Nolan11
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Player Discussion: Martin Jones
- Thread starter Fistfullofbeer
- Start date
WSS11
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Patty Ice
Straight to the Banc
Jargon
Registered User
I've always loved Nabby as a player and I'm proud to see that he's making a marked improvement on the goalies. I hope it sticks and I hope he's as good as he's appearing to be -- it'd be nice to have Strelow-like goalie development again.
The Nemesis
Semper Tyrannus
It could also be Westsyde Secondary School in Kamloops, BC.
I mean, they spell their name with a "y", so you know they're edgy and cool and the kind of thing people would want to rep.
Nolan11
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I agree with all you are saying. Really hope Nabby is our next Strelow goalie whisperer.... At this point, I'm hoping Caps win so that we get the 3rd this year, and use it on the best goalie prospect available. (Hoping we don't need to use a 2nd on a goalie)
Dicdonya
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Not trying to say Nabby has not helped Jones, however I think the team and coaching have had a bigger impact thus far.
Under Deboer this year, Dell and Jones were facing 31 and 33 percent of shots as high danger shots. That is very high compared to most other starting goaltenders, who usually were closer to about 25%.
Under Boughner, Dell has not seen a ton of improvement from that area, still facing 30% of his shots as HD. His stats are also worse that Jones in that time, which would make sense given that. However kudos to him and Nabby for getting better results anyways.
Jones though has only been facing 23% of his shots as HD. That is a massive decrease from before, and IMO currently the biggest reason he is looking calm, confident, and better in net. If our team can keep playing defense like that in front of Jones, I have no doubt Jones will be a solid-to-great goalie for us moving forward.
I just pray that those numbers are not some anomaly, and instead are being caused by a concerted effort by our players and coach to limit HD chances against, even if Jones faces a few more low or medium danger shots overall. I also pray that with a healthy roster next year, they do not revert back to playing offensive hockey at the expense of defense, just because we have more skill back in the lineup.
Under Deboer this year, Dell and Jones were facing 31 and 33 percent of shots as high danger shots. That is very high compared to most other starting goaltenders, who usually were closer to about 25%.
Under Boughner, Dell has not seen a ton of improvement from that area, still facing 30% of his shots as HD. His stats are also worse that Jones in that time, which would make sense given that. However kudos to him and Nabby for getting better results anyways.
Jones though has only been facing 23% of his shots as HD. That is a massive decrease from before, and IMO currently the biggest reason he is looking calm, confident, and better in net. If our team can keep playing defense like that in front of Jones, I have no doubt Jones will be a solid-to-great goalie for us moving forward.
I just pray that those numbers are not some anomaly, and instead are being caused by a concerted effort by our players and coach to limit HD chances against, even if Jones faces a few more low or medium danger shots overall. I also pray that with a healthy roster next year, they do not revert back to playing offensive hockey at the expense of defense, just because we have more skill back in the lineup.
WSS11
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greasysnapper
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Weird how that happened right around the time Karlsson went down.
It's like team defense beats out a boat show bandit.
OrrNumber4
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Weird how that happened right around the time Karlsson went down.
It's like team defense beats out a boat show bandit.
What are Dell/Jones' numbers with or without Karlsson on the ice?
I don't think BB's system would allow them to revert like that. He's so far shown he's not shy about benching even stars so I think he just needs a few more legit NHLers and he could make some noise next season. Jones for his part is making far more highlight reel saves lately.
Dicdonya
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@OrrNumber4
[TBODY]
[/TBODY]
[TBODY]
[/TBODY]**I did leave the 5-6 games Karlsson did play after returning from his injury in this figure, so the numbers are bound to be off to some degree. If someone cares enough to find out what that degree is, be my guest.
***This is only a three game sample size, I put it here only because the data was available while doing this period for Jones, but it is far too small to base even the slightest assumptions from.
I'm bored at work so here you go. I did not do this to attempt to argue for or against the idea that Jones/Dell started playing better/worse without Karlsson, mainly because I think the sample size is far too small this year to really make even loose comparisons with, but the data is at least here if someone wants to debate it.
My only opinion on the matter in regards to Karlsson, is that I think IF he impacts our goalies significantly, it is not because of his play specifically, but instead that Deboer attempted to implement some sort of system he thought would reap the benefits of Karlsson, and Burns, abilities to generate lots of offense, but the byproduct was absolutely shit defense.
Also while I am bored at work, I decided to illustrate just how much I think Deboer, and not our players, were the direct cause of Jones/Dell becoming absolute shit goalies for a time, here are the numbers for Jones and Dell under Deboer before the system change in 2017-18 and after, including their running total under Boughner this year as well. I am basing the time for the system change off of @JoeThorntonsRooster thread he made, so if someone wants to debate the validity of that system change, or when they think it occurred, I am not the one to ask, even though I do agree with him that there was a change, and that it happened loosely around the time he thinks it did which is after the Vegas game 11/24/2017.
[TBODY]
[/TBODY]IMO the difference is clear. Jones was a good to slightly above average goalie, and turned into a sieve after the change. Then reverted right back to being a good to slightly above average goalie since Boughner took over.
Dell was a stud backup, in fact he was so good that everyone slobbering over Georgiev was really confusing me, because we already have a guy who performed way better as a backup on our team, so there was no reason to assume he could come in and do any better than Dell.
Georgiev this year in 32 games, basically the same sample as Dell before the system change, has .917 sv% 2.67 GAA at 5v5, or worse than current Dell(under Boughner), and WAY worse than younger backup Dell.
Lastly, I think despite everyone still having a very bad taste in their mouth after the last few years, I think that if the numbers we are seeing from Dell and Jones hold up through the rest of the year, its time to stop worrying about our goalies. We have other areas that need improving, and those two are showing they are both capable of still being good goalies in this league, and thus we do not need to be spending assets to try and trade Jones, or trade for a different goalie. I still would be fine signing a more proven backup, on the cheap, but Jones IMO still has the ability to be a good starter, he just needed to get out from behind a terrible system that did not suit his strengths one bit.
| MARTIN JONES | SV% | GAA | HDSA/60 | HDSV% | XGA/60 | |
| 2017-18 All Situations | .915 | 2.55 | 8.68 | .820 | 2.53 | |
| at 5v5 | .915 | 2.51 | 8.21 | .816 | 2.28 | |
| 2018-19 w/Karlsson All Situations | .903 | 2.75 | 9.09 | .824 | 2.53 | |
| at 5v5 | .900 | 2.72 | 8.24 | .804 | 2.19 | |
| 2018-19 w/out Karlsson All Situations** | .888 | 3.22 | 8.45 | .780 | 2.56 | |
| at 5v5 | .895 | 2.85 | 8.05 | .788 | 2.19 | |
| 2019-20- w/Karlsson and Deboer All Situations | .888 | 3.34 | 9.59 | .834 | 2.88 | |
| at 5v5 | .875 | 3.49 | 8.99 | .806 | 2.46 | |
| 2019-20 w/Karlsson and Boughner All Situations | .892 | 3.02 | 7.06 | .833 | 2.26 | |
| at 5v5 | .919 | 2.24 | 7.12 | .857 | 1.98 | |
| 2019-20 w/out Karlsson w/Boughner All Situations | .947 | 1.50 | 6.34 | .842 | 2.17 | |
| at 5v5 | .939 | 1.69 | 5.93 | .786 | 1.89 |
| AARON DELL | SV% | GAA | HDSA/60 | HDSV% | XGA/60 | |
| 2017-18 All Situations | .913 | 2.64 | 9.22 | .808 | 2.51 | |
| at 5v5 | .919 | 2.38 | 8.59 | .814 | 2.23 | |
| 2018-19 w/Karlsson All Situations | .891 | 3.09 | 8.26 | .772 | 2.49 | |
| at 5v5 | .903 | 2.68 | 7.95 | .779 | 2.16 | |
| 2018-19 w/out Karlsson All Situations** | .874 | 3.35 | 7.25 | .731 | 2.38 | |
| at 5v5 | .903 | 2.61 | 7.66 | .793 | 2.15 | |
| 2019-20 w/Karlsson and Deboer All Situations | .893 | 3.32 | 8.48 | .797 | 2.66 | |
| at 5v5 | .880 | 3.50 | 8.90 | .803 | 2.36 | |
| 2019-20 w/Karlsson and Boughner All Situations | .919 | 2.60 | 10.18 | .831 | 2.77 | |
| at 5v5 | .931 | 2.12 | 9.04 | .859 | 2.44 | |
| 2019-20 w/out Karlsson w/Boughner All Situations*** | .874 | 3.76 | 9.58 | .714 | 2.73 | |
| at 5v5 | .855 | 4.31 | 8.18 | .632 | 2.45 |
***This is only a three game sample size, I put it here only because the data was available while doing this period for Jones, but it is far too small to base even the slightest assumptions from.
I'm bored at work so here you go. I did not do this to attempt to argue for or against the idea that Jones/Dell started playing better/worse without Karlsson, mainly because I think the sample size is far too small this year to really make even loose comparisons with, but the data is at least here if someone wants to debate it.
My only opinion on the matter in regards to Karlsson, is that I think IF he impacts our goalies significantly, it is not because of his play specifically, but instead that Deboer attempted to implement some sort of system he thought would reap the benefits of Karlsson, and Burns, abilities to generate lots of offense, but the byproduct was absolutely shit defense.
Also while I am bored at work, I decided to illustrate just how much I think Deboer, and not our players, were the direct cause of Jones/Dell becoming absolute shit goalies for a time, here are the numbers for Jones and Dell under Deboer before the system change in 2017-18 and after, including their running total under Boughner this year as well. I am basing the time for the system change off of @JoeThorntonsRooster thread he made, so if someone wants to debate the validity of that system change, or when they think it occurred, I am not the one to ask, even though I do agree with him that there was a change, and that it happened loosely around the time he thinks it did which is after the Vegas game 11/24/2017.
| Games | SV% | GAA | HDSA/60 | HDSV% | XGA/60 | ||
| Before- All Situations | JONES | 146 | .916 | 2.32 | 7.85 | .840 | 2.36 |
| 5v5 | .921 | 2.09 | 7.34 | .845 | 2.04 | ||
| After All Situations | 133 | .900 | 2.94 | 8.90 | .812 | 2.61 | |
| 5v5 | .898 | 2.90 | 8.37 | .798 | 2.30 | ||
| Under Boughner All | 12 | .920 | 2.26 | 6.7 | .838 | 2.21 | |
| 5v5 | .929 | 1.97 | 6.54 | .825 | 1.94 | ||
| Before- All | DELL | 28 | .928 | 2.06 | 7.86 | .815 | 2.38 |
| 5v5 | .942 | 1.64 | 7.41 | .851 | 2.15 | ||
| After- All | 57 | .897 | 3.05 | 8.58 | .785 | 2.54 | |
| 5v5 | .906 | 2.69 | 8.25 | .804 | 2.23 | ||
| Under Boughner- All | 20 | .913 | 2.77 | 10.09 | .815 | 2.77 | |
| 5v5 | .920 | 2.43 | 8.92 | .830 | 2.44 |
Dell was a stud backup, in fact he was so good that everyone slobbering over Georgiev was really confusing me, because we already have a guy who performed way better as a backup on our team, so there was no reason to assume he could come in and do any better than Dell.
Georgiev this year in 32 games, basically the same sample as Dell before the system change, has .917 sv% 2.67 GAA at 5v5, or worse than current Dell(under Boughner), and WAY worse than younger backup Dell.
Lastly, I think despite everyone still having a very bad taste in their mouth after the last few years, I think that if the numbers we are seeing from Dell and Jones hold up through the rest of the year, its time to stop worrying about our goalies. We have other areas that need improving, and those two are showing they are both capable of still being good goalies in this league, and thus we do not need to be spending assets to try and trade Jones, or trade for a different goalie. I still would be fine signing a more proven backup, on the cheap, but Jones IMO still has the ability to be a good starter, he just needed to get out from behind a terrible system that did not suit his strengths one bit.
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tahoesharksfan
Old-Timer
This is amazing. For what it's worth, I remember reading all that JTR data about the system change and remember thinking he was spot on about when and it's effect on the teams stats.
At that level, confidence is everything.
hotcabbagesoup
why u guys want Celebrini, he played like a weenie
The real reason for Jones' resurgence: the trade of Dillon.
Clearly Jones was intimidated by Dillon as shown by his sheepish expression here. He could never curl as much as Dillon and that kills your confidence. Chicks dig the big guns but when you have arms like Dillon has, how can one compete?
Jones himself has said he feels more comfortable in this style of defense and that he's seeing the puck better.
one2gamble
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sharski
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does jones even liftThe real reason for Jones' resurgence: the trade of Dillon.
Clearly Jones was intimidated by Dillon as shown by his sheepish expression here. He could never curl as much as Dillon and that kills your confidence. Chicks dig the big guns but when you have arms like Dillon has, how can one compete?
The Nemesis
Semper Tyrannus
We already know he doesn't lift his glove hand.
The Ice Hockey Dude
Ack! Thbbft!
The Ice Hockey Dude
Ack! Thbbft!
So i quickly went through Jones game log this season and noticed that he starts a decent streak
(better starts/lower GA) in situations where he's had 3-4 days off. Any of you advanced stat dudes out
there know how to analyze this?
(better starts/lower GA) in situations where he's had 3-4 days off. Any of you advanced stat dudes out
there know how to analyze this?
The Ice Hockey Dude
Ack! Thbbft!
Allot of goalies don't lift for overall strength the way skaters do, e.g. Dillion in the pic.
Why? There is some believe that muscle mass can slow reflexes. Objectively
goalies train differently from skaters, lets leave it at that. Think flexibility,
lower body strength, hand/foot coordination, etc.
TomasHertlsRooster
Don’t say eye test when you mean points
(All that you need to know about "Expected goals against per goal against" and "Delta Fenwick save percentage" are that both of them are better than raw SV% because they account for shot quality, and that higher is better.)
There's an extremely insignificant correlation, and it's almost entirely due to his one shutout after 16 days of rest.
However, correlation can be thrown off by things like those games with double digits of rest. If you narrow things down to just the games with 0-4 days of rest, here's how he looks:
Or, if you want to look at how he has fared on average in those games:
Basically, he has played at the same level regardless of rest, but has had slightly better defense in front of him in the games where he has had more rest. This is confirmed if you look at his expected save percentage, where there actually is a real correlation, albeit still a mild one.
Basically, the team started playing better defense and Jones started playing less frequently once DeBoer was fired.
