Race for the Calder - Part II

[ThatGuy22]

If you prorated to 82 games then Robertson would have more points than Kaprizov. With the games missed so far this season the most games Robertson would play is 77 games with a projection of 72 points (25g 45a). Kaprizov who would be projected to play all 82 games would also finish with 72 points (38g 33a). One could assume based off Robertson's last 4 games he would score 6 or so more points in the remaining games up to 82 games played. Robertson would still lead in assists, points, +/- (it has some merit), GW goals, infinitely better 5 on 5 stats all while averaging 2 less minutes of ice time. Goals scored is just 1 piece of the equation, you need to look at the entire thing.

You do have to look at the entire thing. But doing that pro-rating out, I have hard time thinking that if they finished with the same number of points, voter's would over look at 12-13 gap in goals.

A rookie that scores 38 goals that Kaprizov would have in that exercise would win the Calder running away it even IF Robertson eclipses him in total points.

If the goal gap was closer to 5, the rest of the stuff comes more into play. But it's such a big gap, doubtful it would be overlooked.

 

[MuckOG]

If you prorated to 82 games then Robertson would have more points than Kaprizov. With the games missed so far this season the most games Robertson would play is 77 games with a projection of 72 points (25g 45a). Kaprizov who would be projected to play all 82 games would also finish with 72 points (38g 33a). One could assume based off Robertson's last 4 games he would score 6 or so more points in the remaining games up to 82 games played. Robertson would still lead in assists, points, +/- (it has some merit), GW goals, infinitely better 5 on 5 stats all while averaging 2 less minutes of ice time. Goals scored is just 1 piece of the equation, you need to look at the entire thing.

Goal scoring and exciting plays are the two biggest pieces of the equation. It's all about goals and the "eye test", not +/-, not even strength #'s, not assists. Points matter, but goals and exciting players are what people tune in to and grabs the attention of the hockey media.

 

[GermanSpitfire]

Goal scoring and exciting plays are the two biggest pieces of the equation. It's all about goals and the "eye test", not +/-, not even strength #'s, not assists. Points matter, but goals and exciting players are what people tune in to and grabs the attention of the hockey media.

I feel like he reads these boards with comments like that, very little Robertson talk away from HF.

 

[ThatGuy22]

I feel like he reads these boards with comments like that, very little Robertson talk away from HF.

Russo just collaborated with the Dallas writer for a story in the Athletic. Russo being the biggest name in hockey media in MN, i'm sure it was noticed locally. His team-mates are probably ribbing him that Robertson is catching up.

 

[Unspecified]

You do have to look at the entire thing. But doing that pro-rating out, I have hard time thinking that if they finished with the same number of points, voter's would over look at 12-13 gap in goals.

A rookie that scores 38 goals that Kaprizov would have in that exercise would win the Calder running away it even IF Robertson eclipses him in total points.

If the goal gap was closer to 5, the rest of the stuff comes more into play. But it's such a big gap, doubtful it would be overlooked.

But you would expect the voters to over look almost the same amount in assists? A 30 goal scorer with close to 50 assists shows a more well rounded player than someone who has 40 goals and 30 assists.

 

[P10p]

So what you are saying is that any player who excels because of the chemistry he has with his linemates is solely a product of that line and he relied on them to be successful?

"When Robertson is on the ice for the Stars, the team’s offensive creation at five-on-five is seven percent above league average. When Robertson is not on the ice, the Stars’ five-on-five offense is 18 percent weaker than league average in terms of expected goal rate for... When Kaprizov is on the ice, the Wild’s expected goal generation is 16 percent below league average. Without Kaprizov deployed, their offensive generation actually improves to seven percent below league average."

Some of your statements makes it obvious you have no f***ing clue about what you watch on the TV when it comes to Dallas so try again, come back with a better understanding of the Stars.

That's not what I said at all but sure, if you want to get your panties in a bunch and feel attacked, by all means. Kind of the norm nowadays anyway.

It shouldn't be this controversial that Robertson' line mates are infinitely better at hockey than Kaprizov' line mates, and thus, his point totals, ESPECIALLY ASSISTS will be aided by this fact. Sorry if reality hurts your little brain.

 

[P10p]

Dallas is one of the worst goal scoring teams over the last three seasons though?

Do people think Dallas is some offensive dynamo?

No, I explained my reasoning in a second post. Robertson enjoys the top heavy nature of Dallas and thrives there. Thats not to take away from the dynamic player he truly is, but you also have to recognize that Hintz(when hes playing)/Benn(when Hintz is out) and Pavelski form a much better line than Rask/Zuccarello, for as good as Zuc has been.

 

[Dr Pepper]

No, I explained my reasoning in a second post. Robertson enjoys the top heavy nature of Dallas and thrives there. Thats not to take away from the dynamic player he truly is, but you also have to recognize that Hintz(when hes playing)/Benn(when Hintz is out) and Pavelski form a much better line than Rask/Zuccarello, for as good as Zuc has been.

.....What?!

You know Minny's scoring at a higher clip than Dallas this year, right?

151 goals scored, in 47 games.

Dallas is at 139 over 48.

Please, tell us more about this high-octane Dallas offense, which clearly only Robertson benefits from.

 

[P10p]

.....What?!

You know Minny's scoring at a higher clip than Dallas this year, right?

151 goals scored, in 47 games.

Dallas is at 139 over 48.

Please, tell us more about this high-octane Dallas offense, which clearly only Robertson benefits from.

Do you even read before you post or do you not know what top-heavy means?

Seriously...

 

[serp]

Do you even read before you post or do you not know what top-heavy means?

Seriously...

Stars really are not that topheavy. Their bottom 6 produces very little but thats because the fourth line is AHL players thanks to the injuries but the defense produces quite alot.

Both Wild and Stars have 7 guys with at least 20 points.

 

[P10p]

.....What?!

You know Minny's scoring at a higher clip than Dallas this year, right?

151 goals scored, in 47 games.

Dallas is at 139 over 48.

Please, tell us more about this high-octane Dallas offense, which clearly only Robertson benefits from.

A quick search can tell alot...

Robertson constantly gets ice time with Dallas' 6 other top goal scorers Gurianov, Hintz, Pavs, Benn, and their top 2 dmen to round it out in Kling and Heiskanen.

Kaprizov is the teams top goal scorer and plays with one other player who makes the top 6 Zuccarelo.

Dallas has no depth, but its clear as day that their top end players (who Robertson constantly plays with) are helping Robertson' point totals.

 

[P10p]

Stars really are not that topheavy. Their bottom 6 produces very little but thats because the fourth line is AHL players thanks to the injuries but the defense produces quite alot

Read my post above, Dallas is very top heavy...

 

[ThatGuy22]

But you would expect the voters to over look almost the same amount in assists? A 30 goal scorer with close to 50 assists shows a more well rounded player than someone who has 40 goals and 30 assists.

In the situation were there was a player with near 40 goals? Yes, I would expect they do overlook the assists. Assists have a higher chance of being impacted by team-mates then goals (preemptively: yes, i know sometimes the assist is more impressive then the goal, i'm talking on average).

Goals are always going to be treated more favorably then assists. If the points are close, but the goals aren't they are going to vote Kaprizov.

If the points are close, and goals relatively close, all the ancilary things will come into much bigger focus.

So like I originally said, when it was asked "how Robertson wins" He needs to start scoring more goals, so that the goal scoring totals aren't so lopsided and the other stuff comes into greater focus. That's his pathway to winning.

 

[Dr Pepper]

Do you even read before you post or do you not know what top-heavy means?

Seriously...

You stated that Robertson basically rides his teammates' coattails, and I pointed out that Minnesota's scored more goals than Dallas this season.

Am I wrong?

Also I'm not sure if it was in this thread or the last one, but there was a graph posted earlier that showed it's actually the opposite.....Robertson basically drives each line that he's on, and he's hardly a passenger who "thrives" with more skilled linemates.

 

[MuckOG]

You stated that Robertson basically rides his teammates' coattails, and I pointed out that Minnesota's scored more goals than Dallas this season.

Am I wrong?

Also I'm not sure if it was in this thread or the last one, but there was a graph posted earlier that showed it's actually the opposite.....Robertson basically drives each line that he's on, and he's hardly a passenger who "thrives" with more skilled linemates.

If that's the case, why doesn't Robertson play more with players other than Hintz/Pavelski/Benn and spread out the scoring?

 

[serp]

If that's the case, why doesn't Robertson play more with players other than Hintz/Pavelski/Benn and spread out the scoring?

With who exactly ? The checking line or the AHL guys the Stars just pray don't get scored on while they're out there on a shift ? Also he actually did make the AHL guys and defenseman Pysyk score against the Redwings when he was double shifted there.

 

[P10p]

Robertson' line mates + top 2 dmen combine for 49/125 or 39% of all Stars goals.
(Hintz, Pavs, Miro, Kling)

Applying the same criteria to Kaprizov...

Kaprizov' line mates + top 2 dmen combine for 25/151 or 16.5% of all Wild goals

The picture gets uglier when you include common line mates like Benn and Gurianov but I excluded them to keep it fair. But, no, not top heavy at all...

 

[MuckOG]

With who exactly ? The checking line or the AHL guys the Stars just pray don't get scored on while they're out there on a shift ? Also he actually did make the AHL guys and defenseman Pysyk score against the Redwings when he was double shifted there.

Which is exactly my point...and why P10p was talking about the Stars scoring being "top heavy". If Robertson could truly "drive a line", then it could do with lesser players as well.....like how Kaprizov carries Victor Rask, for example.

 

[P10p]

You stated that Robertson basically rides his teammates' coattails, and I pointed out that Minnesota's scored more goals than Dallas this season.

Am I wrong?

Also I'm not sure if it was in this thread or the last one, but there was a graph posted earlier that showed it's actually the opposite.....Robertson basically drives each line that he's on, and he's hardly a passenger who "thrives" with more skilled linemates.

Trying to switch up now that you look like an idiot lol. common HF tactic. Here is the exact post you quoted with the text YOU bolded to be responding to. It clearly shows you were responding to my claim that Dallas is a top heavy team. So try again maybe when you can follow along

No, I explained my reasoning in a second post. Robertson enjoys the top heavy nature of Dallas and thrives there. Thats not to take away from the dynamic player he truly is, but you also have to recognize that Hintz(when hes playing)/Benn(when Hintz is out) and Pavelski form a much better line than Rask/Zuccarello, for as good as Zuc has been.

 

[serp]

Which is exactly my point...and why P10P was talking about the Stars scoring being "top heavy". If Robertson could truly "drive a line", then it could do with lesser players as well.....like how Kaprizov carries Victor Rask, for example.

Victor Rask is an everyday NHL player. Justin Dowling and Tanner Kero are not. Rask is pretty compareable to Dickinson or Faksa . The checking line Faksa is on is just never ever getting broken up . The coaching staff loves that line . They've played together for 3 seasons now and when Hintz is out Dickinson usually gets shifted into the Hintz spot and it still works.

 

[MuckOG]

Victor Rask is an everyday NHL player. Justin Dowlin and Tanner Kero are not. Rask is pretty compareable to Dickinson or Faksa . The checking line Faksa is on is just never ever getting broken up . They've played together for 3 seasons now and when Hintz is out Dickinson usually gets shifted into the Hintz spot and it still works.

....said no Minnesota fan, ever.

Excuse the hyperbole, but it's pretty much accurate. He's a complete anchor (not in a good way) on that line with Kaprizov. Rask will probably be bought out after the season, and I doubt any NHL team would sign him. Probably back to Europe for him.

 

[serp]

....said no Minnesota fan, ever.

Excuse the hyperbole, but it's pretty much accurate. Rask will probably be bought out after the season, and I doubt any NHL team would sign him. Probably back to Europe for him.

Victor Rask is an overpaid bottom 6 player with a career high of 48 points. Justin Dowling and Tanner Kero are both ~30 year olds on two way contracts who played combined less than 200 NHL games.

 

[Ogi1Kenobi]

If that's the case, why doesn't Robertson play more with players other than Hintz/Pavelski/Benn and spread out the scoring?

Why would you play one of your best offensive players with 4th liners? If it wasn't for the injuries, Dowling, Gardner and Kero would be on the taxi squad or AHL all season long. Why would Bowness waste Robertson's skill on a line with those guys? He plays in the top six because that is where his talents can be most utilized, not with the 4th line players.

 

[Dr Pepper]

Trying to switch up now that you look like an idiot lol. common HF tactic. Here is the exact post you quoted with the text YOU bolded to be responding to. It clearly shows you were responding to my claim that Dallas is a top heavy team. So try again maybe when you can follow along

Resorting to weak ad-hominem attacks? That's classy.

You seem pretty set in your opinion, so I'll stop trying to reason with you.

Not worth the effort.

 

[P10p]

Why would you play one of your best offensive players with 4th liners? If it wasn't for the injuries, Dowling, Gardner and Kero would be on the taxi squad or AHL all season long. Why would Bowness waste Robertson's skill on a line with those guys? He plays in the top six because that is where his talents can be most utilized, not with the 4th line players.

Because theres more to hockey than stacking one line, check Minnesota and Dallas' record for clear examples. One lineup spreads the wealth and one stacks their top line sacrificing depth...