YZ77
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- Aug 13, 2010
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Predict the Opening Night Roster
- Thread starter Flyers Faithful
- Start date
Yeah they don't have much choice now with how short handed they are. They cant risk losing Stolarz on waivers even if it is a remote chance. Plus it would be good for Hart to play a lot in the AHL and they can bring him up whenever they want.
JojoTheWhale
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Lindberg
Bennyflyers16 get a life
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This is the first time in a long time I'm happy with the roster forward wise. Not really a terrible player in the top 12.
Perhaps Hextall might try an acquire another NHL defensemen at some point? He's got the prospects, draft picks, and etc. to make it happen if something is out there at some point.
Perhaps Hextall might try an acquire another NHL defensemen at some point? He's got the prospects, draft picks, and etc. to make it happen if something is out there at some point.
deadhead
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- Feb 26, 2014
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Thiing was, MacDonald wasn't bad down the stretch last year:
43 games 5-13 18, though overall he's basically a replacement level (i.e. 3rd pair) defenseman
Different stats have different results, Goals above replacement (ES):
2017-18:
Provorov 7.3 (SH 0.9)
Ghost 5.9
Sanheim 2.7
Gudas 2.0 (SH 3.0)
Hagg 1.5 (SH -0.6)
MacDonald 0.2 (SH 0.7)
Manning -0.7 (SH -0.6)
2016-17
Gudas 12.2 (SH 1.1)
Provorov 1.5 (SH 2.1)
MacDonald -0.6 (SH -0.1)
Manning -4.4 (SH 1.2)
Ghost -9.5
2015-16
Ghost 6.7
MacDonald 5.3 (SH 0.4)
Gudas 1.7 (SH -0.6)
Manning -6.6 (SH -0.2)
Evolving-Hockey
43 games 5-13 18, though overall he's basically a replacement level (i.e. 3rd pair) defenseman
Different stats have different results, Goals above replacement (ES):
2017-18:
Provorov 7.3 (SH 0.9)
Ghost 5.9
Sanheim 2.7
Gudas 2.0 (SH 3.0)
Hagg 1.5 (SH -0.6)
MacDonald 0.2 (SH 0.7)
Manning -0.7 (SH -0.6)
2016-17
Gudas 12.2 (SH 1.1)
Provorov 1.5 (SH 2.1)
MacDonald -0.6 (SH -0.1)
Manning -4.4 (SH 1.2)
Ghost -9.5
2015-16
Ghost 6.7
MacDonald 5.3 (SH 0.4)
Gudas 1.7 (SH -0.6)
Manning -6.6 (SH -0.2)
Evolving-Hockey
deadhead
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Forwards:
Even strength last three years:
Couts 18.5 / 10.6 / 8.8
Giroux 14.3 / 0.3 / 1.6
TK 10.3 / 3.1
Raffl 4.7 / -3.3 / 7.0
Voracek 3.9 / -3.3 / 6.0
Weal 3.4 / 4.5
Lindblom 1.6
Patrick 0.4
Laughton -0.5 / na / 1.2
Leier -0.6
Lehtera -1.0 / -1.5 / 10.4
Read -2.0 / 1.7 / -1.5
Filppula -3.5 / 2.1 TB, -0.6 PHL / -2.0
Simmonds -4.5 / -1.1 / 7.2
Weise -4.7 / 4.8 / 4.1 Mon, 2.5 Chi
JVR 8.3 / 8.1 / 6.8
Short-handed
Giroux 2.1 / na / -1.1
Simmonds 1.9 / 1.3
Laughton 1.2 / na / -0.5
Raffl 0.6
Couts 0.3 / 0.4 / 0.2
Lehtera -0.1 / -0.6 / 0.8
Leier -0.7
Filppula -3.1 / -0.1 TB / -0.4
Thoughts - these are just one set of numbers, but they explain some things
1) Weise wasn't an awful decision, he was coming off a solid season, right age, brought size and a little scoring to the bottom six, I think he's in better shape this year and Ron wants to see if he has anything left to offer
2) Filppula was a stopgap addition, he had been meh in TB, but not awful and added depth, then he fell off the cliff last year
3) Lehtera really declined in 2016-17, but as a salary dump Ron probably thought maybe you can get a little bounceback
4) Couts has been underrated by Flyer fans for a long time, Voracek overrated
5) Simmons' decline is scary, though he's a solid SH and PP performer, keep him off the ice at ES
6) JVR's consistency bodes well for his performance here
7) When Raffl is healthy, he's very valuable, when he can't skate, he can't do anything else
Other points, VdV and PEB were negative ES players but positive SH players, that's what kept them around
B Schenn was nothing special here, which is why he's in St Louis, his primary value was on the PP.
Rinaldo was bad, how did Ron get a 3rd rd pick for him?
Even strength last three years:
Couts 18.5 / 10.6 / 8.8
Giroux 14.3 / 0.3 / 1.6
TK 10.3 / 3.1
Raffl 4.7 / -3.3 / 7.0
Voracek 3.9 / -3.3 / 6.0
Weal 3.4 / 4.5
Lindblom 1.6
Patrick 0.4
Laughton -0.5 / na / 1.2
Leier -0.6
Lehtera -1.0 / -1.5 / 10.4
Read -2.0 / 1.7 / -1.5
Filppula -3.5 / 2.1 TB, -0.6 PHL / -2.0
Simmonds -4.5 / -1.1 / 7.2
Weise -4.7 / 4.8 / 4.1 Mon, 2.5 Chi
JVR 8.3 / 8.1 / 6.8
Short-handed
Giroux 2.1 / na / -1.1
Simmonds 1.9 / 1.3
Laughton 1.2 / na / -0.5
Raffl 0.6
Couts 0.3 / 0.4 / 0.2
Lehtera -0.1 / -0.6 / 0.8
Leier -0.7
Filppula -3.1 / -0.1 TB / -0.4
Thoughts - these are just one set of numbers, but they explain some things
1) Weise wasn't an awful decision, he was coming off a solid season, right age, brought size and a little scoring to the bottom six, I think he's in better shape this year and Ron wants to see if he has anything left to offer
2) Filppula was a stopgap addition, he had been meh in TB, but not awful and added depth, then he fell off the cliff last year
3) Lehtera really declined in 2016-17, but as a salary dump Ron probably thought maybe you can get a little bounceback
4) Couts has been underrated by Flyer fans for a long time, Voracek overrated
5) Simmons' decline is scary, though he's a solid SH and PP performer, keep him off the ice at ES
6) JVR's consistency bodes well for his performance here
7) When Raffl is healthy, he's very valuable, when he can't skate, he can't do anything else
Other points, VdV and PEB were negative ES players but positive SH players, that's what kept them around
B Schenn was nothing special here, which is why he's in St Louis, his primary value was on the PP.
Rinaldo was bad, how did Ron get a 3rd rd pick for him?
YZ77
Registered User
- Aug 13, 2010
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Better yet...don't trade for a LHD. Rather, call up Myers and both can play in the NHL.
deadhead
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- Feb 26, 2014
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Gudas can be a top 4 guy if he gets his mojo back, Sanheim if he just puts it together.
Morin will back by March or so, and if Myers picks up his game he'll be up by spring.
So if you're trading for a D-man:
1) need to get rid of one in the deal
2) we have bodies, we would need a significant upgrade and not just another veteran 3rd pair guy
3) we have help on the way, so no need to overpay
Morin will back by March or so, and if Myers picks up his game he'll be up by spring.
So if you're trading for a D-man:
1) need to get rid of one in the deal
2) we have bodies, we would need a significant upgrade and not just another veteran 3rd pair guy
3) we have help on the way, so no need to overpay
Curufinwe
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- Feb 28, 2013
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deadhead
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I doubt Myers makes the opening roster, if he's not ready for top four duty he should be in LHV playing 20+ minutes a night.
But it gives him a taste of "real" NHL hockey and should motivate him to work on his game.
The opening roster, and the March 1 roster could be very different, this year the Flyers will have players in LHV who could push for jobs by springtime, not just marginal scrubs (MV, Alt, etc.) who are just fill-ins.
But it gives him a taste of "real" NHL hockey and should motivate him to work on his game.
The opening roster, and the March 1 roster could be very different, this year the Flyers will have players in LHV who could push for jobs by springtime, not just marginal scrubs (MV, Alt, etc.) who are just fill-ins.
JojoTheWhale
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deadhead
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The bottom of every team's roster is composed of replacement level players. Which means for most teams, your 3rd pair defensemen and 4th line are replacement level players (same in baseball, where almost every team has a starter or two, some bench players, a 5th and maybe 4th starter nd some middle RPs with negative WAR).
The distribution of professional level athletes/players is the end of a long tail of a distribution (doesn't really matter what the actual distribution is), there are far more replacement level or close to that level than guys who are well above replacement level.
Since actual performance year to year is stochastic (i.e. varies in both directions from the underlying player value), replacement players will be positive some years and negative other years - the trick for a GM is to understand when a replacement player has a good year, he's still replacement player value and not be fooled.
And just because replacement level players are easily obtained, their value to your team will be less than replacement level on average since they're new to your schemes and aren't necessarily good fits (that's a "trial and error" process). So in general, better to stick with the devil you know and keep your replacement level players if they're paid close to minimum wage until you can replace them with players who are legitimately (not randomly) above replacement value.
Which is why "buy low" makes sense at the back of the roster, if you obtain a number of marginal players coming off down years, assuming it's not due to age or injuries that have a permanent impact, some can be expected to rebound the next year - whereas as we saw with Weise and MacDonald, buying high and overpaying can leave you high and dry.
The distribution of professional level athletes/players is the end of a long tail of a distribution (doesn't really matter what the actual distribution is), there are far more replacement level or close to that level than guys who are well above replacement level.
Since actual performance year to year is stochastic (i.e. varies in both directions from the underlying player value), replacement players will be positive some years and negative other years - the trick for a GM is to understand when a replacement player has a good year, he's still replacement player value and not be fooled.
And just because replacement level players are easily obtained, their value to your team will be less than replacement level on average since they're new to your schemes and aren't necessarily good fits (that's a "trial and error" process). So in general, better to stick with the devil you know and keep your replacement level players if they're paid close to minimum wage until you can replace them with players who are legitimately (not randomly) above replacement value.
Which is why "buy low" makes sense at the back of the roster, if you obtain a number of marginal players coming off down years, assuming it's not due to age or injuries that have a permanent impact, some can be expected to rebound the next year - whereas as we saw with Weise and MacDonald, buying high and overpaying can leave you high and dry.
1865
Alpha Couturier
Really hard to predict, but this is what I hope for.
Giroux - Couturier - Konecny
JVR - Patrick - Voracek
Lindblom - Vorobyev - Simmonds
Raffl - Laughton - Leier
Weal
Provorov – Ghost
Hägg – MacDonald
Sanheim – Gudas
Folin
Elliott
Stolarz
Waive Weise and Lehtera. Send Myers, Hart and Friedman down for as long as they need.
Giroux - Couturier - Konecny
JVR - Patrick - Voracek
Lindblom - Vorobyev - Simmonds
Raffl - Laughton - Leier
Weal
Provorov – Ghost
Hägg – MacDonald
Sanheim – Gudas
Folin
Elliott
Stolarz
Waive Weise and Lehtera. Send Myers, Hart and Friedman down for as long as they need.
Final prediction for Thursday:
Giroux-Couturier-Simmonds
JVR-Patrick-Voracek
Raffl-Lethera-Konecny
Lindblom-Vorobyov-Laughton
Provorov-Ghost
Amac-Gudas
Hagg-Frolin
Elliott
I think he pulls the same shit as last year going with a veteran line up to start. Sanheim gets in eventually. TK moves up eventually.
Giroux-Couturier-Simmonds
JVR-Patrick-Voracek
Raffl-Lethera-Konecny
Lindblom-Vorobyov-Laughton
Provorov-Ghost
Amac-Gudas
Hagg-Frolin
Elliott
I think he pulls the same shit as last year going with a veteran line up to start. Sanheim gets in eventually. TK moves up eventually.
How many replacement level players does this SaberMetrics imply at each position? 386 dee-men play regularly in the NHL...
tictactoe
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- Jan 15, 2017
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It would be nice if Hak would bench MacDonald... Maybe it would send message to Gudas, Lehtera... at the same time sending message to young player s that anything possible. it is wide open for grabbing. We cannot bench all "veterans". Weal should not be on this team.
Giroux Couturier Konecny
JVR Patrick Voracek
Lindblom Vorobyev Simmonds
Raffl Lehtera Laughton
Lier
Provorov Gostisbehere
Gudas ?????
Saheim Hagg
Folin
Elliott
Hart (maybe and if he is AHL fine by me)
Giroux Couturier Konecny
JVR Patrick Voracek
Lindblom Vorobyev Simmonds
Raffl Lehtera Laughton
Lier
Provorov Gostisbehere
Gudas ?????
Saheim Hagg
Folin
Elliott
Hart (maybe and if he is AHL fine by me)
bennysflyers16
Registered User
- Jan 26, 2004
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Too easy and predictable with the twins at the helm
G Couts TK
Oskar NP Jake
JVR Pimp Simmer
Laughts Torgo Raffl
Leier Weise
Provy Ghost
Farmer Gudas
Hogg Folin
Sanheim
Elliot
Stolie
My team would be top 9 same
Raffl Laughts Leier
Torgo Weise
Provy Ghost
Sanheim Gudas
Farmer Folin
Haag
Elliot
Stolie
Note Myers should be a lock, but Farmer , Folin Hogg had insane camps and he couldn't beat them.
G Couts TK
Oskar NP Jake
JVR Pimp Simmer
Laughts Torgo Raffl
Leier Weise
Provy Ghost
Farmer Gudas
Hogg Folin
Sanheim
Elliot
Stolie
My team would be top 9 same
Raffl Laughts Leier
Torgo Weise
Provy Ghost
Sanheim Gudas
Farmer Folin
Haag
Elliot
Stolie
Note Myers should be a lock, but Farmer , Folin Hogg had insane camps and he couldn't beat them.
JojoTheWhale
CORN BOY
- May 22, 2008
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It doesn't really work like that. There's no set number. It's just a baseline for assigning value to on ice performance. Some teams will have those types on their 3rd (or 2nd or in an extreme case like Ottawa maybe their 1st) pairing, some won't have to ice any at all.
The best way I could explain it from a Flyers point of reference would be guys like TJ Brennan, Will O'Neill, Phil Varone, etc. They have excellent reps at the AHL level, but are generally free of competition to sign for an NHL deal on July 1st.
Magua
Entirely Palatable Product
I don't think TK is not on the PP. And not sat for Lindblom. They can make it work. I do agree Vorobyev should get a shot on PP2 though given the handedness situation and his passing. He can actually QB a half-wall and slow it down. I mean my ideal PP2 is this: Konecny, Patrick, Vorobyev, Simmonds/JVR, Sanheim. There's positional versatility there. But those are the best 5 to me in a 4FWD-1D unit. I feel bad about leaving off Lindblom; even Provorov, though it will in reality be Sanheim collecting dust.
Just goes to show why Simmonds locking down a PP spot for another contract is #bad. I'm really eager to see who gets net front PP1 duties though. Wouldn't shock me to see JVR-Simmonds rotate but still......it'll be a big clue.
Giroux — Couturier — Konecny
Lindblom — Patrick — Voracek
Van Reimsdyk — Vorobyev — Simmonds
Laughton — Lehtera — Raffl
(Weal/Leier)
Provorov — Gostisbehere
Sanheim — Folin
Hagg — Gudas
(Macdonald)
Elliott
Hart
Edit* i would like to see Weal get more of a shot. He’s got lots of skill.
I also would love to see Myers or Friedman get some ice time.
Lindblom — Patrick — Voracek
Van Reimsdyk — Vorobyev — Simmonds
Laughton — Lehtera — Raffl
(Weal/Leier)
Provorov — Gostisbehere
Sanheim — Folin
Hagg — Gudas
(Macdonald)
Elliott
Hart
Edit* i would like to see Weal get more of a shot. He’s got lots of skill.
I also would love to see Myers or Friedman get some ice time.
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