Salary Cap: Pittsburgh Penguins Salary Cap Thread - Level of Interest Meter Pegged At Zero

[Andy99]

No, that's not what it said. Drawing a conclusion based on a mis-read interpretation of an article you didn't read?

It projects Malkin to provide an overall positive value for his contract over the next three years. It just says that based on expected age effects he will more than likely not be a 9.5 million dollar player when he's 37. Which is not that insane to think.

But yeah man, it's embarrassing for sure. The Athletic should fire this guy.

But this contract ($9.5 mil) ends when he's 35, not 37, so I don't see the point of saying 37 when his next contract, if there is one, will be substantially less and could be good value then..

 

[Peat]

But this contract ($9.5 mil) ends when he's 35, not 37, so I don't see the point of saying 37 when his next contract, if there is one, will be substantially less and could be good value then..

It ends when he's 36 shortly before he turns 37. Malkin's born July 31 86 - he'll turn 33 before the season starts, and he'll be 36 before his last season on this contract.

 

[Shady Machine]

It ends when he's 36 shortly before he turns 37. Malkin's born July 31 86 - he'll turn 33 before the season starts, and he'll be 36 before his last season on this contract.

Malkin is 32 turning 33 in a few weeks. He has 3 years left on his deal. He will be 33, 34, and 35 for the remainder of his contract. Am I missing something? Are they factoring the old "Russian age lie" into their numbers?

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

But this contract ($9.5 mil) ends when he's 35, not 37, so I don't see the point of saying 37 when his next contract, if there is one, will be substantially less and could be good value then..

Wellllllll... I dunno about that. If he takes a low dollar contract to stick around in Pittsburgh, that'd be pretty heroic. Considering even at that age I'm quite sure he could get a ton of money out of his hometown team.

It would be funny to watch him do something like that and still hear the fans complain about how he's not committed enough to the team, though...

 

[Andy99]

It ends when he's 36 shortly before he turns 37. Malkin's born July 31 86 - he'll turn 33 before the season starts, and he'll be 36 before his last season on this contract.

He’s only got three years including this one, doesn’t he? So the contract covers his age 33, 34 and 35 seasons...he would be 36 to start the next contract...

 

[Andy99]

Wellllllll... I dunno about that. If he takes a low dollar contract to stick around in Pittsburgh, that'd be pretty heroic. Considering even at that age I'm quite sure he could get a ton of money out of his hometown team.

It would be funny to watch him do something like that and still hear the fans complain about how he's not committed enough to the team, though...

Yeah of course...depends how he’s playing though...I could see him getting like $6 mil per on his next contract...and that could be A value, who knows..,

 

[Riptide]

Clearly not.



See my first response. You don't understand what I'm arguing.

This is not based on icetime. Its about where he was playing.

You're saying that irrelevant of whatever icetime he actually received, he was playing in a scoring role. Which is false. Playing 2 shifts with Crosby/Malkin and 10 with Cullen isn't "playing in a scoring role". You can "vividly remember" it all you want... you're still wrong and by and large his TOI proves this.

I've been consistent and your links don't lead anywhere. Please quote so I can respond.

Yep, not consistent:

He started in the AHL, was called up to the 4th line for an EXCEPTIONALLY brief, unproductive period before rocketing up the depth chart and remaining in a top 9 role until we made more acquisitions at the deadline, and averaged nearly 14 minutes a night over the course of the season.

I have a vested interest in remembering these details vividly.

Keep in mind that this our coach bent over backwards so far that the crown of his head touched his heels in order to put ZAR in scoring roles.

Newsflash:

L3 = Top 9

When you keep bringing up TOI and how ZAR performed into this conversation, it only reinforces that you don't understand what's being talked about.

It's. About. Where. He. Played.

Newsflash: L3 =/= scoring role.

There's a reason why @pixiesfanyo and myself have been separating his stints as "top 6" and not. You started off arguing as "scoring role" then changed that to "top 9" as indicated in the posts I referenced.

And if he wasn't getting the minutes, he wasn't playing where you say he was playing. That's the bottom line. You can moan and bitch about whatever you "vividly remember" but the numbers don't lie. He wasn't playing with Malkin or Crosby consistently when he was the 10th or 11th forward in ESTOI. He just wasn't. He had stints there, but that's all it was.

You can try and blame this on me "not understanding" all you want... that still doesn't change the fact that the numbers (ESTOI, with/without you TOI) do not support what you think you remember. Sorry you have a shitty memory.

 

[Peat]

Malkin is 32 turning 33 in a few weeks. He has 3 years left on his deal. He will be 33, 34, and 35 for the remainder of his contract. Am I missing something? Are they factoring the old "Russian age lie" into their numbers?

He’s only got three years including this one, doesn’t he? So the contract covers his age 33, 34 and 35 seasons...he would be 36 to start the next contract...

No, just my basic inability to do maths. My bad gents.

Wellllllll... I dunno about that. If he takes a low dollar contract to stick around in Pittsburgh, that'd be pretty heroic. Considering even at that age I'm quite sure he could get a ton of money out of his hometown team.

It would be funny to watch him do something like that and still hear the fans complain about how he's not committed enough to the team, though...

I feel like if Geno stays, its on something like 7m+ depending on where the cap and his performance levels are. Don't see him wanting to stay if he's so far gone that he can't look people in the eye and say "I'm worth that"; don't see him deciding to stay for some peppercorn rent just because either.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

You're saying that irrelevant of whatever icetime he actually received, he was playing in a scoring role. Which is false. Playing 2 shifts with Crosby/Malkin and 10 with Cullen isn't "playing in a scoring role". You can "vividly remember" it all you want... you're still wrong and by and large his TOI proves this.

I said he played overwhelmingly in the top 9. He did.

His time with Crosby, Malkin, and Brassard vs. how much he played without them shows as much.

Quoting his TOI, how he performed, and parsing when he played with these players shows nothing.

Yep, not consistent:

I said he bent over backwards to put ZAR in scoring roles in the context of a separate discussion about how Tanev might be used. I did not say ZAR played the majority of his time in a scoring line role. You are conflating two different quotes representing two different ideas.

At some point I'm going to have to quit arguing with you because I spend more time trying to clarify what's being discussed than making actual points. You're either misunderstanding or deliberately misrepresenting things.

There's a reason why @pixiesfanyo and myself have been separating his stints as "top 6" and not. You started off arguing as "scoring role" then changed that to "top 9" as indicated in the posts I referenced.

And if he wasn't getting the minutes, he wasn't playing where you say he was playing. That's the bottom line. You can moan and ***** about whatever you "vividly remember" but the numbers don't lie. He wasn't playing with Malkin or Crosby when he was the 10th or 1th forward in ESTOI. He just wasn't.

You can try and blame this on me "not understanding" all you want... that still doesn't change the fact that the numbers (ESTOI, with/without you TOI) do not support what you think you remember.

 

[Dangles78]

Good Lord, this ZAR argument that continues to go on is insufferable

 

[Shady Machine]

No, just my basic inability to do maths. My bad gents.



I feel like if Geno stays, its on something like 7m+ depending on where the cap and his performance levels are. Don't see him wanting to stay if he's so far gone that he can't look people in the eye and say "I'm worth that"; don't see him deciding to stay for some peppercorn rent just because either.

Totally cool. Just checking.

The one thing I think that gives more credibility to the numbers, again without having read the article (should probably just get an athletic sub as it's cheap all things considered), is the injury history. If the date projects Geno at 60ish games a year and 65 points, I can see how that projects to worse value vs let's say Duchene at 8MM playing 70 games and 70ish points.

That said, I think the hardest thing to figure into this data (and I'm not saying it makes this case) is how likely is it that you can replace any particular player for better value? For replacement level players, it's easier to use this data as there are a ton of other players you could get. With top 6 centers, even declining ones, it's very limited in how you can replace them.

 

[Gurglesons]

I said he played overwhelmingly in the top 9. He did.

His time with Crosby, Malkin, and Brassard vs. how much he played without them shows as much.

Quoting his TOI, how he performed, and parsing when he played with these players shows nothing.



I said he bent over backwards to put ZAR in scoring roles in the context of a separate discussion about how Tanev might be used. I did not say ZAR played the majority of his time in a scoring line role. You are conflating two different quotes representing two different ideas.

At some point I'm going to have to quit arguing with you because I spend more time trying to clarify what's being discussed than making actual points. You're either misunderstanding or deliberately misrepresenting things.

There’s a difference between where ZAR lines up on the game roster at the beginning of the broadcast and how ZAR was actually deployed which I think you’re greatly undervaluing.

Not to mention in a few of those games Brassard was barely playing more minutes or less minutes than the 4th line center. So regardless of “Brassard’s line being the 3rd line” it was in reality used the least which IMO is the 4th line. Just like a forward getting 10th ATOI on the team for a stint is a 4th liner.

 

[Sam Spade]

lol -- Malkin signed at 9.5M a "B-"

Recency bias is a hell of a thing.

He did the same thing with Ovechkin. B- at 9.5 million. I read his formula and there is no way those salaries are not commensurate with the return from both players.

He was spot on with some for sure but some of the "grades" were head scratchers.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

There’s a difference between where ZAR lines up on the game roster at the beginning of the broadcast and how ZAR was actually deployed which I think you’re greatly undervaluing.

That has no bearing on my argument.

ZAR played 494 5v5 minutes last year.
ZAR played 37 minutes with Crosby.
ZAR played 118 minutes with Brassard.
ZAR played 180 minutes with Malkin.

That means he played at least 335 of his 494 5v5 minutes, or 68% of his time, in the top 9.

It's that simple.

 

[froods]

That has no bearing on my argument.

ZAR played 494 5v5 minutes last year.
ZAR played 37 minutes with Crosby.
ZAR played 118 minutes with Brassard.
ZAR played 180 minutes with Malkin.

That means he played at least 335 of his 494 5v5 minutes, or 68% of his time, in the top 9.

It's that simple.

Having data and facts are great to support an argument. Using data as your argument is where people fail. Great job @Soggy Biscuit

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

That has no bearing on my argument.

ZAR played 494 5v5 minutes last year.
ZAR played 37 minutes with Crosby.
ZAR played 118 minutes with Brassard.
ZAR played 180 minutes with Malkin.

That means he played at least 335 of his 494 5v5 minutes, or 68% of his time, in the top 9.

It's that simple.

It doest matter what percentage of HIS minutes.

If he play 5 minutes a game and 80% was line one, it doesnt make him a 1st line winger.

 

[SHOOTANDSCORE]

I love Simon but I’d be trying Kahun there first. After that I think Simon is the best option. Good news is for pretty much anyone is if players aren’t performing there’s a bunch of guys who can fit. That goes for any line.

I'd probably start Kahun mostly down the lineup for a handful of games first as he learns the system and adjusts. He seems like a smart player, so preseason might be enough for that.

 

[Tom Hanks]

Having data and facts are great to support an argument. Using data as your argument is where people fail. Great job @Soggy Biscuit

There is a bit of r/technicallytheytruth on both sides.

The main issue seems to be his usage and 12 other forwards had higher even strength ATOI minutes which suggests they play in the top 9 more than ZAR.

That plus the fact we have more forwards who are “better” than him on our current roster should put minds at ease of where he plays if that’s a huge concern.

If he’s in the top 6 regularly either we have a ****load of injuries or we are bleeding goals. I doubt he’s beating anyone out of the top 6 if healthy and will probably struggle if that’s extended to the top 9. Although “fit” & form comes into the equation more so.

It’s really much ado about nothing at this stage of the season.

 

[Tom Hanks]

I'd probably start Kahun mostly down the lineup for a handful of games first as he learns the system and adjusts. He seems like a smart player, so preseason might be enough for that.

We certainly have options.

 

[SHOOTANDSCORE]

Yeah of course...depends how he’s playing though...I could see him getting like $6 mil per on his next contract...and that could be A value, who knows..,

Maybe... if they give grades to KHL contracts.

He did the same thing with Ovechkin. B- at 9.5 million. I read his formula and there is no way those salaries are not commensurate with the return from both players.

He was spot on with some for sure but some of the "grades" were head scratchers.

Doesn't B- mean more than commensurate? C should mean average, so I'd think that would be where the salaries are commensurate with the returns. Or did he use a different grading scale?

 

[Empoleon8771]

I have addressed the argument of ZAR's minutes in the past to Soggy. ZAR playing 20% of his ice time with Crosby alone doesn't prove that ZAR is spending 20% of the time on the top line. It's that absolutely necessary context that is being ignored, which has been brought up before. ZAR and Crosby playing together as Crosby is getting double shifted on the 4th line and ZAR and Crosby playing together on the top line are extremely different things. ZAR playing with Crosby for 1 minute in 15 different games and ZAR playing with Crosby for 15 minutes in 1 game are extremely different things.

ZAR played 1 game with Crosby and about 14 games with Malkin (where the ZAR-Malkin-Kessel line was playing extremely well). Those are the actual numbers in terms of games he played with those guys. ZAR was also extremely productive with Crosby and Malkin this year too, plus his analytics are good. Maybe he's actually a good 3rd line player that can put up good results in spot duty in the top-6?

 

[Sam Spade]

Maybe... if they give grades to KHL contracts.

Doesn't B- mean more than commensurate? C should mean average, so I'd think that would be where the salaries are commensurate with the returns. Or did he use a different grading scale?

By the numbers: Grading every team's contract efficiency

Teams will be graded empirically based on the surplus value they bring in per player contract (all dead money counts as one) as well as the average probability those deals will provide positive value. Both are based on a player’s age-adjusted projected win output according to GSVA and the uncertainty in that projection for future seasons, along with the cost of a win on the open market. How much each team spends to obtain those wins will also be graded.

 

[Mario_is_BACK!!]

JT Compher - scored at a 40 point pace last year. Four years, $3.5 million for Colorado.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

You edited too quickly I had a Taken gif ready to go “good luck”

Cell phone auto-correct is amazing fun isn't it?

 

[Turin]

JT Compher - scored at a 40 point pace last year. Four years, $3.5 million for Colorado.

RFA. Get a grip