OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Good Vibes Only

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MrBrightside

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Here's the Cruz video, worthy of a separate post



Looks very Gregory Polanco 2014-y. Let's hope it goes better than that did - guys with swings that long can struggle against elite MLB velocity.

Has he been moved to the OF and if so, how's that going? Guess he hasn't been based on the prior post, which is crazy...pretty sure the tallest SS in ML history was 6'4" or so.
 

ChaosAgent

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Looks very Gregory Polanco 2014-y. Let's hope it goes better than that did - guys with swings that long can struggle against elite MLB velocity.

Has he been moved to the OF and if so, how's that going? Guess he hasn't been based on the prior post, which is crazy...pretty sure the tallest SS in ML history was 6'4" or so.

TBH Polanco (fairly or unfairly) is why I don't rate Cruz that highly. I'm not sure if being 6'7 is a feature or a bug. Either way it's hard not be intrigued with the six potential MLB players at Altoona (Cruz, Martin, CSN, Bae, Castro, Mitchell). Here's hoping they are filling out 2+ everyday lineup spots for us in a year's time.
 

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Cruz has the same problem Polanco does (long limbed and long hitting cycle). The difference that I see immediately is that Cruz can go the opposite way a fair amount. Even for homers like the one DJ just posted. He isn't nearly as late getting to the ball as Polanco. I think that's more brain processing type stuff, but Cruz does seem to have a faster bat than Polanco.

I've said for years, I think Polanco, physically, is one of the most eye catching players I've seen come through here in years and I think it has mesmerized some people for too long, because he's conversely one of the "dumbest" ballplayers as well. Just atrocious baseball IQ and situational awareness.

Either way, I'm not yet sold on Cruz being a dominant hitter at the MLB level, because he does strike out more than you'd like to see and his body type is very tough to predict long term. If he can bring the K's down over the course of this year some and walk a bit more, while increasing the long ball, I'll start to wade into the more star territory. But make no mistake, his ceiling is extremely high, as DJ said as well. Just has a low floor, like Polanco.
 

ChaosAgent

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Cruz has the same problem Polanco does (long limbed and long hitting cycle). The difference that I see immediately is that Cruz can go the opposite way a fair amount. Even for homers like the one DJ just posted. He isn't nearly as late getting to the ball as Polanco. I think that's more brain processing type stuff, but Cruz does seem to have a faster bat than Polanco.

I've said for years, I think Polanco, physically, is one of the most eye catching players I've seen come through here in years and I think it has mesmerized some people for too long, because he's conversely one of the "dumbest" ballplayers as well. Just atrocious baseball IQ and situational awareness.

Either way, I'm not yet sold on Cruz being a dominant hitter at the MLB level, because he does strike out more than you'd like to see and his body type is very tough to predict long term. If he can bring the K's down over the course of this year some and walk a bit more, while increasing the long ball, I'll start to wade into the more star territory. But make no mistake, his ceiling is extremely high, as DJ said as well. Just has a low floor, like Polanco.

Ultimately Polanco is a failed prospect that just hasn't migrated from his original organization due to his contract. If we were able to move him, we would have and he'd be some other organization's Dustin Fowler or something.

What I'm most disappointed in Greggy about is that he never learned to hit lefties. Somehow I thought he'd be able to do it but nope. Where I feel most sorry for him is the strike zone called against him. Maybe due to his size but it is consistently ATROCIOUS and he'll get in 1-1 counts that should be 2-0 constantly because an ump called a strike 4 inches off the plate.

Edit: in short Polanco himself has dampened a lot of the enthusiasm around Cruz here.
 
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Ultimately Polanco is a failed prospect that just hasn't migrated from his original organization due to his contract. If we were able to move him, we would have and he'd be some other organization's Dustin Fowler or something.

What I'm most disappointed in Greggy about is that he never learned to hit lefties. Somehow I thought he'd be able to do it but nope. Where I feel most sorry for him is the strike zone called against him. Maybe due to his size but it is consistently ATROCIOUS and he'll get in 1-1 counts that should be 2-0 constantly because an ump called a strike 4 inches off the plate.

Edit: in short Polanco himself has dampened a lot of the enthusiasm around Cruz here.

Well, naturally you're going to have a bigger K zone for big hitters. But yeah, there's no doubt he's been on the raw end of some of those really bad calls. I hate the reliance on tech but with so many bad/wrong calls made a night, it's hard to argue against robo umps, strictly for balls and strikes.

Polanco shows his poor baseball IQ beyond the box. We've seen the numerous gaffes in the OF, on the baseball, him falling and flailing like he'd never played the game before or was hammered drunk.

Cruz looked smooth at SS on numerous routine grounders when I saw him 2 weeks back in Harrisburg. Did boot one of the tougher ground balls but it was absolutely an error on his part. Just lifted the glove to early and topped the ball moving forward on it. His height works against him in this regard.

I really think RF or 1B is the way to go for him at the MLB level. He's already 205/210 and still looks like an alien. He's skinny. I'd love to see him add another 20-30 lbs onto the frame and to do that, you really want to put him on a corner. RF makes a ton of sense because he is smoother than Greg, has an absolute howitzer arm which obviously plays well in RF. I don't see a big problem with him moving there. 1B would be another option, again because it would allow him to bulk up and his size/length would be a nice presence at that spot. His length alone probably saves a few errant throws over the course of a year.

Plus I'd rather have a higher end defense player at short. It's such a critical position defensively and you really should strive for a strong presence there. I don't think Cruz is horrible but he's certainly not a plus defender at this stage. Maybe he'll gain that consistency but I think he's best served playing elsewhere long term.
 

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Cal Mitchell (really rooting for him since he was kind enough to foul a ball my way 2 weeks ago that I was able to give to my son who was there as well) with a beautiful, take what you give me swing, to drive in 2. Stayed behind the pitch and put it right where he wanted. Him becoming a decent MLB'er would be a nice addition to our OF. Especially with Swaggerty being gone for the year.

 

ChaosAgent

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Well, naturally you're going to have a bigger K zone for big hitters. But yeah, there's no doubt he's been on the raw end of some of those really bad calls. I hate the reliance on tech but with so many bad/wrong calls made a night, it's hard to argue against robo umps, strictly for balls and strikes.

Polanco shows his poor baseball IQ beyond the box. We've seen the numerous gaffes in the OF, on the baseball, him falling and flailing like he'd never played the game before or was hammered drunk.

Cruz looked smooth at SS on numerous routine grounders when I saw him 2 weeks back in Harrisburg. Did boot one of the tougher ground balls but it was absolutely an error on his part. Just lifted the glove to early and topped the ball moving forward on it. His height works against him in this regard.

I really think RF or 1B is the way to go for him at the MLB level. He's already 205/210 and still looks like an alien. He's skinny. I'd love to see him add another 20-30 lbs onto the frame and to do that, you really want to put him on a corner. RF makes a ton of sense because he is smoother than Greg, has an absolute howitzer arm which obviously plays well in RF. I don't see a big problem with him moving there. 1B would be another option, again because it would allow him to bulk up and his size/length would be a nice presence at that spot. His length alone probably saves a few errant throws over the course of a year.

Plus I'd rather have a higher end defense player at short. It's such a critical position defensively and you really should strive for a strong presence there. I don't think Cruz is horrible but he's certainly not a plus defender at this stage. Maybe he'll gain that consistency but I think he's best served playing elsewhere long term.

I agree with Cruz at right. Maybe 2nd depending on how things shake out, though I'm pretty optimistic on Castro/Gonzales in short order. Peguero is pretty clearly the SS of the future in my mind. Just a matter of if he can get here by '23.

Hopefully between Cruz, CSN, Swaggerty and Mitchell we can at least get 1 other above-average regular to go along with Reynolds out there, then (gasp) sign someone to make a formidable OF.
 

DJ Spinoza

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With Cruz, I think you don't make any shift just yet. He needs to stay focused on dialing in the ability to hit and I don't think the defense is really a negative feature of his game. He's got good instincts and moves really fluidly / with quick twitch, so even though he's racked up some errors, I would just keep him at SS all throughout this year.

Ideally, you want to see him get a bump to AAA later in the summer, and I think if you judge that the defense will be an issue in MLB, then maybe you look into having him start getting reps in CF or RF. But for right now he's a very good athlete and there aren't exactly great options at SS in front of him. Maybe Tucker will flip a switch, but so far there aren't any more signs of that than we already had.

This should be coupled with the fact that in all likelihood, there will be a universal DH by the time Cruz debuts. You can slot him as partly there and partly at SS, and then maybe see about the OF if the defense is truly an issue. I just think in general, you don't make the move in advance, especially since it's better for him to remain focused on the bat. As long as the bat is there, the DH will give you the flexibility to get a look at him at SS while also picking up occasional starts in the OF. It's a good assumption that Peguero will be a stronger defender, so you can prepare for him to eventually displace Cruz, but since the current SS situation is so bad, I don't think you have to anticipate it.

IMO errors don' tell the full story on his defense, and overall with him, I think the biggest thing to refine right now is to not let the game get ahead of him, and remain consistent with an approach in all facets of the game. The AA manager mentioned something similar to this a little bit ago. I caught a game a few weeks back where he made a poor throw to 1B and you could kind of tell he was just out of sorts at the plate, whereas for the past two weeks or so, he's been much more locked in. Earlier in today's game, he battled through and ignored junk in order to get a pitch that he could rip into center for an RBI single. He just needs to stay dialed in and hone a consistent approach, and for right now I think the surest path to that is not to also have him learn a new position mid-season. I really think I wouldn't explore that until the winter or next spring training. And I wouldn't think of putting him at 1B, where his athleticism would basically be wasted.
 

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Cruz finished 4-5 w/ that homer and 4 RBI's. OPS now on the plus side of 900. I doubt he finishes June in AA if he goes on a tear. Would ideally like to see him get a full month or so in at Indy before the year closes out.

Mac pitched well, 1 hit and 2 BBs w/ 5 K's over 5 innings of work.

Martin in a massive slump. That's what you fear from him. Streaky hitting.
 

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With Cruz, I think you don't make any shift just yet. He needs to stay focused on dialing in the ability to hit and I don't think the defense is really a negative feature of his game. He's got good instincts and moves really fluidly / with quick twitch, so even though he's racked up some errors, I would just keep him at SS all throughout this year.

Ideally, you want to see him get a bump to AAA later in the summer, and I think if you judge that the defense will be an issue in MLB, then maybe you look into having him start getting reps in CF or RF. But for right now he's a very good athlete and there aren't exactly great options at SS in front of him. Maybe Tucker will flip a switch, but so far there aren't any more signs of that than we already had.

This should be coupled with the fact that in all likelihood, there will be a universal DH by the time Cruz debuts. You can slot him as partly there and partly at SS, and then maybe see about the OF if the defense is truly an issue. I just think in general, you don't make the move in advance, especially since it's better for him to remain focused on the bat. As long as the bat is there, the DH will give you the flexibility to get a look at him at SS while also picking up occasional starts in the OF. It's a good assumption that Peguero will be a stronger defender, so you can prepare for him to eventually displace Cruz, but since the current SS situation is so bad, I don't think you have to anticipate it.

IMO errors don' tell the full story on his defense, and overall with him, I think the biggest thing to refine right now is to not let the game get ahead of him, and remain consistent with an approach in all facets of the game. The AA manager mentioned something similar to this a little bit ago. I caught a game a few weeks back where he made a poor throw to 1B and you could kind of tell he was just out of sorts at the plate, whereas for the past two weeks or so, he's been much more locked in. Earlier in today's game, he battled through and ignored junk in order to get a pitch that he could rip into center for an RBI single. He just needs to stay dialed in and hone a consistent approach, and for right now I think the surest path to that is not to also have him learn a new position mid-season. I really think I wouldn't explore that until the winter or next spring training. And I wouldn't think of putting him at 1B, where his athleticism would basically be wasted.


Yeah, I don't think he needs to move any time soon. But to maximize him from a physical standpoint, keeping him at short, where you want lean, is not the best course IMO. First off, I simply don't think he's a plus defender at short as it is. He doesn't look out of place, but I'd much rather see him focus on the bat once he hits AAA. He very well could man SS at the MLB level for a bit until one of the guys in lower A make the jump up and I do think we have better true SS options in the system. Getting Cruz to RF ideally, allows him to add more weight and you still get an elite trait that plays well (arm) at the position. But for now, keep him at SS, let him gain more confidence there and if he does end up sticking great. But in the likely scenario he does move, he'd at least have a wealth of minor league ball to fall back on in the event you needed to shift some things around tactically.
 

ChaosAgent

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Yeah, I don't think he needs to move any time soon. But to maximize him from a physical standpoint, keeping him at short, where you want lean, is not the best course IMO. First off, I simply don't think he's a plus defender at short as it is. He doesn't look out of place, but I'd much rather see him focus on the bat once he hits AAA. He very well could man SS at the MLB level for a bit until one of the guys in lower A make the jump up and I do think we have better true SS options in the system. Getting Cruz to RF ideally, allows him to add more weight and you still get an elite trait that plays well (arm) at the position. But for now, keep him at SS, let him gain more confidence there and if he does end up sticking great. But in the likely scenario he does move, he'd at least have a wealth of minor league ball to fall back on in the event you needed to shift some things around tactically.

Why couldn't he play second, also? I know he has the arm for right but 2nd is still a more valuable position defensively. I'm guessing Castro/Gonzales seize that 12-13 months from now but we should rule our Small Forward out.
 

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Why couldn't he play second, also? I know he has the arm for right but 2nd is still a more valuable position defensively. I'm guessing Castro/Gonzales seize that 12-13 months from now but we should rule our Small Forward out.

He could. No doubt.

I just think his best overall value defensively would be in RF given his physical traits/maximizing those physical traits. And again, I think we have some guys in lower A ball that feature better as true infielders.

Like I said, if he does perform well enough to stick, then I don't have a problem with it. Just don't want to sacrifice defensive WAR simply because a player can field a position.
 
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MrBrightside

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How Big Is Too Big for Shortstop?

First off, Cruz would be 2-3 inches taller than the 2nd tallest SS in major league HISTORY, and there are reasons that guys who are 6'7" aren't normally middle infielders - not many people who are that tall have the requisite lateral quickness for the position. In addition, the Pirates literally have 2 OF over A-ball that remotely figure to be part of the long term OF (Reynolds and Swaggerty) while the organization's deepest collection of players is at middle infield.

Cruz is not going to be a middle infielder over the long haul and it makes way more sense to have him start transitioning to his ultimate position sooner rather than later.
 
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How Big Is Too Big for Shortstop?

First off, Cruz would be 2-3 inches taller than the 2nd tallest SS in major league HISTORY, and there are reasons that guys who are 6'7" aren't normally middle infielders - not many people who are that tall have the requisite lateral quickness for the position. In addition, the Pirates literally have 2 OF over A-ball that remotely figure to be part of the long term OF (Reynolds and Swaggerty) while the organization's deepest collection of players is at middle infield.

Cruz is not going to be a middle infielder over the long haul and it makes way more sense to have him start transitioning to his ultimate position sooner rather than later.

Correct.

I will say in the games I've seen Cruz, including live, he moves better than you'd expect from someone 6'7''. He's smooth enough when you factor in the size but he's not silk by any means. The error he made in Harrisburg was a case of him short arming a slower ball in front of him. Was consistent otherwise. Made the easy plays and you can tell he has a cannon.

But again, the key factor for me is where he needs to be physically to maximize his offensive output, especially in the HR department. He's SKINNY. He's got a lot of room to put some weight on and while you don't want someone getting too jacked that it limits the flexibility, some added muscle has to be in the cards moving forward. Even a little weight on a frame like his will slow the small area quickness down and if he ends up 230-240 as I'd wager, he will simply size himself out of the position. Plus, I do think Peguero has a real shot at being the guy at SS for us in 2ish years. Gonzo along the same timeline for 2B/DH.

Santiago Florez is DEALING tonight:

6.0 so far
0 runs
2 hits
2 walks
10 K's
60 of 84 for strikes is ridiculous

Head 0-0 with 3 walks. Even though he's been tight roping the Mendoz line most of the year, he's walking a lot and that always intrigues me in a young guy. Hopefully the hits start falling soon for him. He's one of the few guys we've dealt for recently who hasn't been at least good/great to start 2021.

Endy Rodriquez hit his 5th of the year.

Peguero drove in 3.
 

ChaosAgent

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Correct.

I will say in the games I've seen Cruz, including live, he moves better than you'd expect from someone 6'7''. He's smooth enough when you factor in the size but he's not silk by any means. The error he made in Harrisburg was a case of him short arming a slower ball in front of him. Was consistent otherwise. Made the easy plays and you can tell he has a cannon.

But again, the key factor for me is where he needs to be physically to maximize his offensive output, especially in the HR department. He's SKINNY. He's got a lot of room to put some weight on and while you don't want someone getting too jacked that it limits the flexibility, some added muscle has to be in the cards moving forward. Even a little weight on a frame like his will slow the small area quickness down and if he ends up 230-240 as I'd wager, he will simply size himself out of the position. Plus, I do think Peguero has a real shot at being the guy at SS for us in 2ish years. Gonzo along the same timeline for 2B/DH.

Santiago Florez is DEALING tonight:

6.0 so far
0 runs
2 hits
2 walks
10 K's
60 of 84 for strikes is ridiculous

Head 0-0 with 3 walks. Even though he's been tight roping the Mendoz line most of the year, he's walking a lot and that always intrigues me in a young guy. Hopefully the hits start falling soon for him. He's one of the few guys we've dealt for recently who hasn't been at least good/great to start 2021.

Endy Rodriquez hit his 5th of the year.

Peguero drove in 3.

A lot of the organization likes Florez definitely add him to the "stock up" list.

Any word on Brennan Milone? Fearing another TJS
 

DJ Spinoza

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Malone is back in Bristol or on one of the developmental teams. I can't find the link right now but I remember reading that they saw him as very rusty when he appeared in Bradenton and decided instructional league was better for right now, given that he hasn't pitched in a game for a very long time at this point. Definitely something to keep an eye on but pretty par for the course with very young pitching prospects I think.

With Cruz, I think there's a lot of overthinking going on with him due to how exciting he is. I think it should just be one thing at a time. He's still young for the level and right now should just be focused on continuing the strong performances consistently, staying within himself and what his natural abilities allow him to do when he executes. He needs to perform for another month or so and show that he's ready for the next big pitching challenge. Errors don't really tell a full story on a player and if you watch him, he has the instinct and quickness to be adequate at short stop right now.

You can and likely will move him to an outfield spot later on, but there's not a ton of urgency in that regard. It's more important that he consistently hits, and if he's able to maintain the healthier strikeout rate he's shown over recent weeks, then that's a nice bonus, though part of his game is still going to be striking out at a fairly high clip. For now I think it's just one thing at a time: keep hitting and stay dialed in at the plate in order to earn the AAA promotion. He'll then be at that level for fairly long I think (I wouldn't expect to see him until June 2022 at the very earliest) because MLB pitchers could eat him up with breaking stuff. He's doing very well lately with just holding off on that and forcing good counts to get good fastballs, so a few more weeks and he'll be ready for AAA pitching.
 
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Yeah, I don't see a need to rush him out of the position. My overview is more of where he'll end up for the obvious reasons.

I'd let him play at SS as long as he doesn't regress below average or impact his offensive profile negatively.

My hope for him is that he becomes the hitter people talked about Polanco being.

And I absolutely think Cruz has a better swing. You can see that with the bat speed, and his ability to drive pitches with little effort out to center or oppo. He's quicker through the zone and you can see a distinct "loop" in Polanco's swing path to the ball, whereas Cruz takes a shorter route, despite being even longer than Greg. I think adding some muscle mass to his frame will only aid in the power department, but again, it has to be a smart addition and I'd hope the professionals running thing know how to maximize that for Oneil.

Comp in swings:

Polanco:



Cruz:

 
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DJ Spinoza

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Yeah, that's pretty much where I am at right now. I don't doubt that's he's going to move at some point (and also DH some -- he's essentially a more athletic Judge, though comparisons like that have to be measured bcause his floor is a bust), but I don't think it's something to start obsessing over and I really hope that BC and the player development team is patient with him. The hit tool/bat to ball stuff far outweighs worrying over his position, because if he cannot hit, nothing else matters and he'll be a bench player at best.

And even when you look at a lot of star shortstops, they make errors and can be defensive liabilitis at times. If Cruz's offense hits, he'll give you plenty of value unless he gets the yips or something, and then you can develop a plan to move him if/when Peguero is knocking on the door.

I agree about the swing. I think a lot of it with him is just getting an approach dialed in so that he can stay in the moment, recognize pitches, and execute well. He has so much raw power that he doesn't need to do more with his swing, as the oppo bombs point out. He's flicking his wrists and the ball goes almost 400 feet.

I think a good example came in his second AB today. Bae had just had a long AB and worked a walk, which I think is how the first inning started too (Bae got on in any case). You could see the pitcher not want to give in at all and get punished, but Cruz laid off the breaking stuff, got himself into a hitters count, and smashed the ball up the middle for an RBI single. I'd say that besides a few pitchers, Cruz is the player I've paid most attention to with my MiLB tv subscription, and I have seen him do similar things at times against LHP too. Perez (the Curve manager) has praised him for the approach and talked about how that's a big thing they are working on.

I've also seen the inverse, where he gets into a chase mode trying to do too much, the swing gets long and he has a couple Ks on bad breaking balls. He's moved way away from that over these past two weeks or so and I think putting that in the rearview mirror will be the big step to go beyond AA pitching. There might be something with the launch angle to eventually work on, but he almost gets some cheat room given that his insane power wll produce high EVs and probably turn even more ground balls into hits.

He's settled in well and these next few weeks are crucial in determining if he'll be taking a big step forward this season. IMO he and Thomas are easily the two most exciting players in the system but it's going to pay off to be patient with both of them. I don't think we should put artificial limits in front of Cruz, but he's still probably got a reasonable stay in the upper minors ahead of him. I would be shocked if he gets anything like a cup of coffee, but he certainly has the abilities to force the question a little bit, and has been consistent in saying his goal is MLB this year. For now I think it's essentially about one step at a time. Keep the hitting performance steady and he won't be in AA for too long. There will be some interesting decisions ahead this summer, since a number of those guys could stand to be promoted to AAA.

Final related note just for anyone who has MiLB tv: these Richmond games are pretty solid, much higher production than the Altoona home games, so you don't have this strange VHS looking camera that doesn't really show you any of the action at all.
 
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Gallatin

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What a relief to see O'Neil Cruz take a big step forward in the batter's box. He's vibing "rookie Barry Bonds" to me lately with his new approach, has a real chance to do something special now IMO. Was getting kinda sceptical....

And I don't care how hot he gets this month, I'm not sending him to AAA till July at the earliest.

4-for-5, 3B, HR, 4 RBI, 3 SB - he's been building towards this kind of performance in recent weeks. Cruz is the 1st "no-ceiling" player I've seen come up through the Bucco's system BTW. I never saw Bonds in the miners, only at Three Rivers.
 

DJ Spinoza

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Yeah, I don't think it has to be rigid necessarily, but it would be good to have him get a nice chunk of games where this performance has continued – another few weeks, adding up to a solid month or so. It seems like a good bet that he'll face an adjustment period at AAA, so I think just having the clear, extended success at AA will be good in that case.

My expectation is that Tucker will be optioned back to AAA today in order to make room for Hayes, though I think someone has to be DFA'd as well, so maybe Tucker will continue to live as a bench player in Pittsburgh. But it certainly would make sense if we saw Frazier trade + permanent MLB role (relatively speaking) for Tucker + Cruz firm AAA SS. I guess if we waited til the deadline, that might keep Cruz down longer than ideal, but Frazier could be moved earlier I think, and if none of this happens, there's nobody who is going to block Cruz when it's time to promote him.

Sort of wild to think that, unless it's postponed, today is the first game Hayes will play in front of fans at PNC Park.
 

ImporterExporter

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I have little hope for Tucker at this point. Looks like a pro ball player. Doesn't perform though. Last bit of hope went out the window when a guy with a very subpar track record through most of his career starts celebrity hunting on social media and ends up with a singer....yawn. Good preemptive move though considering he hasn't shown anything that resembles a starting MLB level player. Gravy train baby!
 

Empoleon8771

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Tucker has a -0.4 WAR in 6 games played. At this point, I'm not seeing any reason to suspect he'll be anything for the Pirates. Can't hit, can't get on base, can't defend...not exactly an inspiring player to give a roster spot.
 
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