DJ Spinoza
Registered User
- Aug 7, 2003
- 25,366
- 3,883
Here's my best attempt at an optimistic gloss on Keller: early in the season, things were pretty much a mess all over the place. He had reliever level command and almost seemed to rely on his inconsistent slider (which has been hammered through the year and was the culprit last night) as his go-to pitch when things got tough. Some of this issue was mechanical, as his release points were not consistent.
The early work of the season has been to dial the fastball in and it has paid dividends. It plays a lot better when he takes some velo off in order to hit his spots, including at the top of the zone, where I think he mostly has to live. Besides the mistake pitch to Suarez, last night was fine until everything came unraveled on him.
I think the next hurdle is being able to bury that slider but make it a competitive pitch. They made a note on the broadcast of how it is getting crushed, but I think the big issue is not the pitch itself but him veering between either one that is so far away from the zone that he can't get changes or one that is a cement mixer in the zone which gets obliterated.
I've been appreciating Capps' calls on the broadcast but I am not sure I agree that the solution is for him to just keep living fastball. His fastball will play, and it has gotten a bad reputation as somehow horrendous, when even if you look at the statcast metrics, it's clear that it's above average. However, he needs a third pitch that can get him whiffs and keep the hitters mixed up. The curveball is ok but if he's just FB/CB, hitters are not going to get fooled and it will be more of the same, maybe fine on some nights where he can really dot the fastball.
My working theory is that Stallings/Marin's game calls are practically developmental, as Keller attempts to refine himself on the fly. Earlier in the season, it seemed like the plan was just to pound fastball after fastball in order to get the feel down, and this worked in the start vs. San Diego last week and then was fully clicking last night. Maybe I am projecting things, but it seemed like Stallings kept calling for sliders last night, and Keller could not command them. He then starting missing his locations badly on the fastball, and everything went to shit.
tldr; the slider doesn't play well but I'm not sure there's really any solution other than to try something similar in his next start. The only other option would be to increase the changeup use or work on some other third pitch. Where I'm slightly more optimistic is that the fastball has gotten much better and the results are starting to bear that out. Where I'm not so optimistic is that he will ever be able to miss bats at an above average clip. It sounds like an easy excuse but Keller is still effectively a rookie in terms of games stared. He should have plenty of leash to try and get things clicking, and the only way I can see otherwise is if he has 5 or 6 horrific starts in a row. Even though last night's start was essentially that – unequivocally, he lost the game for us – there were still some things to build on early in the game, and from the eye test I think he had one or two sliders which were really nice.
The early work of the season has been to dial the fastball in and it has paid dividends. It plays a lot better when he takes some velo off in order to hit his spots, including at the top of the zone, where I think he mostly has to live. Besides the mistake pitch to Suarez, last night was fine until everything came unraveled on him.
I think the next hurdle is being able to bury that slider but make it a competitive pitch. They made a note on the broadcast of how it is getting crushed, but I think the big issue is not the pitch itself but him veering between either one that is so far away from the zone that he can't get changes or one that is a cement mixer in the zone which gets obliterated.
I've been appreciating Capps' calls on the broadcast but I am not sure I agree that the solution is for him to just keep living fastball. His fastball will play, and it has gotten a bad reputation as somehow horrendous, when even if you look at the statcast metrics, it's clear that it's above average. However, he needs a third pitch that can get him whiffs and keep the hitters mixed up. The curveball is ok but if he's just FB/CB, hitters are not going to get fooled and it will be more of the same, maybe fine on some nights where he can really dot the fastball.
My working theory is that Stallings/Marin's game calls are practically developmental, as Keller attempts to refine himself on the fly. Earlier in the season, it seemed like the plan was just to pound fastball after fastball in order to get the feel down, and this worked in the start vs. San Diego last week and then was fully clicking last night. Maybe I am projecting things, but it seemed like Stallings kept calling for sliders last night, and Keller could not command them. He then starting missing his locations badly on the fastball, and everything went to shit.
tldr; the slider doesn't play well but I'm not sure there's really any solution other than to try something similar in his next start. The only other option would be to increase the changeup use or work on some other third pitch. Where I'm slightly more optimistic is that the fastball has gotten much better and the results are starting to bear that out. Where I'm not so optimistic is that he will ever be able to miss bats at an above average clip. It sounds like an easy excuse but Keller is still effectively a rookie in terms of games stared. He should have plenty of leash to try and get things clicking, and the only way I can see otherwise is if he has 5 or 6 horrific starts in a row. Even though last night's start was essentially that – unequivocally, he lost the game for us – there were still some things to build on early in the game, and from the eye test I think he had one or two sliders which were really nice.