensive depth. Then you are two injuries away from 2 of the starting 9 being Newman/Gonzalez and Stallings. That's why as much of a small market asset coup as it would be to get Stripling for Cervelli, I kind of prefer being the team to get Gray. That keeps us in the best C position as possible, and Gray is a partial lottery ticket stopgap to Keller. If we fall way out of it, it's likely that we can still move Cervelli for something decent at the deadline. But, if Striping is really on the table, then I don't see a way not to take the deal.

 

[TimmyD]

Meanwhile in the catcher market...

There's enough quantity out there that it makes Cervelli's market extremely vague, but the Dodgers are a desperate team and so I could see them signing off on an overpay for Cervelli. NH should be in a position to insist on that, so I think we have to see how the Realmuto situation plays out. For whatever reason I keep an eye on Dodgers pitching (well, for fantasy reasons), and I was never too enthralled by Stripling, but admittedly I'm only talking about the vague feel I had from following the stat lines. The numbers seem hard to ignore, but he had the feeling of more like a Trevor Williams kind of pitcher whose strikeouts went through the roof.

If he would be on offer, you absolutely have to take the deal, but that does put us into a bit more of a pickle in terms of offensive depth. Then you are two injuries away from 2 of the starting 9 being Newman/Gonzalez and Stallings. That's why as much of a small market asset coup as it would be to get Stripling for Cervelli, I kind of prefer being the team to get Gray. That keeps us in the best C position as possible, and Gray is a partial lottery ticket stopgap to Keller. If we fall way out of it, it's likely that we can still move Cervelli for something decent at the deadline. But, if Striping is really on the table, then I don't see a way not to take the deal.

Has there been anything linking the Pirates to Gray? I would love that move. Then maybe trade Cervelli for another bat instead of a pitcher

 

[Winger for Hire]

I think there's been something like a dozen teams said to have checked on Gray, but I don't think the Pirates have been one.

 

[Empoleon8771]

So assuming they sign Tulo, the Pirates depth chart will be something like:

C: Cervelli/Diaz
1B: Bell
2B: Frazier
3B: Kang/Moran
SS: Tulo
OF: Dickerson/Marte/Chissenhall
Utility: Gonzalez/Reyes

Does this sound about right? I imagine Gonzalez will be mostly a 2nd baseman and SS and Reyes will mostly be a 4th outfielder. Your backup 1B will be Cervelli, your backup 2B and SS will be Gonzalez and your 4th OF will be Reyes is the read I'm getting. I think it's also possible that Frazier is used a fair amount in the OF this year, with Gonzalez playing 2nd and Frazier playing OF at times.

 

[Winger for Hire]

I'm not a fan of having your starting catcher be your only option to backup your 1B. Means they would have to carry 3 catchers to be comfortable. But that generally looks to be their current make-up.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I'm not a fan of having your starting catcher be your only option to backup your 1B. Means they would have to carry 3 catchers to be comfortable. But that generally looks to be their current make-up.

I feel like a better way to put it is that Cervelli is the primary backup, but Moran is the secondary backup in case of a problem that comes up with the catchers. Gonzalez also can play 3rd, so Moran as the other backup 1B solves the problem of not having enough catchers on the roster.

Speaking of which, I wonder if they just treat Moran as the backup 1B instead of Cervelli. Platooning him and Kang doesn't make much sense based on their career splits, especially if Kang regains form.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Has there been anything linking the Pirates to Gray? I would love that move. Then maybe trade Cervelli for another bat instead of a pitcher

I can't recall precisely -- Winger might be right, but I have a vague memory of us being linked as interested very early in the offseason. It's possible that Lyles may offset that, but given that the reported interest would date from the time when Nova was on the team, and this stuff about the opener, I wouldn't read too far into the Lyles signing. We have seemed to have some interest in upgrading the starting pitching, and Gray makes a lot of sense since he's not a big commitment and has the upside to be more like a front line guy, the kind of pitcher we hope Keller turns into in short order.

The Yankees will probably take the best trade, but by guess is that he ends up in San Diego or Cincinnati, and maybe we're in the mix too. But it's hard to know what his market is. The Yankees reportedly asked for Trammel from Cincy, which is totally absurd, especially since everyone knows they will trade Gray. It seems possible that his market won't move for a while, or that it could move rapidly. If I had to guess, there are a lot of interested teams but not a lot of teams willing to pay a reasonable price. Gray should still command some value, given his stats away from Yankee Stadium, but I have trouble thinking they can get a top 100 prospect for him.

I don't know that we are the best fit, asset-wise. It seems like this would take something that could be of reasonable value, but would be a calculated gamble on our part to really bolster the rotation for this season. Something along the lines of Hearn, which would be a blow to longer-term depth, but not catastrophic. Maybe Escobar could come close, though not sure it's enough. The depth options of Kingham (especially bc out of options), Holmes, Waddell, etc just don't seem to do much. Maybe Gonzalez and Burdi, but the Yankees needing to roster both makes it tough. Who knows what they really want, but they aren't getting top-50 or probably top-100 prospects unless a team gets pretty desperate. The Padres have the depth to make this type of move and not sweat it, so I'd worry a little bit about our involvement, but NH should certainly be moving in this direction after he solves the SS situation. It's a stopgap that like Tulo almost makes too much sense to me.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Which Pirates Pitchers Could Use Openers? - The Point of Pittsburgh

This is a pretty solid overview of the opener strategy with some basic numbers for the four/five starters. We should definitely move in this direction, especially if we get the same performances from RichRod and Crick, and add Lyles to the mix, to still have Kela and Vazquez to close out a lot of games. The only issue I can think about is roster assembly: if we're going to carry three catchers, and we might need an extra arm in the pen, that will be tricky, especially assuming we bring in Tulo or Ahmed and Newman and Gonzalez both make the team. Maybe Reyes is edged out, which isn't the end of the world, but I'd like to see what he has as the 4th OF and as a speed option.

It's too early in the offseason to really speculate too much about the specific roster makeup, but utilizing the opener seems to make some sense, even if we went out and got Gray. In fact, although the Rays didn't really deploy it in this way as far as I understand, I like the idea of experimenting with it as part of a five man rotation, spotting certain guys and changing it up based on the lineups someone will face. The shape it would have to take needs to be slightly different than what we saw from Tampa.

 

[pistolpete11]

The more I think about it, the more and more I think Tulowitzki to the Pirates makes perfect sense. What here doesn't work for all parties? The Pirates get a former all-star and a big name as their starting SS, and they're only paying him league minimum because of his buyout. Tulo plays for a manager he won a World Series with back in the day and will get ample opportunities to start, both at SS and at 2nd base (I think you may see Frazier in the OF at some points this year). In Tulo's last full season, he hit 24 homeruns and was good defensively as a SS. Newman and Gonzalez get a great mentor for at least a year, even if he isn't that effective as a starter anymore.

I don't see anything here that doesn't make sense. Sure, Tulo is a gamble because of his injuries, but if not for his injuries, we wouldn't even be having this discussion right now. There is nothing here that doesn't make sense.

I don't know what other teams have to offer him, but yeah the Pirates seem to make sense. I think Hurdle being here is the biggest factor...well...other than money not really being a factor.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Honestly I am sort of expecting the move now, provided there's no weird bad blood between him and Hurdle that couldn't be squashed as of today. I can't think of another team which would give him the opportunity to play SS, potentially everyday. If that's what he wants, this is basically his option. Seems plausible that he could have a change of heart and go to the Bay Area in order to be more of a backup infielder, but all indications since forever have been that he wants to start, first only as SS and then in other capacities. Have to assume that this desire is even stronger now that he's rehabbed for over a year and got cut.

We have a lineage of this type of thing too, with Burnett, maybe Martin to some extent, etc.

There's certainly big risk that at the end of April, this amounts to basically doing nothing, but other divisional teams constantly get lucky with this kind of thing, most recently the Cubs with Hamels rejuvenating his career. 2019 should be our turn, to have a season of the 2014 / 2015 versions of Tulo and Archer.

 

[Brandinho]

The biggest thing that people neglect to consider with moves like this is opportunity cost. So let's explore the opportunity cost of getting Tulo, since the financial cost is irrelevant. If we sign him, we can't trade for Nick Ahmed. We also can't sign Jose Iglesias or Freddy Galvis. We were never going to sign Machado or trade for some burgeoning young star, so we don't even have to consider that. Anybody else have a problem taking a chance on a former star instead of a 2 WAR stopgap? Yeah, me either. Let's do it.

 

[Winger for Hire]

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Looks like nothing going yet, but Rollison's latest is that it's Tulo's camp who wanted to move quickly, and that maybe a deal could still happen as early as late tonight. All signs basically point to the fact that he's there if we want to take the gamble - I just can't see an analogous situation, especially with a manager he knows well. The Bay Area teams would all be U spots, and maybe Oakland has some pull as potentially more playing time since there's an opening at 2B, he'd be the starting SS here out of camp. Not even quite inside track, but the starting job as long as he can stay healthy through camp...

 

[Winger for Hire]

Reports are the he's looking fit and healthy

 

[DJ Spinoza]

The news in Brown's report that he'd go home before being a utility player seems to bode well. The only realistic option I can think of would be Oakland offering him an inside track at the 2B job everyday, which might be enough to sway him, but basically everyone else would have a further path towards everyday playing time. The Yankees are perhaps an exception as well, but have to assume they might be in on Machado, and certainly not offering any kind of regular playing time. He could fill in for Gregorius for a bit, but I don't see it.

Rollison seems to think it will spill over into a couple of days. Guess we're officially on #TuloWatch.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I'm on board with Tulo. Take a flyer on a guy with high upside.

Newman's September had to be the most disappointing part of last year for NH; they basically anointed him to at least not suck once he got to Pittsburgh. He sucked even worse than a skeptical fan would expect, and he can't be credibly started if the team wants to pretend they are competing next year. Gonzalez is partially here because he's just a new name without the baggage with the fan base, but probably isn't much better. Now Tucker is looking more promising but he's a year away. I would have liked to make a run at Segura but these are the Pirates (plus the Ms GM was obviously fixated on fallen-top-prospect JP Crawford).

So, yeah if these are our choices please sign me up for 15 games of Tulo before he gets hurt.