Salary Cap: Pittsburgh Penguins Salary Cap Thread - The no fake rumors edition

[Gurglesons]

We have to take his goal totals with a grain of salt, I agree. Hitting 20 would require him being a regular in the top 6.

Should be noted that Rust has never hit 20 goals here, though.

But has paced for 20 two of the last three.

And let’s be honest about Rust. He’s never seen regular consistent minutes in the top six.

 

[Khelandros]

I could not possibly disagree with that more. If we're LUCKY Kahun can maybe be a Rust-lite (I have my doubts) and Bjorkqvist will be able to do 60% of what Rust can by next year. Other than that you're either expecting way too much from our prospects or severely underrating Rust. Or both.

If you mean not scoring for like 3 months at a time, I think we are covered.

 

[Peat]

HOPE is the important word there. While there is some hating on Tanev going on around here, there is also some massive overrating of the guy as well IMO.

I increasingly want less and less to do with Tanev discussions, as they're getting way polarised over a guy who hasn't laced up a skate here yet, so yeah there's some overrating (and some underrating) -

But if he does last year, or if he does the year before that if he ends up more on the 4th line, I'll be happy and that's my baseline for these comparisons. My hopes are that he acclimatizes here and that he stays the player he's been, not anything more. Yeah, there's some crazy hopes of what he could be, but he doesn't need to meet them to be a worthwhile player here. Imo and all that.

 

[Riptide]

First of all, Kahun and McCann have proven virtually nothing in the grand scheme of things. As of this moment Rust is the 4th best winger on the team behind Jake, Chucky and Hornqvist. And that's not emotional attachment, that's facts. If we're trading him because he the easiest to move and we need to get under the cap, fine. But trading him because ****ing Kahun and McCann can "take his spot" just does not compute. I'm not sure what Bryan Rust you were watching but outside of October/Novermber he was the same player he always was.

I'm talking about the guy with 3 PO points over the last 16 PO games. That is NOT the "same player he always was". Especially when people talk up his "playoff pedigree" as reasons to keep him.

As for Kahun and McCann, we're clearly not going to agree - so lets shelve t his for 6 months then have this same discussion. Because I'm fairly confident that we will get more out of either of those guys next season then we're getting out of Rust.

 

[Riptide]

But has paced for 20 two of the last three.

And let’s be honest about Rust. He’s never seen regular consistent minutes in the top six.

He's spent 65% of his icetime with Crosby or Malkin over the last 3 seasons. How much more consistent do you want?

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

But has paced for 20 two of the last three.

And let’s be honest about Rust. He’s never seen regular consistent minutes in the top six.

If we're being honest about Rust, we need to mention a couple specific facts rather than subjective takes:

1) Regardless of what Rust paces for, he has missed a minimum of 10 games a season to injury every single year (average 16 games per season over the last 3) and at age 23 McCann has already played more games in a season than Rust ever has.

2) Of his 1878 5v5 minutes the last 2 years, 1254 of them have been with one of Crosby or Malkin. That means he's spent 66% of his 5v5 time with an elite superstar center, which is about as cushy a gig as any NHL winger can hope to get. He's not hard done by here...exactly the opposite.

 

[SHOOTANDSCORE]

I think I’m going to hate this Tanev deal a lot more if it ends up with this team just having Tanev and not both Tanev/Rust

Yeah. I'm for it if it means trying to return to the overwhelming speed, nasty forecheck/backcheck model. But if it's Rust out and Tanev in, that's going to leave a very bitter taste in my mouth.

Multiple people have said they are expecting close to 20 goals from him next year. So he’d be playing top six minutes. Isn’t this the criticism people are literally using on Rust which is what my argument was about in reaction to McCann?

I said he'd get over 2o playing in the top 6 but I think Sully is going to be rotating the hot hands into the top 6 all season and he probably won't be leaned on as heavily on the PK either, so who knows how it plays out.

 

[Peat]

I mean I guess at least MANAGEMENT is consistent in their application of shipping those players out. So yay?

But trading players who are inconsistent at this salary level seems unproductive and selling your assets low. That's like buying a collie and being mad that they shed a lot. You knew what you were "buying" .

And when they signed Sheary, then Rust, then trading for Reaves, then Olek and then JJ. I could go on like this.
Why is Management so surprised that players end up who everyone knows they are?

Next we'll hear the reason we traded ZAR was he didn't fit the mold of a fast/skilled player. Well duh
Feels like JR is as fickle as a middle school girls' love interest when it comes to players...it shifts by the week

They're not getting moved solely because of inconsistency though. They're getting moved mostly because of some combination of the following

a) They're less inconsistent and more consistently bad (Brassard, Sprong, Sheahan)
b) They do not provide more bang for buck than internal replacements and are moved to make space (Sheary, Grant, Pearson)

Consistency and inconsistency comes into it with B because if a player is consistently giving their best, then it's a lot less likely that the internal replacement will offer more bang for buck. And while it'd be nice if the pace of replacement was a little slower, reality is it can't be much slower when we're up against the cap every season and Rutherford is consistently looking to introduce fresh cheap legs.

Which is why Rust needs to get a bit more consistent or start looking up moving quotes. He's a good player here, but we've got a cap crunch now and a cap crunch next summer and cheap good versatile wingers by the bucketload. Either Rust makes himself clearly better than them, or he's gone.

And I don't really see a better way of doing it than this. Would have been easier if Rutherford had made some smarter moves along the way, but it's still going to be the same basic dance - acquire cheap useful player, develop them, give them money, see if they justify it, move them if they don't.

 

[K Fleur]

Yeah. I'm for it if it means trying to return to the overwhelming speed, nasty forecheck/backcheck model. But if it's Rust out and Tanev in, that's going to leave a very bitter taste in my mouth..

If JJ is gone with him I’ll take it. But just Tanev in and Rust out in a cap crunch move is terrible asset management.

 

[Shady Machine]

It was a gamble, but some people are putting it in the same category as JJ which isn't arguing in earnest IMO.

There's a big difference between overpaying a useful player by a mil per and overpaying a terrible player by a few mil per.

For sure. I think the link is more of 'terrible July 1 contract strikes again' than the players themselves.

 

[Shady Machine]

Where's the hate for signing a bottom 6 player to 7 years? Because that was a lot of the *****ing just 2 weeks ago.

Sissons is a better player IMO, costs $750K less, plays center and wing, is proven with the team he is on, and has played more than 1 full NHL season at 30ish points.

 

[Gurglesons]

He's spent 65% of his icetime with Crosby or Malkin over the last 3 seasons. How much more consistent do you want?

I mean, he’s regularly being dropped to the 3rd and 4th line which is effecting his production. Players like Guentzel get 80% of their time in the top six.

 

[Dennis Reynolds]

That Colton Sissons contract is brilliant.

 

[Shady Machine]

If we're being honest about Rust, we need to mention a couple specific facts rather than subjective takes:

1) Regardless of what Rust paces for, he has missed a minimum of 10 games a season to injury every single year (average 16 games per season over the last 3) and at age 23 McCann has already played more games in a season than Rust ever has.

2) Of his 1878 5v5 minutes the last 2 years, 1254 of them have been with one of Crosby or Malkin. That means he's spent 66% of his 5v5 time with an elite superstar center, which is about as cushy a gig as any NHL winger can hope to get. He's not hard done by here...exactly the opposite.

Why does Rust get dinged for playing with Crosby and Malkin but players that haven't proven as much get a benefit (in analysis discussions) for NOT playing with Crosby/Malkin or comparable top line players? Maybe the other guy just isn't good enough to play with those players?

McCann MIGHT be able to produce more playing with Sid/Geno, but he might not be. Rust HAS produced at the level he has with Sid/Geno and others. Reality is at this point, Rust is our 4th best winger. Whether McCann or whoever else can be better than Rust this year is yet to be seen.

 

[Gurglesons]

Sissons is a better player IMO, costs $750K less, plays center and wing, is proven with the team he is on, and has played more than 1 full NHL season at 30ish points.

And is 3 years younger.

 

[Gurglesons]

Why does Rust get dinged for playing with Crosby and Malkin but players that haven't proven as much get a benefit (in analysis discussions) for NOT playing with Crosby/Malkin or comparable top line players? Maybe the other guy just isn't good enough to play with those players?

McCann MIGHT be able to produce more playing with Sid/Geno, but he might not be. Rust HAS produced at the level he has with Sid/Geno and others. Reality is at this point, Rust is our 4th best winger. Whether McCann or whoever else can be better than Rust this year is yet to be seen.

Yeah, this is pretty much my point. If we put Rusf with Geno for 80% of his shifts and he stays relatively healthy everything about his time here says to me he’d be a 20-20 guy who is our second best PKer.

 

[K Fleur]

Rust is a player i’d want bouncing around from line to line. 65% top 6 ice time should be fine for him. That’s probably too high honestly. Rust isn’t the same caliber of player as Guentzel and should not be getting the same percentage of time in the top 6.

 

[Riptide]

I mean, he’s regularly being dropped to the 3rd and 4th line which is effecting his production. Players like Guentzel get 80% of their time in the top six.

And yet year over year he's still consistently seeing ~65% of his TOI with a superstar center - especially in the past 2 seasons.

18/19: 65.87% of his 5v5 TOI was with Crosby or Malkin.
17/18: 69.6% of his 5v5 TOI was with Crosby or Malkin.
16/17: 55.7% of his 5v5 TOI was with Crosby or Malkin.

 

[Andy99]

It's too early to blow off Rust and trade him imo...we need at least a month into the season to see which players fit and are playing at or above expectations, and how everyone meshes...it's clear some forward, maybe 2 or 3, is going to be traded off the roster and needs to be traded before next summer. Rust could improve his play and others regress but it's hard to know now...ideally JR keeps this forward group together and then reassesses in November....the D will need some tweaking and some forward will need to go...it could be Rust, could be someone else...it's too early to write him off...

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

I mean, he’s regularly being dropped to the 3rd and 4th line which is effecting his production. Players like Guentzel get 80% of their time in the top six.

Guentzel makes the most of what he gets. You could not ask more from a player at ES.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

And is 3 years younger.

Less than 2, actually.

 

[Shady Machine]

Rust is a player i’d want bouncing around from line to line. 65% top 6 ice time should be fine for him. That’s probably too high honestly. Rust isn’t the same caliber of player as Guentzel and should not be getting the same percentage of time in the top 6.

Of course not, but people shouldn't be surprised when that impacts his production. I think it's fine to say that Rust, McCann, Kahun, and Simon can battle it out for top 6 ice time, but at this point in time, Rust is the best of the 4 and is the one I'd trust all things considered.

Rust had an inconsistent season last year no doubt, but when that inconsistent season is 18 goals and 35 points, imagine what a consistent season for him would look like. That's the bizarre part for me. People are shitting on his season when honestly it's pretty good, at least from production standards. He needs to up his intensity night in and night out to still have the same effect on the game, but I think he knows that and deserves another shot here to show that.

 

[BrookswasHere44]

2.85m. He's looking for the guaranteed deal vs trying to hit something in FA. He has a career high 30pts. Odds are he could get 3m+ fairly easily in FA... but it would be a shorter deal. This is a sure thing.



He can block 3 teams. I wouldn't get to excited about it.

I'm not getting excited haha. I don't exactly have a huge problem with the player or the contract, but capfriendly says he submits 10 team no trade. What do you mean he can block 3 teams?

 

[Riptide]

Why does Rust get dinged for playing with Crosby and Malkin but players that haven't proven as much get a benefit (in analysis discussions) for NOT playing with Crosby/Malkin or comparable top line players? Maybe the other guy just isn't good enough to play with those players?

Given all the bitching that's done when Rust does play there, I somehow doubt that that is the reason (that he's good enough and other's aren't).

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Why does Rust get dinged for playing with Crosby and Malkin but players that haven't proven as much get a benefit (in analysis discussions) for NOT playing with Crosby/Malkin or comparable top line players? Maybe the other guy just isn't good enough to play with those players?

McCann MIGHT be able to produce more playing with Sid/Geno, but he might not be. Rust HAS produced at the level he has with Sid/Geno and others. Reality is at this point, Rust is our 4th best winger. Whether McCann or whoever else can be better than Rust this year is yet to be seen.

Not sure what benefit is being referred to here.

If we're talking about who's disposable, Rust is older, makes a lot more money, and is less durable. If we're talking about a top 6 role, McCann was more productive than Rust and looked better with Sid in a limited sample size.