OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Fire Sale Edition?

[Winger for Hire]

I feel like either Moran or Kang are perfect guys for Oakland

 

[DJ Spinoza]

The Marlins seem pretty stupid, so I don't think it's too crazy an idea. They want MLB ready position players who aren't in arbitration yet. The Pirates have a number of them and need to clear some space for their top prospects. It's not that hard to envision a lesser extent, quantity for quality type of Cole trade in reverse.

I also meant Caleb Smith, not Trevor Richards. Although Richards would be an interesting buy low candidate with that changeup. I would certainly still move Moran straight up for him.

 

[Winger for Hire]

I'd be calling SF every 30 minutes pushing Dickerson or Melky.

I'd be happy with a Melky for Aramis Garcia swap. Aim a littler higher with Dickerson, maybe Chris Shaw, but he might be redundant with Craig doing what he's doing.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Trev Richard's change-up is elite, wouldn't mind seeing if he's available

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Kang to Oakland makes too much sense. Some guys way down their list who I'd happily take a flier on to never see Kang whiff with that ugly looping swing again are Dalton Sawyer, who has something of a lower ceiling Nick Burdi feel to him in that he's been crushed by injuries and not pitched much in the minors, and Wandisson Charles, who is unpolished but has upper 90s stuff.

But I'll literally just be happy if Kang is off the team. I want Tucker starting on Friday night, but I'll be surprised if it happens. I'd settle for Kramer on the bench.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Say we lose something ridiculous like 15-18 in a row. Does Hurdle still have a job?

 

[Winger for Hire]

 

[TNT87]

Say we lose something ridiculous like 15-18 in a row. Does Hurdle still have a job?

He shouldn't but is Nutjob going to pay him two more years for sitting on the couch? Giving him and NH those four year contracts were so asinine.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think the problem here is that the Pirates should move Vasquez as his value is soaring, but if they're not getting that kind of value, they have no justification to move him. That's not necessarily Lux or he's not moving, but the Pirates have absolutely no need to rush to trading Vasquez when they have him cost controlled for 3 more years.

It's why I laugh at Dodgers fans who scoff at giving up anything of significance for Vasquez. You're not getting Vasquez for cheap with how many years of control he has left, just because the Pirates won't trade him unless you offer something that makes them willing to trade Vasquez.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

IMO Petriello is certainly the dumbest of the analytics people, but even taking issue with the snipe, it's not like we're better than 4th if the injuries don't happen.

To me, the quote is hard to parse. It's no different from what Huntington has said on his radio show for weeks, and any quotes coming out of the media are likely posturing. Similar to the Lux / untouchable thing from Friedman. The Pirates could certainly have as their realistic target Ruiz + May + a specific third piece or something, or they could do what at least a lot seem to want and just hold out for Lux.

It's all impossible to read, and I don't think it's worth getting worked up over hypothetical statements at the deadline. The team could more or less stand pat, which would be annoying, but in the first place it depends on what offers are even out there, and then what lessons will be taken into the winter. I've maintained for a while that Huntington is arrogant, but I don't think he's arrogant enough to just try and do a total reset on 2019.


I imagine the war of media words will only ramp up. Just from a fan BS point of view, the best news would be rumors that the Braves or Astros are heavily interested in Vazquez, but it also would not shock me if we see something later this afternoon like a Dodgers reporter saying that the talks are now focused on Ruiz + pieces outside of the top 5-6 prospects.

My "reasonable" hope for the deadline is just that we get at least one interesting lotto ticket prospect for a rental, and a solid potential 2020 contributor would be a nice bonus (something similar to Ponce, really). If Huntington can move some depth options for controllable pitching, I'll be really happy. Pipe dream "reasonableness" is getting Givens for next year by giving up Kramer or something.

If nobody meets the insane price on Vazquez, then we should double down and try to make the bullpen a bullpen of death for next year, then use some money to sign Grandal. As long as Taillon is back, that wouldn't be a horrible way to go about retooling for 2020 honestly.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

And here's Morosi with the volley back. He's been pretty consistently the yin to Rosenthal's "Pirates aren't dealing anybody" yang.

I know this is potentially just seeing what I wanna see, but there really isn't a comparable player to Vazquez out there. If the Dodgers want to go over the top, he's the only one that cuts it.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Indians are looking for a DH. Another good landing spot for Kang or Moran.

 

[ImporterExporter]

We really should be moving Melky, Dickerson, Kang, Moran, Liriano, and Vasquez/Marte if the return is good enough.

Get rid of the dead weight.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I think an ideal way to solve both the need for impact and the need to shuffle some of the solid options out of the picture would be to include Frazier as a sweetener for a Lux-centric package. It's easy to hate on Frazier but he's a solid 2-win player, and plays passable enough defense at 2B. On a stacked Dodgers team, having him as a safety net option that they can sometimes platoon/ride when hot, and hit out of the 7th or 8th spot really isn't a crazy idea.

In an ideal world I would sort of rather get value for Moran and have Osuna and Frazier as multi-position utility bench guys, but if Frazier could help nail down the Lux return, I'd be all over it.

 

[cookthebooks]

how do you calculate what a year of control is worse? my intuition is that vazquez with 3 vs 4 years of control doesnt see a very large erosion of value

 

[Winger for Hire]

how do you calculate what a year of control is worse? my intuition is that vazquez with 3 vs 4 years of control doesnt see a very large erosion of value

There's also the risk of reliever regression. Elite pitchers are elite right up until they aren't, then what was seen as a value contract looks market value or bloated. See Kimbrel, Craig as a kind of cautionary tale.

I doubt there's much value loss between 3 and 4 yrs of control, but there's also significant risk of injury or regression by holding the extra year. But o the flip side, another dominant season just makes his value that much stronger.

It's a high wire act.

 

[cookthebooks]

There's also the risk of reliever regression. Elite pitchers are elite right up until they aren't, then what was seen as a value contract looks market value or bloated. See Kimbrel, Craig as a kind of cautionary tale.

I doubt there's much value loss between 3 and 4 yrs of control, but there's also significant risk of injury or regression by holding the extra year. But o the flip side, another dominant season just makes his value that much stronger.

It's a high wire act.

i hear you, but the wheels coming off after 30 is to be expected which is why getting the prime years of vazquez is such a big deal. chapman might opt out this offseason, but hes still on the wrong side of 30 for a pitcher, though chapman does seem like he could be a cuban relief pitching nolan ryan type

 

[ImporterExporter]

There's also the risk of reliever regression. Elite pitchers are elite right up until they aren't, then what was seen as a value contract looks market value or bloated. See Kimbrel, Craig as a kind of cautionary tale.

I doubt there's much value loss between 3 and 4 yrs of control, but there's also significant risk of injury or regression by holding the extra year. But o the flip side, another dominant season just makes his value that much stronger.

It's a high wire act.

And not only that, nobody can be serious this team will be contending any time soon so why retain an elite reliever if you aren't going to need him for games that matter? It's like having the best finisher in a 4x100 but your first 3 runners are trash so you never qualify for the finals.

 

[Coastal Kev]

The thing that worries about NH and the FO+Ownership is that their main focus is perception over substance.

I can see them discussing that if they make minimal changes and have a "strong" finish, the season would be a success. It would also allow them to market false hope for next season and give them cover for adding anything in the offseason.

 

[maxpenguins6630]

I am not a big baseball fan but I follow the Pirates a bit... Why are so many people wanting Moran gone ? He matched last year's numbers and he is doing quite well this year wih good average... Only 26 I think...

 

[Empoleon8771]

I am not a big baseball fan but I follow the Pirates a bit... Why are so many people wanting Moran gone ? He matched last year's numbers and he is doing quite well this year wih good average... Only 26 I think...

Because he's highly mediocre and doesn't have an upside beyond highly mediocre. If he's not going to be an answer for a good Pirates team, why keep him?

It's the same justification for moving guys like Frazier and Diaz. If they're not going to be contributors to a good Pirates team in 2 years, why are you bothering keeping them?

 

[DanielPlainview]

He’s very streaky, defense is questionable, and might lose a race to my 86 year old grandmother. He’s a decent to solid player who can occasionally have big days. If he can be moved for something that could help the club in 1-2 years, it wouldn’t hurt with Ke’Bryan Hayes in AAA.

 

[DanielPlainview]

The thing that worries about NH and the FO+Ownership is that their main focus is perception over substance.

I can see them discussing that if they make minimal changes and have a "strong" finish, the season would be a success. It would also allow them to market false hope for next season and give them cover for adding anything in the offseason.

I read something today that basically said other teams think the Pirates are a poorly run team because their management doesn’t give itself or it’s players honest evaluations. That seems pretty accurate. The team is run by people just trying to cover their own asses if they seriously want to blame injuries that happened months ago for the struggles of now as if they had no opportunity to address them.

 

[Winger for Hire]

I didn't realize Moran's K% jumped from 17% to 24% this year and BB% from 8% down to 5%. Yikes

And with having a better year, his wRC+ is only 106 (up from 103 last year).

 

[Winger for Hire]

I read something today that basically said other teams think the Pirates are a poorly run team because their management doesn’t give itself or it’s players honest evaluations. That seems pretty accurate. The team is run by people just trying to cover their own asses if they seriously want to blame injuries that happened months ago for the struggles of now as if they had no opportunity to address them.

If you could find that article, I'd love to read it.