OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Fire Sale Edition?

[DJ Spinoza]

Braves make sense as an option for both Melky and Dickerson if they want to take a more cautious approach. There is also certainly the possibility of Marte, although like with Vazquez, you really have to make them pay.

If NH could walk away from the deadline with Lux, Ruiz/May, Waters, and Anderson, you have to think that would be the best case scenario in terms of really blowing it up and committing to a rebuild. I think any notion of moving Marte should hinge first of all on whether Taillon will be healthy for spring training. If he's not, then I see if AA really wants to make a big impact at the deadline. We should probably be listening regardless.

I'd love it if we could snipe one of the mid-list Braves pitchers for Dickerson, but the health might just tank his value. Wentz would be a dream for him if the Braves would part with him.

 

[JimmyTwoTimes]

Those above prospects would turn this team around in a hurry...along with our own..

Keller, Bolton, Marvel
Hayes, Tucker, Cruz (Mason Martin further away with Swaggerty)
Reynolds/Newman already up
Kramer/Craig as utility/Platoon types

Would give us plenty of options to choose from and able to make more trades as well(Moran and Frazier for more pitching).

If we could get Lux, Ian Anderson, Waters, and Ruiz/May....that would make the collapse this year more than worth it.

 

[JimmyTwoTimes]

Btw this is what I accidentally posted in the Steelers thread earlier today..so we are in agreement DJ...

Buster olney

Pirates-Dodgers talks about Felipe Vazquez currently bogged down in part because Pirates want No.1 prospect Gavin Lux and the Dodgers want to keep him.

If Lux was..lets say...a month behind in his development

Theyd have no prob trading him. Its all due to what hes doing in AAA right now. And I get it…hes been great but they still have plenty of 2B/SS prospects behind him. To get stuck on one player when they could add someone like Vazquez is dumb. Vaz is exactly what they need to win it all. I hope the Braves come in and offer RHP an Anderson/Drew Waters for example…

Allowing us to move Marte in Another trade and Giving us a top pitcher in Anderson. To go with Keller, Bolton, Marvel. Or with Marte hitting the way he is and Braves needing an OF maybe they offer RHP Ian Anderson/OF Drew Waters for him. Then we make a deal with Dodgers for Vazquez.

Out
Marte
Vazquez

In
RHP Ian Anderson
OF Drew Waters
2B/SS Gavin Lux
RHP Dustin May

Instead of going after "more" players in return we get 4 elite prospects...all in top 50 of top 100. Im guessing Dodgers won't give that up tho.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I don't think there's any way we could really end up with that set of guys – it would be an insane coup, basically overnight turning us into the best system in baseball or fairly close.

Best case scenario is probably that Friedman does cave on Lux, but it ends up being more like Lux + Stripling + a throw in, and not the pillaging of a system.

I do think if the Braves wanted to part with one of their 45 FV pitchers, that would be a nice outcome to the rental side of things. Maybe package Liriano with an OF in order to get the specific one we like most.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

That's gotta basically tank his value. If the Giants aren't selling Smith, Vazquez is the only elite guy, really. Greene's peripherals are not even close. There are still a number of solid and affordable options out there, but Vazquez is really the one difference-maker.

 

[JimmyTwoTimes]

Yeah we will see. A few things we are judging things on is what we had to give up for Archer so we are assuming we can get that back.

And with how our recent pitching prospects have turned out we are nervous about that as well...but there's a reason Mitch Keller is still ranked higher than both Ian Anderson and Dustin May. Im starting to see some write off Keller but hes still a top ranked prospect. Btw Cody Bolton looks like he can be great as well. And imo Marvel(but hes 26 unlike Keller at 23 and Bolton at 21).

Hopefully Searage isnt around to mess them up...since I think thats the biggest concern. Or someone finally tells the guy he needs to adjust to today's game. We do have some nice prospects..our coaching is what needs to change.

We will see with that later on...but these next few days lets keep adding to the farm

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I think with Keller, they key is that we've decisively shifted him to a heavy pitch mix. Up until his callup, he was basically using the fastball a ton early in games, and then mixing in the curve later on, while starting to develop the slider and change. Now he's basically throwing 1/3 fastballs and 1/3 curves and 1/3 sliders. The fact that the strikeouts continue to be there is a good sign. I understand the impatience to get him back up here, but I think another 2-3 starts with the pitch mix would do him very well.

I'm more anxious about seeing Tucker sooner rather than later, but I think actually seeing him this soon will definitely mean a surprise move of Frazier or Moran, because I doubt they are going to fix either to the bench.

I hope the rumors will kick up tomorrow. Giles is basically not even tradable with elbow issues.

 

[Winger for Hire]

If the Pirates can walk away with one of Lux or Waters, the deadline was a success

 

[cookthebooks]

neil needs to make clear if the dodgers arent willing to deal lux he will have better offers elsewhere. we need a dang bidding war here

 

[bigdaddyk88]

I would gladly trade Marte to Atlanta for a deal around pache and 1 of there 3 top catching prospects. I don’t think the dodgers are going blink so we will walk away then Jasen opts out and they don’t win the World Series they come crawling back in December.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Move melky liariano re up Dickerson 2 for 15 million. Trade Frazier for pitching dump kang for best lottery tickets play. Craig RF rest of the year. Dickerson LF Reynolds CF

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Would be an interesting move by the Yanks. Bradley in middle relief really makes that bullpen a headache. I'd imagine the rich getting richer in this regard is generally better news for a Vazquez market, but it's so hard to tell.

IMO the landscape of the sport has changed enough that certain prospects genuinely do seem untouchable. Lux has probably put himself in that category with the clowning of AAA. Still, the relief market is a total wildcard, and we've consistently seen top-25 position player prospects as the headline in any deal. And whether you want to raise faux concern that "actually, Vazquez's years of control don't matter as much because relievers are so volatile," the undeniable fact is that Vazquez's value is higher than any of the RPs we've seen dealt. The comp is Torres = Lux, then ++ due to the contract. Nobody might pay that, but that's what it is.

Friedman is also a total wildcard here, I don't think that should be forgotten. He always comes through with a big surprise deal, and he isn't afraid to use the chips he has. Lux would break a precedent for him, but given all the circumstantial stuff, I would not be totally floored if he does it.

This is my meandering way to make the prediction that we'll get Lux after all, although I'm going to say that the rest of the deal won't be as crazy as some of us have dreamed. Lux + Stripling + two guys that only prospect hounds have heard of.

 

[DanielPlainview]

I've read several times from people in the league that the gulf between the pitching/hitting in AAA and MLB has grown wider over the past decade or so. I'm sure advance analytics is greatly to blame for it. Regardless, it has become more difficult to predict MLB success from AAA performance than in the past. Something to keep in mind

 

[DJ Spinoza]

And I'm putting this in another post so as not to further cloud my insane (and definitely wrong) prediction that we'll get Lux, but with Friedman as the total wildcard, it's hard to envision what will happen. Maybe he'll end up using the depth he has in order to get Bauer, who I imagine the Indians are absolutely keen on getting something for.

The SP market might end up being goofy, with the Mets screwing things up and now probably holding out for the Padres to pony up a haul for Thor. So perhaps while teams are swooping in for the mid- and low-tier options, Friedman goes for the huge star move once again, added wealth on top of wealth.

I could see the Indians being enticed by some of the controllable spare parts that the Dodgers have, like Beatty and Hernandez, along with some upside guys who are further away. Maybe somebody like DJ Peters would headline it.

PS- my prediction is almost certainly wrong since Stripling is currently on IL, I just figure with my obsession over him, I might as well shoot for the moon in a stupid prediction. And on that front, I would be remiss not to add that the dream would be giving up Frazier in the deal as a depth option for LAD and potential bench bat in order to max out the return a little bit.

 

[Goalie_Bob]

Stripling is on the DL, can he be traded? And then that sounds really bad for GMNH, hey Pirate fans, we traded our all world closer for a guy that's hurt.

Not saying that Lux isn't the centerpiece but getting Stripling back doesn't sound good if he is hurt.

I have no problem with trading Vazquez but it needs to be the right deal. Whether that is in the next couple days or in the offseason.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I've read several times from people in the league that the gulf between the pitching/hitting in AAA and MLB has grown wider over the past decade or so. I'm sure advance analytics is greatly to blame for it. Regardless, it has become more difficult to predict MLB success from AAA performance than in the past. Something to keep in mind

Yes, I think that Lux is being overhyped a bit now. While he was already a phenomenal prospect, I keep seeing this sentiment that he's prime Chase Utley in April next year, which just isn't true. This isn't really fair, because the ranking system is somewhat less important than the actual prospect grade, but I don't see Lux as sniffing the mega-prospects like Franco, Adell, Gore, and Mize (to the extent that you can even compare with a P).

I think it's possible that he ends up being more of a 20/20 guy, which is still extremely useful in these days where speed is so rare, but I keep circling back to the fact that the Dodgers can easily afford to give him up. To me, it's almost exactly the same scenario as Torres, with the only difference being that Torres was further away when the Cubs dealt him.

If Lux turns into Torres, then that's phenomenal, but hardly a devastating loss to an organization.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Stripling, even hurt, is fine as a 3rd or 4th piece, not one of the first two headliners. It's biceps tendinitis, not a torn UCL.

 

[ImporterExporter]

I have to believe we'll move one of the rentals (Melky/Dickerson/Liriano) today and then anything that will happen with Vasquez will be tomorrow about 1150 am.

 

[DanielPlainview]

If Hurdle were fired and a new manager brought in, I'd like to see them make a statement. Assuming Melky is moved: Bench Bell (for a week at least) and Frazier and demand Tucker and Craig be up.

Newman - 2B
Tucker - SS
Marte - CF
Moran/Kang - 3B
Reynolds - LF
Osuna - 1B
Craig - RF
Stallings/Diaz - C

Dickerson
Bell
Frazier
Kang/Moran
Diaz/Stallings

I might not look like much or even confusing given the names on the bench, but I think it's a sneaky lineup that gets guys who should be playing on the field and gets things set up a bit for next year. (I don't think they'll be able to move Dickerson or Kang, or at least not for anything worth a damn)

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Stripling is on the DL, can he be traded? And then that sounds really bad for GMNH, hey Pirate fans, we traded our all world closer for a guy that's hurt.

Not saying that Lux isn't the centerpiece but getting Stripling back doesn't sound good if he is hurt.

I have no problem with trading Vazquez but it needs to be the right deal. Whether that is in the next couple days or in the offseason.

Yeah, I don't think there's any way he'd be in the deal given that he's hurt. Just some wishful thinking on my part. It's also pretty likely that the Dodgers wouldn't want to give him up anyways, since I think they'll use him out of the pen in the playoffs, whether they get Vazquez or not.

I'm still going to make the prediction for the sake of my own interest, and so that you can all ridicule me in a little over 24 hours. I think the situation is just ripe for Friedman to move this time. 1) there really aren't other elite options out there; 2) he's getting insane production from Ryu and Bellinger that is a decent bet not to be replicated in 2020, especially with Ryu's injury history and free agency; 3) the bullpen is often the vital aspect in determining who wins the World Series.

Friedman is very similar to Luhnow in how he approaches things, and the Dodgers ability to put certain starters in the pen for the playoffs is very similar to what the Astros did with Musgrove and others when they won. But the difference is that the Astros had some multi-innings options and the leverage arms on top of that. The Dodgers really don't quite have that, and it's difficult to see where they'll develop it from their own system for this year. It's possible for instance that they could call up May and stick him in the pen as an option, using Maeda or Stripling for the leverage innings, but I still don't quite see it.

Saying this is at total risk of pure homer-glasses, but I think the Dodgers need Vazquez specifically to take their 2019 team to the next level.

 

[Winger for Hire]

I have a feeling that deadline morning might be super busy with a lot of teams playing chicken and having Mexican stand-offs. With no August deadline (well, there is some kind of complicated 40 man roster trade stipulation stuff that will still allow for postseason eligibility, but I don't think that will matter much), I think sellers are more inclined to hold out as long as possible to see what the market is doing and not to be the one that sets the market low or missread it.

 

[cookthebooks]

in bizarro world what would the dodgers package for vazquez centered around oneil cruz look like?

 

[DJ Spinoza]

While I'm throwing out fantasies, the other one I have is that we use Moran as a centerpiece and trick the Marlins into giving up Caleb Smith for him.

edit: whoops, said Richards instead of Smith

 

[DanielPlainview]

He is a grand slam machine!

 

[ImporterExporter]

Moran does need to be moved because Hayes is the future at 3B. Even if he doesn't hit at a high level his defense alone is worth having him in the lineup every night. Throw him in the 7 or 8 hole if he's only a .700 OPS guy and he'll be a net positive WAR player just based on his gold glove.

Moran is cheap and is having a pretty solid year overall. 20 HR/80 RBI guys who can hit for a solid average aren't found everywhere so one would think we could nab at least a decent prospect for him.