Predict the Opening Night Roster

[MacDonald4MVP]

He's going to save the PK along with Folin.

Yeah, we are dead set on heavy trash. Gordon, Belly, Torgo and now Knight. Who's next, McFalls?

 

[macleish1974]

With Weise and Leier on waivers probably means that Corban Knight, when he returns will be in the Top 14, if not the Top12. Feel sorry for Leier, if he passes waivers, then he will be on the Phantoms and ugh Weise will be too since NOBODY will pick him up. Leier will be 17th forward. I think Weise and Big T are up before him as call ups.

 

[Rebels57]

OMG they really are on board with Knight as 4c.

Losing Bellemare must have really chapped their ass last year. Gotta have another talentless try-hard assume the role of 4C / PK "specialist."

 

[Rebels57]

With Weise and Leier on waivers probably means that Corban Knight, when he returns will be in the Top 14, if not the Top12. Feel sorry for Leier, if he passes waivers, then he will be on the Phantoms and ugh Weise will be too since NOBODY will pick him up. Leier will be 17th forward. I think Weise and Big T are up before him as call ups.

I hope Leier gets claimed and gets to play in the NHL, where he belongs over the likes of Lehtera and Knight.

 

[MacDonald4MVP]

I hope Leier gets claimed and gets to play in the NHL, where he belongs over the likes of Lehtera and Knight.

Hopefully not by stupid pens though.

 

[OrangeAndBlackMetal]

Giroux - Couturier - Konecny
VanRiemsdyk - Patrick - Voracek
Lindblom - Vorobyev - Simmonds
Raffl - Laughton - Weal
Leier, Weise, Lehtera

Provorov - Gostisbehere
Hagg - Folin
Sanheim - Gudas
MacDonald

Elliott
Stolarz

 

[Curufinwe]

Losing Bellemare must have really chapped their ass last year. Gotta have another talentless try-hard assume the role of 4C / PK "specialist."

Bellemare lead Vegas forwards in SH TOI and they had a top 10 PK. So it doesn't seem like he was part of the problem with the Flyers penalty kill.

He also produced 5 on 5 points (1.27/60) at close to the same rate as Raffl (1.2), Weal (1.24), Simmonds (1.29) and Laughton (1.36).

 

[SolidSnakeUS]

Bellemare lead Vegas forwards in SH TOI and they had a top 10 PK. So it doesn't seem like he was part of the problem with the Flyers penalty kill.

He also produced 5 on 5 points (1.27/60) at close to the same rate as Raffl (1.2), Weal (1.24), Simmonds (1.29) and Laughton (1.36).

This is Lappy, Hexy and Hak rolled into one about the PK:

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

Gotta say I am really happy that Stolie is in the mix. I thought due to the glut of goalies in the system and the solid (not great but passable) play by Alex Lyon that we would never see Stolie in O&B again. I would love to see Hart and Stolie in net for the next decade.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

I know that Stolie is not going to be the starter now or likely ever, but I am psyched he is at least on the team. I figured he'd be in ECHL to start the year.

 

[Hiesenberg]

I have very little doubt that the PK will be bottom 5 again.

I am also very confident that Lappy will return to be a failure.

 

[CapnZin]

The bell curve analogy is wrong, not because it's the wrong distribution (I haven't seen any data on the distribution of athletic talent and skill) but because pro athletes are all on the long tail to the right of the distribution, and so far out it's irrelevant what the distribution actually is.

That is, the top players are way out at the end of the tail, and most players are toward the fatter portion of the tail, up to a hypothetical point which would be "replacement level." To the left of replacement level are the AHL "lifers" and ECHL players and all the kids in college and juniors with no NHL future. So there are far more players who are replacement level or just below (since actual performance varies around their core value) than are solid NHL starters. Once all the solid starters have jobs, the remaining spots are filled with replacement players each year in a NHL version of "musical chairs."

Now what complicates this picture is that players rise up to solid starter or even allpro, but eventually decline to replacement level or below, so the names are constantly changing.

I think you literally described what I said up there lol.

The distribution is talent... now there’s not a nominal valuation for talent or even numerical that clearly depicts talent. That could be your argument for its relevance, however, replacement is synonymous with talent in this regard. What you’re arguing on behalf of “replacement level” is, in fact, not statistically correlated, but correlated on the talent or play of the player replacing.

The bell curve analogy is for NHL players. You can use any type of valuation for it as long as it’s normally distributed /60.

To reiterate this... the correlation isn’t dependent upon the statistics. This goes with my previous argument of just because Sam Gange scores 20 goals... it doesn’t make him a great goal scorer.

Andrew MacDonald is not a replacement level player. He’s regressed to a bottom pairing Dman, but that’s based on his play, his career stats and play hardly make him a replacement level player.

If the career of the player, is similar to sub par NHL metrics, you could say they’re a replacement level player. These stats can help you make an argument, but they can’t be your argument.

Look at the careers of Michael Haley, Jody Shelley, Colton Orr, Zac Rinaldo... these players are under this description. Their stats show that their only productions was in intangibles (fear, grit, forechecking... stuff like that). Their play can easily be replaced by the same basis of talent (other players similar in talent level, but that can produce more).

In today’s NHL... Danick Martel, Corban Knight, JT Brown, Mark Foligno, and players of such are who are defined as replacement NHL players... they can come in and fill a role (PK, checker, net front, or whatever) and not be totally out of place, but still play below the “required” NHL talent level.

 

[FLYguy3911]

The Flyers were only 6th worst in GA/60 on the PK in preseason. That doesn't include the game in LHV where they also gave up a goal on the PK.

 

[GKJ]

It's shocking considering he's 28 and has already been in the organization for 2 years and didn't get a sniff during those years.

I think he was closer than people think, we just had so much driftwood Hakstol was trying to force in.

 

[FLYguy3911]

I think he was closer than people think, we just had so much driftwood Hakstol was trying to force in.

Tyrell Goulbourne was called up to a fully healthy club. Knight wasn't close last year.

 

[Don Nachbaur 26]

Any word on Vorobyev's new number?

 

[deadhead]

Andrew MacDonald is not a replacement level player. He’s regressed to a bottom pairing Dman, but that’s based on his play, his career stats and play hardly make him a replacement level player.

If the career of the player, is similar to sub par NHL metrics, you could say they’re a replacement level player. These stats can help you make an argument, but they can’t be your argument.

Look at the careers of Michael Haley, Jody Shelley, Colton Orr, Zac Rinaldo... these players are under this description. Their stats show that their only productions was in intangibles (fear, grit, forechecking... stuff like that). Their play can easily be replaced by the same basis of talent (other players similar in talent level, but that can produce more).

In today’s NHL... Danick Martel, Corban Knight, JT Brown, Mark Foligno, and players of such are who are defined as replacement NHL players... they can come in and fill a role (PK, checker, net front, or whatever) and not be totally out of place, but still play below the “required” NHL talent level.

The underlying value of a player is unknowable, only the expression of that value, which will vary, take MacDonald, in his prime years his underlying value was probably 3rd pair defenseman, but his performance has varied year to year from to close to 2nd pair to replacement level. Now that he's 32 his underlying value is probably declining toward replacement level.

The trick for a GM is to be able to identify the underlying value, and not be fooled by a random blip in performancer, the difference between Weise and Raffl is that Raffl has consistently produced like a top 9, some years closer to top 6, whereas Weise had short stretches of good play but his long-term trend in his peak years is just above replacement at best.

The toughest judgement are players under 25 who show improvement, projecting how far that improvement will continue, and where they'll end up from say 24-30, was Hagg at 22 the best he'll be (marginally above replacement level) or can he become a solid 3rd pair defensemen in his prime years?

 

[SolidSnakeUS]

Any word on Vorobyev's new number?

Weirdly enough, I think #46 works for him.

 

[deadhead]

I think Knight is a matter of fit, he can PK, Weal can't, and Leier was a "fail" last year.
Knight is better defensively than Weal, and anyone is better offensively than Lehtera (unless his cocaine diet has made him quicker).

It's always been Weal's job to lose, but he has to finish, not just look pretty before losing the puck or taking a meh shot.
That to me, is the frustrating thing watching Weal, he seems to generate activity on offense, but not high danger scoring chances.

 

[FLYguy3911]

He wore 24 in Russia.

 

[Magua]

Yeah, #46 is gross, and Misha has a history with #24 for Team Russia and Ufa.

Lindblom also needs to wear #96. It's time.

I think Knight is a matter of fit, he can PK

Any way you slice it, Knight isn't better on the PK than Couturier, Raffl, Simmonds, Lindblom, Laughton, Giroux, Vorobyev, even Patrick it surprises me hasn't gotten a look. Knight isn't needed on the PK; using him as one of their top 4 PKers perhaps is more likely counterproductive, even if he does "OK." That the Flyers need to choose the right PKers, who have been here all along, and not search for plugs to PK is nothing new.

 

[Rebels57]

Bellemare lead Vegas forwards in SH TOI and they had a top 10 PK. So it doesn't seem like he was part of the problem with the Flyers penalty kill.

He also produced 5 on 5 points (1.27/60) at close to the same rate as Raffl (1.2), Weal (1.24), Simmonds (1.29) and Laughton (1.36).

He's still a talentless try-hard

I did like him A LOT more than VandeVelde in their time here.

If Knight were to player in 18-19 for us like Bellemare did in 17-18 for Vegas, that would be a very good thing.

 

[Curufinwe]

PEB has talent, just look at some of these goals! (I still think of this song as the Bellemare song cause that's where I first heard it )

 

[Rebels57]

I have very little doubt that the PK will be bottom 5 again.

I am also very confident that Lappy will return to be a failure.

The important thing is that they string together 20-25 good games to end the season so we can scrape into the Playoffs by the skin of our teeth again.

Who cares if having a better PK the first 60 games of the season would make it so that they don't have to wait until the final weekend of the season to make the playoffs?

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Any way you slice it, Knight isn't better on the PK than Couturier, Raffl, Simmonds, Lindblom, Laughton, Giroux, Vorobyev, even Patrick it surprises me hasn't gotten a look. Knight isn't needed on the PK; using him as one of their top 4 PKers perhaps is more likely counterproductive, even if he does "OK." That the Flyers need to choose the right PKers, who have been here all along, and not search for plugs to PK is nothing new.

This coaching staff has to make their charity cases feel important by giving them these roles.

I miss the days when the Flyers actually had an effective two-way PK.