Salary Cap: Pittsburgh Penguins Salary Cap: The Trades We'd Make Before The Play Offs

[Empoleon8771]

The more that I think about it, the more I'd be intrigued with doing #1 for #3 and #5 if Ottawa also takes JJ's contract. If you do that, you still get 2 great young players and you get out of JJ's contract, which allows you to then target actual returns for Murray and McCann. The #1 pick could change the absolute dynamics of this off-season, not because of Lafreniere but because it allows the Penguins to kill like 5 birds with 1 stone.

If you don't get the #1 pick, you'll have to sink either Murray or McCann to move JJ. You can do the McCann for Montour swap, but then you have to use Murray to dump JJ's contract and I'm not sold that's going to be easy.

 

[Kristopher Letang]

The more that I think about it, the more I'd be intrigued with doing #1 for #3 and #5 if Ottawa also takes JJ's contract. If you do that, you still get 2 great young players and you get out of JJ's contract, which allows you to then target actual returns for Murray and McCann. The #1 pick could change the absolute dynamics of this off-season, not because of Lafreniere but because it allows the Penguins to kill like 5 birds with 1 stone.

If you don't get the #1 pick, you'll have to sink either Murray or McCann to move JJ. You can do the McCann for Montour swap, but then you have to use Murray to dump JJ's contract and I'm not sold that's going to be easy.

No one is making that trade imo. It’s too risky

 

[Gurglesons]

Another deal I think would be a good move. Rust and Pettersson or POJ for Darnell Nurse.

 

[Empoleon8771]

No one is making that trade imo. It’s too risky

Nah, no way. The Senators are getting their next franchise superstar that they can build around, and the Penguins instantly restock their prospect pool with 2 elite prospects and get out of JJ's contract. Not to mention that Lafreniere plays the 2 positions the Penguins don't need, C and LW.

The Senators would then have Lafreniere, Tkachuk, Brannstrom and Chabot as their core to build around, and they'll also have a ton of young players and prospects to complement those players.

 

[Peat]

Another deal I think would be a good move. Rust and Pettersson or POJ for Darnell Nurse.

That seems like an overpayment - have I not being paying attention?

 

[Gurglesons]

That seems like an overpayment - have I not being paying attention?

Likely a slight over payment on our end, but I think Petts moving would be for cap purposes.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

Random target: If the Penguins can somehow shed some contracts (namely Bjugstad and Johnson), I wonder if they could find enough cap space to go after Joel Edmundson from Carolina. He's a UFA. He's more of a stay-at-home defenseman, so he may not break the bank. But he was a big piece of the Blues' playoff run and was a stabilizing force for the Canes, who have to make some decisions on their blueline with Van Riemsdyk, Fleury, and Vatanen all due new contracts along with Edmundson.

If the Pens could, I'd sign Edmundson and pair him with Pierre-Oliver Joseph, with Edmundson and Dumoulin pairing up for some heavy defensive zone starts or situations.

 

[The Great Mighty Poo]

The only reason I wouldn't sign him is because he's terrible

And the falling down more then a drunken monkey in a space helmet thing.

 

[Shrimper]

The more that I think about it, the more I'd be intrigued with doing #1 for #3 and #5 if Ottawa also takes JJ's contract. If you do that, you still get 2 great young players and you get out of JJ's contract, which allows you to then target actual returns for Murray and McCann. The #1 pick could change the absolute dynamics of this off-season, not because of Lafreniere but because it allows the Penguins to kill like 5 birds with 1 stone.

If you don't get the #1 pick, you'll have to sink either Murray or McCann to move JJ. You can do the McCann for Montour swap, but then you have to use Murray to dump JJ's contract and I'm not sold that's going to be easy.

I'd rather buyout JJ than lower Murray's price with him.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

McCann's value is in being able to convince a team to take JJ off of our hands.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I'd rather buyout JJ than lower Murray's price with him.

I don't think the Penguins have ever bought out a player, and I'd much rather get a worse pick over 6 years of dead cap space.

 

[Gurglesons]

Random target: If the Penguins can somehow shed some contracts (namely Bjugstad and Johnson), I wonder if they could find enough cap space to go after Joel Edmundson from Carolina. He's a UFA. He's more of a stay-at-home defenseman, so he may not break the bank. But he was a big piece of the Blues' playoff run and was a stabilizing force for the Canes, who have to make some decisions on their blueline with Van Riemsdyk, Fleury, and Vatanen all due new contracts along with Edmundson.

If the Pens could, I'd sign Edmundson and pair him with Pierre-Oliver Joseph, with Edmundson and Dumoulin pairing up for some heavy defensive zone starts or situations.

Please don’t.

 

[Jacob]

I don’t think we can move JJ but I don’t think it will matter. He’s not going to look good with a struggling Schultz but with an astute FA signing or a well-developed POJ, and limited minutes, he’ll be fine. When the team was playing good defensively as a 5 man unit earlier in the season he looked fine too.

We need to, and should be able to, move Bjugstad. Ottawa could take him + Riikola just to reach the cap floor and with the idea that they could then flip him at the deadline for a mid pick if he’s even still mediocre.

 

[Gurglesons]

I don’t think we can move JJ but I don’t think it will matter. He’s not going to look good with a struggling Schultz but with an astute FA signing or a well-developed POJ, and limited minutes, he’ll be fine. When the team was playing good defensively as a 5 man unit earlier in the season he looked fine too.

We need to, and should be able to, move Bjugstad. Ottawa could take him + Riikola just to reach the cap floor and with the idea that they could then flip him at the deadline for a mid pick if he’s even still mediocre.

I see Ottawa pulling a Namestikov with Bjugstad as well.

I disagree with your JJ assessment. He is a huge reason we have not won a playoff game in two years.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I think it's theoretically possible to "hide" JJ inside a much better D corps and while scratching him for like 40 games and refusing to play him one second in the playoffs unless it was an absolute emergency.

But why? And will whoever is coaching actually DO that?

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

A buyout is not a realistic finale to the JJ saga. You either sacrifice a decent pick or player to deal him, or you accept an equally terrible player in return for him under the pretense that you'll have an easier time sheltering him in the lineup. Now, it's not much easier to shelter a player than the bottom pairing blueliner, so odds are not great.

 

[EVGENIMERLIN]

The more that I think about it, the more I'd be intrigued with doing #1 for #3 and #5 if Ottawa also takes JJ's contract. If you do that, you still get 2 great young players and you get out of JJ's contract, which allows you to then target actual returns for Murray and McCann. The #1 pick could change the absolute dynamics of this off-season, not because of Lafreniere but because it allows the Penguins to kill like 5 birds with 1 stone.

If you don't get the #1 pick, you'll have to sink either Murray or McCann to move JJ. You can do the McCann for Montour swap, but then you have to use Murray to dump JJ's contract and I'm not sold that's going to be easy.

It 100% changes everything if we draft him or we trade the pick. They either draft an incredible winger prospect who slides in right away and gives us the best top 6 in the NHL, or we trade it and re-tool gaining some important assets that we really need.

Either way, if we get #1 overall it is a big big big win for this franchise.

 

[Peat]

Likely a slight over payment on our end, but I think Petts moving would be for cap purposes.

Suits our cap maybe but I'm not sure it suits theirs.

Dunno. Don't know Nurse well enough to know how I feel about this. Could make RW a bit of a hole for us, even if Rust probably isn't so magnificent next season.

I don’t think we can move JJ but I don’t think it will matter. He’s not going to look good with a struggling Schultz but with an astute FA signing or a well-developed POJ, and limited minutes, he’ll be fine. When the team was playing good defensively as a 5 man unit earlier in the season he looked fine too.

We need to, and should be able to, move Bjugstad. Ottawa could take him + Riikola just to reach the cap floor and with the idea that they could then flip him at the deadline for a mid pick if he’s even still mediocre.

You can do that with JJ with everyone fit and a wise coach but it comes with the issue of what happens whenever there's injuries. There will be injuries. Next thing you know JJ is in the top 4 and everything's going sideways. I just want him gone so I no longer have to fear that. A player who's only fine when everything's going their way doesn't really belong on a good team's roster.

I don't think Ottawa are interested in Bjugstad though, because his salary is bigger than his cap hit.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Nah, no way. The Senators are getting their next franchise superstar that they can build around, and the Penguins instantly restock their prospect pool with 2 elite prospects and get out of JJ's contract. Not to mention that Lafreniere plays the 2 positions the Penguins don't need, C and LW.

The Senators would then have Lafreniere, Tkachuk, Brannstrom and Chabot as their core to build around, and they'll also have a ton of young players and prospects to complement those players.

I'm not sure you're taking into account how good Lafreniere is going to be.

I also think you have to factor in NHL-readiness. Lafreniere likely steps into the NHL next season and produces as a top 6 winger for the cap hit of under $1 million. Anyone drafted at #3 or #5 likely don't make that kind of impact for another 2 or 3 seasons, which would mean Crosby and Malkin are 35/36 by the time those picks reap benefit, as opposed to immediately.

He's going to be a special talent, but it seems like people are convinced he's only going to be Hall/RNH level and are quick to pass on him just to unload Johnson. IMO, if Johnson is that big of an issue (and he is), you buy him out or you use Murray/McCann as the sweetener while keeping Lafreniere.

 

[chethejet]

If Pens get lucky, I certainly consider a boatload of either picks or prospects for him. Pens need to rebuild the system and free up cap space as well. Murray has to go and JJ can be moved with a added asset.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Assuming they lose the lottery:

1. McCann to Buffalo for Montour, re-sign Montour for 3 years at $3.5 million AAV
2. Murray and JJ (with salary retained to make it work) to Ottawa for Brown and Nilsson, re-sign Brown for 4 years at $3.5 million AAV
3. Hornqvist to Nashville for Sissons
4. Bjugstad to Edmonton for Russell (this deal is to solely give POJ more time before rushing him into the NHL)
5. Re-sign Sheary for 2 years at $2.5 million (if you can come up with a better playmaking 3rd line RW, I'm all ears but I can't think of anyone), Simon for 1 year at $1 million, Lafferty for 2 years at $800k and Jarry for 2 years at $2.5 million

Guentel-Crosby-Brown
Zucker-Malkin-Rust
Poulin-Blueger-Sheary
ZAR-Sissons-Tanev
Lafferty-Simon

Dumoulin-Marino
Pettersson-Letang
Russell-Montour
Ruhwedel

Jarry-Nilsson

This lineup falls at $79.1 million plus whatever money you're retaining on JJ. You can cut some money here by trying to get someone cheaper than Russell in a swap for Bjugstad, paying more to not retain on JJ, signing a different playmaking winger than Sheary for less money or trying to flip Nilsson to someone else.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I'm not sure you're taking into account how good Lafreniere is going to be.

I also think you have to factor in NHL-readiness. Lafreniere likely steps into the NHL next season and produces as a top 6 winger for the cap hit of under $1 million. Anyone drafted at #3 or #5 likely don't make that kind of impact for another 2 or 3 seasons, which would mean Crosby and Malkin are 35/36 by the time those picks reap benefit, as opposed to immediately.

He's going to be a special talent, but it seems like people are convinced he's only going to be Hall/RNH level and are quick to pass on him just to unload Johnson. IMO, if Johnson is that big of an issue (and he is), you buy him out or you use Murray/McCann as the sweetener while keeping Lafreniere.

This isn't true. To say that it's "likely" that someone drafted at #3 doesn't make a top-6 F or top-4 D impact for another 2 or 3 years is not based on actual draft results. You're simultaneously overrating Lafreniere, who I definitely think only has Hall-caliber upside, and underrating guys like Stutzle and Drysdale.

I'm also not saying "use the #1 pick to dump Johnson", acting like that's the primary part of that deal isn't true. That's just a sweetener on top of the #3 and #5 pick.

 

[EVGENIMERLIN]

Random target: If the Penguins can somehow shed some contracts (namely Bjugstad and Johnson), I wonder if they could find enough cap space to go after Joel Edmundson from Carolina. He's a UFA. He's more of a stay-at-home defenseman, so he may not break the bank. But he was a big piece of the Blues' playoff run and was a stabilizing force for the Canes, who have to make some decisions on their blueline with Van Riemsdyk, Fleury, and Vatanen all due new contracts along with Edmundson.

If the Pens could, I'd sign Edmundson and pair him with Pierre-Oliver Joseph, with Edmundson and Dumoulin pairing up for some heavy defensive zone starts or situations.

I'd like to have here in our bottom 6. He's solid, not crazy expensive, and only 27

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

This isn't true. To say that it's "likely" that someone drafted at #3 doesn't make a top-6 F or top-4 D impact for another 2 or 3 years is not based on actual draft results. You're simultaneously overrating Lafreniere, who I definitely think only has Hall-caliber upside, and underrating guys like Stutzle and Drysdale.

I'm also not saying "use the #1 pick to dump Johnson", acting like that's the primary part of that deal isn't true. That's just a sweetener on top of the #3 and #5 pick.

I stand by my prediction. Lafreniere will produce and become about on par with an Eichel level player. Obviously slight differences in overall impact due to the position they play, but ultimately I think Lafreniere will be a 55+ point player immediately and jump up to close to 70 point player by Year 2. I don't think any of the other picks will reach that status within the first two years after the draft. Maybe in time, but considering the Pens' window because of Crosby and Malkin's age, I think Lafreniere will reach that "ceiling" a lot sooner.

And I think if you think he's only on Hall's level, you haven't seen him play enough. First and foremost he has something that Hall kind of lacks (relatively speaking for an elite player) and that's vision/high end hockey IQ. Hall's more of a high end tools, average IQ type player. Lafreniere not only has high end skills, but he also sees the game the same way the truly elite do.

The only reason Lafreniere's not talked about on par with guys like Matthews/Eichel/etc. in terms of prospects, it's because he plays the wing. If he was a natural center, he'd get the same hype as them as prospects.

 

[Peat]

Looking at 3OAs over the last few...

Dach - Straight in
Kotkaniemi - Straight in
Heiskanen - In by D+1
Dubois - In by D+1
Strome - In by D+3
Draisaitl - In by D+1

Kotkaniemi is the only straight in who's not impact by D+1

Stutzle and Byfield are real good by most accounts. Lafreniere is a tier above now, and maybe always will, and might be the best winger since Ovie - feel like he should be better than Hall, as the attacking reports sound similar but the defensive one is a lot different. But Stutzle/Byfield are probably D+1 impacts and they've got shots at being better than Lafreniere.

edit: maybe underplaying the IQ.

In any case... long run, I'd love to do the 3OA + 5OA gamble, but the Lafreniere certainty and immediacy, I just can't see past it.

Getting rid of JJ is a tempting scale tipper though.