Salary Cap: Pittsburgh Penguins Salary Cap - Wakin' up too early

[DesertPenguin]

Report was they can get a 2nd and 5th for him now. Depends how they value Galchenyuk. Chucky, 5th, and guy like Drozg could work too. Remenber, Toffoli is a UFA and hasn't exactly been lighting it up.

Yeah, 2nd and 5th seems like a reasonable value for Toffoli, but I don't think they would value Chucky as a 2nd. Some team out there might, but not the Kings with Chucky being a pending UFA. They can flip him at the deadline, but the best they could hope for is still just a 2nd, so why not take the 2nd instead?

I think it's more likely we move Chucky for a 2nd or 3rd, and then flip the asset with one of Poulin, Addison or our 1st, hopefully not more than one, to get a winger.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Keep in mind the BART line is probably going out there at the end of games to protect the lead a bit. So that will effect their P/60.

I don’t know that happens for sure though but it’d make sense.

I don't think that would have a substantial impact. They just haven't scored all that much. Granted, they give up even fewer goals and they're eating tough minutes, so they're certainly not a problem, but they haven't been all that productive. I don't feel comfortable with complementing 1 unproductive bottom-6 line with another unproductive bottom-6 line.

In 15-16, Bonino had a 5v5 GF/60 of 2.53. I don't think you need a 3rd line at that level, but you definitely need at least 1 bottom-6 line at a 2.3 GF/60 or higher. The Capitals are getting 2.81 GF/60 out of their 3rd line, based on the numbers Eller is posting. Having a 3rd line that's barely cracking 2 GF/60 and a 4th line that is barely cracking 1.5 GF/60 just isn't good neough.

 

[Beauner]

Fast, sure but why are the Rangers trading him here? I think they like him, no? You're not confusing him with Tyson Jost, are you?

Nope, Fast is the guy. He is an assistant captain, but also a UFA. Not sure what his intentions are but if he's looking to explore his value this summer I imagine he wouldn't be too costly to acquire.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Was literally just going to post that if you want the 3rd line to keep scoring a ton, I think Kahun's the important guy to keep there and not McCann.

This is ultimately why I want to keep Simon in the top-6 and put Kahun on the 3rd line. We have a very extensive data set that suggests that top-6 lines with Simon on it produce a lot and bottom-6 lines with Simon on it can't produce at all. From watching them, I'd also comfortably say that Kahun generates offense better than Simon does. I think a perfect 3rd line has both Kahun and McCann on it, which is what I'm shooting for/expecting next year, but you need someone who can actually score and generate offense on that 3rd line. I don't think Simon is capable of doing that. In his career, Simon has been a guy who has made a good offensive line better.

Get someone like Zucker or Saad, or another player who can finish plays (both Saad and Zucker are perfect for those roles), and play them with Simon and Crosby. Put McCann with Rust and Malkin and have Kahun with Hornqvist and Bjugstad. I think that's the best way you can set up your top-9 without performing major surgery.

 

[Gurglesons]

This is ultimately why I want to keep Simon in the top-6 and put Kahun on the 3rd line. We have a very extensive data set that suggests that top-6 lines with Simon on it produce a lot and bottom-6 lines with Simon on it can't produce at all. From watching them, I'd also comfortably say that Kahun generates offense better than Simon does. I think a perfect 3rd line has both Kahun and McCann on it, which is what I'm shooting for/expecting next year, but you need someone who can actually score and generate offense on that 3rd line. I don't think Simon is capable of doing that. In his career, Simon has been a guy who has made a good offensive line better.

Get someone like Zucker or Saad, or another player who can finish plays (both Saad and Zucker are perfect for those roles), and play them with Simon and Crosby. Put McCann with Rust and Malkin and have Kahun with Hornqvist and Bjugstad. I think that's the best way you can set up your top-9 without performing major surgery.

Kahun and McCann are pacing for 18 and 20 goals respectively. Why do we need more scoring talent again?

Kahun - McCann - Hornqvist should be our third line when healthy if you’re insistent on Simon being in the top six.

Simon - Crosby - Bjugstad
Guentzel - Malkin - Rust
Kahun - McCann - Hornqvist
ZAR - Bleuger - Tanev

Should have been our line up if healthy.

 

[DesertPenguin]

Nah, I think you're going to see:

Trade-Crosby-Simon
McCann-Malkin-Rust
Kahun-Bjugstad-Hornqvist
ZAR-Blueger-Tanev

When Guentzel is back, I think McCann slides into the 3C spot, Guentzel takes McCann's spot and they move Bjugstad. I think Sullivan is higher on Simon than he is on Kahun, and based on the results that Simon has given while playing in a top-6 role, I think it would be better to put Kahun on a 3rd line role to drive offense from that spot. Not to mention that Kahun and McCann mesh really well together IMO.

Either option works. Any way you slice it though, I think Bjugstad stays and we look to move him over the summer. We at least need to get him into some games and see if he fits before moving him and even more assets for a player that plays a role that he himself may be able to do.

 

[Ryder71]

We have 14 games left against the Caps, Canes, Bruins, Lightning and Leafs. I'll be very curious to see what our record is in those games. While we're playing extremely well (for the most part) and riddled with an absurd level of injuries to key players, we still have a long way to go to figure out where we'll fit with the beasts of the east. Strange we haven't seen the Caps yet. Tough schedule ahead.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Simon - Crosby - Bjugstad
Guentzel - Malkin - Rust
Kahun - McCann - Hornqvist
ZAR - Bleuger - Tanev

Should have been our line up if healthy.

Barf

 

[Empoleon8771]

Kahun and McCann are pacing for 18 and 20 goals respectively. Why do we need more scoring talent again?

Kahun - McCann - Hornqvist should be our third line when healthy if you’re insistent on Simon being in the top six.

Simon - Crosby - Bjugstad
Guentzel - Malkin - Rust
Kahun - McCann - Hornqvist
ZAR - Bleuger - Tanev

Should have been our line up if healthy.

That should be their target for next year, but with a new winger in place of Bjugstad. But Guentzel is dead right now and they need to acquire someone right now, and ideally you get someone with term to fill that spot long-term. Bjugstad isn't going to cut it as a top line RW.

Their lineup should be Saad-Crosby-Simon with lines 2-4 you listed for next year.

 

[Shady Machine]

Kahun and McCann are pacing for 18 and 20 goals respectively. Why do we need more scoring talent again?

Kahun - McCann - Hornqvist should be our third line when healthy if you’re insistent on Simon being in the top six.

Simon - Crosby - Bjugstad
Guentzel - Malkin - Rust
Kahun - McCann - Hornqvist
ZAR - Bleuger - Tanev

Should have been our line up if healthy.

Bjugstad with Crosby is puke IMO.

Edit: @Soggy Biscuit beat me to the vomit reference.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Edit: @Soggy Biscuit beat me to the vomit reference.

It's reflexive.

 

[Gurglesons]

Bjugstad with Crosby is puke IMO.

Edit: @Soggy Biscuit beat me to the vomit reference.

Not sure why. You try him out there. He was very productive with Barkov who plays a similar game to Sid.

Obviously we want an improvement. But whateve.

 

[Peat]

Not sure why. You try him out there. He was very productive with Barkov who plays a similar game to Sid.

Obviously we want an improvement. But whateve.

Gotta say, I don't see him working there, but I'd still try him anyway just to see if magic happens.

 

[Turin]

Not sure why. You try him out there. He was very productive with Barkov who plays a similar game to Sid.

Obviously we want an improvement. But whateve.

I want Bjugstad on the wing but I don’t think I want him with Simon on the other wing.. but hey, who knows? Bjugs has a good shot and both Sid and Simon can work the boards and make plays. Don’t see it working long term. Saad-Crosby-Bjugstad is intriguing to me if Bjugs can get to his 2015/2018 level.

 

[mpp9]

Bjugstad won't keep up with how Crosby processes the game. But for now, sure.

Ain't gonna be a solution come playoffs.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

I want Bjugstad on the wing but I don’t think I want him with Simon on the other wing.. but hey, who knows? Bjugs has a good shot and both Sid and Simon can work the boards and make plays. Don’t see it working long term. Saad-Crosby-Bjugstad is intriguing to me if Bjugs can get to his 2015/2018 level.

I have a hard time thinking of a worse player type for Crosby tbh.

I mean anything's possible, but Bjugstad isn't a burner, or tenacious in the hard areas, and isn't overflowing with hockey IQ.

 

[Peat]

I want Bjugstad on the wing but I don’t think I want him with Simon on the other wing.. but hey, who knows? Bjugs has a good shot and both Sid and Simon can work the boards and make plays. Don’t see it working long term. Saad-Crosby-Bjugstad is intriguing to me if Bjugs can get to his 2015/2018 level.

I'd stick both McCann and Bjoogs up there for now just to see which of them looks at home tbh.

 

[Turin]

McCann-Crosby-Rakell
Kahun-Malkin-Rust
ZAR-Bleuger-Tanev
Simon-Bjugstad-Hornqvist

Eh? If only that amazing on paper 4th line could score.

If they’re moving McCann to wing I might like Saad-Crosby-McCann better though.

 

[Peat]

McCann-Crosby-Rakell
Kahun-Malkin-Rust
ZAR-Bleuger-Tanev
Simon-Bjugstad-Hornqvist

Eh? If only that amazing on paper 4th line could score.

If they’re moving McCann to wing I might like Saad-Crosby-McCann better though.

Tbh, I'm not sure Simon-Bjugstad-Hornqvist is that fixed to stay with their previous goal totals if reunited. Hornqvist's shooting percentage being miles below average probably had more to do with his concussion than his linemates, and the whole team was very defence first with the likes of JJ and Gudzilla being the offensive backup. We've got far more help there - and would also be less committed to using them against good lines. I see no reason to think it couldn't break out a little. No guarantees mind, and tbh I think I prefer seeing if we can keep Kahun on L3 and use someone else in the top 6 (well, Simon), but its all plausible.

 

[SEALBound]

Eh. Plenty of teams have won with a loaded top 6, stingy bottom 6 approach. If you can get another HBK, great. If not, it's not the end, because winning with this approach is far from impossible. And lets be real here - people are going to focus on Sid and Geno's lines regardless, and Sid and Geno are going to have to win past that most of the time or we're not winning the cup with any 3rd line you care to mention.

....not recently. League trends change. What worked in 2009, as Emp point out, may not work today.

 

[66-30-33]

We have 14 games left against the Caps, Canes, Bruins, Lightning and Leafs. I'll be very curious to see what our record is in those games. While we're playing extremely well (for the most part) and riddled with an absurd level of injuries to key players, we still have a long way to go to figure out where we'll fit with the beasts of the east. Strange we haven't seen the Caps yet. Tough schedule ahead.

I don't like how we play Caps so much closer towards the playoffs. Gives Wilson time to do his thing and purposly take our players out again and act like an innocent angel while our playoff chances are finished.

 

[Peat]

....not recently. League trends change. What worked in 2009, as Emp point out, may not work today.

Would you really keel over in shock and go "Omg! They won with two scoring lines and by being stingy! Nobody's done that in two years!" if it turned out it still worked?

 

[Empoleon8771]

I don't think you should be planning on building your lineup with 2 scoring lines and 2 stingy lines, because you can't win games by not giving up goals alone unless the stingy lines are eating defensive minutes and letting your top-6 have easier matchups. If your top-6 goes cold and your bottom-6 can't produce, you're essentially dead in the water. That doesn't mean "have Brassard and Kessel on your 3rd line", that just means you need to have better than 3.5 5v5 GF/60 combined between your bottom-6.

If you get that little of production out of your bottom-6, you either need your top-6 and special teams to get 2-3 goals a game or you need your goalie to be stellar. A bottom-6 of 3.5 5v5 GF/60 probably ends up being only about 1 goal a game. I don't view that as sustainable way to win at all, even if your bottom-6 isn't getting scored on much. The Penguins got both stellar goaltending and a **** load of production out of their top-6 and special teams in 2017 and they barely won.

 

[Ryder71]

I don't like how we play Caps so much closer towards the playoffs. Gives Wilson time to do his thing and purposly take our players out again and act like an innocent angel while our playoff chances are finished.

I just don't know where exactly we'll fit in with that group of teams. While we should be optimistic and encouraged by what we're seeing, we haven't really played many high quality opponents from the east. I believe we're 2-2-2 against the Isles, Leafs, Lightning and Bruins thus far. Not exactly impressive. Albeit we've been ravaged by injury.

 

[Peat]

If the top 6 goes cold we're probably dead in the water anyway.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying "this is fine, we should absolutely do it this way and it's all we need". But... it's a legit shot at winning. It's want vs need. We want more from the bottom 6. We don't definitely need it.