Prospect Info: Prospect Info and Discussion VIII - Future Canes and other Jurcos

[NotOpie]

I'd be comfortable with Mrazek as our starter....okay, well as comfortable as a Canes fan is allowed to be when it comes to goaltending. I'd also be wary, but not totally scared shitless of Ned being our back up. Frankly, I think the team will need to determine are they better with 2 goalies that essentially have the same style? Or are they more comfortable with the scenario they have this year....one more focused on athleticism and reaction and one more focused on positioning, technique, and solid goalie skills.

In the grand scheme of things I'd also be fine with giving Petr a 3 year deal (something like 3 years/$10 million), but I'd prefer a 2 year deal. Then if we could get Mac signed to a 1 or 2 year deal, that would work too. I just think that @Boom Boom Apathy is right about other teams offering more for McElhinney than we would be willing to pay (in term or actual dollars). Yet, even if we do re-sign both of our existing tandem, there's no guarantee that injuries or poor play wouldn't give Ned his shot anyway.

It's so weird having goaltending options that don't suck.

 

[DougieSmash]

Pretty hyped for Mattheos, Sellgren and Luostarinen. Necas and Bean are legit. Not sure about Fox. Saarela could be sneaky good, i wonder about Kuokk. Good IQ, good playmaker, good shot but was meh in his NHL stint.

 

[SvechneJerk]

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Wow we're gonna get Vesey'd by Cotton.

And by Fox.

And our 2010 7th round pick is now backstopping the Leafs and will be a Vezina finalist.

Darn.

 

[Bonin21]

People never figure it out. Cotton can become a free agent July 1 of THIS SUMMER. He played a year of juniors after getting drafted. He's in the Wheeler situation. Not the Vesey situation.

 

[Cardiac Jerks]

As a later round pick I can understand his choice. Could still sign with us and if he doesn’t, while it’s unfortunate, it’s not the end of the world.

 

[NotOpie]

People never figure it out. Cotton can become a free agent July 1 of THIS SUMMER. He played a year of juniors after getting drafted. He's in the Wheeler situation. Not the Vesey situation.

Very interesting....thought it was August 15, but I'm no expert. Regardless, he has put in 4 years since his draft. Wonder if there's language around his return to BC and the Canes retaining the rights until the following Summer.

Edit: Read on DraftSite that the drafting team retains the rights to the player until 30 days after they leave college. Not sure that matters in this case though.

 

[DougieSmash]

I like Cotton but he's not better prispect than Necas, Luostarinen, Mattheos and Drury. Not big deal.

 

[Lempo]

People never figure it out. Cotton can become a free agent July 1 of THIS SUMMER. He played a year of juniors after getting drafted. He's in the Wheeler situation. Not the Vesey situation.

Do we know for sure? CBA 8.1(c)(i) says:

If a Player drafted at age 18 or 19 is a bona fide college student at the time of his selection in the Entry Draft, or becomes a bona fide college student prior to the first June 1 following his selection in the Entry Draft, and remains a bona fide college student through the graduation of his college class, his drafting Club shall retain the exclusive right of negotiation for his services through and including the August 15 following the graduation of his college class. The Club need not make a Bona Fide Offer to such Player to retain such rights.

I don't know the technical side, but if he was enrolled prior June 1st, 2016 (and stays in school), he's ours until August 15th of his graduation year. Elite says we has his rights currently after three NCAA seasons, so educated guess says that he is deemed a "college student" and this section applies. Do note it doesn't say "fourth June 1st after the Draft" anywhere. A sabbatical after the draft pushes it up to five.

Wheeler was under previous CBA. I'd be wary of likening the situation.

edit: By subsection (ii), if Cotton left the school and stopped being bona fide college student, it would be the fourth June 1st after the Draft (or 30 days after giving the notice, whichever latter). But he's in school still.

He obviously can leave the school any moment, but. (if he don't do it before the graduation year starts though, his ass is ours until August!)

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

People never figure it out. Cotton can become a free agent July 1 of THIS SUMMER. He played a year of juniors after getting drafted. He's in the Wheeler situation. Not the Vesey situation.

In my case, it is definitely for lack of trying.

 

[Chrispy]

Do we know for sure? CBA 8.1(c)(i) says:

If a Player drafted at age 18 or 19 is a bona fide college student at the time of his selection in the Entry Draft, or becomes a bona fide college student prior to the first June 1 following his selection in the Entry Draft, and remains a bona fide college student through the graduation of his college class, his drafting Club shall retain the exclusive right of negotiation for his services through and including the August 15 following the graduation of his college class. The Club need not make a Bona Fide Offer to such Player to retain such rights.

I don't know the technical side, but if he was enrolled prior June 1st, 2016 (and stays in school), he's ours until August 15th of his graduation year. Elite says we has his rights currently after three NCAA seasons, so educated guess says that he is deemed a "college student" and this section applies. Do note it doesn't say "fourth June 1st after the Draft" anywhere. A sabbatical after the draft pushes it up to five.

Wheeler was under previous CBA. I'd be wary of likening the situation.

edit: By subsection (ii), if Cotton left the school and stopped being bona fide college student, it would be the fourth June 1st after the Draft (or 30 days after giving the notice, whichever latter). But he's in school still.

He obviously can leave the school any moment, but. (if he don't do it before the graduation year starts though, his ass is ours until August!)

Whether or not he ends up here, that at least makes me feel better. I was imagining him getting peppered with GMs trying to entice him to leave school. At least this way, it's tampering as long as he's in school as he's still Carolina property.

 

[izzy]

idk cotton is having a hell of a year

be lame to lose him

 

[Bonin21]

Do we know for sure? CBA 8.1(c)(i) says:

If a Player drafted at age 18 or 19 is a bona fide college student at the time of his selection in the Entry Draft, or becomes a bona fide college student prior to the first June 1 following his selection in the Entry Draft, and remains a bona fide college student through the graduation of his college class, his drafting Club shall retain the exclusive right of negotiation for his services through and including the August 15 following the graduation of his college class. The Club need not make a Bona Fide Offer to such Player to retain such rights.

I don't know the technical side, but if he was enrolled prior June 1st, 2016 (and stays in school), he's ours until August 15th of his graduation year. Elite says we has his rights currently after three NCAA seasons, so educated guess says that he is deemed a "college student" and this section applies. Do note it doesn't say "fourth June 1st after the Draft" anywhere. A sabbatical after the draft pushes it up to five.

Wheeler was under previous CBA. I'd be wary of likening the situation.

edit: By subsection (ii), if Cotton left the school and stopped being bona fide college student, it would be the fourth June 1st after the Draft (or 30 days after giving the notice, whichever latter). But he's in school still.

He obviously can leave the school any moment, but. (if he don't do it before the graduation year starts though, his ass is ours until August!)

Justin Schultz is another example and I can probably remember more if I try.

Essentially the kids drop out of school officially and become a UFA 30 days later or something. I know it's June 1 or July 1.

If he has some weird early enrollment thing I'm wrong, but this is the way I've seen it play out almost always.

 

[Lempo]

Justin Schultz is another example and I can probably remember more if I try.

Essentially the kids drop out of school officially and become a UFA 30 days later or something. I know it's June 1 or July 1.

If he has some weird early enrollment thing I'm wrong, but this is the way I've seen it play out almost always.

No, we both are talking of the same thing here. My two last paragraphs (after "edit") is exactly about this drop out method you're describing.

But if he signs in the spring with us while the season 2018-19 is on, we can burn off the first year of his ELC by playing him even one game and speed up his route to a better-paying contract. If he goes the draft-related UFA way, he serves his full ELC (2 years).

 

[bleedgreen]

I honestly don’t know that Cotton is a notably better prospect than Lorentz. Sucks to lose him but I wouldn’t freak out yet. Fox hurts way worse as of today.

 

[Brock Anton]

I like Cotton but he's not better prispect than Necas, Luostarinen, Mattheos and Drury. Not big deal.

After today, let's not count those chickens before they hatch.

 

[ookhaab]

Does anyone have the stats for Necas at wing vs center this year?

 

[NotOpie]

I honestly don’t know that Cotton is a notably better prospect than Lorentz. Sucks to lose him but I wouldn’t freak out yet. Fox hurts way worse as of today.

Bleed, it just sucks to lose guys who have shown development progression. Fox has taken off this year, but I agree, he may be another Ryan Murphy-esque guy. I do believe his hockey IQ is readily apparent and vastly superior to Murphy's. Cotton has gotten progressively better each year of college. His Freshman year, I believe, he stepped in for Colin White (when White went off to play in the WJCs) and centered BC's top line. The next year he increased his point output, splitting time between center and wing if I'm not mistaken. Most of this season he's played on the wing and really improved his goal scoring prowess. The biggest change in his game, apparently, is an improved shot.

Lorentz is cut more from the Jordan Staal type of cloth. He's got some skill, but mostly he gets by on size, strength, and grit. Cotton is a better skater, better stickhandler, and has a much better shot.

The point is, it isn't the end of the world on either guy, but having new, skilled blood come onto the team is a good thing. Losing it for nothing isn't.

 

[poobags]

I just hope this doesn't make us scared to draft NCAA bound players in the later rounds. I'm sure no one needs reminding but Slavin, Pesce, and Faulk are all US college hockey products. I feel like a player going to free agency is the same as a bust. It's harder to accept but the effect on the team's future is the same. Fox is unique case since we traded for him rather than drafting but the result is the same.

 

[Joe McGrath]

Aho has Holtby dead to rights if he hit the five hole.

 

[My Special Purpose]

Aho has Holtby dead to rights if he hit the five hole.

You had all kinds of trouble finding the right thread tonight. Drunk? Playoff jitters?

 

[Joe McGrath]

You had all kinds of trouble finding the right thread tonight. Drunk? Playoff jitters?

Trying to work, take care of kids, etc.

Game is over, kids in bed, work done, now I’m drunk.

 

[bleedgreen]

Bleed, it just sucks to lose guys who have shown development progression. Fox has taken off this year, but I agree, he may be another Ryan Murphy-esque guy. I do believe his hockey IQ is readily apparent and vastly superior to Murphy's. Cotton has gotten progressively better each year of college. His Freshman year, I believe, he stepped in for Colin White (when White went off to play in the WJCs) and centered BC's top line. The next year he increased his point output, splitting time between center and wing if I'm not mistaken. Most of this season he's played on the wing and really improved his goal scoring prowess. The biggest change in his game, apparently, is an improved shot.

Lorentz is cut more from the Jordan Staal type of cloth. He's got some skill, but mostly he gets by on size, strength, and grit. Cotton is a better skater, better stickhandler, and has a much better shot.

The point is, it isn't the end of the world on either guy, but having new, skilled blood come onto the team is a good thing. Losing it for nothing isn't.

I agree completely. I don’t like that we may have lost either one. Cotton may turn out, I’ve watched him on and off throughout his career. I’ve never been fully convinced he’s good enough to make it but he’s advanced pretty far from his draft. It’s just a huge jump to the nhl. I don’t see Cotton as being in the same class of skill as Vesey, and that guy really hasn’t impacted the way you’d hope.

Like you say losing guys for nothing hurts, especially the ones moving themselves up the ladder. I was just saying I think Fox is the better prospect so that hurts the most today. You’re right though, in the end they both hurt at least a little.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Yeah in the end it’s not unlike losing draft picks for nothing. Our 3rd round pick may turn out to be nothing this year, but I’d still rather select a player than give it up for free.

Organizational depth is, in the grand scheme of things, collecting an attractive array of darts. Guys may hit or they may miss, and you collect enough to hit enough times. If Fox and Cotton leave, we basically don’t even get a chance to throw those darts. Who knows, one might’ve been a bullseye. Yeah, in the end it’s no skin off our back because odds are neither will be stars (and Cotton may not even sniff the NHL), but it’s still a missed opportunity and it’s still frustrating.

 

[NotOpie]

Yeah in the end it’s not unlike losing draft picks for nothing. Our 3rd round pick may turn out to be nothing this year, but I’d still rather select a player than give it up for free.

Organizational depth is, in the grand scheme of things, collecting an attractive array of darts. Guys may hit or they may miss, and you collect enough to hit enough times. If Fox and Cotton leave, we basically don’t even get a chance to throw those darts. Who knows, one might’ve been a bullseye. Yeah, in the end it’s no skin off our back because odds are neither will be stars (and Cotton may not even sniff the NHL), but it’s still a missed opportunity and it’s still frustrating.

Somebody here (I think it was Kev....err @My Special Purpose ) talked about an analysis that was done on draft picks with an eye toward the value of using picks to trade up in the draft versus just using the picks. I think the conclusion was the same as your dart analogy....they're all lottery tickets, but it's better to have a 2 in a billion chance vs, a 1 in a billion chance.