Blue Jays Discussion: Prospects getting the call! Jansen, Reid-Foley up to the show

[MS]

If you got to pay them anyways and they arent in your long term plans and have very little value in short term then it isnt a good argument to keep the because you are paying them.

I think most people would be delighted if both were DFAed and their contracts eaten. Unfortunately, that's unlikely to happen.

And, again, has nothing to do with Solarte.

You exactly do that to help your team short term which can help long term. For example Solarte can play 3B which Morales cant and Tulo wont so if Vladdy is up you can play Solarte at 3B and DH Vladdy more. It opens up a lot of possibilities for the team when you have more versatile players.

Guerrero will be playing 3b for most of next year. Past him, they also have a young player they just acquired in Drury who has been an MLB regular at that position. Plus Diaz and Martin can take reps there and do just fine.

Why on earth does the team need to carry 5 guys who can play 3b? Do you plan on carrying only 2 outfielders?

There isn't enough room on the roster to carry everyone and Solarte is the worst and oldest of the options. Bye.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Jordan Groshans promoted to Bluefield.

Not the same position but I hope they promote Kirk to either Vancouver or Lansing soon. He's too good for Bluefield at this point.

 

[Discoverer]

Well Bautista still has his moments. Although I find it rather typical that after racking up RBI's in a 20 run win he goes 0-3 with 2 SO and 3 runners left on in the 9-6 loss. It was always one of my biggest issues with him during his prime, prior to the playoff years, that he would his home runs late in games we were already well up and then SO/DP at least once the next day in a 2-1 loss.

From 2010 to 2014 (his pre-playoff prime), he had a 153 wRC+ in low leverage situations, 166 in medium leverage, and 153 in high leverage.

So... nope.

 

[Eyedea]

From 2010 to 2014 (his pre-playoff prime), he had a 153 wRC+ in low leverage situations, 166 in medium leverage, and 153 in high leverage.

So... nope.

Yeah but it just felt like it, ya know?

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Well Bautista still has his moments. Although I find it rather typical that after racking up RBI's in a 20 run win he goes 0-3 with 2 SO and 3 runners left on in the 9-6 loss. It was always one of my biggest issues with him during his prime, prior to the playoff years, that he would his home runs late in games we were already well up and then SO/DP at least once the next day in a 2-1 loss.

Nonsense.

If you got to pay them anyways and they arent in your long term plans and have very little value in short term then it isnt a good argument to keep the because you are paying them.



You exactly do that to help your team short term which can help long term. For example Solarte can play 3B which Morales cant and Tulo wont so if Vladdy is up you can play Solarte at 3B and DH Vladdy more. It opens up a lot of possibilities for the team when you have more versatile players.

Following this argument over the last couple days, there's a far more simple way of looking at it.

1) You exercise the option because its an asset, and said asset can be useful in some sense (whether through trade or deployment)
2) You don't exercise the option because it allocates resources to an otherwise redundant piece, for which there are younger, more viable options.

Really boils down to that. Does he deserve to be let go? Probably not. Is he a major league calibre player? Probably. Do the 2019 or 2020 Blue Jays need him? No. Could you get something for him? If you could, it likely would have happened in July. Is it going to annoy me to have $5.5MM allocated to what I assume is a bench player in 2019? No.

Quite frankly, its odd that the conversation has persisted as long as it has. We should all kind of be Switzerland to this one.

 

[Nineteen67]

Yeah but it just felt like it, ya know?

Actually, it felt like he was a clutch hitter, probably because he was.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Actually, it felt like he was a clutch hitter, probably because he was.

Whoosh.

 

[Kurtz]

Actually, it felt like he was a clutch hitter, probably because he was.

Discoverer's stats show that he was an equally amazing hitter in all situations.

But that reminds me of a topic we were discussing years ago. Analytics guys back in the day were suggesting that "clutchness" was simply not a thing. I wonder if opinion has shifted at all on this front?

 

[Nineteen67]

Discoverer's stats show that he was an equally amazing hitter in all situations.

Exactly.

Without looking at the numbers you wouldn’t think he wasn’t a clutch hitter and run producer, like the op insinuated.

 

[Discoverer]

Discoverer's stats show that he was an equally amazing hitter in all situations.

But that reminds me of a topic we were discussing years ago. Analytics guys back in the day were suggesting that "clutchness" was simply not a thing. I wonder if opinion has shifted at all on this front?

I doubt it. Has anyone ever shown a sustainable ability to play better in high-leverage situations?

 

[dangomon]

Yeah but it just felt like it, ya know?

With the exception of the spectacular (the bat flip), it's always easier to recall the times you were let down.

 

[Canada4Gold]

From 2010 to 2014 (his pre-playoff prime), he had a 153 wRC+ in low leverage situations, 166 in medium leverage, and 153 in high leverage.

So... nope.

But memory and confirmation bias isn't a thing and we don't need numbers to tell us what's happen when we can just watch the game...

 

[phillipmike]

Following this argument over the last couple days, there's a far more simple way of looking at it.

1) You exercise the option because its an asset, and said asset can be useful in some sense (whether through trade or deployment)
2) You don't exercise the option because it allocates resources to an otherwise redundant piece, for which there are younger, more viable options.

Really boils down to that. Does he deserve to be let go? Probably not. Is he a major league calibre player? Probably. Do the 2019 or 2020 Blue Jays need him? No. Could you get something for him? If you could, it likely would have happened in July. Is it going to annoy me to have $5.5MM allocated to what I assume is a bench player in 2019? No.

Quite frankly, its odd that the conversation has persisted as long as it has. We should all kind of be Switzerland to this one.

I believe he falls into option 1. Now that may be at picking up his option at 5.5M or declining it and bringing him back for a cheaper cost.

Completely agree and a strong post. But what i want to allude to is that he appears to be a redundant piece in August of 2018 where that may not be the case in the off-season or when it matters in 2019. A decision does not need to be made on him now (as many have already said the option should not be picked up) and to be honest i dont think anyone of the listed 6 players (Smoak, Martin, Diaz, Drury, Travis, and Tulo) are slam dunks to be back - add in Morales too. I fully expect Gurriel to be on this team and likely Drury and Diaz so that is why im more open to picking up the option for 2019 - its all dependent on how the rest of the season and off-season shakes out. Irrespective of that i still value him much more than Tulo and Morales hence why i would strongly consider picking up his option.

Everyone is saying we dont need Solarte next season when we have redundant pieces but the off-season hasnt started yet for us to know who is redundant. I only see short term futures for Drury and Diaz and a long term future for Gurriel - thats a count of maybe 3 players i fully expect on the 2019 team. Smoak, Martin, Tulo, Travis and Morales all have a decent shot of not being on this team in 2019.

 

[phillipmike]

Help the team do what exactly?

Play baseball games.

 

[phillipmike]

Guerrero will be playing 3b for most of next year. Past him, they also have a young player they just acquired in Drury who has been an MLB regular at that position. Plus Diaz and Martin can take reps there and do just fine.

Why on earth does the team need to carry 5 guys who can play 3b? Do you plan on carrying only 2 outfielders?

Not that i expect it but this is why you build depth for the maybes and what ifs. What if many guys get hurt? What if Guerrero needs more time or shows he isnt a 3B.

Solarte isnt a need, its an insurance policy IF you need it for a small cost. 3

There isn't enough room on the roster to carry everyone and Solarte is the worst and oldest of the options. Bye

Again, why are you counting what the 2019 roster will look like based on what the August 2018 team has. This is the issue, you are writing Solarte off based on the composition of the team in August when that can look very different at the end of the month, during ST and more importantly when the season starts. Lots can change before then.

 

[phillipmike]

He can want whatever he wants. If the manager wants him to move, he'll move (or he can retire or be suspended without pay or whatever else he wants to do). I don't disagree with it, but it's not relevant.

I doubt that happens.

If he was a 1-2 WAR player, I would agree. But he's likely somewhere around replacement level, and 0.5 WAR is probably his reasonable upside. I don't understand why Morales's 2017 was enough for you to want to eat the salary and dump him but Solarte's 2018 (which has been worse) makes him worth giving more money.

Because Solarte can actually play a position and over the last 2 season Morales is worse. If you want to DH someone then Morales has to play first or sit. With Solarte he can play at least 2 more positions than Morales before you have to think about sitting him. It common sense, he is more versatile.

Three positions for Travis, Diaz, Gurriel, Drury, and Guerrero. Martin available to fill in at one of those spots if needed. Bichette, Biggio, Urena, and maybe even Espinal in Buffalo. Sign a couple depth options for league minimum or to minor league deals if you want in the offseason. It's not a position of need in any way.

I don't understand where this need is, but even if you believe it exists, Solarte's track record is more than a year in the past now. He's not the 1.0-2.0 WAR player he was. He's probably somewhere between that and the sub-replacement player he's been recently. He's been worth 0.3 fWAR in his last 1000 PA. That's probably about what he is now.

As i stated a need may not appear in August but the 2019 Jays doesnt need to be reported now. A lot has and will change where you dont need to make a decision on Solarte and likely shouldnt one way or another. But i can see many scenarios where he is back and more useful.

 

[Morgs]

I doubt it. Has anyone ever shown a sustainable ability to play better in high-leverage situations?

Uh, Derek Jeter. Obviously.

 

[phillipmike]

Although i dont like Bauer there is speculation that he could be out for the season/playoffs which sucks has he was having a great season.

Wonder if Estrada interests the Indians.

 

[Nineteen67]

Discoverer's stats show that he was an equally amazing hitter in all situations.

But that reminds me of a topic we were discussing years ago. Analytics guys back in the day were suggesting that "clutchness" was simply not a thing. I wonder if opinion has shifted at all on this front?

You can only compare it against yourself, i.e. how well do you play in “normal” situations and do you perform better in “high leverage”situations?

Athletes naturally are more focused the greater the stakes and they are in these situation less often than normal situation.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I believe he falls into option 1. Now that may be at picking up his option at 5.5M or declining it and bringing him back for a cheaper cost.

Completely agree and a strong post. But what i want to allude to is that he appears to be a redundant piece in August of 2018 where that may not be the case in the off-season or when it matters in 2019. A decision does not need to be made on him now (as many have already said the option should not be picked up) and to be honest i dont think anyone of the listed 6 players (Smoak, Martin, Diaz, Drury, Travis, and Tulo) are slam dunks to be back - add in Morales too. I fully expect Gurriel to be on this team and likely Drury and Diaz so that is why im more open to picking up the option for 2019 - its all dependent on how the rest of the season and off-season shakes out. Irrespective of that i still value him much more than Tulo and Morales hence why i would strongly consider picking up his option.

Everyone is saying we dont need Solarte next season when we have redundant pieces but the off-season hasnt started yet for us to know who is redundant. I only see short term futures for Drury and Diaz and a long term future for Gurriel - thats a count of maybe 3 players i fully expect on the 2019 team. Smoak, Martin, Tulo, Travis and Morales all have a decent shot of not being on this team in 2019.

I understand the point you're making (i.e. things are fluent and can change rapidly, especially over an offseason). That said, even under the scenario that all of Smoak\Martin\Tulo\Travis\Morales\Diaz\Drury are elsewhere in 2019, it then bodes the question as to why you would keep, of all of them, Solarte. At that point, Tellez\McKinney\Leblebijian\Lopes\Drury\Urena can all provide you with sub-replacement level efforts at the league minimum. All that said, the controllable, younger Diaz\Drury\Travis not being on the team in lieu of Solarte seems like a stretch.

Further, though I have subscribed to the 2019 team having a chance to surprise and win a second wild card, the likelihood of Solarte being a significant reason as to why is quite low. And, if the team was in the position the Braves\Phillies found themselves in in July '18, a like-kind asset can easily be acquired to fill depth.

Again, both sides have merit, and there's no slam dunk to this argument. However, I question the need for said argument.

 

[Discoverer]

As i stated a need may not appear in August but the 2019 Jays doesnt need to be reported now. A lot has and will change where you dont need to make a decision on Solarte and likely shouldnt one way or another. But i can see many scenarios where he is back and more useful.

Sure. I'm not arguing that there's no situation in which bringing Solarte back makes sense. I'm saying that, as of right now, with Solarte having a terrible season and at least half a dozen players who are better and cheaper for a similar role, it wouldn't make sense to pick up the option. I'm sure plenty of things will change between now and the time they have to make a decision, and some of those things might even change my opinion on what to do about it. My opinion right now is based on current information.

Again, both sides have merit, and there's no slam dunk to this argument. However, I question the need for said argument.

Pretty much, yeah. I honestly don't feel that strongly about it, but I'm struggling to understand some of the arguments being used to justify it. It's weird to me.

 

[Epictetus]

Smoak, Martin, Tulo, Travis and Morales all have a decent shot of not being on this team in 2019.

How?

 

[Nineteen67]

I understand the point you're making (i.e. things are fluent and can change rapidly, especially over an offseason). That said, even under the scenario that all of Smoak\Martin\Tulo\Travis\Morales\Diaz\Drury are elsewhere in 2019, it then bodes the question as to why you would keep, of all of them, Solarte. At that point, Tellez\McKinney\Leblebijian\Lopes\Drury\Urena can all provide you with sub-replacement level efforts at the league minimum. All that said, the controllable, younger Diaz\Drury\Travis not being on the team in lieu of Solarte seems like a stretch.

Further, though I have subscribed to the 2019 team having a chance to surprise and win a second wild card, the likelihood of Solarte being a significant reason as to why is quite low. And, if the team was in the position the Braves\Phillies found themselves in in July '18, a like-kind asset can easily be acquired to fill depth.

Again, both sides have merit, and there's no slam dunk to this argument. However, I question the need for said argument.

There have been a few occasion Solarte hasn’t played up to professional standards. Is that something you want around your organisation especially with the kids coming up.

 

[Longshot]

I doubt it. Has anyone ever shown a sustainable ability to play better in high-leverage situations?

Wasn't there a study awhile back that showed the best "clutch" hitters were generally the best hitters?

 

[Nineteen67]

I understand the point you're making (i.e. things are fluent and can change rapidly, especially over an offseason). That said, even under the scenario that all of Smoak\Martin\Tulo\Travis\Morales\Diaz\Drury are elsewhere in 2019, it then bodes the question as to why you would keep, of all of them, Solarte. At that point, Tellez\McKinney\Leblebijian\Lopes\Drury\Urena can all provide you with sub-replacement level efforts at the league minimum. All that said, the controllable, younger Diaz\Drury\Travis not being on the team in lieu of Solarte seems like a stretch.

Further, though I have subscribed to the 2019 team having a chance to surprise and win a second wild card, the likelihood of Solarte being a significant reason as to why is quite low. And, if the team was in the position the Braves\Phillies found themselves in in July '18, a like-kind asset can easily be acquired to fill depth.

Again, both sides have merit, and there's no slam dunk to this argument. However, I question the need for said argument.

There have been a few occasion Solarte hasn’t played up to professional standards. Is that something you want around your organisation especially with the kids coming up.