@Peat and whoever else is curious:
I attempted to make my own ranking system of prospects. They're rated on their potential and readiness (weighted 66/33). Potential is based on what I see as their ceiling and as their floor. The readiness is based on how they perform at the NHL, AHL, and all other leagues. Performance success at the NHL level is worth more than the AHL. And performance success at the AHL level is worth more than the other leagues.
This is still a work in progress, but here's how my calculations compare to my latest "feelings" list that's in the Prospect #1 Poll thread:
Here's the list just based on how the calculations rank their potential (for comparison, McDavid coming out of Erie would be ranked at 9.40):[TBODY] [/TBODY]
rank feels calcs delta [calcs rating] 1 poj poj - 54.83 2 poulin poulin - 54.28 3 doc clang clang +13 51.38 4 hallander lindberg lindberg +3 51.38 5 zoho zoho - 50.00 6 legare doc doc -3 49.50 7 lindberg lee lee +8 49.00 8 gruden blomqvist blomqvist +9 48.83 9 puustinen puustinen - 48.83 10 angello broz broz +2 48.83 11 bjorkqvist bjorkqvist - 40.56 12 broz gruden gruden -4 40.00 13 bellerive reilly reilly +1 40.00 14 reilly angello angello -4 40.00 15 lee hallander hallander -11 39.17 16 clang legare legare -10 36.17 17 blomqvist bellerive bellerive -4 36.00 18 maniscalco maniscalco - 32.89 19 dorio dorio - 32.56 20 svejk svejk - 30.63 21 drozg drozg - 28.22
And how the calculations rank their readiness (I think Lee is way too high):[TBODY] [/TBODY]
rank name p weight 1 poulin s 6.62 2 clang c 5.80 3 lindberg f 5.80 4 blomqvist j 5.80 5 puustinen v 5.80 6 broz t 5.80 7 lee c 4.60 8 joseph po 4.35 9 oconnor d 4.35 10 hallander p 4.35 11 bjorkqvist k 4.13 12 zohorna r 3.90 13 gruden j 3.90 14 reilly w 3.90 15 legare n 3.90 16 maniscalco j 3.53 17 drozg j 3.53 18 svejkovsky l 3.45 19 angello 3.00 20 bellerive j 3.00 21 dorio a 2.63
Like I said, still a work in progress. There's clearly issues, mostly with how I'm calculating the readiness. The numbers I assigned players for ceiling, floor, performance success, and the weights were purely empirical and I'd like to change that somehow.[TBODY] [/TBODY]
rank name r weight 1 joseph po 7.75 2 zohorna r 7.20 3 oconnor d 6.15 4 angello 6.00 5 lee c 5.50 6 bellerive j 4.80 7 dorio a 4.50 8 gruden j 4.20 9 reilly w 4.20 10 bjorkqvist k 3.90 11 clang c 3.81 12 lindberg f 3.81 13 poulin s 3.05 14 blomqvist j 3.05 15 puustinen v 3.05 16 broz t 3.05 17 hallander p 3.05 18 legare n 3.05 19 maniscalco j 2.80 20 svejkovsky l 2.29 21 drozg j 1.40
Pronman has us last in his prospect pool rankings. Doesn't like our guys skating. 22 and under removes a few of our prospects from the ranking.
Pronman's #1 was POJ, who he lists as "average" skating and "below average" puck skills?
Honestly, Pronman's track record in recent years seems to be getting worse and worse. I can buy the Penguins prospect pool is bad and their top guys (namely Poulin and Legare) have concerns with their skating, but listing POJ's skating as "average" just makes me think that Pronman's evaluations of players is bad.
I'm convinced like 95% of these dudes are just regular schmucks like us with no real clue, but somehow managed to snowball into a following on twitter so their opinions are suddenly respected.
I'm nothing if not an optimist.I'm 95% convinced they're sub-regular schmucks.
there is a reason teams hire scouts instead of just reading blogs. #vote riikyI'm convinced like 95% of these dudes are just regular schmucks like us with no real clue, but somehow managed to snowball into a following on twitter so their opinions are suddenly respected.
Pronman's #1 was POJ, who he lists as "average" skating and "below average" puck skills?
Honestly, Pronman's track record in recent years seems to be getting worse and worse. I can buy the Penguins prospect pool is bad and their top guys (namely Poulin and Legare) have concerns with their skating, but listing POJ's skating as "average" just makes me think that Pronman's evaluations of players is bad.
Haters gonna Hate!Pronman's #1 was POJ, who he lists as "average" skating and "below average" puck skills?
Honestly, Pronman's track record in recent years seems to be getting worse and worse. I can buy the Penguins prospect pool is bad and their top guys (namely Poulin and Legare) have concerns with their skating, but listing POJ's skating as "average" just makes me think that Pronman's evaluations of players is bad.
It feels weird to criticize POJ as at worst a 3rd pairing guy, when getting any prospect to a near-guaranteed NHL role is frankly huge.
Also, when was POJ's skating average? Like average in the NHL or average compared to Letang and Matheson? I am very confused.
You have to look at these ratings in comparison to other prospect pools. Having a guy that is not a sure fire top pair D versus having players like Byram or Ty Smith makes it easy to understand why POJ is evaluated like he is.
I mean, sure, but there's lots of sure-fire Top D guys that never ever even make it to 3rd pairing or are terrible when they're used above there. Ceci, for example. Or Morrow. Or Pouliot. Or.... shudder... JMFJ.
But again, why does POJ only have average skating and puck moving?
Because that’s what his larger sample size shows versus him having 5 good NHL games?
I'm sorry, how does his sample size show average skating, for example? Or are we talking about his ceiling?