OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Good Vibes Only

[DJ Spinoza]

The results were not amazing tonight but I am starting to like what I see out of Wil Crowe. He has the pitch mix and command, and the fastball seems to play really well. Not going to crown him much of anything but we should absolutely see as much as possible of him this year in the rotation to find out what's there. Wonder if the Pirates had some kind of plan in acquiring him beyond just having some more depth to eat innings (this had been my assumption).

Down on the farm: ho hum quality start for Yajure in Indy, looked breezy from the boxscore. Mitchell hit a homb for Altoona, and Cruz poked a single down the line and also drew two walks. This won't show up in the stat sheet but in his first AB, I was watching the broadcast and he absolutely hit a laser missle that the left fielder somehow got a few steps back on and threw his glove at to rob him of a sure hit.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Not sure I understand this move, but I guess it's still TBD what the corresponding move is. The reason I say that isn't really for any other reason than that I don't know how he'll get enough ABs to make it worth it. I'm perfectly happy to give him a run, even though the Indy performance has not really been great, but If he's just going to sit on the bench, I don't really get it.

 

[Gallatin]

Not sure I understand this move, but I guess it's still TBD what the corresponding move is. The reason I say that isn't really for any other reason than that I don't know how he'll get enough ABs to make it worth it. I'm perfectly happy to give him a run, even though the Indy performance has not really been great, but If he's just going to sit on the bench, I don't really get it.

I wonder if he'll go for "movie star" after the season. He may have the skills for it - at least to me the ceiling looks way higher than for MLB...

 

[Gallatin]

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I wonder if he'll go for "movie star" after the season. He may have the skills for it - at least to me the ceiling looks way higher than for MLB...

I am still intrigued by the raw tools + athleticism but it's hard to be optimistic at this point. He's still fairly young – he sort of had the transiton years a young player has wiped out in part by last year, so my expectation was kind of that we were going to just let it ride in AAA for a while longer and see where he is at when we inevitably trade Frazier. Him called up now is essentially an indication that he's the latest warm body for the short bench.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

First Swaggerty, now this. Looking forward to Priester's TJS soon.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

20-0... ouch!

 

[cookthebooks]

Wilmer difoq

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Rocker 7IP, 101 pitches, 3H, 2 ER, 2BB, 11K, 1WP, W

Leiter 6IP, 89 pitches, 3H, 2ER, 2BB, 8K, 1HBP, ND

Those are the final lines of the regular season for the two. Strong showings, though I think both did give up a HR. To me, the questons that have been coming up are still nitpicky -- I buy into the argument that none is an otherwordly, top top flight prospect, but that's the absolute norm with almost every MLB prospect. They both put up very strong overall seasons with some hiccups, but nothing overly extended.

I think you can still draft either for ultimate ceiling, and, even if there's some argument to be made about a positon player given other things being equal, we've seen two top position players drop like flies in the past week with injuries, not to mention Hayes. I think one of these two should still be the guy. Everything lines up really well, and to me unless you really think Mayer has an enormous ceiling and will go underslot like Correa did, you need to take the best player. If BC wants to take the poition that that player is someone other than these two, that's fine, but I think it's going to be a mistake to pass both of these guys up.

 

[Gold Diamond]

Those 3 years last decade were nice. At least we have had one winning season since then!

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Not a great line once again from Keller but I am starting to like where he's headed. Second straight start where he had the slider that he needs to have, and his command and sequencing have both really improved from where they were in the beginning of the season. He made a terrible mistake pitch to Acuna to start the game (no reason to throw him a strike, let alone middle middle), and then a not-that-great-one to Albies based on where his heat zone is (missed his spot badly), and that's sort of what the Braves do.

I don't really think he's out in the void right now, so to speak. The pieces are all really starting to get there and I think in general in May, he's started to find some sustainable success, but the problem has been not putting it all together consistently. However, unlike earlier bad starts, today he was really sharp for about 85% of the time. In particular I think he did a good job of moving the fastball back and forth on the edges of the zone, generating weak contact when he needed to.

Can he continue to improve? That's the big question, and it's plenty fair to stay skeptical of him, but as a young pitcher, I like where he's been trending in his last several starts. Ideally, we will bring up Yajure or Ponce for a spot start next week so that Keller's next start aligns with the Rockies visiting PNC, which presents about as good an opportunity as possible for him to have a strong start. But overall, I think that despite the variance between starts and even within starts, it hasn't been quite as pronounced over his May starts.

 

[Gallatin]

Santiago Florez - yet another high upside arm toiling in A-ball - was born in 2000, signed out of Columbia in 2016, and is now beginning to crush in Bradenton.

Through 12.2ip he's produced 14.2 k/9, 3.6 bb/9, 1.18 whip, 2.84era, 2.23fip, and 3.03xfip with a .213ba against. Big fastball & curve is the foundation - both hold 60fv grades from Fangraphs. If he cleans up the command Flores could really be something, another big kid with a nice spin rates.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Keep an Eye on Santiago Florez This Season

Santiago Florez - Stats - Pitching | FanGraphs Baseball

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Haven't seen any of him but I did see JC Flowers pitch a few innings today and he looks to be a great RP prospect. Great fastball and a put away slider, both of which he can command well. I think he threw a couple changeups but he looked quite polished to me. Greensboro's pitching staff is loaded (I was reminded today of Austin Roberts, who Longenhagen noted had a huge velo uptick at the alt site and has an error "pointing way up"), but as he was a college player, wouldn't mind a fairly aggressive promotion. He's still relatively green at pitching, but some of NH's final draft picks look to be quite interesting.

 

[cookthebooks]

in honor of good vibes boy was brubaker putting together a nice string of starts before the last two

 

[Gallatin]

Haven't seen any of him but I did see JC Flowers pitch a few innings today and he looks to be a great RP prospect. Great fastball and a put away slider, both of which he can command well. I think he threw a couple changeups but he looked quite polished to me. Greensboro's pitching staff is loaded (I was reminded today of Austin Roberts, who Longenhagen noted had a huge velo uptick at the alt site and has an error "pointing way up"), but as he was a college player, wouldn't mind a fairly aggressive promotion. He's still relatively green at pitching, but some of NH's final draft picks look to be quite interesting.

It's amazing how many high upside arms there are in the lower miners right now. We may not have many close to the League, but from A-ball down we are stacked with pitching prospects

 

[MrBrightside]

It’s not going to be popular, but if Hayes isn’t going to sign an extension they should seriously consider flipping him in the next 9-12 months. This organization is 4-6 years away from competing and they’d have to look to move Hayes after the 2025 season (you aren’t going to let him go into his walk year unsigned). With the nearly complete dearth of talent above the low minors, Hayes is going to be leaving before they are competitive.

 

[ImporterExporter]

It’s not going to be popular, but if Hayes isn’t going to sign an extension they should seriously consider flipping him in the next 9-12 months. This organization is 4-6 years away from competing and they’d have to look to move Hayes after the 2025 season (you aren’t going to let him go into his walk year unsigned). With the nearly complete dearth of talent above the low minors, Hayes is going to be leaving before they are competitive.

Flipping Hayes at this point, or in the next year, makes zero sense. He's got almost his entire service time still tied to Pittsburgh and he's coming off what would seem to be a fairly significant wrist injury which is about the worst type you can have on a hitter (position player).

I'm honestly expecting this injury to completely derail his career and him end up becoming a giant what if player moving forward.

Either way, I don't think we're THAT far off, IF this team invests in college pitching and hits on a few arms, namely the starting variety.

We have some capable arms that are bottom of the rotation starters right now, we just need to hit on Rocker/Leiter (and not draft a damn HS player) and then see a Contreras develop over the next 12 months into at least a good #2. And he's not the only arm capable of being that. Just need to develop them the rest of this year and next and by 2023 you could have a team at least capable of pushing for a playoff spot. By 2025, legitimately contending. IF we invest in the right mindset.

 

[MrBrightside]

Flipping Hayes at this point, or in the next year, makes zero sense. He's got almost his entire service time still tied to Pittsburgh and he's coming off what would seem to be a fairly significant wrist injury which is about the worst type you can have on a hitter (position player).

I'm honestly expecting this injury to completely derail his career and him end up becoming a giant what if player moving forward.

Either way, I don't think we're THAT far off, IF this team invests in college pitching and hits on a few arms, namely the starting variety.

We have some capable arms that are bottom of the rotation starters right now, we just need to hit on Rocker/Leiter (and not draft a damn HS player) and then see a Contreras develop over the next 12 months into at least a good #2. And he's not the only arm capable of being that. Just need to develop them the rest of this year and next and by 2023 you could have a team at least capable of pushing for a playoff spot. By 2025, legitimately contending. IF we invest in the right mindset.

2025, maybe, but in what world is this organization remotely capable of contending by 2023? There are literally 2 guys above A-ball in this organization that you can feel confident they will be good major league regulars by 2023 - Hayes and Reynolds. Brubaker might be a back-end SP. Counting on guys who are in their first years in AA in 2021 to be impact players in the majors by 2023 is silly - guys who don't take a year or two to settle in at the major league level are the exception, not the rule. If you want to compare it to the last nucleus of the 2013-2015 teams, if this was 2011, Cutch and Walker and Pedro were all in their second or third seasons in the MAJORS, they were adding a clear-cut dominant #1 overall pick in Cole that June, and it still took the additions of Burnett and Martin and Liriano to actually become competitive. This organization is much more comparable to where it was in 2007 or 2008 than where it was in 2011.

And yes, maybe we do legitimately contend by 2025. Everything goes right and we go from being the worst team in baseball in 2020 and 2021 and we contend in 4 years, ok, anything is possible. Then what? You keep Hayes for 2026 and let him walk for nothing? You trade him during the winter you just became a "legitimate contender?"

 

[DJ Spinoza]

It's too unprecedented for a position player. I can see being pessimistic about the near future, but even if that's the case, the timeline of any trade will be when a prospective window is closer on the horizon.

I think the 2023 team will have the makings of an interesting young roster, and one that should be supplemented with some kind of free agent investments. The Anderson signing has worked out well, but going forward we'll need to see less of the churn and burn approach to depth, especially in the form of journeymen like Gamel and Difo, or even a guy like Vargas (techncally has 3 years of arb, so could be looked at like kind of a poor man's Gonzalez or something I suppose). It's fine for this year because it's a total punt year.

Things are pretty bleak right now, but we just ran into a truck in the Atlanta series. I am encouraged with Keller's two most recent starts and I don't think Brubaker pitched too badly today outside of a badly hung pitch to Riley in the first. I think the biggest weaknesst that Cherington needs to turn an eye to is power – even this team that has been hollowed out with injury would still be able to pick up a number of wins over the last few weeks if there was any real power to speak of in the lineup. I think we'll eventually still hover aroun 70 wins, but the lack of instant offense is one of the biggest stumbling blocks in the organization right now.

There are a number of guys in Altoona, and Hayes will help here, but I think this is one of the areas that should be easy to upgrade in free agency when we are actually trying to win.

 

[MrBrightside]

Not that it really matters but the fact they put Hayes on the 60-day IL is looking pretty suspect right now. He can't be activated until June 4 despite the fact he's been playing in Indianapolis, and it's not like they don't have 10 guys on the 40-man roster that could have been DFA'ed without incident.

 

[Gallatin]

2025, maybe, but in what world is this organization remotely capable of contending by 2023? There are literally 2 guys above A-ball in this organization that you can feel confident they will be good major league regulars by 2023 - Hayes and Reynolds. Brubaker might be a back-end SP. Counting on guys who are in their first years in AA in 2021 to be impact players in the majors by 2023 is silly - guys who don't take a year or two to settle in at the major league level are the exception, not the rule. If you want to compare it to the last nucleus of the 2013-2015 teams, if this was 2011, Cutch and Walker and Pedro were all in their second or third seasons in the MAJORS, they were adding a clear-cut dominant #1 overall pick in Cole that June, and it still took the additions of Burnett and Martin and Liriano to actually become competitive. This organization is much more comparable to where it was in 2007 or 2008 than where it was in 2011.

And yes, maybe we do legitimately contend by 2025. Everything goes right and we go from being the worst team in baseball in 2020 and 2021 and we contend in 4 years, ok, anything is possible. Then what? You keep Hayes for 2026 and let him walk for nothing? You trade him during the winter you just became a "legitimate contender?"

The way I see it - 2023 is the year the Pirate should start trying to win, and absolutely the earliest I expect to see a team here above 500. It very well may take another couple years for them to actually gel into a good team.

 

[Gallatin]

Not that it really matters but the fact they put Hayes on the 60-day IL is looking pretty suspect right now. He can't be activated until June 4 despite the fact he's been playing in Indianapolis, and it's not like they don't have 10 guys on the 40-man roster that could have been DFA'ed without incident.

Hey man - you got to make a move like this now and then if you're going to contend for 1st.

 

[Gallatin]

It's too unprecedented for a position player. I can see being pessimistic about the near future, but even if that's the case, the timeline of any trade will be when a prospective window is closer on the horizon.

I think the 2023 team will have the makings of an interesting young roster, and one that should be supplemented with some kind of free agent investments. The Anderson signing has worked out well, but going forward we'll need to see less of the churn and burn approach to depth, especially in the form of journeymen like Gamel and Difo, or even a guy like Vargas (techncally has 3 years of arb, so could be looked at like kind of a poor man's Gonzalez or something I suppose). It's fine for this year because it's a total punt year.

Things are pretty bleak right now, but we just ran into a truck in the Atlanta series. I am encouraged with Keller's two most recent starts and I don't think Brubaker pitched too badly today outside of a badly hung pitch to Riley in the first. I think the biggest weaknesst that Cherington needs to turn an eye to is power – even this team that has been hollowed out with injury would still be able to pick up a number of wins over the last few weeks if there was any real power to speak of in the lineup. I think we'll eventually still hover aroun 70 wins, but the lack of instant offense is one of the biggest stumbling blocks in the organization right now.

There are a number of guys in Altoona, and Hayes will help here, but I think this is one of the areas that should be easy to upgrade in free agency when we are actually trying to win.

I just don't get the 70 wins thing, never did actually for this season. I mean - we're on track for 63 now, and we haven't even sold all of our players yet....

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I think it's too early to say for sure -- we just got hammered, dropping 5 of 6 in pretty brutal fashion. May looks like it will end up as a bloodbath, but we'll see over these final 7 games of the month. We match up pretty well with the Cubs and Rockies away from Coors. I don't find stuff like the pythagorean record to be very predictive, and just think the true talent of the team is right around the 70 win mark. That means with Hayes back and Moran, who I think isn't really a lock to be traded.

I think Frazier is a lock to be traded, and it's likely that RichRod will go as well, and perhaps Stratton too. If Anderson's value rebounds, toss him in the group. Moran kind of has a book on him already and despite how good he's looked, I'm skeptical anybody will be beating down the door for him.

At the end of the day I think the floor is still obviously awful, and you see it in the absence of the best batters and when nothing seems to go right. But I don't know if it's just Pittsburgh-centrism or leaning too much into the ugliness of particular stretches, or what: there are teams who are clearly worse who play much better competition. If I were betting, I would say that even with the worst imaginable remainder of the season, I'm hard pressed to see how we'll finish worse than the Tigers, Orioles, or Rockies. But I think this is pretty well-trodden ground for this thread, and we all have fairly consistent views.

I will say that I think it's more than plausible to think that the front office is not going out of their way to chase the best possible record, and the extreme conservatism with Hayes is part of that.

 

[cookthebooks]

pythagorean w-l says they are already the worst and selling 4 or so WAR and getting that back with a healthy hayes is a wash? 70 wins seems far away.