Salary Cap: Pittsburgh Penguins Salary Cap: The Trades We'd Make Before The Play Offs

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I admit to not knowing nearly enough about the draft, anymore.

But to me... the hype this kid is getting must be pretty real if he's a wing. Usually such consistently high praise and desirability is assigned to centers.

I dunno. I feel like farting around with trading the 1st overall is getting too cute... if they actually win it. They won't so whatever.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I stand by my prediction. Lafreniere will produce and become about on par with an Eichel level player. Obviously slight differences in overall impact due to the position they play, but ultimately I think Lafreniere will be a 55+ point player immediately and jump up to close to 70 point player by Year 2. I don't think any of the other picks will reach that status within the first two years after the draft. Maybe in time, but considering the Pens' window because of Crosby and Malkin's age, I think Lafreniere will reach that "ceiling" a lot sooner.

And I think if you think he's only on Hall's level, you haven't seen him play enough. First and foremost he has something that Hall kind of lacks (relatively speaking for an elite player) and that's vision/high end hockey IQ. Hall's more of a high end tools, average IQ type player. Lafreniere not only has high end skills, but he also sees the game the same way the truly elite do.

The only reason Lafreniere's not talked about on par with guys like Matthews/Eichel/etc. in terms of prospects, it's because he plays the wing. If he was a natural center, he'd get the same hype as them as prospects.

I think I'm way higher on Stutzle and Drysdale than you are, so agree to disagree I suppose. I feel like Stutzle is on par with Pettersson, who had 66 points in 71 games as a rookie in his draft+1 year. Drysdale is harder to make a comparison on, I don't think he's Makar level but I don't think he's much worse.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I admit to not knowing nearly enough about the draft, anymore.

But to me... the hype this kid is getting must be pretty real if he's a wing. Usually such consistently high praise and desirability is assigned to centers.

I dunno. I feel like farting around with trading the 1st overall is getting too cute... if they actually win it. They won't so whatever.

To be honest, the bolded is exactly what it is. If you can get the consensus #1 player, who is the clear front runner for 1st overall for a reason, you do it. It would be like getting fancy in Crosby's draft year by saying "yeah but we could add depth by picking Bobby Ryan and Anze Kopitar by dealing Crosby".

Note: not saying Lafreniere is on Crosby's level, but that's the kind of "risk" it would be. Downgrading a potential franchise player for two very good players.

 

[Empoleon8771]

To be honest, the bolded is exactly what it is. If you can get the consensus #1 player, who is the clear front runner for 1st overall for a reason, you do it. It would be like getting fancy in Crosby's draft year by saying "yeah but we could add depth by picking Bobby Ryan and Anze Kopitar by dealing Crosby".

Note: not saying Lafreniere is on Crosby's level, but that's the kind of "risk" it would be. Downgrading a potential franchise player for two very good players.

You're underrating Stutzle and Drysdale if you think they're only "two potential very good players".

If you're right on Lafreniere being a potential Eichel, that deal is trading a potential Eichel for a potential Pettersson and a potential Pietrangelo. Aka one potential elite franchise player for 2 not as good, but still potential elite franchise players.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

You're underrating Stutzle and Drysdale if you think they're only "two potential very good players"

How? If Stutzle has the same kind of career as Kopitar, he'd have fully lived up to his projections.

The Ryan thing was more about where he was drafted than a direct comparison to Drysdale, given they don't even play the same position.

 

[Empoleon8771]

How? If Stutzle has the same kind of career as Kopitar, he'd have fully lived up to his projections.

The Ryan thing was more about where he was drafted than a direct comparison to Drysdale, given they don't even play the same position.

No, you called it one franchise player for 2 very good players. The deal is actually one almost guaranteed franchise player for 2 players with franchise upside, but more risk that they don't meet that potential. All 3 players have franchise player potential.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

No, you called it one franchise player for 2 very good players. The deal is actually one almost guaranteed franchise player for 2 players with franchise upside, but more risk that they don't meet that potential.

Then you're right, agree to disagree because I don't think Drysdale, in particular, has franchise potential. Very good defenseman potential, but I don't think he'll be consistently a Top 5-10 defender in hockey.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

To be honest, the bolded is exactly what it is. If you can get the consensus #1 player, who is the clear front runner for 1st overall for a reason, you do it. It would be like getting fancy in Crosby's draft year by saying "yeah but we could add depth by picking Bobby Ryan and Anze Kopitar by dealing Crosby".

Note: not saying Lafreniere is on Crosby's level, but that's the kind of "risk" it would be. Downgrading a potential franchise player for two very good players.

Again... I have to defer to those who know better than I at this point. But I feel like this team already has done plenty of shit simply for the sake of doing it and acting like they know better than everyone else the last few years so maybe just take the huge opportunity if it falls in your lap and keep it simple.

 

[Peat]

How? If Stutzle has the same kind of career as Kopitar, he'd have fully lived up to his projections.

The Ryan thing was more about where he was drafted than a direct comparison to Drysdale, given they don't even play the same position.

As me and others have said a few times, the Ryan thing is incredibly pertinent because if you pick the two best players available at 3OA + 5OA it's normally going to be better than 1OA, but how often do the scouts get it that right?

Also my understanding is that Stutzle's projection is a little unclear because of his steep upwards trajectory and the fact we don't really have a lot of comparables for guys doing what he did in the DEL at his age. I guess Kopitar is probably a fair outcome, but there's still a little uncertainty about just how big an attacking influence he can be.

Again... I have to defer to those who know better than I at this point. But I feel like this team already has done plenty of shit simply for the sake of doing it and acting like they know better than everyone else the last few years so maybe just take the huge opportunity if it falls in your lap and keep it simple.

It's irresistible to talk about (well, for me) but it'd be one hell of a gamble.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Then you're right, agree to disagree because I don't think Drysdale, in particular, has franchise potential. Very good defenseman potential, but I don't think he'll be consistently a Top 5-10 defender in hockey.

I mean, Wheeler is saying that he's better than Byram and Byram has franchise D potential as well, so I don't know what to tell you. Wheeler says he's comparable to Hughes here:

It feels unjust to have Drysdale, who is better than last year’s top defenseman (Bowen Byram, fourth overall in 2019 to the Avalanche) at the same age, ranked eighth here. He’s the best defenseman in the draft by a wide margin and that will mean that he (rightfully so) gets picked higher than this. I wouldn’t fault a team for taking him at No. 3. He’s that good. Drysdale is one of the smoothest-skating draft-eligible defensemen in recent memory (right up there with Quinn Hughes), with light, almost-floating edge work and perfect balance through his core when he’s on his toes or his heals, moving in any direction. He will make a great skating coach when his career is over — and he’ll be a model for others in the meantime. He’s also extremely poised with the puck on his stick, which helps him evade pressure, create exits and entries with his feet, or attack off of the blue line to use his dangerous wrist shot (his slapshot could use some work and some more strength)

 

[CallArnoldSlick]

No, you called it one franchise player for 2 very good players. The deal is actually one almost guaranteed franchise player for 2 players with franchise upside, but more risk that they don't meet that potential. All 3 players have franchise player potential.

My problem with trading for 3/5 would be that it is rare for both those picks to live up to the draft day hype. Top 5 picks always have "franchise player potential" prior to the draft and it just doesn't always work out for the 3, 4 or 5 players. Those picks were great in 2017, but that was the only year since 2006 in which the 3 and 5 picks both lived up to their draft day expectations and became star players. I mean, Drouin and Lindholm were fine for 2013 and Duchene and Schenn were fine in 2009, but neither is MacKinnon or Tavares. Odds are one of the picks would pan out, the other won't. That's just not worth the basically risk free #1 overall. I don't think it's worth it even if they both do pan out.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Also also... I don't really trust these yutzes to negotiate a high profile draft day trade, anyway. JR and co. would probably pry some dingdong off the other team as the even-up for trading firsts or something equally deranged.

 

[dogthateats]

I think prospects are too much of a crapshoot. There has been many instances where prospects were supposed to be amazing and they become tweeners, average, or not even make it to the NHL.

 

[Empoleon8771]

My problem with trading for 3/5 would be that it is rare for both those picks to live up to the draft day hype. Top 5 picks always have "franchise player potential" prior to the draft and it just doesn't always work out for the 3, 4 or 5 players. Those picks were great in 2017, but that was the only year since 2006 in which the 3 and 5 picks both lived up to their draft day expectations and became star players. I mean, Drouin and Lindholm were fine for 2013 and Duchene and Schenn were fine in 2009, but neither is MacKinnon or Tavares. Odds are one of the picks would pan out, the other won't. That's just not worth the basically risk free #1 overall. I don't think it's worth it even if they both do pan out.

I think scouting and developing is way better today than it was in 2010, though. It's also way too early to say guys from the 2017-2019 drafts didn't hit their potential. The Penguins would be getting a bad draw if only one of those two prospects hit, that's not the most likely outcome. The most likely outcome is that the Penguins get 2 top-6 forwards or top-4 D out of the picks.

 

[Gurglesons]

I mean, Wheeler is saying that he's better than Byram and Byram has franchise D potential as well, so I don't know what to tell you. Wheeler says he's comparable to Hughes here:

Byram has been incredibly overrated.

 

[MayorofWBS]

Weird thing is...with all this chomping at the bit on this board insisting that Ottawa and Dorion are eager to trade up for 1 OA, there's just a single post on the Ottawa board suggesting it since like Wednesday. I guess we have a better pulse on what the Senators are up to on this board. Ottawa's board is trying to throw us all off by mostly talking about getting their Isles pick moved up to mid-round. I'm glad we are not falling for their tricks.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Byram has been incredibly overrated.

Even if that's true, that doesn't override that Drysdale is compared to Hughes there.

 

[Peat]

I mean, Wheeler is saying that he's better than Byram and Byram has franchise D potential as well, so I don't know what to tell you. Wheeler says he's comparable to Hughes here:

By comparison, HockeyProspect.com thinks he's the 12th best guy here - behind Sanderson and Schneider as dmen - and the NHL scout quotes have quite a split. They don't think he'll be a 1PP guy.

There'd be some development work to be done with Drysdale to be sure.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I mean, Wheeler is saying that he's better than Byram and Byram has franchise D potential as well, so I don't know what to tell you. Wheeler says he's comparable to Hughes here:

His comparison to Hughes was their skating ability. In any case, what has Byram proven? He's also all "potential" at this point. If you had the choice between Eichel and Byram in a draft, would you take Byram?

I just feel like you're overselling these guys while underselling the glowing praise for Lafreniere.

I mean, technically it's possible that whoever is drafted at #3 and #5 will be better than #1. But how often does that happen? How many times would you take the guys drafted at #3 and #5 over the guy drafted #1 that year? The only time I can think of in recent memory is Draisaitl over Ekblad, but that was a year where there was no clear cut consensus #1. Ekblad, Draisaitl, Bennett and Reinhart were all jockeying for that top spot with none of them having a clear edge (at the time).

 

[Gurglesons]

Even if that's true, that doesn't override that Drysdale is compared to Hughes there.

Prospect writes compare prospects to players all the time. Drysdale would be a nice piece, but @Sidney the Kidney is right. The safe move is taking Laf and we likely regret moving it if we get it.

I am curious who they move to RW if we do take him..

 

[Empoleon8771]

His comparison to Hughes was their skating ability. In any case, what has Byram proven? He's also all "potential" at this point. If you had the choice between Eichel and Byram in a draft, would you take Byram?

I just feel like you're overselling these guys while underselling the glowing praise for Lafreniere.

I mean, technically it's possible that whoever is drafted at #3 and #5 will be better than #1. But how often does that happen? How many times would you take the guys drafted at #3 and #5 over the guy drafted #1 that year? The only time I can think of in recent memory is Draisaitl over Ekblad, but that was a year where there was no clear cut consensus #1. Ekblad, Draisaitl, Bennett and Reinhart were all jockeying for that top spot with none of them having a clear edge (at the time).

Neither guy selected at #3 or #5 has to be better than Lafreniere for that deal to be worth it. You're better off with getting both Pettersson and Heiskanen than you are with getting 1 Eichel. Eichel is the best player there, but you're better off with 2 franchise players than 1 better franchise player.

 

[T1K]

Lol @ the suggestion of trading the 1st pick. If we are gifted Lafreniere, we are absolutely drafting him and slotting him into RW1 with Sid.

 

[BoysofWinter66871]

I don’t think we can move JJ but I don’t think it will matter. He’s not going to look good with a struggling Schultz but with an astute FA signing or a well-developed POJ, and limited minutes, he’ll be fine. When the team was playing good defensively as a 5 man unit earlier in the season he looked fine too.

We need to, and should be able to, move Bjugstad. Ottawa could take him + Riikola just to reach the cap floor and with the idea that they could then flip him at the deadline for a mid pick if he’s even still mediocre.

Finally not a bad take. Some folks just have an axe to grind. People blaming JJ for our series loss are delusional. Forwards played like they got kneecapped and disarmed and people want to blame the D or goaltender? What have they been watching the last 15 years?

 

[Empoleon8771]

Lol @ the suggestion of trading the 1st pick. If we are gifted Lafreniere, we are absolutely drafting him and slotting him into RW1 with Sid.

If Lafreniere says he won't have a problem playing RW, I agree. If Lafreniere played a huge position of need for the Penguins, this wouldn't even be a discussion.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Neither guy selected at #3 or #5 has to be better than Lafreniere for that deal to be worth it. You're better off with getting both Pettersson and Heiskanen than you are with getting 1 Eichel.

But you picked two extreme examples at that spot. Also, one could argue Pettersson has the same or more upside than Eichel. So you're not really doing a "superior player for 2 players just slightly under him" thing.

It would be closer (albeit an extreme example) if you would pick Marner and Provorov over McDavid in their draft year. One clearly superior (at present time) prospect for two guys who also show elite potential, but not quite on his level. Would you do that?