Race for the Calder - Part II

[P10p]

Was pretty impressed with his backchecking not long after his goal, broke up a rush nicely.

Yeah I was watching that and wondering if he would get beat or overpowered one on one being young and all, but he bounced the other guy off and recovered nicely.

 

[Kalamazoo Wings]

Is there really an argument between Pavelski+Hintz vs Zuccarello+Rask? lol it seems pretty obvious which pair is better. The fact that Rask exists is enough to drag that side down into the negatives. People are actually kidding themselves if they think linemate quality doesn't strongly affect scoring.

Go on with ya!

So what about 20 point Jesse Puljujarvi being stapled to 81 point McDavid? Your theory has some holes. Line drivers are line drivers, and Robertson is one of them. I mean 35 ES point and the majority being primary is pretty impressive, he's not chiseling secondaries for the most part, which you can see even if you don't watch him and watch the box scores.

I'd like to see Robertson win it, but Kaprizov is lethal too, will be a very interesting race to the finish.

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

I am sure he won’t win the Calder but Vitek Vanecek is quietly having a fairly decent rookie campaign for Washington. 18 wins, 2.68 GAA, .910 save percentage and 2 shutouts.

 

[serp]

I would think the 3 finalists will be Kaprizov , Robertson and one of the goalies. At this point it might be Nedeljkovic who is in the top3 but i can't see a goalie winning or even be top2. Shesterkin has good stats and played 30+ games so it might als be him .

 

[Dr Pepper]

Cleanup in aisle 5, I guess.

So! How 'bout that Calder trophy, huh?

Talk about tough to win.

 

[serp]

Point taken but optics are everything in this world. Like i said it should not make a difference either way but nobody know what the writers will do or vote for.

If he was playing for a Canadian or a Eastcoast franchise i'd agree but he's playing for the Dallas Stars. I'd be very suprised if most people who get to vote watched more than a few highlights of him posted by the league somewhere. If his brother Nick has anywhere close to the rookie season Jason has right now he'll have the Calder locked up almost no matter who else is in his rookie class because of the franchise that drafted him.

 

[Unspecified]

1. Robertson
2. Kirill da Thrill
3. Alex Nedeljkovic

 

[Unspecified]

If he was playing for a Canadian or a Eastercoast franchise i'd agree but he's playing for the Dallas Stars. I'd be very suprised if most people who get to vote watched more than a few highlights of him posted by the league somewhere. If his brother Nick has anywhere close to the rookie season Jason has right now he'll have the Calder locked up almost no matter who else is in his rookie class because of the franchise that drafted him.

Agreed

 

[rynryn]

Go on with ya!

So what about 20 point Jesse Puljujarvi being stapled to 81 point McDavid? Your theory has some holes. Line drivers are line drivers, and Robertson is one of them. I mean 35 ES point and the majority being primary is pretty impressive, he's not chiseling secondaries for the most part, which you can see even if you don't watch him and watch the box scores.

I'd like to see Robertson win it, but Kaprizov is lethal too, will be a very interesting race to the finish.

y'all can high five this all you want but there is zero chance anyone would want that MIN pair over the DAL pair. there is a reason for that--because they're better, and better able to cash in on the opportunities the "line driver" creates. Don't blame you for not watching but it was kind of panic-inducing how many slam dunk plays Kap set up that our guys missed.

 

[space321]

Go on with ya!

So what about 20 point Jesse Puljujarvi being stapled to 81 point McDavid? Your theory has some holes. Line drivers are line drivers, and Robertson is one of them. I mean 35 ES point and the majority being primary is pretty impressive, he's not chiseling secondaries for the most part, which you can see even if you don't watch him and watch the box scores.

I'd like to see Robertson win it, but Kaprizov is lethal too, will be a very interesting race to the finish.

Interesting expected goals stats courtesy of moneypuck:

Expected goals per 60 (5 on 5 situations):

Hintz 0.8
Kaprizov 0.78
Robertson 0.68
Pavelski 0.64
Zuccarello 0.57
Victor Rask 0.33

This isn't arguing who should win the Calder, but it's rather silly to suggest linemates don't matter in terms of production.

Just for reference, Puljujarvi has 1.1 in this same stat and McDavid has 1.05. Also it's kind of ridiculous to use McDavid as a measuring stick for the rest of the league.

 

[Val]

1. Robertson
2. Kirill da Thrill
3. Alex Nedeljkovic

No
1. Kaprizov 42 (23+19)
2. Robertson 40 (15+25)
3. someone else

42>40 and 23>15 I think so

 

[Bruce Granville]

And don‘t forget...
0,6 (Kaprizov)> 0,54 (Robertson)

PPI (points per inch, duh)

 

[Dr Pepper]

No
1. Kaprizov 42 (23+19)
2. Robertson 40 (15+25)
3. someone else

42>40 and 23>15 I think so

You're absolutely right, Kaprizov has a VERY solid shot at not just the Calder, but also the Rookie Art Ross Trophy!

Wait.....oh, that's not a thing?

How about the Rookie Maurice Richard Trophy?

....That doesn't exist either, you say?

That's weird.

I wonder who else knows about this?

 

[Nino Noderreiter]

You're absolutely right, Kaprizov has a VERY solid shot at not just the Calder, but also the Rookie Art Ross Trophy!

Wait.....oh, that's not a thing?

How about the Rookie Maurice Richard Trophy?

....That doesn't exist either, you say?

That's weird.

I wonder who else knows about this?

Weird argument to make that all points are created equal. It's pretty clear that goal scoring is more of a premium than assists. Obviously, both are extremely important and lead to goals but I mean it's not a debate and never will be that goals > assists especially when the difference is so drastic. Kaprizov is top 10 in the league in goals. You can try to pretend that isn't commonly accepted all you want, but that doesn't change anything.

I feel like Dallas fans are confused in that just because Robertson is not as good of a player as Kaprizov (for that matter points aren't everything, but one measuring stick), but that doesn't mean Robertson is a bad player. McDavid is better than McKinnon that doesn't mean McKinnon is bad.

It's even fair to say that there's a chance that Robertson at 23-24 better than Kaprizov is at 23-24 given how well he's performing at a younger age. However, at this point in time... Kaprizov is a better and more impactful player than Robertson.

 

[Dr Pepper]

Weird argument to make that all points are created equal. It's pretty clear that goal scoring is more of a premium than assists. Obviously, both are extremely important and lead to goals but I mean it's not a debate and never will be that goals > assists especially when the difference is so drastic. Kaprizov is top 10 in the league in goals. You can try to pretend that isn't commonly accepted all you want, but that doesn't change anything.

I feel like Dallas fans are confused in that just because Robertson is not as good of a player as Kaprizov (for that matter points aren't everything, but one measuring stick), but that doesn't mean Robertson is a bad player. McDavid is better than McKinnon that doesn't mean McKinnon is bad.

My post was only in response to the original poster's implication that Kaprizov was going to win based solely on him currently being ahead in goals and points.

I don't think it works that way, although who knows with these writers, maybe it does.

To be clear, it wouldn't surprise me if Kaprizov wins, and it wouldn't surprise me if Robertson wins. They've both proven themselves as frontrunners.

What WOULD surprise me, is if anyone else wins.

 

[MrHeiskanen]

I think time has run out for Robertson, if Kaprizov slowed down a bit these last couple weeks I thought he had a shot at the Calder. But Kaprizov matched the pace and I think he will win the award.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

My post was only in response to the original poster's implication that Kaprizov was going to win based solely on him currently being ahead in goals and points.

I don't think it works that way, although who knows with these writers, maybe it does.

To be clear, it wouldn't surprise me if Kaprizov wins, and it wouldn't surprise me if Robertson wins. They've both proven themselves as frontrunners.

What WOULD surprise me, is if anyone else wins.

This is where I am too. Can't really predict what each voter is going to give the most impact to. Both guys have stuff in their favor.

 

[Kshahdoo]

So how is it going?

 

[Dr Pepper]

So how is it going?

Welp, Dallas seems to have forgotten how to produce any kind of offense whatsoever, shut out in their last two games (and one goal scored over their last 9 periods total), so we'll see if they can snap out of that funk tonight - Robertson included, hopefully.

Calder scoring race:

Kaprizov - 43pts in 50 games

Robertson - 40pts in 46 games

Should be a sprint to the finish, then it's up to the writers to play favourites and see which rookie comes out on top.

 

[Muffin]

Welp, Dallas seems to have forgotten how to produce any kind of offense whatsoever, shut out in their last two games (and one goal scored over their last 9 periods total), so we'll see if they can snap out of that funk tonight - Robertson included, hopefully.

Calder scoring race:

Kaprizov - 43pts in 50 games

Robertson - 40pts in 46 games

Should be a sprint to the finish, then it's up to the writers to play favourites and see which rookie comes out on top.

Also the fact that Kaprizov led Minnesota to the 3rd seed and Dallas is probably going to miss the playoffs plays a part too.

 

[Dr Pepper]

Also the fact that Kaprizov led Minnesota to the 3rd seed and Dallas is probably going to miss the playoffs plays a part too.

It might, you're right.

But a Calder trophy winner has missed the playoffs before.

 

[MNNumbers]

Welp, Dallas seems to have forgotten how to produce any kind of offense whatsoever, shut out in their last two games (and one goal scored over their last 9 periods total), so we'll see if they can snap out of that funk tonight - Robertson included, hopefully.

Calder scoring race:

Kaprizov - 43pts in 50 games

Robertson - 40pts in 46 games

Should be a sprint to the finish, then it's up to the writers to play favourites and see which rookie comes out on top.

For the sake of completeness, this also needs to be made known...

Kaprizov: 23 goals in 50 games
Robertson: 15 goals in 46 games

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

For the sake of completeness, this also needs to be made known...

Kaprizov: 23 goals in 50 games
Robertson: 15 goals in 46 games

There are so many stats to look at when comparing though... like for instance

Robertson 35 even strength points in 46 games
Kaprizov 32 even strength points in 50 games

Either way we look at it, it's neck and neck big time!!!

My gut is saying Kaprizov will end up winning it, but it's gonna be so close

 

[MNNumbers]

There are so many stats to look at when comparing though... like for instance

Robertson 35 even strength points in 46 games
Kaprizov 32 even strength points in 50 games

Either way we look at it, it's neck and neck big time!!!

Oh, I totally agree. I just posted the goals because only posting the points suggests that is the determining factor. If the goals were within 1 or 2, I would definitely agree that the points alone would be a major factor. However, even in the 'easy stats', it is clear that the points are not the only factor.

Anything deeper than that and you start wondering "how deep do you dive....?"

 

[Chrisinroch]

C’mon. This is just silly. Goals >>>>> Points.

Robertson needs to close the goal gap or win the points race by a really large margin to peel off enough voters.