Had a long post typed out with a lottery analogy but there were too many holes in the analogy.
Basically the gist is this - I’d rather have one Jamie Benn than 10 Matt Tennysons. Playing it safe in the late rounds to find someone whose upside is merely as a “tweener” is utterly pointless, because tweeners are so easy to find regardless. Not only that, but if you “go for it”, a bunch of those boom or bust guys will probably end up as tweeners anyway.
In that vein, one of my favorite moves this franchise has made was signing Sergei Tolchinsky. Didn’t work out, but it sure could’ve.
In the 5th-7th rounds give me the guy who put up 45 goals in his draft+1 year a year after going undrafted over the stay-at-home guy that tops out as an NHL 7D any day.
Give me 2 picks in the late 5th round over 1 in the early 5th round any day too. If I knew which 5th rounder was going to be a star, I and everyone else wouldn’t have waited until the 5th round. Frankly no one knows anything once you get down later. Sure your scouts have seen them and have opinions, but no NHL team has cracked the code. Gimme 2 chances instead of 1, even if yours is from slightly closer to the dartboard.
I know it’s not that simple because guys typically don’t neatly fall into “boom or bust” or “safe” picks, but the goal should absolutely be to pick 1st line forwards and top pairing defensemen. Build your organizational “depth” with guys that fell short of that, not guys who met their ceiling as 4th liners. We can always trade for Jordan Martinook later, can’t always trade for Jaccob Slavin.