OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Good Vibes Only

[MrBrightside]

Yeah, had Tucker not been a #1 pick he'd have been written off long ago. The ladies may love him but he's not a major league baseball player.

 

[cookthebooks]

Yeah, had Tucker not been a #1 pick he'd have been written off long ago. The ladies may love him but he's not a major league baseball player.

he seems like he should just transition into the broadcast boost already tbh

 

[ImporterExporter]

I do think he's been jerked around, obviously mainly under the previous regime and frankly don't think he's in the plans with the new one. They know what he is and isn't and although he's bounced around and not always been given a consistent go as a starter, when he does play and the few stretches he's been active, not shown well. Guy simply can't hit to be an effective starter. Maybe he'll carve out a bench role somewhere but I just don't see it here. Cherington/Shelton don't seem to be keen on him and at this point, I don't blame them. He's had numerous chances and outside of very brief moments, has largely been well below average, mainly as a hitter.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

WAR is almost totally meaningless in small sample sizes.

He doesn't look very good, but I'd pump the brakes on any firm conclusions about him. I don't really know what the plan is with him – I get mixed messages from the decisions that have been made. Special instructional work in Bradenton reads like we are trying to coax something out of his approach at the plate, but calling him up to get sporadic play off the bench reads like we have totally given up on him as an everyday player.

That may well be the case, but I think it's not true to say that he can't defend. He's a better defender than Newman. None of he, Newman, or Gonzalez look like any kind of answer, but at some point during this meaningless season, I think you might as well give Tucker a consistent run of games, which he's never really had. Even how we handled him last year didn't really make any sense, unless it was simply to try and get enough looks at the plate to try and get him to make adjustments.

I'm not optimistic at all, but Gonzalez is a bench, defense-first player and Newman is probably a utility bench player. There's nothing to lose from finding out whether Tucker is one of those two or something else, but I can't get a read on how interested management is in that. The impression I get with him and someone like Oliva is that they don't really think much of them.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Actually, I'm going to double down a little bit more and defend Tucker on principle. I'm not too convinced that he's been given many chances or that he'd be long written off in other circumstances. Sorry if this comes off as projecting, but I think for a variety of reasons he's low-hanging fruit as a kind of scapegoat player.

He's only just about to turn 25 and has had a maybe-100 AB sample size a few years ago of playing at his primary position for an extended stretch, during which Hurdle jerked him all over the lineup. Then he has a September look and a sporadic look in the OF during the covid season.

He might not be anything, but his prospect profile was a strong defender with ok feel to hit. In the upper minors and brief MLB stints, he has the batted ball data which suggests there's good power in the bat. It's just not the kind of guy you throw away when you are a basement team, especially when the options in front of him are a defense-only bench player and a do-nothing slap hitter.

I was surprised to see him get the promotion this year, since my assumption was that he needed to force the issue at AAA, and there was nothing outside of a few games to indicate he was trending in that direction. I don't think he should be handed a starting role, but at some point, we already know what Newman is and what Gonzalez is. Once Frazier is traded, there's nothing to lose by putting Newman at 2B and playing Tucker at SS for the better part of two months.

 

[ImporterExporter]

WAR is almost totally meaningless in small sample sizes.

He doesn't look very good, but I'd pump the brakes on any firm conclusions about him. I don't really know what the plan is with him – I get mixed messages from the decisions that have been made. Special instructional work in Bradenton reads like we are trying to coax something out of his approach at the plate, but calling him up to get sporadic play off the bench reads like we have totally given up on him as an everyday player.

That may well be the case, but I think it's not true to say that he can't defend. He's a better defender than Newman. None of he, Newman, or Gonzalez look like any kind of answer, but at some point during this meaningless season, I think you might as well give Tucker a consistent run of games, which he's never really had. Even how we handled him last year didn't really make any sense, unless it was simply to try and get enough looks at the plate to try and get him to make adjustments.

I'm not optimistic at all, but Gonzalez is a bench, defense-first player and Newman is probably a utility bench player. There's nothing to lose from finding out whether Tucker is one of those two or something else, but I can't get a read on how interested management is in that. The impression I get with him and someone like Oliva is that they don't really think much of them.

WAR is meaningless in small samples, absolutely. I think the eye test is pretty conclusive though. He just looks lost at the dish. The last 2 years especially have not been kind to him. Had some intrigue after that AZ fall league run in 2018 but it's just never really clicked beyond a month here or there over the last 4 odd years.

The fact the new regime, who've had ample opportunity to give him reps, haven't, is pretty telling. Newman and EGon are not every day players by any means but they've gotten a lot more time and I just don't believe they'd be giving inferior players more time if they thought Tucker was a more valuable presence.

It'd be great if he somehow comes out of nowhere to provide solid contributions. I just don't feel it with him at this point.

Hope I'm wrong!

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I don't really disagree or hold out a lot of hope for Tucker at this point, but he's one of the main question marks I have in terms of the new regime. Why did he get specific instruction in Bradenton and then only a small number of games at AAA only to come up to Pittsburgh and play like 3 games? It just doesn't make a lot of sense to me – I think he's been more of a mixed bag at the plate. He had a game the other day where he had several good ABs, working counts, etc., and then other times he's pressing.

If he doesn't play when he's up here, it seems reasonable that he's going to press even more. We've given longer runs to guys like Alford and Fowler when they pretty clearly didn't have it... I just don't get what the strategy is with him. Presumably if there's something in his approach that they want to unlock, then he can show that by being consistently dialed in in AAA, so I don't get the decision in the first place.

In any case, I don't think he'll necessarily go down today, but I'd be surprised if he's still on the team once Moran and Evans are ready. Even though he's had some ok pinch hit performances, I wouldn't be too surprised if Difo is DFA'd today, and then next week, Craig is DFA'd and Tucker is optioned. Apparently we can also open up a 40-man spot by recalling Oliva and putting him on the 60-day IL, but regardless, with Hayes, Evans, and Moran all on the horizon, there's really no way he lasts longer for this conversation to matter too much.

Maybe it was just another brief taste of MLB to keep him fighting or something. In my mind the most logical thing is to wait until there's more ABs to go around after Frazier is traded, and have it be contingent on adequate AAA performance. I don't really think it's a good idea to hand someone a job, but as long as he's even OK in AAA for 4-6 weeks, IMO we should just pull him back in late July and give him a run at the end of the season. Unless we trade for a shortstop or something, I don't see a better use of the last months of the season. Get an even clearer look at him in the field and at the plate for 6 or 8 straight weeks.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I think some of the early returns on BC's moves are still a little hazy, but at the same time it's rare to see guys immediately pop off in the way that Rodriguez, Contreras, and Escotto (who I think has gotten on base every game this year) have so far. It's difficult to get too worked up over low-A stats, but both Rodriguez and Escotto had prospect writers in the corner and it looks like they could both emerge as top prospects in the system over the course of this season.

 

[ImporterExporter]

I think some of the early returns on BC's moves are still a little hazy, but at the same time it's rare to see guys immediately pop off in the way that Rodriguez, Contreras, and Escotto (who I think has gotten on base every game this year) have so far. It's difficult to get too worked up over low-A stats, but both Rodriguez and Escotto had prospect writers in the corner and it looks like they could both emerge as top prospects in the system over the course of this season.

Don't forget his draft picks last year. Gonzo was looking GREAT before the broken finger. Hope he doesn't taper off in 2-3 weeks. Mlodzinksi has been great. Jones has shown his stuff already according to reports, albeit in limited sample sizes.

 

[ImporterExporter]

I had forgot about that quintessential Polanco mishap until youtube had it on the top of my recommended list just a minute ago lol.

I'm sorry, I know it seems like I'm piling on but it's a HOF fail!

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Listened to a sort of podcast/interview thing with Kiley that happened on twitter just now, and here's my takeaway from the brief remarks about the Pirates and by extension the top of the draft:

- Mentioned at one point that he thinks it's 85% likely that we take one of Mayer or Lawler.

- Sounds like the next domino to fall will in all likelihood be the price guys set on themselves, particularly Mayer. My read between the lines is that if Mayer is slightly underslot, he is who everyone thinks we'll take. If he's 8M or so, then it's more uncertain.

- The other options are Leiter and Davis. Seems really clear that they form a consensus top-4, after which things get murky.

- Rocker is a real wild card and it sounds like his performance in the SEC tournament really hurt him. I guess there are a lot of rumors that Boston likes him, but it's unclear who that is in Boston, as they don't think he fits Bloom's profile at all. Some mention that KC could have a shot at him at pick 7, and even talk that he could completely slip and go back to school, though they don't think that's realistic at all.

- Someone asked about Watson and they mentioned (at this point Eric had joined) that he's really tooled up but think he belongs in a tier with Brady House, and will be the 4th SS to go. It does sound like the power showing up is raising his profile, and that there's a strong hit tool here -- I want to speculate that maybe he'd be an underslot play at 1.1 if Mayer's price is high, but that doesn't seem connected to any of the scuttle from any scout.

That basically covers it, they really didn't talk about the pick much and spent a lot of time talking about other guys. There's a prep LHP pitcher named Frank Mozzicato who is a huge riser that might be someone to keep an eye on as a pick 37 possibility, though from the talk and what I've read elsewhere, he will likely end up in the first round.

This is just what I gleaned, but I also don't really think it's too firm just yet. It sounds like a lot depends on the price tags guys put on themselves, and then maybe a clearer sense will emerge. I haven't really seen anything that comes off as definitive, and I think it's just a little early. It does seem very likely that Rocker has no chance to be in play for our pick, though the CWS being before the draft this year provides some wrinkle and CWS play could be a factor, I think more for Leiter than Rocker at this point but I guess you never know.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Rocker will end up in Boston and dominate. Going to suck.

Watching Mayer and Lawler highlights, I prefer Mayer. Better swing, more power potential I think. Looks the part. But I really cringe at taking a HS bat 1.1 when you have the college options that we do.

 

[OnMyOwn]

It would be nice if this was the year there was a Strasburg or Harper coming out. No decision making needed. Just pick the clear BPA.

looks like there’s a ton of interchangeable guys for that top spot this year, though. Kinda sucks.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I'm still fully onboard with Leiter, hoping he steps it up again during the CWS and the little hiccup looks like just that, but I will say that taking a prep prospect will be somewhat of a good test for the development team. It is hard not to look at Bobby Witt Jr. and drool, but at the same time, even prep players who click in the minors can end up as not quite huge difference makers in MLB.

I suspect there's some sense in which BC desires that – not to say that he'd turn his nose up at an obvious star in Hayes simply because he predated his time, but it's also undeniable that whoever this pick is going to be will be majorly attached to him in the same way that Cole was attached to NH by virtue of being the 1.1.

I still get the impression that a fair bit is up in the air and the main sense of the Pirates pick is that they are willing to chase the highest ceiling and do not care about the timing. FWIW I also get the impression that Bloom won't take Rocker unless the owner forces him to.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Hayes back in the lineup, playing the hot corner and hitting 2nd.

 

[MrBrightside]

Two straight lost seasons is certainly suboptimal.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Two straight lost seasons is certainly suboptimal.

Not that this really matters, but this injury definitely knocks Swaggerty down the list of our prospects. He was just much closer than many of his peers in the outfield.

Also, since I've witnessed Jake Guentzel play like a total starts-with-p-ends-with-y post-shoulder issue, I can't help but let that cloud my thinking.

I had Swaggerty, Yajure and Cruz as #5-7 (no particular order) before these injuries. Now Yajure probably moves to 10 or something and Swaggerty goes to the 13-15 range.

 

[ImporterExporter]

I don't get the hype surrounding Swaggerty. Was a reach when we picked him and his bat has never really shown up to date. Had trouble staying above .700 OPS in 18 and 19, obviously lost last year and now major shoulder surgery? What were we supposed to get excited about?

His minor league career was less impressive than Oliva's over the same period (18 and 19). Oliva hit better, at higher levels, and is every bit the fielder and runner that Swaggerty is. The difference? One guy was a top 10 draft pick and the other a 7th rounder.

Obviously the injury sucks. I just hope it isn't a crutch that people fall back on if he never does anything moving forward. He didn't exactly light the world on fire at any stage prior to this. I mean I wouldn't even consider anything above average to date.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

I don't get the hype surrounding Swaggerty. Was a reach when we picked him and his bat has never really shown up to date. Had trouble staying above .700 OPS in 18 and 19, obviously lost last year and now major shoulder surgery? What were we supposed to get excited about?

His minor league career was less impressive than Oliva's over the same period (18 and 19). Oliva hit better, at higher levels, and is every bit the fielder and runner that Swaggerty is. The difference? One guy was a top 10 draft pick and the other a 7th rounder.

Obviously the injury sucks. I just hope it isn't a crutch that people fall back on if he never does anything moving forward. He didn't exactly light the world on fire at any stage prior to this. I mean I wouldn't even consider anything above average to date.

from what i understand about swaggerty hes a plus defensive outfielder. That gives him a solid base and really reduces the pressure on the bat.

Hes also hit well above league average in the minors with the exception of 71 Abs of A ball in 18.

A- 140 wRC+
A. 35 wRC+
A+ 120 wRC+
AAA 109 wRC+

That combined with some untapped raw power give you pretty good right tail outcomes if everything goes well and a built in floor with the defense.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

I don't get the hype surrounding Swaggerty. Was a reach when we picked him and his bat has never really shown up to date. Had trouble staying above .700 OPS in 18 and 19, obviously lost last year and now major shoulder surgery? What were we supposed to get excited about?

His minor league career was less impressive than Oliva's over the same period (18 and 19). Oliva hit better, at higher levels, and is every bit the fielder and runner that Swaggerty is. The difference? One guy was a top 10 draft pick and the other a 7th rounder.

Obviously the injury sucks. I just hope it isn't a crutch that people fall back on if he never does anything moving forward. He didn't exactly light the world on fire at any stage prior to this. I mean I wouldn't even consider anything above average to date.

As far as a comparison to Oliva

Swaggerty has more power potential, a bit faster with a bit higher defensive ceiling with skmilar reaults despite being 2 years younger.

If someone thinks Oliva is a 4th OF with right tail outcomes of an average regular it would make sense that Swaggerty should be viewed as a ho hum regular with right tail outcomes of a good all around player

 

[DJ Spinoza]

All the reports on Swaggerty are that his defense is 70-grade, and the run grade is really good too. I think Oliva got somewhat of an unfair rap, i.e. we really could have given him a run at some point last summer even if we had to find room on the 40-man, but given Swaggerty's alt site performance + brief power showing + the dearth of options, it's a huge blow. The only solace is that it may not affect the defense and speed too much because it's his non-throwing shoulder.

Florez got a writeup in the FG prospect report: Daily Prospect Notes: 6/3/21

 

[Scandale du Jour]

Hayes back in the lineup, playing the hot corner and hitting 2nd.

Great news!

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

All the reports on Swaggerty are that his defense is 70-grade, and the run grade is really good too. I think Oliva got somewhat of an unfair rap, i.e. we really could have given him a run at some point last summer even if we had to find room on the 40-man, but given Swaggerty's alt site performance + brief power showing + the dearth of options, it's a huge blow. The only solace is that it may not affect the defense and speed too much because it's his non-throwing shoulder.

Florez got a writeup in the FG prospect report: Daily Prospect Notes: 6/3/21

Yeah Florez is a guy that needs pushed through the system to see if hes worth protecting.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Agree to disagree on Swaggerty. He's not hit well above average over any year relative to the league or level and less than you'd expect out of the 10th overall draft pick to date. Like I said, the only sample size that excited me was the AFL and even this year, he wasn't exactly off to a roaring start when he went down.

He struck me as an eventual bottom of the order, defensive oriented OF'er or 4th OF long term. Didn't like the pick then and he's done nothing to make me feel better years later.

We'll see. Hopefully he'll be back 100% next year and can repeat AAA.

Now let's pray Hayes can stay healthy!

 

[ImporterExporter]

Top of the order is a legit contender type 1-2-3.

Then you see what happens.

I dislike Polanco. So late to the ball. That middle in 93 should have been the fly out/sac fly. Ugh. Borderline strike 3 but you can't stand there.

Then Stallings forgetting he had 2 strikes and watches a f***ing very hittable fastball go right by him.

We have pieces. We just need more.