Salary Cap: Pittsburgh Penguins Salary Cap Thread - I'd rather be your cocoon

[Peat]

I find this to be rather untrue. I think people would be up in arms over Murray's next contract because of his recent play in any case. That is when the question would be asked "Who is your starter if not Matt Murray?". This is where Tristan Jarry comes in. Because of his recent play he seems to be the common answer to this question, but the answer could just as well be "Trade for another one" or "Sign one in free agency".

True proven starters only get traded once a blue moon and any free agency contract would have people just as angry as Murray's. There's a reason so many orgs seem to flail around sorting our their goaltending for so long and that's why Jarry emerging is a real game changer on Murray's value to this org.

 

[Pittsburgh1776]

Matt Murray is an established goalie? In what league? He’s not some veteran who has proven himself over years. He had two short runs and that is all. So again, I’m laughing at some of these potential money deals where he gets anything north of 6.5M. If we’re going off the last two years, he isn’t worth more than 4M.

 

[Gurglesons]

Matt Murray is an established goalie? In what league? He’s not some veteran who has proven himself over years. He had two short runs and that is all. So again, I’m laughing at some of these potential money deals where he gets anything north of 6.5M. If we’re going off the last two years, he isn’t worth more than 4M.

If Murray is not an established veteran than Jarry is certainly even more concerning.

 

[Gurglesons]

I find this to be rather untrue. I think people would be up in arms over Murray's next contract because of his recent play in any case. That is when the question would be asked "Who is your starter if not Matt Murray?". This is where Tristan Jarry comes in. Because of his recent play he seems to be the common answer to this question, but the answer could just as well be "Trade for another one" or "Sign one in free agency".

Well, fans are stupid and knee jerk. Especially Pittsburgh fans.

 

[Ugene Magic]

And why cant Murray be that long term future? Hes only 25. And odds are very good that hes not getting 8m. With this stretch of play it's likely closer to 6m then 7m+.

And for all the bitcjing you're doing about MM not having played a full seasons workload as a starter ( I disagree, but w/e), what does that then say about Jarry? Hes only played 40 NHL games over 3 seasons. Why is that better the the guy who (off the top of my head - am on my phone) has played 40+ games in each of the past 3 seasons? You're *****ing about MM while Jarry hasn't accomplished that either...

Because the future has Jarry making less, for now playing better, and with that savings being able to actually dress a competable team.

Jarry is just the way to better compete moving forward. Nobody knows what Murray truly wants, so I'll take it as it comes, but for now he's asking for 8/8. Nobody is saying move him now. The decision to move him is to do it this summer where one is going to be much more affordable, one is going to want his coin more than doubled, and if he's a cup winner like you said, he's not going to be getting lowballed at arbitration or in a long-term deal.

Look at the total circumstances.


Jarry may have not done it yet, but he has the real chance at actually doing it, and not 5 years of proof of not doing it. It's a gamble either way, but one is not tying you to a long-term contact that can backfire and force you to cap death and cost you to get out from underneath it.

You know what that looks like?

See Chicago, and pay for nostalgia.

Current state say's to lean one way, and the rest of you are betting/counting on him to be what he actually can't be because the season's just about half over. The decision has to be made this summer. How's he supposed to prove he can for a whole season as the 1A without loss of Jarry? Another small sample size of him doing it part time again?

The economics alone tells me to move, Murray. What Murray has done recently tells me to move, Murray. Even if they win the cup I'm moving, Murray.

Let another team overpay.

Just not the Pens and not until the summer.

 

[T1K]

Cory Schneider

Not exactly the same circumstances, but let’s not act like giving a goalie 6 mil long-term is a safe move...

 

[Pittsburgh1776]

If Murray is not an established veteran than Jarry is certainly even more concerning.

I don’t think anyone is arguing that Jarry is established. The best solution to this problem is that Murray finds consistency and gets to a level that works for this team. Right now there is absolutely no sign of that. My point is that it would be crazy for this organization to (1.) pay Murray for two short runs 2 and 3 years ago and (2.) ignore his inconsistent, often poor play since 2017. Someone here said he’s only had 11 bad games. That is really inaccurate.

 

[Gurglesons]

Cory Schneider

Not exactly the same circumstances, but let’s not act like giving a goalie 6 mil long-term is a safe move...

Cory Schneider had major surgery.

 

[Tom Hanks]

It’s going to be a summer thing for sure. Nothing will happen in season but it doesn’t look that great for Murray especially if he wants to get paid.

The last 3 seasons including this one there has been 54 goalies play more than 3000 minutes and more than 5o games.

Murray 121 games
32nd in SV%
33rd in GAA
37th in xGA
54th average distance of goals (bigger distance lower the rank)

 

[Gurglesons]

I don’t think anyone is arguing that Jarry is established. The best solution to this problem is that Murray finds consistency and gets to a level that works for this team. Right now there is absolutely no sign of that. My point is that it would be crazy for this organization to (1.) pay Murray for two short runs 2 and 3 years ago and (2.) ignore his inconsistent, often poor play since 2017. Someone here said he’s only had 11 bad games. That is really inaccurate.

Paying Murray up to 7 mil with his current play is fine and giving him multiple years is fine. Prefer we don’t but it won’t be a crushing contract.

 

[BrookswasHere44]

The willingness people have to jump to conclusions like "re-signing Murray is nothing but nostalgia" is mindblowing to me. Just like it's mindblowing that people are so willing to pull a quick trigger on trading an established goalie because of a great run by a prospect.

By the way, I'd be willing to bet real money that it's more likely Jarry gets traded than Murray. Do some people forget that JR tried to trade Jarry all last summer? Sure, things are different now, but I seriously doubt that a great start for Jarry and a bad stretch for Murray is going to make JR do a complete 180 degree turn on how he views the goalies.

I call

 

[ChaosAgent]

It’s going to be a summer thing for sure. Nothing will happen in season but it doesn’t look that great for Murray especially if he wants to get paid.

The last 3 seasons including this one there has been 54 goalies play more than 3000 minutes and more than 5o games.

Murray 121 games
32nd in SV%
33rd in GAA
37th in xGA
54th average distance of goals (bigger distance lower the rank)

Top 5? Okay top 10. Okay just kidding top 30? Top 50? Top top top. 2 Stanley Cups.

 

[Peat]

Matt Murray is an established goalie? In what league? He’s not some veteran who has proven himself over years. He had two short runs and that is all. So again, I’m laughing at some of these potential money deals where he gets anything north of 6.5M. If we’re going off the last two years, he isn’t worth more than 4M.

He's been in the league for three and a bit seasons, been above-average in two and a bit of them, played 183 games (28th most in this period), and has the joint 21st best save percentage out of the 50 goalies to have played a 100 or more games since 15-16. And had a strong save percentage last season.

If Murray's not established, then there's only about 20-odd goalies in the league who are.

 

[WayneSid9987]

The last 3 seasons including this one there has been 54 goalies play more than 3000 minutes and more than 5o games.

Murray 121 games
32nd in SV%
33rd in GAA
37th in xGA
54th average distance of goals (bigger distance lower the rank)

Can we get the 54 goalie read out(copy/paste or link available?)
Nice post.

 

[Tom Hanks]

Can we get the 54 goalie read out(copy/paste available?)
Nice post.

You can adjust the filters. I did 3000 min (which is about 50 games)
Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

 

[Ryder71]

If Murray finishes well, I'm inclined to give him a long term contract, roll the goaltending fight onto next year, and make a decision the summer after. Possibly inefficient but I believe I can roughly afford it for the reasons Empoleon's given and I like having the insurance policy of both. Obviously if somebody makes a good trade offer you listen, but not forcing anything.

And more qualify and trade with Murray than sign and trade if it comes to it.

IF it weren't for the impending expansion draft that might be an option. But if you go into next season with the same predicament you're kinda playing with fire. IF both are playing well (relatively speaking) we'll likely lose one of them to Seattle. Other teams will know we could possibly lose one or the other for nothing. Which could compromise our leverage and hurt our return quite a bit. That wouldn't be an issue if such a move was made THIS summer however.

 

[Pittsburgh1776]

He's been in the league for three and a bit seasons, been above-average in two and a bit of them, played 183 games (28th most in this period), and has the joint 21st best save percentage out of the 50 goalies to have played a 100 or more games since 15-16. And had a strong save percentage last season.

If Murray's not established, then there's only about 20-odd goalies in the league who are.

He has definitely not been above average in “two and bit seasons.” Sorry. Even two very solid seasons are not enough to be an established player in this league. Some people seem to want to frame this debate by giving Murray credentials he doesn’t have yet. Again, he did great things over a short period of time to win two Cups. He earned that. And I think he can get to that level again. But there is no way he deserves anything like the money people are throwing around here. To get that money he has to show consistency over years. He has to show he isn’t injury prone over years. He has to show he can play a high level for more than a handful of games at the end of the season. 7-8M is elite, proven money. Up to this point that is not Murray.

 

[The Old Master]

IF it weren't for the impending expansion draft that might be an option. But if you go into next season with the same predicament you're kinda playing with fire. IF both are playing well (relatively speaking) we'll likely lose one of them to Seattle. Other teams will know we could possibly lose one or the other for nothing. Which could compromise our leverage and hurt our return quite a bit. That wouldn't be an issue if such a move was made THIS summer however.

and this years draft is deeper....just say'en

 

[The Old Master]

Yeah, those goalie trades for pots of gold are just so frequent we can easily score on it.

If we move Murray, I’d be surprised if he returns much more than a 1st if that.

a first this year could be really big. if you can believe what they are saying about this years draft.

 

[Empoleon8771]

All I know is that my ignore list is being filled up to the brim because of this Murray discussion, because some of you guys aren't even worth engaging with

It’s going to be a summer thing for sure. Nothing will happen in season but it doesn’t look that great for Murray especially if he wants to get paid.

The last 3 seasons including this one there has been 54 goalies play more than 3000 minutes and more than 5o games.

Murray 121 games
32nd in SV%
33rd in GAA
37th in xGA
54th average distance of goals (bigger distance lower the rank)

Last 2 years: .912 save%, within +/- .002 of Gibson, Price, Fleury, Varlamov, Dubnyk and Holtby
Last 4 years: .914 save%, within +/- .002 of Fleury, Price, Markstrom, Varlamov, Lundqvist and Holtby

Pointing out Murray has a .910 save% over the last 3 years, which is hardly a reason for concern, paints a different picture than "he's 32nd in save% behind James Reimer". For comparison, Holtby is 36th and Price is 34th in save% in the sample size you posted, but no one is saying that James Reimer is a better goalie than they are.

Matt Murray is an established goalie? In what league? He’s not some veteran who has proven himself over years. He had two short runs and that is all. So again, I’m laughing at some of these potential money deals where he gets anything north of 6.5M. If we’re going off the last two years, he isn’t worth more than 4M.

Matt Murray has the same exact save% in the last 2, 3 and 4 years as guys like Price, Holtby and Fleury. But yeah, hE's NoT eStAbLiShEd or something.

 

[EightyOne]

I mean, Murray isn't bringing gold back.

There's not much value in tendies.

Likely not a good idea to move him, even if you want to move him ASAP

 

[ncm7772]

So, correct me if I’m wrong - a few people think Murray isn’t established? Ok. Then these SAME people are saying that Jarry IS established?

Mind = blown

Hoping I just skimmed too fast.

JFC, what the hell am I doing on this site on Xmas eve........

 

[ChaosAgent]

I mean, Murray isn't bringing gold back.

There's not much value in tendies.

Likely not a good idea to move him, even if you want to move him ASAP

Don't move him this year. But if he wants a penny north of $5M/season move him this offseason.

You said it yourself: not much value in tendies.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I mean, Murray isn't bringing gold back.

There's not much value in tendies.

Which is exactly why I don't get why people try to argue that they should trade him this off-season because "if you trade him before the expansion draft, you'll get less value". At best, you're getting about a mid-1st for Murray with him playing well. Teams just aren't lacking goaltending or goaltending prospects anymore, goaltending is as good and deep as it has been in a long time.

It's why I was perfectly happy to not get anything back for Fleury and just lose him in the expansion draft. If the choice was to get a 2nd in a trade and lose Rust or lose Fleury, I'm losing Fleury 100% of the time. If Murray's in a similar position in a year, where you can't really get a great return for him, just let him be the expansion draft casualty.

Don't move him this year. But if he wants a penny north of $5M/season move him this offseason.

You said it yourself: not much value in tendies.

Why is that arbitrary cutoff the point where you'd tell Murray no? Why is $5 million the absolute maximum but $6 million isn't okay?

 

[Turin]

Don’t overpay Murray. Don’t give up on him either if he’ll take a smaller contract. Pretty simple. Just as he’s bad this year, he could be good next. Or the next five. And Jarry could be bad next year. Stupid goalies.