Prospect Info: Prospect Info and Discussion VIII - Future Canes and other Jurcos

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Somebody here (I think it was Kev....err @My Special Purpose ) talked about an analysis that was done on draft picks with an eye toward the value of using picks to trade up in the draft versus just using the picks. I think the conclusion was the same as your dart analogy....they're all lottery tickets, but it's better to have a 2 in a billion chance vs, a 1 in a billion chance.

That’s Dubas’s big thing actually - once you get out of the top 10 or so it’s almost always better to trade down (within reason of course) and grab extra darts.

 

[SolidSnakeUS]

Curious, do you think Necas will be in the starting line up next year? During his AHL stint this year, if anyone knows, what kind of linemates/line # has he been a part of usually game in and game out?

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Curious, do you think Necas will be in the starting line up next year? During his AHL stint this year, if anyone knows, what kind of linemates/line # has he been a part of usually game in and game out?

Probably will be pencilled in to the third line exactly like he was this year. Then probably given a few games like this year to show he’s ready. If not, back down again.

True rinse and repeat of last year IMO.

 

[SolidSnakeUS]

Probably will be pencilled in to the third line exactly like he was this year. Then probably given a few games like this year to show he’s ready. If not, back down again.

True rinse and repeat of last year IMO.

Hopefully longer than one game though .

 

[Chrispy]

Hopefully longer than one game though .

7 games, but there's not the same benefit to keeping him in Charlotte next year that there is this year.

Keeping him in Charlotte this year slid his ELC again and kept him exempt in the expansion draft. Next year the expansion draft isn't relevant and his ELC cannot slide anymore.

 

[SolidSnakeUS]

7 games, but there's not the same benefit to keeping him in Charlotte next year that there is this year.

Keeping him in Charlotte this year slid his ELC again and kept him exempt in the expansion draft. Next year the expansion draft isn't relevant and his ELC cannot slide anymore.

You are correct. Forgot that this is his second year. Slipped my mind.

 

[emptyNedder]

That’s Dubas’s big thing actually - once you get out of the top 10 or so it’s almost always better to trade down (within reason of course) and grab extra darts.

I heard a fascinating Hockey-Graphs podcast--Namita Nandakumar talking about risk aversion and drafting--on this subject. The darts analogy would be that while each pick gets farther from the board the best strategy is to try for a bullseye on every throw, even if that means more complete misses. According to Nandakumar the best way to optimize picks is to try to find a possible first-line forward or first pairing d-man even in the late rounds. It was quite convincing. I will start a 2019 draft thread over the weekend and make a few suggestions of players who could be high-reward players.

 

[SaskCanesFan]

Somebody here (I think it was Kev....err @My Special Purpose ) talked about an analysis that was done on draft picks with an eye toward the value of using picks to trade up in the draft versus just using the picks. I think the conclusion was the same as your dart analogy....they're all lottery tickets, but it's better to have a 2 in a billion chance vs, a 1 in a billion chance.

I've seen one or two analysis like that, but they were based off the NFL which is an awful comparison.

 

[Chrispy]

I've seen one or two analysis like that, but they were based off the NFL which is an awful comparison.

There have been similar ones for the NHL. Most of them show what was mentioned above: there's a precipitous drop-off so by the back end of the first round (maybe even middle) you're in a large dart throw region.

Draft Theory: On Risk and Reward - NHL Numbers , a 2015 story on this, showed this graph:

Even by midway through the 1st, you appear to be (edit: around, not quite below yet) a 50% chance of 200+ NHL games from a draft pick. There is an added value in 2nd and 3rd round picks over later picks, but it's of a difference than in those top 1st round picks.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Had a long post typed out with a lottery analogy but there were too many holes in the analogy.

Basically the gist is this - I’d rather have one Jamie Benn than 10 Matt Tennysons. Playing it safe in the late rounds to find someone whose upside is merely as a “tweener” is utterly pointless, because tweeners are so easy to find regardless. Not only that, but if you “go for it”, a bunch of those boom or bust guys will probably end up as tweeners anyway.

In that vein, one of my favorite moves this franchise has made was signing Sergei Tolchinsky. Didn’t work out, but it sure could’ve.

In the 5th-7th rounds give me the guy who put up 45 goals in his draft+1 year a year after going undrafted over the stay-at-home guy that tops out as an NHL 7D any day.

Give me 2 picks in the late 5th round over 1 in the early 5th round any day too. If I knew which 5th rounder was going to be a star, I and everyone else wouldn’t have waited until the 5th round. Frankly no one knows anything once you get down later. Sure your scouts have seen them and have opinions, but no NHL team has cracked the code. Gimme 2 chances instead of 1, even if yours is from slightly closer to the dartboard.

I know it’s not that simple because guys typically don’t neatly fall into “boom or bust” or “safe” picks, but the goal should absolutely be to pick 1st line forwards and top pairing defensemen. Build your organizational “depth” with guys that fell short of that, not guys who met their ceiling as 4th liners. We can always trade for Jordan Martinook later, can’t always trade for Jaccob Slavin.

 

[emptyNedder]

I know it’s not that simple because guys typically don’t neatly fall into “boom or bust” or “safe” picks, but the goal should absolutely be to pick 1st line forwards and top pairing defensemen.

I work with risk analysis--modeling has become a big part of my job. There may be some variables that regular scouts have overlooked that a simple formula might identify.

We can always trade for Jordan Martinook later, can’t always trade for Jaccob Slavin.

But you can get Slavin in the 4th, or Pesce in the 3rd, or Spurgeon in the 6th, or Nutivaara in the 7th. And while correlation doesn't prove causation, I see some common variables in these players. I will elaborate in the post about the draft.

 

[emptyNedder]

Helvig apparently can't be overworked. Not sure what happened, but Booth left's Wednesday's game near the halfway point and Helvig stopped all 17 shots he faced. Then he stopped 29 of 31 last night. So he got the start again tonight and stopped 38 of 40. Too bad the Everblades don't have an early game tomorrow.

 

[zman77]

 

[zman77]

 

[DougieSmash]

Josh Bean > adam fox

 

[SvechneJerk]

 

[Unsustainable]

Josh Bean > adam fox

Mr Bean > Faux

 

[Kaako Kappo]

Saarela seems to be having another good season. Can someone who watches him tell me why he hasn't gotten a chance? Does he have any NHL future?

 

[emptyNedder]

Helvig struggled to start the game last night giving up 2 goals on first four shots. Then he stopped the next 20 as the Everblades won in OT. The Canes have a battler. Will be interesting to see who gets the net in Charlotte next season.

 

[spockBokk]

Saarela seems to be having another good season. Can someone who watches him tell me why he hasn't gotten a chance? Does he have any NHL future?

Think the impression was at the beginning of this year was that he does not work hard enough on the defensive side of the game, and because of that, he was the first prospect sent to Charlotte in training camp.

I think there’s some offensive upside there and think he’d be at decent third line scoring winger, maybe good for 15g/15a a year. His shot would certainly be welcome in the Canes PP. However, I’m not so sure his nhl future will be with CAR. They’ve got other guys who are righties, a huge team need, like Necas, Geekie, Gauthier and Mattheos, who probably are higher in the team’s depth chart based on how Brind’Amour wants them to play.

I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s an add-in to a Faulk/TVR trade this offseason, or if he says screw it, and heads back to Europe instead of toiling away for a 3rd year in Charlotte.

 

[SaskCanesFan]

Isn't Saarela a left shot? I think there could definitely be a third line spot available to him next year, depending on what moves the team makes

His shot would be a big asset, they need to find some way to make the third line a danger to score if they really want to compete. I don't see how Geekie or Gauthier are more of a team need

 

[emptyNedder]

Isn't Saarela a left shot? I think there could definitely be a third line spot available to him next year, depending on what moves the team makes

Haven't given too much thought to next season given all the remaining excitement. But a third line of Saarela/Staal/Necas might work with Staal providing the stability while Necas and Saarela race around the ice.

Think the impression was at the beginning of this year was that he does not work hard enough on the defensive side of the game

Saarela isn't the forechecker that players like Foegele and Maenalanen are. But he isn't a defensive liability, at least in the AHL.

 

[Dishface]

Something seems to be missing, can't put my finger on it.

 

[Cardiac Jerks]

Good simulation. Keep Edmonton away from the top picks. Buffalo, too.

 

[spockBokk]

Isn't Saarela a left shot?

I don't see how Geekie or Gauthier are more of a team need

He is a left shot.

I personally think the fact that Geekie, Gauthier and Mattheos being right shots gives them a leg up on Saarela. I’d love to see him succeed, just don’t see it with CAR.