Prospect Info: Prospects and Marlies Thread: Marlies Calder Cup Champions Edition - Pre-Season

[93LEAFS]

Alex Pietrangelo was assigned to the Barrie Colts in January 2010, just days before his 20th birthday.

The CHL is a development league. There is nothing wrong with these two players spending their D+2 in the CHL.

Alex pietrangelo was not AHL eligible. If he was, he would have been in the AHL. Find me someone who spent there 20 year old season there and was drafted to in the top 60 was a success. I would say there is something wrong with a guy spending his 20 year old season (that was pietrangelo’s 19 year old season) in the AHL. The guys who succeed who were in the ECHL or AHL are late or undrafted UFAs who come out of nowhere. Durzi would have to beat significant trends to be an effective NHLer.

I didn’t like the Durzi pick at the time, and said for him to be worthy of the pick he had to be AHL ready this year.

 

[Lauro]

Oh come on, I can only laugh at all this negativity. Maybe he sticks with the Marlies, and I hope so, maybe he gets send down to the Growlers because of the stacked Marlies D and because thats what the Leafs want to do, use the Growlers as their next development team. There is nothing wrong about letting him play there for some months and then promoting him to the Marlies. No team really used its ECHL affiliate that way in the past, so it isnt surprising that there aren't many examples of successful players going that route.
Defensemen need time, and the Leafs only need or hope to get a 5th/6th D out of this 2nd round pick. Liljegren and Sandin are for the top 4.

 

[Mr Hockey]

Alex Pietrangelo was assigned to the Barrie Colts in January 2010, just days before his 20th birthday.

The CHL is a development league. There is nothing wrong with these two players spending their D+2 in the CHL.

That wasn't his overage year, he just had an early birthday.

 

[Cor]

Alex pietrangelo was not AHL eligible. If he was, he would have been in the AHL. Find me someone who spent there 20 year old season there and was drafted to in the top 60 was a success. I would say there is something wrong with a guy spending his 20 year old season (that was pietrangelo’s 19 year old season) in the AHL. The guys who succeed who were in the ECHL or AHL are late or undrafted UFAs who come out of nowhere. Durzi would have to beat significant trends to be an effective NHLer.

I didn’t like the Durzi pick at the time, and said for him to be worthy of the pick he had to be AHL ready this year.

He still played in the CHL when he was 20. It was still his 4th season in the CHL. He still played the majority of his D+2 year in the CHL.

It's the same thing Durzi and Hollowell MAY be doing.

This is all incredibly early as well. We don't know where they are playing. They could be playing in the ECHL, AHL, OHL, or maybe Dubas finds a european pro league for them to go to.

There is no linear path to development.

 

[93LEAFS]

He still played in the CHL when he was 20. It was still his 4th season in the CHL. He still played the majority of his D+2 year in the CHL.

It's the same thing Durzi and Hollowell MAY be doing.

This is all incredibly early as well. We don't know where they are playing. They could be playing in the ECHL, AHL, OHL, or maybe Dubas finds a european pro league for them to go to.

There is no linear path to development.

Except pietrangelo didn’t have AHL eligibility. If he did, he would have played there, regardless of whatever depth that team had. He was good enough, just not eligible.

There is no linear path. But, there are proven track records, and Durzi would be the first 2nd rounded to be successful with this model in a long time. Only goalies develop that way or very long shot picks.

 

[Kiwi]

Unfortunately those other guys are not going to be playing on a defense as good as the Marlies'. It's not like the Marlies would end up playing Hollowell over him or something. There is just no room for him, and they kind of made it that way from the beginning by signing Subban. Injuries could happen. Maybe even a couple guys get claimed or traded. Barring that, there is practically no way for them to reasonable justify any move they could make to accommodate Durzi. Sending Nielsen to the ECHL looks bad and does not really solve anything since he's playing on the opposite side. Benching LoVerde or Holl looks bad considering how important they are to the Marlies defense (and the fact that Holl just got a new deal). They definitely won't bench Liljegren. They are already essentially benching Subban as is, so it's tough to bench him even more. Plus they just signed him a week after drafting Durzi (and knowing he would be AHL eligible and likely taking the same sort of spot/role as Subban would on the Marlies right away).

I just think Dubas is taking the "slow development" thing to heart. Despite his offensive numbers, he still has things to learn and grow. Offensive numbers are not everything, especially in the CHL. Very few defensemen make it to the NHL as any sort of offensive defenseman these days, and those who do are far better at it than he is. It would be a different story if he was like Conor Timmins. That's should be his goal.

It's not a screw up. Whether he spends another season in junior, or playing sporadically with the Marlies while working with our development staff like Jeremy Bracco did. Same thing with Mac Hollowell.

This also isn't a typical AHL defense. Let's assume Rosen, Oz, Carrick and Dermott are the 5-8 d-men for the Leafs. On the Marlies, that means we have,

Martin Marincin - Timothy Liljegren
Andreas Borgman - Justin Holl
Andrew Nielsen - Jordan Subban

Rasmus Sandin might be with the Marlies. We have Vincent LoVerde as well. We also have all the players who are just signed to AHL deals, primarily Alex Gudbranson and Stefan LeBlanc.

At the end of the day, one of, if not both of, Mac Hollowell and Sean Durzi are likely going to play overage seasons, and there is nothing wrong with that given how jam packed that defense is. While you may be willing to throw Subban, and Holl and Borgman, and Nielsen, and Marincin and LoVerde aside, that's not how things work.

You've got Nielsen, LoVerde and Subban in front of him?

If he's worth that pick at that age he should take priority over all those people from a development standpoint

 

[Mr Hockey]

i'm pretty sure he goes back for an overage season (my guess) and if he has a good season, he gets ELC . If he doesn't play well, he follows Piccinich path.

 

[kk87]

Anyone feel like taking a shot at what the Marlies might look like this year? It'd be nice to get a sense of how the team might look

 

[Duke16]

Anyone feel like taking a shot at what the Marlies might look like this year? It'd be nice to get a sense of how the team might look

Timashov-Mueller-Cracknell
Grundstrom-Jooris-Bracco
Moore-Brooks-Marchment
Engvall-Gauthier-Greening

Marincin-Holl
Borgman-Liljegren
Rosen-LoVerde
Nielsen-Subban

Pickard
Kaskisuo

 

[Cor]

Except pietrangelo didn’t have AHL eligibility. If he did, he would have played there, regardless of whatever depth that team had. He was good enough, just not eligible.

There is no linear path. But, there are proven track records, and Durzi would be the first 2nd rounded to be successful with this model in a long time. Only goalies develop that way or very long shot picks.

You can argue that Durzi was taken a round or two too high, but the Leafs obviously really like what they see in the kid, and thus ensured they were getting him. Here's a list of players who played 20 year old seasons. All these players would of turned 20 no later December of that season. More than half of them were drafted. I tried to stay with players who played in the league no earlier than like 2000, but the majority of them are very recent players. These players have ranged from being selected in round 3, to being undrafted and range from top 6/top 4 d-man all the way to bottom 6 and bottom pairing guys.

I would of taken Calen Addison there, that was no secret, I was pushing to take Addison with our 1st rounder, but to say Durzi is worthless because he MIGHT be playing in the OHL this season is just incredibly short sighted

Ryan Callahan *4th Round Pick by NYR
Matt Calvert *5th Round Pick by CBJ
Kevin Labanc *6th Round Pick by SJS
Dan Girardi *Undrafted
Ryan Wilson *Undrafted
Alex Burrows *Undrafted
Troy Brouwer *7th Round Pick by CHI
Mike Hoffman *5th Round Pick by OTT
Tyler Johnson *Undrafted
Steve Thomas *Undrafted
Mark Giordano *Undrafted
Jake Muzzin *5th Round Pick by PIT
Brad Moran *5th Round Pick by BUF
Mark Parrish *3rd Round Pick by COL
Adam Cracknell *9th Round Pick by CGY
Trent Whitfield *4th Round Pick by BOS
Mike Comeire *3rd Round Pick by EDM
Vernon Fiddler *Undrafted
Jim Vandermeer *Undrafted
Derek Dorsett *7th Round Pick by CBJ
Yanni Gourde *Undrafted


Some recent prospects that look promising;
Adam Brooks *4th Round Pick by TOR
Glenn Gawdin *4th Round Pick by STL
Ty Ronning *7th Round Pick by NYR

 

[Cor]

You've got Nielsen, LoVerde and Subban in front of him?

If he's worth that pick at that age he should take priority over all those people from a development standpoint

I don't have anyone ahead of anyone. In fact, I think Durzi is likely to follow a path like Bracco did. He won't play much the first half, but he'll be practicing extra, and working with the strength and conditioning team. Will be able to fill in on those 3 in 3 stretches. Injuries happen, trades happen, a spot could open up, or he'll get time down the stretch like Bracco did while the main guys rest for the playoffs, and will probably have some stints in the ECHL, as I think Kyle Dubas will begin utilizing that option as well.

My point is, just because he's playing in the OHL at 20 years old, doesn't mean he's a waste of a prospect and not good enough. The OHL may just simply be the best place for him to play, we have lots of bodies on the back end. However, this is all incredibly early. We don't know what the plan is yet. Maybe a Grabner esque trade happens where we dump 5 guys in 1 deal.

 

[93LEAFS]

You can argue that Durzi was taken a round or two too high, but the Leafs obviously really like what they see in the kid, and thus ensured they were getting him. Here's a list of players who played 20 year old seasons. All these players would of turned 20 no later December of that season. More than half of them were drafted. I tried to stay with players who played in the league no earlier than like 2000, but the majority of them are very recent players. These players have ranged from being selected in round 3, to being undrafted and range from top 6/top 4 d-man all the way to bottom 6 and bottom pairing guys.

I would of taken Calen Addison there, that was no secret, I was pushing to take Addison with our 1st rounder, but to say Durzi is worthless because he MIGHT be playing in the OHL this season is just incredibly short sighted

Ryan Callahan *4th Round Pick by NYR
Matt Calvert *5th Round Pick by CBJ
Kevin Labanc *6th Round Pick by SJS
Dan Girardi *Undrafted
Ryan Wilson *Undrafted
Alex Burrows *Undrafted
Troy Brouwer *7th Round Pick by CHI
Mike Hoffman *5th Round Pick by OTT
Tyler Johnson *Undrafted
Steve Thomas *Undrafted
Mark Giordano *Undrafted
Jake Muzzin *5th Round Pick by PIT
Brad Moran *5th Round Pick by BUF
Mark Parrish *3rd Round Pick by COL
Adam Cracknell *9th Round Pick by CGY
Trent Whitfield *4th Round Pick by BOS
Mike Comeire *3rd Round Pick by EDM
Vernon Fiddler *Undrafted
Jim Vandermeer *Undrafted
Derek Dorsett *7th Round Pick by CBJ
Yanni Gourde *Undrafted


Some recent prospects that look promising;
Adam Brooks *4th Round Pick by TOR
Glenn Gawdin *4th Round Pick by STL
Ty Ronning *7th Round Pick by NYR

Those are a bunch of longshots, as pointed out, there is track no track record of a year a 2nd round pick having success that way. These are like 1 in 500 guys who do this who end use making it. Him being in the ECHL or CHL this year is not a promising trend. You draft a guy who is entering his 20 year old year you should be pretty sure he’s worthy of an AHL spot. The odds of a pick in Durzis range is 20% of becoming something of value, so he’s facing long odds to begin with. But, I do this game ya worrisome is a 20 year old who we allocated a top 60 pick on isn’t ready to cement a spot in our AHL team at 20. If you are going to allocate a pick that high on a late birthday you should be comfortable with him entering pro hockey that year.

 

[Cor]

Those are a bunch of longshots, as pointed out, there is track no track record of a year a 2nd round pick having success that way. These are like 1 in 500 guys who do this who end use making it. Him being in the ECHL or CHL this year is not a promising trend. You draft a guy who is entering his 20 year old year you should be pretty sure he’s worthy of an AHL spot. The odds of a pick in Durzis range is 20% of becoming something of value, so he’s facing long odds to begin with. But, I do this game ya worrisome is a 20 year old who we allocated a top 60 pick on isn’t ready to cement a spot in our AHL team at 20. If you are going to allocate a pick that high on a late birthday you should be comfortable with him entering pro hockey that year.

After like pick 25, every player is a long shot.

Also, I repeat, no one has said Durzi isn't going to be on the Marlies roster.

 

[Faltorvo]

Timashov-Mueller-Cracknell
Grundstrom-Jooris-Bracco
Moore-Brooks-Marchment
Engvall-Gauthier-Greening

Marincin-Holl
Borgman-Liljegren
Rosen-LoVerde
Nielsen-Subban

Pickard
Kaskisuo

damn, thats a team

 

[4thline]

Alex pietrangelo was not AHL eligible. If he was, he would have been in the AHL. Find me someone who spent there 20 year old season there and was drafted to in the top 60 was a success. I would say there is something wrong with a guy spending his 20 year old season (that was pietrangelo’s 19 year old season) in the AHL. The guys who succeed who were in the ECHL or AHL are late or undrafted UFAs who come out of nowhere. Durzi would have to beat significant trends to be an effective NHLer.

I didn’t like the Durzi pick at the time, and said for him to be worthy of the pick he had to be AHL ready this year.

I get what you're saying here, but take take issue with the causal/correlative link of "top 60 pick" and "beat significant trends", I think it falls short on a couple levels.

Firstly- the assumption of not playing in the AHL this season signalling him "not being good enough" to do it. The Marlies are stacked, just as the Leafs are. We've become a top end organization where "good enough" isn't good enough, and I think in light of that development decisions should be made free and independent of past trends. The Marlies right side is likely to end up with 2x AAAA/ NHL 6/7 D under 25 + Liljegren. It might be best for him to be elsewhere, or get Bracco/Marchment treatment

Secondly- that indroduces the ecological fallacy, being true of others doesn't mean it will be true for him. Reasonings matter, and being drafted out of U20 with the extra team control that entails is enough of a differentiator to call those past trends into question

Thirdly- a counterfactual specifically targeted at the importance being placed on him being a "top 60 pick". If Dubas has his way we snag him in the 7th or toss him a contract as UDFA, and that aspect of the trend disapears, despite being the exact same player. Being a reentry his draft position of more indicative of the cost to acquire than of any macro developmental analysis/trend

 

[Kiwi]

I don't have anyone ahead of anyone. In fact, I think Durzi is likely to follow a path like Bracco did. He won't play much the first half, but he'll be practicing extra, and working with the strength and conditioning team. Will be able to fill in on those 3 in 3 stretches. Injuries happen, trades happen, a spot could open up, or he'll get time down the stretch like Bracco did while the main guys rest for the playoffs, and will probably have some stints in the ECHL, as I think Kyle Dubas will begin utilizing that option as well.

My point is, just because he's playing in the OHL at 20 years old, doesn't mean he's a waste of a prospect and not good enough. The OHL may just simply be the best place for him to play, we have lots of bodies on the back end. However, this is all incredibly early. We don't know what the plan is yet. Maybe a Grabner esque trade happens where we dump 5 guys in 1 deal.

In the above hypothesis Cor he's on the Marlies which is where you'd expect him to be at that age with that pick #52 if he's tracking well (which you'd hope because we only picked him a few months ago)

If he goes back to the CHL this season if your looking at historical trends for 2nd round picks at that age that's a worrying sign development wise and he's going to have to do something incredibly unlikely in his development (he's a long shot already) to make it

 

[Cor]

In the above hypothesis Cor he's on the Marlies which is where you'd expect him to be at that age with that pick #52 if he's tracking well (which you'd hope because we only picked him a few months ago)

If he goes back to the CHL this season if your looking at historical trends for 2nd round picks at that age that's a worrying sign development wise and he's going to have to do something incredibly unlikely in his development (he's a long shot already) to make it

Yes, I included the hypothesis of him playing in the AHL, because that's still where he may play. There's nothing to suggest he isn't staying with the Marlies other than "they have 10 guys already".

And thinking about it, that's the point. Sean Durzi going back to the OHL won't be because of Durzi as a player. He had a great year last year, by all accounts he was good at the dev camp, and he looked good in the rookie camp. Like, if you ignore all aspect of the context involved, sure, "20 year old, former 2nd round pick sent back to juniors for an overage season" isn't awesome, but there's so much context.

 

[Joey Hoser]

Yes, I included the hypothesis of him playing in the AHL, because that's still where he may play. There's nothing to suggest he isn't staying with the Marlies other than "they have 10 guys already".

And thinking about it, that's the point. Sean Durzi going back to the OHL won't be because of Durzi as a player. He had a great year last year, by all accounts he was good at the dev camp, and he looked good in the rookie camp. Like, if you ignore all aspect of the context involved, sure, "20 year old, former 2nd round pick sent back to juniors for an overage season" isn't awesome, but there's so much context.

Context is hard. I prefer brash one-liners that "tell it like it is".

 

[Albert Iafrate]

Alex pietrangelo was not AHL eligible. If he was, he would have been in the AHL. Find me someone who spent there 20 year old season there and was drafted to in the top 60 was a success. I would say there is something wrong with a guy spending his 20 year old season (that was pietrangelo’s 19 year old season) in the AHL. The guys who succeed who were in the ECHL or AHL are late or undrafted UFAs who come out of nowhere. Durzi would have to beat significant trends to be an effective NHLer.

I didn’t like the Durzi pick at the time, and said for him to be worthy of the pick he had to be AHL ready this year.

Dude. You are comparing a player picked 52nd overall to a guy who was drafted 4th overall.

 

[Kiwi]

Yes, I included the hypothesis of him playing in the AHL, because that's still where he may play. There's nothing to suggest he isn't staying with the Marlies other than "they have 10 guys already".

And thinking about it, that's the point. Sean Durzi going back to the OHL won't be because of Durzi as a player. He had a great year last year, by all accounts he was good at the dev camp, and he looked good in the rookie camp. Like, if you ignore all aspect of the context involved, sure, "20 year old, former 2nd round pick sent back to juniors for an overage season" isn't awesome, but there's so much context.

Durzi is a 20 year old 2nd round pick who beat up on kids in the OHL last season and it's very questionable how much use beating up on kids again is actually going to do for him

The AHL is a development league, if it's in Durzi's best interests to play in the AHL (if it's not we've got an issue already) he's quite clearly a higher priority than the likes of Subban Nielsen and LoVerde

No context needed, if he goes back to the CHL instead of developing with our staff on the Marlies because he can't beat out those other guys with highly questionable futures we've got a problem

 

[93LEAFS]

Dude. You are comparing a player picked 52nd overall to a guy who was drafted 4th overall.

I didn't bring up that comparisson. Someone else did. I pointed out the difference.

 

[Mr Hockey]

Durzi is a 20 year old 2nd round pick who beat up on kids in the OHL last season and it's very questionable how much use beating up on kids again is actually going to do for him

The AHL is a development league, if it's in Durzi's best interests to play in the AHL (if it's not we've got an issue already) he's quite clearly a higher priority than the likes of Subban Nielsen and LoVerde

No context needed, if he goes back to the CHL instead of developing with our staff on the Marlies because he can't beat out those other guys with highly questionable futures we've got a problem

Leafs may see him as a slow developer but with very high upside so they maybe ok with giving the kid extra time to develop. We dont know the Leafs thought process on this kid.

 

[Cor]

Durzi is a 20 year old 2nd round pick who beat up on kids in the OHL last season and it's very questionable how much use beating up on kids again is actually going to do for him

The AHL is a development league, if it's in Durzi's best interests to play in the AHL (if it's not we've got an issue already) he's quite clearly a higher priority than the likes of Subban Nielsen and LoVerde

No context needed, if he goes back to the CHL instead of developing with our staff on the Marlies because he can't beat out those other guys with highly questionable futures we've got a problem

Developing players isn't black and white. You need context. There's a reason NHL teams have staffs of people for the development of players, both working with them, but also setting out success plans.

If you don't see it that way, that is fine, but I don't think we'll be able to find common ground.

 

[93LEAFS]

I get what you're saying here, but take take issue with the causal/correlative link of "top 60 pick" and "beat significant trends", I think it falls short on a couple levels.

Firstly- the assumption of not playing in the AHL this season signalling him "not being good enough" to do it. The Marlies are stacked, just as the Leafs are. We've become a top end organization where "good enough" isn't good enough, and I think in light of that development decisions should be made free and independent of past trends. The Marlies right side is likely to end up with 2x AAAA/ NHL 6/7 D under 25 + Liljegren. It might be best for him to be elsewhere, or get Bracco/Marchment treatment

Secondly- that indroduces the ecological fallacy, being true of others doesn't mean it will be true for him. Reasonings matter, and being drafted out of U20 with the extra team control that entails is enough of a differentiator to call those past trends into question

Thirdly- a counterfactual specifically targeted at the importance being placed on him being a "top 60 pick". If Dubas has his way we snag him in the 7th or toss him a contract as UDFA, and that aspect of the trend disapears, despite being the exact same player. Being a reentry his draft position of more indicative of the cost to acquire than of any macro developmental analysis/trend

Okay, then if you have an issue with that comparison of using other 2nd rounders, what is a fair grouping to evaluate him in the context of? Every single player who played an over-age year in the CHL. If we look at players who actually had a chance to prove themselves from that, lets say look at from 2005 (the start of the current draft set-up) and 2014 (players entering their draft +5 season. On average, the CHL has 3 overagers per team. There are generally 60 teams combined throughout the CHL. That's a pool of roughly 1800 players. Of that pool how many successes can you find? You got really good ones like Tyler Johnson, Mike Hoffman, Yanni Gourde, Dan Girardi, and Kevin Leblanc. That's basically hoping for a .002% chance. Then the argument could be made, I'm choosing too wide a criteria, so let's just make it drafted prospects, but that removes everyone but Hoffman and Leblanc as positive examples, although, I can't give you specific numbers on how many drafted players played an overage season. Now, Durzi is in the back end of that 2nd round co-hort, so what would be more fair? A top 90? I don't think it change much.

Now, let's stop overhyping the Marlies depth. We aren't the 1970's Canadiens on the back-end. A player who is on track to be a productive NHLer, which should be the hope for Durzi, should be able to earn a development spot on the Marlies. The Marlies end goal is to develop players for the NHL. Liljegren and Holl should be a strong enough RHD to anchor the top 2 pairings, which means we can easily drop Subban or Loverde who have a limited long-term upside for us. These are both guys who have already been given up on by other organizations, even if he isn't quite as good as them right now, Durzi should be able to get a spot for developmental purposes, otherwise, the priorities of the Marlies need to be re-examined. Its nice to win, and create a winning culture, but the end goal is to produce NHL players, Loverde is unlikely to be that, and so is Subban, at that point you allocate those bottom pairing minutes to a player you have hope for. If Durzi isn't capable of playing bottom pairing minutes in the AHL at 20, that isn't a good pattern to be placing faith in.

Yes, I get your point about ecological fallacy, but then using that logic there is no point in using any analytics or trends to evaluate a players development. Every player is unique and can create their own trend. But, that doesn't make it likely or a reason to be optimistic. I get people are excited about these new "paths" of development that the Leafs may be exploring, but until the Leafs show they can re-invent the wheel of player development by using the ECHL or sending guys back for an overage season, I'm going to be conservative on the odds of it working.

Everyone is talking about the Bracco treatment, but let's keep in mind, that was probably not the original plan. But, due to contracting mono in the off-season they had to play it slow with him.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

To add some fuel to the fire as to where Durzi may end up next year (now I'll add the caveat that maybe he's injured right now or something), but Mac Hollowell got called back up to Leafs camp to replace Gardiner, who is leaving for personal reasons (which is believed to be a baby but it's a short term thing).

Now that doesn't say that Hollowell is ahead of him because he shouldn't be, especially if injuries play a part in things, but I am not sure that plays well to his Marlies prospect if Hollowell is the first guy they turn to if everyone is healthy.