Prospect Info: Prospects and Marlies Thread: Marlies Calder Cup Champions Edition - Pre-Season

[Orfieus]

Durzi is a 20 year old 2nd round pick who beat up on kids in the OHL last season and it's very questionable how much use beating up on kids again is actually going to do for him

The AHL is a development league, if it's in Durzi's best interests to play in the AHL (if it's not we've got an issue already) he's quite clearly a higher priority than the likes of Subban Nielsen and LoVerde

No context needed, if he goes back to the CHL instead of developing with our staff on the Marlies because he can't beat out those other guys with highly questionable futures we've got a problem

Bolded the part I totally agree with.

Loverde is 29 and isn't an NHL player.
Marincin is 26 and very probably isn't an NHL player
Holl is 26 and probably isn't an NHL player

Pick 2, the 3rd spot should go to Durzi

 

[Kiwi]

Leafs may see him as a slow developer but with very high upside so they maybe ok with giving the kid extra time to develop. We dont know the Leafs thought process on this kid.

He's an overager we picked at #52, it's hard to see how you could justify a pick that that high on a guy that old if you think he's not where you'd already want him to be, he lit the OHL on fire production wise as well

I'd imagine they want him in house, our development staff and the amount we've sunk into the development process would suggest that if he's close they would lean towards him playing in the AHL, Liljegren certainly seems to have benefited from it

Developing players isn't black and white. You need context. There's a reason NHL teams have staffs of people for the development of players, both working with them, but also setting out success plans.

If you don't see it that way, that is fine, but I don't think we'll be able to find common ground.

No probs Cor

 

[Kiwi]

To add some fuel to the fire as to where Durzi may end up next year (now I'll add the caveat that maybe he's injured right now or something), but Mac Hollowell got called back up to Leafs camp to replace Gardiner, who is leaving for personal reasons (which is believed to be a baby but it's a short term thing).

Now that doesn't say that Hollowell is ahead of him because he shouldn't be, especially if injuries play a part in things, but I am not sure that plays well to his Marlies prospect if Hollowell is the first guy they turn to if everyone is healthy.

That's a little strange if Durzi isn't injured, Hollowell for Gardiner is LD for LD though I guess

Bolded the part I totally agree with.

Loverde is 29 and isn't an NHL player.
Marincin is 26 and very probably isn't an NHL player
Holl is 26 and probably isn't an NHL player

Pick 2, the 3rd spot should go to Durzi

I think Durzi has some talent, if he's on the Marlies he's only behind Liljegren and Borgman in my mind in my own development priorities

 

[LeafChief]

Ideally, you do not want Durzi playing in the OHL this year.

The best thing for his development would be to be with the Marlies and get the Bracco treatment. Spot duty at the beginning of the season. Mostly working on the gym and with strength and skating coaches. Not going with the team on the away trips and staying back at the facility with the skills/strength coaches.

It worked wonders for Bracco last year and I'm expecting a big AHL season from him this year.

 

[Joey Hoser]

Bolded the part I totally agree with.

Loverde is 29 and isn't an NHL player.
Marincin is 26 and very probably isn't an NHL player
Holl is 26 and probably isn't an NHL player

Pick 2, the 3rd spot should go to Durzi

Those guys helped the likes of Johnsson, Dermott and Liljegren get the experience of being part of a great team, going deep in the playoffs and winning a championship. I think that's worthwhile.

 

[93LEAFS]

To add some fuel to the fire as to where Durzi may end up next year (now I'll add the caveat that maybe he's injured right now or something), but Mac Hollowell got called back up to Leafs camp to replace Gardiner, who is leaving for personal reasons (which is believed to be a baby but it's a short term thing).

Now that doesn't say that Hollowell is ahead of him because he shouldn't be, especially if injuries play a part in things, but I am not sure that plays well to his Marlies prospect if Hollowell is the first guy they turn to if everyone is healthy.

My guess is this is just handedness related. RHD rarely have any experience playing on the left, as there are generally more LHD coming up than RHD.

 

[93LEAFS]

Those guys helped the likes of Johnsson, Dermott and Liljegren get the experience of being part of a great team, going deep in the playoffs and winning a championship. I think that's worthwhile.

But Liljegren should be able to step in and replace one of them this year, which then opens up a spot for Durzi. The Marlies generally went far on the backs of veteran players but didn't develop much between 2010 and 2014. Now, we have seen an improvement on that front, but at the end of the day, it is still a development asset. I don't think going an extra round or two is more valuable than developing a 2nd round pick in the right setting.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

My guess is this is just handedness related. RHD rarely have any experience playing on the left, as there are generally more LHD coming up than RHD.

That's a little strange if Durzi isn't injured, Hollowell for Gardiner is LD for LD though I guess

Mac Hollowell is a RHD. He plays RD. Just like Durzi.

Filip Kral is the LHD who plays RD (at least that's what he did this past year).

So I doubt that is it unless Hollowell is capable of playing LD. Besides, the Leafs still have more LD than RD in camp so it makes more sense just to use one of the guys they have there in Gardiner's place. There are some guys, like Rosen or Borgman, who I would not mind seeing beside Zaitsev in the preseason. One of them could be a future partner for Zaitsev if Gardiner moves on. Dermott may be as well, although they probably want him with Ozhiganov to get that familiarity.

 

[93LEAFS]

Mac Hollowell is a RHD. He plays RD. Just like Durzi.

Filip Kral is the LHD who plays RD (at least that's what he did this past year).

So I doubt that is it unless Hollowell is capable of playing LD. Besides, the Leafs still have more LD than RD in camp so it makes more sense just to use one of the guys they have there in Gardiner's place. There are some guys, like Rosen or Borgman, who I would not mind seeing beside Zaitsev in the preseason. One of them could be a future partner for Zaitsev if Gardiner moves on. Dermott may be as well, although they probably want him with Ozhiganov to get that familiarity.

Yeah, strange move unless we hear something about injuries that Hollowell would be ahead on the pecking order this quickly.

 

[Kiwi]

Mac Hollowell is a RHD. He plays RD. Just like Durzi.

Filip Kral is the LHD who plays RD (at least that's what he did this past year).

So I doubt that is it unless Hollowell is capable of playing LD. Besides, the Leafs still have more LD than RD in camp so it makes more sense just to use one of the guys they have there in Gardiner's place. There are some guys, like Rosen or Borgman, who I would not mind seeing beside Zaitsev in the preseason. One of them could be a future partner for Zaitsev if Gardiner moves on. Dermott may be as well, although they probably want him with Ozhiganov to get that familiarity.

Bugger me your right, I was sure he was a Lefty

I'm surprised Hollowell is getting a call up in that case, maybe they want Durzi working with the Marlies staff if he's going to be playing there this season and if Hollowell sits around not playing it's not a big issue since he's further away?

Injury to Durzi is probably the obvious one but it's a bit boring

 

[4thline]

Yes, I get your point about ecological fallacy, but then using that logic there is no point in using any analytics or trends to evaluate a players development.

No, that's a bad understanding of the logic. You just need to screen for trends that apply to the player. Durzi won't just be "an OA". He'll be a (presumably) high scoring OA defenseman that has improved greatly since U18. Compare him to what he (presumably) is, not what he (certainly) isn't (he's neither a random OA scrub, nor a 1st entry 2nd rounder that has stagnated for two years).

Say he does go back (I think it's far from a given)
Starting from the top, minimum ppg for overage defensemen in the O, post 04 lockout

D.Raddysh
Ryan Wilson
Centorame
Jake Muzzin
Collin Miller
Kwiet
Petrave

3x nobody, 1x Jury out/ good prospect, 1x 230gp nhl dman, 2 x top 4 dman. Pretty good hit rate. Favourable to that of a late 2nd.

Since you were previously interested in screening by use of draft slot, guess which two were deemed worthy of NHL draft picks prior to their OA year?

Another success story (admittedly from outside of the high end offensive performance sample) is Giordano. From the dub there's Spurgeon and Dillon.

Factor in that his U20 production slots in between Hamilton and Pietrangelo for post lockout d men...

I'm not saying that it's ideal if he goes back, or even against the idea that he was over drafted, just that it's far from a death sentence as a prospect if he performs.

For the record my pick would have been Hallander/Wise.

 

[93LEAFS]

No, that's a bad understanding of the logic. You just need to screen for trends that apply to the player. Durzi won't just be "an OA". He'll be a (presumably) high scoring OA defenseman that has improved greatly since U18.
Say he does go back (I think it's far from a given)
Starting from the top, minimum ppg for overage defensemen in the O, post 04 lockout

D.Raddysh
Ryan Wilson
Centorame
Jake Muzzin
Collin Miller
Kwiet
Petrave

3x nobody, 1x Jury out/ good prospect, 1x 230gp nhl dman, 2 x top 4 dman. Pretty good hit rate. Favourable to that of a late 2nd.

Since you were previously interested in screening by use of draft slot, guess which two were deemed worthy of NHL draft picks prior to their OA year?

Another success story (admittedly from outside of the high end offensive performance sample) is Giordano. From the dub there's Spurgeon and Dillon.

Factor in that his U20 production slots in between Hamilton and Pietrangelo for post lockout d men...

I'm not saying that it's ideal if he goes back, just that it's far from a death sentence as a prospect if he performs.

For the record my pick would have been Hallander/Wise.

That is promising, but you would think a guy that talented who had such a high pick allocated to him would be worthy of the Marlies. I'm not holding this as much against Hollowell, as I am Durzi. I'd add Andre Benoit to the list due to being eligible for the 2005 draft (and it taking place in 04/05).

I also think it should be pointed out, that Pietrangelo and Hamilton were guys who passed not only the analytics test, but the eye test for NHL scouts. While analytics are helpful, they need to be balanced with actual observation. You also look at them, and they have a concrete track record and relatively linear development that makes it seem that their one season wasn't just a mirage. Generally, the best players are guys who hit in both groups.

Regardless of how these people have performed. I do think it sets off alarm bells if a guy who an organization used a 2nd round pick on isn't AHL ready by the age of 20. We would have said the same about Bracco last year, and it was basically a reason to write off Dzierkals organizationally. Higher-picks always get significant opportunity to play. The other thing with those samples, it is assuming he does repeat. Depending on what happens with Nick Suzuki, Owen Sound could be a pretty dreary offense. A regression into the below 1.0 would start being immediately alarming when you start adjusting for age.

The other thing is, most of those guys were overlooked and given opportunities late in the draft. The amount of guys who were PPG in their U-19 year old season and graduated eliminates a significant portion of the comparables for Durzi. If you realize a recurring trend for those guys they were late-rounders who hadn't shown much offense at the OHL level. Two of who did fail (Ryan Wilson, Andre Benoit) had previously shown offensive ability. Having watched the OHL for years, I don't think it is a good place to refine defensive technique if you are dominating offensively. If Suzuki is gone, the burden will heavily be on Durzi to drive the offence heavily, which could encourage bad habits that will be exposed at the pro-level, and it will not have him working on what we need him to work on.

I'm not saying its a death knell, but similar to other prospects in recent years who have had things happen, it isn't doesn't make me optimistic either (Brooks being sent back, and Dzierkals to the ECHL). I may be overly cynical when it comes to prospects, especially ones later in the draft (Unless its Bergman/Sweden pick, he's earned some faith). I'm hoping he makes the Marlies, and is capable of making an impact. Our best 2nd rounder in recent years accomplished that, and appears to be trending to being a solid top 4 defender. I may not agree with the picks or logic, but at the end of the day, I want the same thing as most here. Which is the Leafs to win and have great players/teams to watch.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Regardless of how these people have performed. I do think it sets off alarm bells if a guy who an organization used a 2nd round pick on isn't AHL ready by the age of 20.

I think this is unfair. At this point, you don't have to be AHL-ready to crack the Marlies lineup, you need to be high-end. It's like saying Jones wasn't ready for top four minutes because he couldn't crack the Nashville top four when he was there. You have to take the competition into account.

 

[4thline]

@93LEAFS , its funny Brooks was a case I was thinking of too. I firmly believe he was AHL ready in 16-17 and that being sent back was about elc maximization/stretching. Of course, that could have been accomplished being in the A on an A only contract so maybe I'm seeing what I want to see, but over the last few years there's been a stronger argument building that the Leafs are throttling prospects and disregarding the "expected progression" to do their own thing. We won't know how it works out for years, but I'm invested enough (and lets be honest, the players in question are far far down the list of keyness in our cogs for success) that I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt

 

[93LEAFS]

I think this is unfair. At this point, you don't have to be AHL-ready to crack the Marlies lineup, you need to be high-end. It's like saying Jones wasn't ready for top four minutes because he couldn't crack the Nashville top four when he was there. You have to take the competition into account.

Subban and Loverde shouldn't be good enought block a prospect we have hopes for, especially if you believe Liljegren is a top 4 ready for the AHL. He doesn't have to be better than two non-prospects at the moment to be worthy of a spot. Its a developmental league. The NHL isn't, and I don't think being blocked by Weber and Ryan Ellis, is comparable to being blocked by Loverde and Jordan Subban.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Subban and Loverde shouldn't be good enought block a prospect we have hopes for, especially if you believe Liljegren is a top 4 ready for the AHL. He doesn't have to be better than two non-prospects at the moment to be worthy of a spot. Its a developmental league. The NHL isn't, and I don't think being blocked by Weber and Ryan Ellis, is comparable to being blocked by Loverde and Jordan Subban.

I think the opportunity is there for Durzi for sure but, at the same, the Leafs patient approach also might see Durzi slowly brought into the fold. So if he doesn’t play much right away it could be a combination of this or Durzi not performing up to par.

I think a realistic take is that we hope to see Durzi in a more regular role, at least on the bottom pairing, by year’s end. If he can earn a spot and prove he should be a regular, that’s a good thing.

 

[93LEAFS]

I think the opportunity is there for Durzi for sure but, at the same, the Leafs patient approach also might see Durzi slowly brought into the fold. So if he doesn’t play much right away it could be a combination of this or Durzi not performing up to par.

I think a realistic take is that we hope to see Durzi in a more regular role, at least on the bottom pairing, by year’s end. If he can earn a spot and prove he should be a regular, that’s a good thing.

He can’t be called back up until Owen Sound (or whatever team he is on) is eliminated if we send him to the CHL.

 

[BertCorbeau]

He can’t be called back up until Owen Sound (or whatever team he is on) is eliminated if we send him to the CHL.

Isn't he AHL eligible now?

 

[stickty111]

Durzi is apparently practicing with the Leafs now. I guess Hollowell being brought backup didnt mean anything

 

[93LEAFS]

Isn't he AHL eligible now?

He is, but you can't send him back and then recall him. Once you send him back he's on the CHL team for the remainder of the year.

 

[BertCorbeau]

He is, but you can't send him back and then recall him. Once you send him back he's on the CHL team for the remainder of the year.

I wasn't suggesting sending him back though. I was suggesting that he may not get a lot of playing time right off the hop, but that we should hope that he can lock down a regular spot as the season progresses.

 

[93LEAFS]

I wasn't suggesting sending him back though. I was suggesting that he may not get a lot of playing time right off the hop, but that we should hope that he can lock down a regular spot as the season progresses.

I agree with that. But, a lot of the conversation was about what does it mean if we send him back. I was just clarifying if he goes back to the OHL, he can't earn a AHL call-up to re-gain a spot.

 

[BertCorbeau]

I agree with that. But, a lot of the conversation was about what does it mean if we send him back. I was just clarifying if he goes back to the OHL, he can't earn a AHL call-up to re-gain a spot.

Ah got it!

 

[Boutette]

He is, but you can't send him back and then recall him. Once you send him back he's on the CHL team for the remainder of the year.

I agree with that. But, a lot of the conversation was about what does it mean if we send him back. I was just clarifying if he goes back to the OHL, he can't earn a AHL call-up to re-gain a spot.

Which is why I don't thinks its such a bad idea to start him out on the Growlers. he'll get decent minutes and learn to be a dominant defenceman playing against men. And when a spot opens up on the Marlies he'll be more ready, and able, to step in, this year. When you look at the Growlers, considering the number of 20-23 year olds it sure looks like the development team Dubas states he wants. Not sure how returning to the OHL will provide more development towards the NHL defenseman the org thinks he is capable of becoming. I think that Brooks likely would have been sent there after being drafted instead of the WHL if it had been in place.

 

[93LEAFS]

Which is why I don't thinks its such a bad idea to start him out on the Growlers. he'll get decent minutes and learn to be a dominant defenceman playing against men. And when a spot opens up on the Marlies he'll be more ready, and able, to step in, this year. When you look at the Growlers, considering the number of 20-23 year olds it sure looks like the development team Dubas states he wants. Not sure how returning to the OHL will provide more development towards the NHL defenseman the org thinks he is capable of becoming. I think that Brooks likely would have been sent there after being drafted instead of the WHL if it had been in place.

I think we should create an AHL spot for him if he's legit. Players like Jordan Subban and Loverde should not be blocking a development spot. Its fine if you a bad AHL team and need veteran experience, but we have 2 top 4 RHD. That 3rd pairing role should be for development. It gives Liljegren more all-situations usage and gives Durzi a spot.