Predict the Opening Night Roster

[1865]

He benched Ghost for the first year and then he was a mainstay for the second. I have to hope he does the same with Sanheim.

 

[deadhead]

The best way I could explain it from a Flyers point of reference would be guys like TJ Brennan, Will O'Neill, Phil Varone, etc. They have excellent reps at the AHL level, but are generally free of competition to sign for an NHL deal on July 1st.

Those players aren't even replacement level. If they were they'd be on someone's roster for a stretch or two - replacement players tend to replace other replacement players until someone above replacement level can be found.

Knight might be close to replacement level, Folin, Manning, Hagg are replacement level. MacDonald has declined to replacement level.

It's simple, a guy who puts up 0 WAR (or 0 GAR) over a year or two is replacement level.

Now, as I pointed out, some GMs over pay because they are fooled by one good season or are overly optimistic projecting a replacement player's future production. Or an above replacement level player declines due to age or injury.

Most hockey rosters have players with negative GAR, most baseball teams a half dozen players with negative WAR.

 

[CapnZin]

My guess (Basically the entire season lol).

Giroux - Couturier - TK
JVR - Patrick - Voracek
Lindblom - Vorobyev - Simmer
Raffl - Weal - Laughton

Scratches: Leier, Weise, Knight (IR)

Provorov - Ghost
Sanheim - Gudas/Amac
Hagg - Amac/Folin/Gudas

Scratches: Folin/Amac, Morin (LTIR)

Elliot
Neuvirth

PP1:

Giroux - Couturier - JVR
Ghost - Voracek

PP2:

TK - Patrick - Simmer
Provorov - Vorobyev/Sanheim

**PP% 23.8 for 4th best in the league

PK1:
Laughton - Raffl
Provorov - Gudas

PK2:
Vorobyev - Lindblom ***It’s a thought
Hagg - Folin

**PK% 76.55 for 22nd best in the league

BOLD Predictions:
*Morin comes into the lineup when healthy
**Hakstol finds a way to break Lehtera out of jail so he can play.
***Knight replaces Weal, once Weal disappoints.
****Lehtera buys out his own contract with coke money to “continue the operation”.

Bold Point Predictions
Giroux: 97 —> 30+ goals
Voracek: 88 —> 60+ Assists
Couturier: 85 —> 30+ goals
Ghost: 71 —> 25+ goals, 40+ assists
Patrick: 62
JVR: 56
TK: 55
Simmer: 48
Provorov: 46
Lindblom: 41
Vorobyev: 37
Sanheim: 28
Raffl: 24
Laughton: 22
Weal: 18
Gudas: 16
Hagg: 14
Amac: 13
Knight: 11
Folin: 8
Morin: 6
Weise: 6

Elliot: .908 SV% 2.76 GAA
Neuvirth: .918 SV% 2.42 GAA

Final Record: 44 - 27 - 11..... 3rd in Metro.
*Hakstonain loser point reigns supreme!

Playoff Series #1:

PHI 4 - WSH 2

Playoff Series #2

PHI 3 - PIT 4

#25 in draft.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Those players aren't even replacement level. If they were they'd be on someone's roster for a stretch or two - replacement players tend to replace other replacement players until someone above replacement level can be found.

Knight might be close to replacement level, Folin, Manning, Hagg are replacement level. MacDonald has declined to replacement level.

It's simple, a guy who puts up 0 WAR (or 0 GAR) over a year or two is replacement level.

Now, as I pointed out, some GMs over pay because they are fooled by one good season or are overly optimistic projecting a replacement player's future production. Or an above replacement level player declines due to age or injury.

Most hockey rosters have players with negative GAR, most baseball teams a half dozen players with negative WAR.

It's not that your points about roster management are wrong, but replacement level is a specific term that means something in this context. You can't take the end result of the larger math and apply it in the narrowest, most out of context way possible to the front end data.

I do not at all understand your usual "these upgrades would be so minor that they're insiginifcant" stances combined with this one at all.

I specifically avoided naming anyone on the roster because it tends to start flaming. Add Leier or anyone else like that in there that you want.

 

[CapnZin]

It's not that your points about roster management are wrong, but replacement level is a specific term that means something in this context. You can't take the end result of the larger math and apply it in the narrowest, most out of context way possible to the front end data.

I do not at all understand your usual "these upgrades would be so minor that they're insiginifcant" stances combined with this one at all.

I specifically avoided naming anyone on the roster because it tends to start flaming. Add Leier or anyone else like that in there that you want.

I understand the comment about flaming. Although in regards to the post you replied to... you have the right idea and so does Deadhead in a certain context.

The idea of being a replacement isn’t based on WAR or the ability to win games. Players that have the ability to produce at high WAR, (Carter Hutton, Michael Neuvirth, Andrew MacDonald, Dustin Byfugelin, Matt Martin, etc...) is not specific to a replacement category. That’s just merely a stat used to accept the premise of it. Same thing as saying... 20 goals makes you a good goal scorer. Sam Gange tapped that once, but has never been back there.

The idea of a replacement means marginality in differnce. You’re replacing someone at the NHL level with another. That’s literally all it means. It has nothing to do with statistics, but more of an economic measure. Think of a normally distributed bell curve. The far right are your superstars like McDavid and Crosby, middle being your middle six players like Sam Bennett and Paul Byron, while the far/extreme left is your career AHL players and fringe 4th liners like Danick Martel and Michael Haley— these are your replacement level players.

Replacement level has changed considerably in the past 5 years. 5 years ago, Michael Haley would’ve been the definition of a “replacement level” player. Corban Knight right now is the definition of a replacement level player.

Amac, Hagg, Folin, Leier, Manning aren’t really replacement level players since they’re solidified NHL players. The only argument you can make out of that group is Leier, but a roster crunch creates that bias.

Sorry to name names, but it furthers a point I was trying to make.

 

[BrindamoursNose]

Giroux -- Coots -- TK
Lindblom -- Patrick --- Jake
JVR - Vorobyev - Simmonds
Weise - Laughton - Raffl

Provorov - GhostBear
Sanheim-Gudas
Hagg-McDonald

Elliot
Hart

Scratch:
Lehtera
Weal
Folin

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I understand the comment about flaming. Although in regards to the post you replied to... you have the right idea and so does Deadhead in a certain context.

The idea of being a replacement isn’t based on WAR or the ability to win games. Players that have the ability to produce at high WAR, (Carter Hutton, Michael Neuvirth, Andrew MacDonald, Dustin Byfugelin, Matt Martin, etc...) is not specific to a replacement category. That’s just merely a stat used to accept the premise of it. Same thing as saying... 20 goals makes you a good goal scorer. Sam Gange tapped that once, but has never been back there.

The idea of a replacement means marginality in differnce. You’re replacing someone at the NHL level with another. That’s literally all it means. It has nothing to do with statistics, but more of an economic measure. Think of a normally distributed bell curve. The far right are your superstars like McDavid and Crosby, middle being your middle six players like Sam Bennett and Paul Byron, while the far/extreme left is your career AHL players and fringe 4th liners like Danick Martel and Michael Haley— these are your replacement level players.

Replacement level has changed considerably in the past 5 years. 5 years ago, Michael Haley would’ve been the definition of a “replacement level” player. Corban Knight right now is the definition of a replacement level player.

Amac, Hagg, Folin, Leier, Manning aren’t really replacement level players since they’re solidified NHL players. The only argument you can make out of that group is Leier, but a roster crunch creates that bias.

Sorry to name names, but it furthers a point I was trying to make.

Yes, the issue I took was relating to defining a roughly replacement level player being the important distinction, not zeroing out the WAR and using that as a strict definition. I even linked the Fangraphs library definition above.

He snipped out that section from a larger post in response to someone asking "how many replacement level players the numbers say are in the league," which I was trying to explain missed the point.

 

[Curufinwe]

He benched Ghost for the first year and then he was a mainstay for the second. I have to hope he does the same with Sanheim.

Hak benched Ghost in year 2. I think in year 1 and 3 he played every game he was healthy for.

 

[FLYguy3911]

I think Lehtera makes the team because he's a center, unlike Leier or Weise, and the coach obviously trusts him. It's a little odd Weise didn't play yesterday considering he's on the bubble.

 

[johum7]

My guess (Basically the entire season lol).

Giroux - Couturier - TK
JVR - Patrick - Voracek
Lindblom - Vorobyev - Simmer
Raffl - Weal - Laughton

Scratches: Leier, Weise, Knight (IR)

Provorov - Ghost
Sanheim - Gudas/Amac
Hagg - Amac/Folin/Gudas

Scratches: Folin/Amac, Morin (LTIR)

Elliot
Neuvirth

PP1:

Giroux - Couturier - JVR
Ghost - Voracek

PP2:

TK - Patrick - Simmer
Provorov - Vorobyev/Sanheim

**PP% 23.8 for 4th best in the league

PK1:
Laughton - Raffl
Provorov - Gudas

PK2:
Vorobyev - Lindblom ***It’s a thought
Hagg - Folin

**PK% 76.55 for 22nd best in the league

BOLD Predictions:
*Morin comes into the lineup when healthy
**Hakstol finds a way to break Lehtera out of jail so he can play.
***Knight replaces Weal, once Weal disappoints.
****Lehtera buys out his own contract with coke money to “continue the operation”.

Bold Point Predictions
Giroux: 97 —> 30+ goals
Voracek: 88 —> 60+ Assists
Couturier: 85 —> 30+ goals
Ghost: 71 —> 25+ goals, 40+ assists
Patrick: 62
JVR: 56
TK: 55
Simmer: 48
Provorov: 46
Lindblom: 41
Vorobyev: 37
Sanheim: 28
Raffl: 24
Laughton: 22
Weal: 18
Gudas: 16
Hagg: 14
Amac: 13
Knight: 11
Folin: 8
Morin: 6
Weise: 6

Elliot: .908 SV% 2.76 GAA
Neuvirth: .918 SV% 2.42 GAA

Final Record: 44 - 27 - 11..... 3rd in Metro.
*Hakstonain loser point reigns supreme!

Playoff Series #1:

PHI 4 - WSH 2

Playoff Series #2

PHI 3 - PIT 4

#25 in draft.

Then we trade pick 25, Lehtera and all his coke to Colorado for the Ottawa pick

 

[deadhead]

It's not that your points about roster management are wrong, but replacement level is a specific term that means something in this context. You can't take the end result of the larger math and apply it in the narrowest, most out of context way possible to the front end data.

I do not at all understand your usual "these upgrades would be so minor that they're insiginifcant" stances combined with this one at all.

I specifically avoided naming anyone on the roster because it tends to start flaming. Add Leier or anyone else like that in there that you want.

Replacement players are players who are available at low cost, not AHL players that no one wants (or they'd be signed as replacement players). Folin is a good example. Manning should have been signed to a similar deal as Hagg, but someone has overestimated his value. Knight is close to replacement, he did make a NHL roster and might have stayed if not for injury. McDonald was a replacement player for a couple years then became an AHL "lifer." Has any team tried to sign or claim Brennan?

Now every NHL player is replacement level at some point in the beginning and end of their career - even stars - because all players in general have the same trajectory, better players just rise above replacement earlier in their career (maybe as junior hockey players) and fall to that level later in their careers. Due to reputation, top players often stay in the league until they're below replacement (see Kimmo's last season).

Marginal players tend to rise to replacement level in their prime years and spend a few years there before disappearing, VdV is a good example. He was below average at ES, above average on the PK and basically hung around replacement level from 23-29. He played a few games for Edmonton for 3 years and Philly for 1 before winning a starting job for 3 years, then was gone.

 

[CapnZin]

Then we trade pick 25, Lehtera and all his coke to Colorado for the Ottawa pick

Wouldn’t that make the Flyers part of Lehtera coke ring?

 

[MacDonald4MVP]

Wow that first page. So many folks penciled Knight as a 4C. How's it working for you?

 

[Hiesenberg]

Giroux/Couts/TK
JVR/Patrick/Voracek
Lindblom/Vorobyov/Simmonds
Laughton/Weal/Raffl
Lehtera/Weise - Extra

Provy/Ghost
MacDonald/Sanheim
Hagg/Gudas
Folin - Extra

Elliott
Stolarz

I'll find out today how close I am....but damn near spot on.

It just shows how predictable Hextall/Hakstol are.

 

[Rebels57]

Wow that first page. So many folks penciled Knight as a 4C. How's it working for you?

He might have been had he not gotten injured.

 

[deadhead]

Think of a normally distributed bell curve. The far right are your superstars like McDavid and Crosby, middle being your middle six players like Sam Bennett and Paul Byron, while the far/extreme left is your career AHL players and fringe 4th liners like Danick Martel and Michael Haley— these are your replacement level players.

The bell curve analogy is wrong, not because it's the wrong distribution (I haven't seen any data on the distribution of athletic talent and skill) but because pro athletes are all on the long tail to the right of the distribution, and so far out it's irrelevant what the distribution actually is.

That is, the top players are way out at the end of the tail, and most players are toward the fatter portion of the tail, up to a hypothetical point which would be "replacement level." To the left of replacement level are the AHL "lifers" and ECHL players and all the kids in college and juniors with no NHL future. So there are far more players who are replacement level or just below (since actual performance varies around their core value) than are solid NHL starters. Once all the solid starters have jobs, the remaining spots are filled with replacement players each year in a NHL version of "musical chairs."

Now what complicates this picture is that players rise up to solid starter or even allpro, but eventually decline to replacement level or below, so the names are constantly changing.

 

[deadhead]

Wow that first page. So many folks penciled Knight as a 4C. How's it working for you?

He's injured or he'd probably have that job with Weal as the 13th player.

It just shows how predictable Hextall/Hakstol are.

Or just how set most spots are.
The only decision that required thought was whether to start Myers in Philadelphia or LHV.
Vorobyev won a job, the other prospects didn't show enough, including NAK.

The Myers decision was about Myers, not Hagg/Folin/MacDonald.
Hextall saw Sanheim struggle last year, so why rush Myers when he's not a slam dunk?

I don't think Hextall wants to keep Weise or Lehtera. But he stuck with them, either here or LHV.
He still doesn't know if Weal/Leier/Hagg are NHL starters, but he's not giving them away if he can get assets for them.
Gudas and MacDonald have to play their way off the island until young replacements are ready.
Folin is a 7th D-man, cheap and expendable.

 

[Hiesenberg]

He's injured or he'd probably have that job with Weal as the 13th player.



Or just how set most spots are.
The only decision that required thought was whether to start Myers in Philadelphia or LHV.
Vorobyev won a job, the other prospects didn't show enough, including NAK.

The Myers decision was about Myers, not Hagg/Folin/MacDonald.
Hextall saw Sanheim struggle last year, so why rush Myers when he's not a slam dunk?

I don't think Hextall wants to keep Weise or Lehtera. But he stuck with them, either here or LHV.
He still doesn't know if Weal/Leier/Hagg are NHL starters, but he's not giving them away if he can get assets for them.
Gudas and MacDonald have to play their way off the island until young replacements are ready.
Folin is a 7th D-man, cheap and expendable.

Hextall could get rid of those guys if he wanted too.

 

[deadhead]

No one is going to take Lehtera or Weise unless you throw in draft picks, and why do that when you can just waive them and eat the salary?

Hagg/Leier/Weal are on the edge of the roster, but you'd just be replacing them with another replacement level player at this point, i.e. Folin. They have a limited time to prove themselves, before they're replaced by the next wave.

Why would any GM dump players before the replacements are in place?
Myers went down b/c he wasn't ready and Hextall wants him to get big minutes in LHV to accelerate his development.
NAK showed he wasn't ready in camp (did he look better than Leier or Weal? Nope).
Friedman showed improvement, but right now is he an upgrade over Hagg or Folin?

You can always waive these guys and bring up prospects, but if you start the season by waiving them, and your prospects falter, what then?

 

[johum7]

Wouldn’t that make the Flyers part of Lehtera coke ring?

I don’t think so. I’d have to ask Lehtera to get confirmation tho

 

[Hiesenberg]

Giroux/Couts/TK
JVR/Patrick/Voracek
Lindblom/Vorobyov/Simmonds
Laughton/Weal/Raffl
Lehtera/Weise - Extra

Provy/Ghost
MacDonald/Sanheim
Hagg/Gudas
Folin - Extra

Elliott
Stolarz

So close...Hextall threw us a curve and waived an extra forward....Lets see if Weise comes back in.

 

[MacDonald4MVP]

OMG they really are on board with Knight as 4c.

 

[FLYguy3911]

OMG they really are on board with Knight as 4c.

He's going to save the PK along with Folin.

 

[GKJ]

Knight making the team isn’t really shocking, they were talking about him last year as well. He’s more cost-effective than Weise or Lehtera, unfortunately only one of those players was waived.

 

[FLYguy3911]

It's shocking considering he's 28 and has already been in the organization for 2 years and didn't get a sniff during those years.