Prospect Info: Prospects and Marlies Thread: Marlies Calder Cup Champions Edition - Pre-Season

[BertCorbeau]

Good time to roll into a new thread with the pre-season thread now here.

Click to read more...

 

[Lil Tuzzi Bert]

Rasanen with his first goal of the season today

 

[Lauro]

Durzi or not, the most interesting question will be.

 

[saltming]

What is pres season @BertCorbeau?

 

[BertCorbeau]

What is pres season @BertCorbeau?

Wasn't me - @ULF_55 is trying to sabotage me by copying posts into a new thread

 

[ULF_55]

Wasn't me - @ULF_55 is trying to sabotage me by copying posts into a new thread

President's Season.

 

[saltming]

Wasn't me - @ULF_55 is trying to sabotage me by copying posts into a new thread

@ULF_55 is a shifty character for sure

 

[93LEAFS]

Durzi or not, the most interesting question will be.

He needs to crack the Marlies. 2nd round picks should never be in Junior for their 20 year old season. There is nothing left for him to learn there with the AHL available.

 

[Mr Hockey]

This is not the usual picking of a 17/18 year old in the 2nd round, lets see how the Leafs handle this special situation.

 

[Kiwi]

He needs to crack the Marlies. 2nd round picks should never be in Junior for their 20 year old season. There is nothing left for him to learn there with the AHL available.

If he doesn't I'm going to be concerned, he's already beaten up on the OHL last season so graduating into the AHL seems like then next logical step

Working with our development staff every day is a bonus as well

 

[93LEAFS]

If he doesn't I'm going to be concerned, he's already beaten up on the OHL last season so graduating into the AHL seems like then next logical step

Working with our development staff every day is a bonus as well

Flat out, if he isn't in the AHL this year, he would have to beat significant trends to become a good NHL player. I can't think of one example of a good top 60 pick who was a success in the NHL level (and I'm using a low barometer such as a quality top 9 forward or top 5 Defender) who either played in the ECHL or OHL in their 20-year-old season, not including goalies who have unique development curves. There are obviously the case of the late bloomers who did it who were either picked late in the draft or went undrafted who did. But, in the top 60, I think we would be very hard pressed to find a positive example. I know people talk about utilizing our ECHL team more and such, and maybe we figure out how to do that effectively, but currently? I'm not buying it until I see some track record of effective ECHLers who become successful NHL players who were developed in this manner.

 

[Kiwi]

Flat out, if he isn't in the AHL this year, he would have to beat significant trends to become a good NHL player. I can't think of one example of a good top 60 pick who was a success in the NHL level (and I'm using a low barometer such as a quality top 9 forward or top 5 Defender) who either played in the ECHL or OHL in their 20-year-old season, not including goalies who have unique development curves. There are obviously the case of the late bloomers who did it who were either picked late in the draft or went undrafted who did. But, in the top 60, I think we would be very hard pressed to find a positive example. I know people talk about utilizing our ECHL team more and such, and maybe we figure out how to do that effectively, but currently? I'm not buying it until I see some track record of effective ECHLers who become successful NHL players who were developed in this manner.

When we picked him at that age at #52 his ability to step into the AHL this season shouldn't be in doubt and if it is we have ****** up badly with our selection

Picking overagers is supposed to work because you actually have more track record on their current path and trajectory so it's a giant mistake if he's not hitting his expected level this early in the process

He's a 2nd round pick so he should be getting priority over pretty much everybody on the Marlies not named Liljegren at this point, some PP time on the 2nd unit wouldn't hurt either

 

[Stand Witness]

I am pretty confident Durzi will get the Bracco treatment for the Marlies this season.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I am pretty confident Durzi will get the Bracco treatment for the Marlies this season.

Bracco was set up much better than Durzi right now. Even Liljegren was set up better than last year in terms of competition, plus was far more dominant and highly touted in comparison to Durzi.

Excluding Durzi and Hollowell, there are 8 defensemen on SPC's with the Marlies right now. Nielsen, Rosen, Borgman, and Liljegren are the only ones who can go to the ECHL right now, and you can notice that 3 of them are LD's (not RD's like Durzi). Also, all of them should not be in the ECHL. They are too good. Plus the Leafs already had to send Lindgren, who was also on an SPC, back to Finland because there was not enough room for him on the RD. So unlike Liljegren last year where you could have made some room for him if you decided to make Valiev a 7D, it's a lot tougher for Durzi. You would have to either make Nielsen or Subban (who was just signed and would occupy the exact role Durzi would) a 9th defenseman (as they are 7th/8th defensemen right now) and you can not send Subban to the Growlers. Considering Paliotta rarely played as an 8th defenseman last year (which is why the Marlies need to work on moving out defensemen, not bringing new ones in), I doubt you ever play as a 9th defenseman on the Marlies.

I think they end up back in the OHL. Just because they do well offensively does not mean they do not have room to grow defensively. Just like a lack of offense can make a player look worse than they are, a strong offense can overshadow some defensive deficiencies the player may have. Durzi and Hollowell looked like they still had room to grow defensively. Since they do not have the luxury Liljegren has to learn on the job in the AHL, then they can learn to do in the OHL. Otherwise, they can try to do it on the Growlers. There is some room for them there as well, but people do not think the ECHL is really any better than the OHL for their development.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Flat out, if he isn't in the AHL this year, he would have to beat significant trends to become a good NHL player. I can't think of one example of a good top 60 pick who was a success in the NHL level (and I'm using a low barometer such as a quality top 9 forward or top 5 Defender) who either played in the ECHL or OHL in their 20-year-old season, not including goalies who have unique development curves. There are obviously the case of the late bloomers who did it who were either picked late in the draft or went undrafted who did. But, in the top 60, I think we would be very hard pressed to find a positive example. I know people talk about utilizing our ECHL team more and such, and maybe we figure out how to do that effectively, but currently? I'm not buying it until I see some track record of effective ECHLers who become successful NHL players who were developed in this manner.

Holl was an NCAAer, but he was a top 60 pick who went through the NCAA until he was like 23 or something and then ended up in the ECHL before working up from there. He was a late bloomer, but you can end up in the ECHL your first year and still make it.

Although I adamantly believe Durzi was not worth a top 60 pick. I thought the Leafs may consider taking a flier on him with their 3rd round pick (if there was not someone better). Reaching for him at 52 with much better players out there shocked me. It's not entirely common (but not entirely rare) to see what Durzi did in the OHL. However it was definitely not worth a 2nd round pick considering he did it as a 98' OFD. What Hollowell did was not really worth a pick at all. Guys do that all of the time, especially when they play cushy roles on elite teams like SSM was last year. Not only that but he is seriously undersized and does not really have the skill to make up for it. I wouldn't be shocked if he regresses if he ends up in SSM again this year. He'll be the 1D and be given a ton of opportunities, but SSM is likely going to be a rebuilding team next year. He's not going to be the #3 or the #4 he was last year, behind Timmins, Sandin, Carroll, etc.

 

[Boutette]

Otherwise, they can try to do it on the Growlers. There is some room for them there as well, but people do not think the ECHL is really any better than the OHL for their development.

The advantage of playing in the ECHL in terms of development, IMHO, is that 1. they will be playing against men. 2. If they prove they are too good against ECHL opponents, its easier to promote them to the Marlies. At their level of development, its probably good that they start playing full years against men instead of dominating kids. Works for the Europeans, as we have seen. And even if they end up playing around 40 games, say, for the Marlies, well, that's how many games Liligren played last year, and most here think that playing with men was great for his development.

 

[Cor]

When we picked him at that age at #52 his ability to step into the AHL this season shouldn't be in doubt and if it is we have ****** up badly with our selection

Picking overagers is supposed to work because you actually have more track record on their current path and trajectory so it's a giant mistake if he's not hitting his expected level this early in the process

He's a 2nd round pick so he should be getting priority over pretty much everybody on the Marlies not named Liljegren at this point, some PP time on the 2nd unit wouldn't hurt either

The Marlies defense is pretty loaded. We've sent Lindgren back to Sweden due to the lack of spots. Saying Durzi not making that defense months after being drafted means it was a bad pick incredibly short sighted.

 

[Kiwi]

The Marlies defense is pretty loaded. We've sent Lindgren back to Sweden due to the lack of spots. Saying Durzi not making that defense months after being drafted means it was a bad pick incredibly short sighted.

No Cor I'm saying if you pick a guy that age in the 2nd round you better be damn sure he's tracking to a level that is usual for a normal NHL player when you pick him

He should be in the AHL this season and should get priority over most of the other guys with his age and 2nd round status and if he's not it's a screw up

 

[SeaOfBlue]

No Cor I'm saying if you pick a guy that age in the 2nd round you better be damn sure he's tracking to a level that is usual for a normal NHL player when you pick him

He should be in the AHL this season and should get priority over most of the other guys with his age and 2nd round status and if he's not it's a screw up

Unfortunately those other guys are not going to be playing on a defense as good as the Marlies'. It's not like the Marlies would end up playing Hollowell over him or something. There is just no room for him, and they kind of made it that way from the beginning by signing Subban. Injuries could happen. Maybe even a couple guys get claimed or traded. Barring that, there is practically no way for them to reasonable justify any move they could make to accommodate Durzi. Sending Nielsen to the ECHL looks bad and does not really solve anything since he's playing on the opposite side. Benching LoVerde or Holl looks bad considering how important they are to the Marlies defense (and the fact that Holl just got a new deal). They definitely won't bench Liljegren. They are already essentially benching Subban as is, so it's tough to bench him even more. Plus they just signed him a week after drafting Durzi (and knowing he would be AHL eligible and likely taking the same sort of spot/role as Subban would on the Marlies right away).

I just think Dubas is taking the "slow development" thing to heart. Despite his offensive numbers, he still has things to learn and grow. Offensive numbers are not everything, especially in the CHL. Very few defensemen make it to the NHL as any sort of offensive defenseman these days, and those who do are far better at it than he is. It would be a different story if he was like Conor Timmins. That's should be his goal.

 

[93LEAFS]

Holl was an NCAAer, but he was a top 60 pick who went through the NCAA until he was like 23 or something and then ended up in the ECHL before working up from there. He was a late bloomer, but you can end up in the ECHL your first year and still make it.

Although I adamantly believe Durzi was not worth a top 60 pick. I thought the Leafs may consider taking a flier on him with their 3rd round pick (if there was not someone better). Reaching for him at 52 with much better players out there shocked me. It's not entirely common (but not entirely rare) to see what Durzi did in the OHL. However it was definitely not worth a 2nd round pick considering he did it as a 98' OFD. What Hollowell did was not really worth a pick at all. Guys do that all of the time, especially when they play cushy roles on elite teams like SSM was last year. Not only that but he is seriously undersized and does not really have the skill to make up for it. I wouldn't be shocked if he regresses if he ends up in SSM again this year. He'll be the 1D and be given a ton of opportunities, but SSM is likely going to be a rebuilding team next year. He's not going to be the #3 or the #4 he was last year, behind Timmins, Sandin, Carroll, etc.

If Durzi is what Holl is, we probably get nothing out of him for our organization. He’ll have moved on for much less than a 2nd rounder at that point. Plus, Holl isn’t really a successful example. He’s not a full time NHLer at 27.

 

[93LEAFS]

The Marlies defense is pretty loaded. We've sent Lindgren back to Sweden due to the lack of spots. Saying Durzi not making that defense months after being drafted means it was a bad pick incredibly short sighted.

If you are drafting a guy in the 2nd round, he shouldn’t be in the CHL or ECHL at 20. There are almost no successful examples of players doing that and going on to be NHLers of value. He would be the first since I looked back since 2005.

If he’s good enough, you cut old depth and use a development. Spot on him.

 

[Cor]

No Cor I'm saying if you pick a guy that age in the 2nd round you better be damn sure he's tracking to a level that is usual for a normal NHL player when you pick him

He should be in the AHL this season and should get priority over most of the other guys with his age and 2nd round status and if he's not it's a screw up

It's not a screw up. Whether he spends another season in junior, or playing sporadically with the Marlies while working with our development staff like Jeremy Bracco did. Same thing with Mac Hollowell.

This also isn't a typical AHL defense. Let's assume Rosen, Oz, Carrick and Dermott are the 5-8 d-men for the Leafs. On the Marlies, that means we have,

Martin Marincin - Timothy Liljegren
Andreas Borgman - Justin Holl
Andrew Nielsen - Jordan Subban

Rasmus Sandin might be with the Marlies. We have Vincent LoVerde as well. We also have all the players who are just signed to AHL deals, primarily Alex Gudbranson and Stefan LeBlanc.

At the end of the day, one of, if not both of, Mac Hollowell and Sean Durzi are likely going to play overage seasons, and there is nothing wrong with that given how jam packed that defense is. While you may be willing to throw Subban, and Holl and Borgman, and Nielsen, and Marincin and LoVerde aside, that's not how things work.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

If Durzi is what Holl is, we probably get nothing out of him for our organization. He’ll have moved on for much less than a 2nd rounder at that point. Plus, Holl isn’t really a successful example. He’s not a full time NHLer at 27.

I know but a lot of people think he's pretty awesome and think he should be. I do not know. I do not think he's anything special but then again I would not have drafted Durzi in the first place either. And I definitely would not waste his time by trying to cram him on the Marlies thie year.

I think we just have to accept that he's probably not going to be on the Marlies this year. He did not survive the first round of NHL cuts, and the Leafs flat out made two signings within a week or two of drafting him (re-signing Holl for two years and signing Subban) that significantly reduced his chance of having a spot on the Marlies without major maneuvering or injury. So unless Dubas suddenly got disenchanted by his second most reliable AHL defenseman last year in LoVerde or decided Liljegren is better off somewhere else, where do you put Durzi?

 

[Cor]

If you are drafting a guy in the 2nd round, he shouldn’t be in the CHL or ECHL at 20. There are almost no successful examples of players doing that and going on to be NHLers of value. He would be the first since I looked back since 2005.

If he’s good enough, you cut old depth and use a development. Spot on him.

Alex Pietrangelo was assigned to the Barrie Colts in January 2010, just days before his 20th birthday.

The CHL is a development league. There is nothing wrong with these two players spending their D+2 in the CHL.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

It's not a screw up. Whether he spends another season in junior, or playing sporadically with the Marlies while working with our development staff like Jeremy Bracco did. Same thing with Mac Hollowell.

This also isn't a typical AHL defense. Let's assume Rosen, Oz, Carrick and Dermott are the 5-8 d-men for the Leafs. On the Marlies, that means we have,

Martin Marincin - Timothy Liljegren
Andreas Borgman - Justin Holl
Andrew Nielsen - Jordan Subban

Rasmus Sandin might be with the Marlies. We have Vincent LoVerde as well. We also have all the players who are just signed to AHL deals, primarily Alex Gudbranson and Stefan LeBlanc.

At the end of the day, one of, if not both of, Mac Hollowell and Sean Durzi are likely going to play overage seasons, and there is nothing wrong with that given how jam packed that defense is. While you may be willing to throw Subban, and Holl and Borgman, and Nielsen, and Marincin and LoVerde aside, that's not how things work.

I do not think you even see the Leafs use 8 defensemen, since Rosen would likely sit in the press box and it's a complete waste for him to be there with waiver-exemption. Plus LoVerde definitely plays in the top 6 over Subban. That gives you the 8 I've got.

I'm serious, I'd be surprised if one of Nielsen or Subban (likely Subban) gets more than 10 games next year without some sort of injury increasing his playing time. If everyone stays healthy, getting him 10 games would be a chore in itself. Now add Durzi to that mix as well... How does everyone get playing time unless you send Durzi or Nielsen to the ECHL. Nielsen is too good for the ECHL, and you might as well just send Durzi back to the OHL rather than the ECHL.