Jacob
as seen on TV
- Feb 27, 2002
- 49,450
- 25,010
Can’t wait until Poulin looks meh in a 9 game call-up and folks give up on him.
Riikola downvotes this comment because he rather be making NHL money eating natchos over AHL money.It’s definitely the best group of prospects they’ve had in a while, with their typical handful of AHL vets. I’d guess Riikola & Ruhwedel are down if they’re not traded or claimed on waivers.
He’s on a one way contract so he’s gonna make his 1 million no matter where he plays.Riikola downvotes this comment because he rather be making NHL money eating natchos over AHL money.
Ah my bad. I downvote my own comment.He’s on a one way contract so he’s gonna make his 1 million no matter where he plays.
What are the chances Wilkes is in contention for a Calder Cup this year?
Roster sure looks stacked compared to the last several years, with only defensive depth and Lindberg's readiness as real question marks (and I am not concerned about Lindberg personally)
Broz projected as the 3LW for the American WJC team by Pronman following the WJSS.
I suspect most of it will have to do with how he plays at Minnesota though. He and Knies (selected a pick earlier) will probably be fighting for minutes, both for the Gophers and for Team USA.
rank | feels | calcs | delta | [calcs rating] |
1 | poj | poj | - | 54.83 |
2 | poulin | poulin | - | 54.28 |
3 | doc | clang | clang +13 | 51.38 |
4 | hallander | lindberg | lindberg +3 | 51.38 |
5 | zoho | zoho | - | 50.00 |
6 | legare | doc | doc -3 | 49.50 |
7 | lindberg | lee | lee +8 | 49.00 |
8 | gruden | blomqvist | blomqvist +9 | 48.83 |
9 | puustinen | puustinen | - | 48.83 |
10 | angello | broz | broz +2 | 48.83 |
11 | bjorkqvist | bjorkqvist | - | 40.56 |
12 | broz | gruden | gruden -4 | 40.00 |
13 | bellerive | reilly | reilly +1 | 40.00 |
14 | reilly | angello | angello -4 | 40.00 |
15 | lee | hallander | hallander -11 | 39.17 |
16 | clang | legare | legare -10 | 36.17 |
17 | blomqvist | bellerive | bellerive -4 | 36.00 |
18 | maniscalco | maniscalco | - | 32.89 |
19 | dorio | dorio | - | 32.56 |
20 | svejk | svejk | - | 30.63 |
21 | drozg | drozg | - | 28.22 |
rank | name | p weight |
1 | poulin s | 6.62 |
2 | clang c | 5.80 |
3 | lindberg f | 5.80 |
4 | blomqvist j | 5.80 |
5 | puustinen v | 5.80 |
6 | broz t | 5.80 |
7 | lee c | 4.60 |
8 | joseph po | 4.35 |
9 | oconnor d | 4.35 |
10 | hallander p | 4.35 |
11 | bjorkqvist k | 4.13 |
12 | zohorna r | 3.90 |
13 | gruden j | 3.90 |
14 | reilly w | 3.90 |
15 | legare n | 3.90 |
16 | maniscalco j | 3.53 |
17 | drozg j | 3.53 |
18 | svejkovsky l | 3.45 |
19 | angello | 3.00 |
20 | bellerive j | 3.00 |
21 | dorio a | 2.63 |
rank | name | r weight |
1 | joseph po | 7.75 |
2 | zohorna r | 7.20 |
3 | oconnor d | 6.15 |
4 | angello | 6.00 |
5 | lee c | 5.50 |
6 | bellerive j | 4.80 |
7 | dorio a | 4.50 |
8 | gruden j | 4.20 |
9 | reilly w | 4.20 |
10 | bjorkqvist k | 3.90 |
11 | clang c | 3.81 |
12 | lindberg f | 3.81 |
13 | poulin s | 3.05 |
14 | blomqvist j | 3.05 |
15 | puustinen v | 3.05 |
16 | broz t | 3.05 |
17 | hallander p | 3.05 |
18 | legare n | 3.05 |
19 | maniscalco j | 2.80 |
20 | svejkovsky l | 2.29 |
21 | drozg j | 1.40 |
18/19 | starts | gp | wins | so | ga | sv | gaa | sv% | qs | qs% | rbs | rbs% |
murray m | 27 | 27 | 20 | 1 | 54 | 612 | 2.114 | 0.919 | 21 | 0.778 | 3 | 0.111 |
lindberg f | 14 | 17 | 11 | 4 | 25 | 356 | 1.597 | 0.934 | 13 | 0.765 | 1 | 0.059 |
Δmm - fl | 13 | 10 | 9 | -3 | 29 | 256 | 0.517 | -0.015 | 8 | 0.013 | 2 | 0.052 |
19/20 | starts | gp | wins | so | ga | sv | gaa | sv% | qs | qs% | rbs | rbs% |
murray m | 17 | 20 | 13 | 3 | 34 | 385 | 1.864 | 0.919 | 14 | 0.824 | 2 | 0.118 |
lindberg f | 17 | 18 | 8 | 2 | 30 | 379 | 1.908 | 0.927 | 13 | 0.722 | 2 | 0.111 |
Δmm - fl | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -0.043 | -0.008 | 1 | 0.101 | 0 | 0.007 |
20/21 | starts | gp | wins | so | ga | sv | gaa | sv% | qs | qs% | rbs | rbs% |
murray m | 14 | 14 | 10 | 3 | 28 | 308 | 1.975 | 0.917 | 9 | 0.643 | 2 | 0.143 |
lindberg f | 15 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 357 | 1.241 | 0.949 | 13 | 0.867 | 2 | 0.133 |
Δmm - fl | -1 | -1 | 0 | -2 | 9 | -49 | 0.734 | -0.033 | -4 | -0.224 | 0 | 0.010 |
I'm about 60+ pages behind on the Salary Cap Threads, but saw that @Empoleon8771 and @Goalie_Bob were in disagreement about how elite Filip Lindberg actually is. Which is a valid question, especially since Lindberg's goalie partner (Matt Murray) also had some crazy good college stats.
Out of curiosity, I found their game logs (via collegehockeyinc [good website btw]) and compiled statistical tables for the seasons they played together. In addition to the stats from that site, I calculated "Quality Starts" and "Really Bad Starts" as per how Hockey Reference does it on their player comparison tool.
Alas:
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
18/19 starts gp wins so ga sv gaa sv% qs qs% rbs rbs% murray m 27 27 20 1 54 612 2.114 0.919 21 0.778 3 0.111 lindberg f 14 17 11 4 25 356 1.597 0.934 13 0.765 1 0.059 Δmm - fl 13 10 9 -3 29 256 0.517 -0.015 8 0.013 2 0.052
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
19/20 starts gp wins so ga sv gaa sv% qs qs% rbs rbs% murray m 17 20 13 3 34 385 1.864 0.919 14 0.824 2 0.118 lindberg f 17 18 8 2 30 379 1.908 0.927 13 0.722 2 0.111 Δmm - fl 0 2 5 1 4 6 -0.043 -0.008 1 0.101 0 0.007
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
20/21 starts gp wins so ga sv gaa sv% qs qs% rbs rbs% murray m 14 14 10 3 28 308 1.975 0.917 9 0.643 2 0.143 lindberg f 15 15 10 5 19 357 1.241 0.949 13 0.867 2 0.133 Δmm - fl -1 -1 0 -2 9 -49 0.734 -0.033 -4 -0.224 0 0.010
When looking at their numbers, yes, they seem similar. But if you convert the deltas to percentages (in whatever way you want to do that), then Lindberg's stats become even more impressive. Yes, Lindberg looks to have been worse than Murray in 19/20, but his ridiculous save percentage may indicate that his team let him down. Do note that Murray is a year older.
Disclaimer: I've not seen either of these players play a game.
@Peat I'll get around to answer your question(s) and comments to my post above.
Too Long Didn't Read
...
Okay, seriously, wow, ton of effort. What numbers were you using for this?
My first thoughts are that Hollander’s and Legare's ceilings (particularly Legare's) look pretty low, and there's definitely a weakness with how it's assigning NHL readiness in terms of being a depth AHLer vs being a star junior player/being a strong player in foreign men's leagues. I think in particular the read where being a 19 year old D2 Swedish player is better than being a 21 year old D1 Swedish player, even if the 19 year old went mental, doesn't look right.
Great point about percentages. A 3.3% difference in sv percentage doesn't seem overly impressive at face value.
But then take the inverse of that: Opponents score on 8.3% of shots against Murray. Opponents score on 5.1% of shots against Lindberg.
Take that over 50 games at 30 shots/game. That's a difference of 48 goals. Crazy stuff.
Alrighty, here we go...
For potential, I gave players a ceiling and a floor rating (weighted 67/33). These were based on how I see their talent level/how they're placed in the lineup. It also depended on if I saw them being a line driver/star or were just a complimentary player.
Talent level/lineup placement went: Generational, Top, Middle, Bottom, Extra, Minor. Generational gets a 10.0 rating and Minor a 1.0 -- everything else was equally spaced out on their ratings. These talent ratings were then de-rated by 25% if I only saw them being a complimentary player.
To improve this, I'd like to add another talent level of "Elite" and modify those ratings accordingly. I also need/want to add better descriptors on player types. Such as: Offense Only, Defensive Specialist, Two Way, Grinder, and whatever else. Then give these appropriate de-ratings.
In order to check how my ratings looked, I put McDavid in this Spreadsheet and how I felt about him coming out of the OHL. I gave him a ceiling of "Generational Star" and a floor of "Top Star". This equated to an overall potential rating of 9.4.
For comparison sake, I have Poulin as "Top Star" and "Bottom Complimentary" (oh my god I just realized how this sounds...) for a rating of 6.62 (aka 70.4% of McDavid). Using McDavid's scoring pace for his first two seasons, my Spreadsheet has Poulin maxing out at 67 points in his first 82 NHL games. Which I'd absolutely take.
Talent levels can change the more I learn about a player and the more that player progresses. And, obviously, the points rate is only applicable for forwards.
Readiness values NHL and AHL competition and success more than all other leagues (weighted 40/33/27). And it’s based on their most recent season (past seasons contribute to how I see their ceiling/floor). Originally, competition level was a binary rating, but there’s issues with that which will be talked about later.
Success was then ranked as: Outstanding, Above Average, Average, Below Average, Disappointing. Outstanding would not be de-rated (aka given a 1.0) and Disappointing would be de-rated by 80% (aka given a 0.20). The ratings were equally spaced out by intervals of 20 percent. Clearly, this is quite subjective.
But what about players who only played in Junior a la Poulin? Doesn’t that cause issues because he’s missing out on 73% (NHL 40 + AHL 33) of the Readiness rating? Yes, it does. Which is why I halve their competition level and success rating for every level higher that they did not play.
In Poulin’s case, I ranked him “Above Average” at the Junior level which equates to a 1 x 0.80. This means he gets a 0.50 x 0.40 for the AHL and a 0.25 x 0.20 for the NHL. Given the weighting above, this gives Poulin an overall Readiness of just over 3 out of 10.
And players like POJ who graduated beyond Juniors? These players then get a 1 x 1.00 for whatever level they graduated from. I considered POJ to have performed Above Average in the AHL (1 x 0.80) and Average at the NHL (1 x 0.60). This puts his Readiness just below an 8.
Overall Potential was weighted 67% and Readiness only 33%.
As you mentioned, my Sheet’s got issues. Specifically, with Readiness. My Spreadsheet currently has their age inputted and I can incorporate that somehow. As in, how close is the player to being “fully cooked” for the position they play. I’d also like to do more of an Equivalent NHL Points look at things.
That’s not how I was looking at it, but good point! I was struggling to come up with a percentage calculation that showed that Lindberg was significantly better than Murray. For some reason I was doing the “Percent Error” calculation while using Murray as the Theoretical. No clue why. Brain must’ve been cooked.
Can’t wait until Poulin looks meh in a 9 game call-up and folks give up on him.
player | cp weight | fp weight | p weight | max p/82 | r weight | overall |
angello a | 3.11 | 1.94 | 2.82 | 23.05 | 10.00 | 52.13 |
guentzel j | 7.00 | 6.61 | 6.90 | 56.43 | 10.00 | 79.35 |
mcdavid c | 10.00 | 10.00 | 10.00 | 90.83 | 10.00 | 100.00 |
rust b | 4.58 | 3.33 | 4.27 | 34.91 | 10.00 | 61.81 |
lafferty s | 2.89 | 1.81 | 2.62 | 21.40 | 10.00 | 50.79 |
rank | player | current r weight | previous r weight | previous rank | delta |
1 | zohorna r | 7.23 | 7.20 | 2 | 1 |
2 | joseph po | 7.13 | 7.75 | 1 | -1 |
3 | hallander p | 6.77 | 3.05 | 17 | 14 |
4 | dorio a | 6.32 | 4.50 | 7 | 3 |
5 | puustinen v | 6.02 | 3.05 | 15 | 10 |
6 | oconnor d | 6.01 | 6.15 | 3 | -3 |
7 | gruden j | 5.63 | 4.20 | 8 | 1 |
8 | bellerive j | 5.57 | 4.80 | 6 | -2 |
9 | reilly w | 5.50 | 4.20 | 9 | 0 |
10 | lee c | 5.47 | 5.50 | 5 | -5 |
11 | bjorkqvist k | 5.46 | 3.90 | 10 | -1 |
12 | clang c | 5.12 | 3.81 | 11 | -1 |
13 | lindberg f | 5.03 | 3.81 | 12 | -1 |
14 | almari n | 4.91 | unrated | unrated | n/a |
15 | blomqvist j | 4.76 | 3.05 | 14 | -1 |
16 | drozg j | 4.08 | 1.40 | 21 | 5 |
17 | maniscalco j | 4.08 | 2.80 | 19 | 2 |
18 | almeida j | 4.08 | unrated | unrated | n/a |
19 | poulin s | 3.17 | 3.05 | 13 | -6 |
20 | legare n | 3.16 | 3.05 | 18 | -2 |
21 | broz t | 2.42 | 3.05 | 16 | -5 |
22 | svejkovsky l | 2.40 | 2.29 | 20 | -2 |
@Peat Yesterday I worked on incorporating leagues played in and their age. First of all, I had previously mistakenly thought Hallander was still in the Allsvenskan and not the SHL. Not that my previous version of the sheet would have accounted for this.
Here's the current "readiness" rankings versus the one I posted on the 4th:
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
rank player current r weight previous r weight previous rank delta 1 zohorna r 7.23 7.20 2 1 2 joseph po 7.13 7.75 1 -1 3 hallander p 6.77 3.05 17 14 4 dorio a 6.32 4.50 7 3 5 puustinen v 6.02 3.05 15 10 6 oconnor d 6.01 6.15 3 -3 7 gruden j 5.63 4.20 8 1 8 bellerive j 5.57 4.80 6 -2 9 reilly w 5.50 4.20 9 0 10 lee c 5.47 5.50 5 -5 11 bjorkqvist k 5.46 3.90 10 -1 12 clang c 5.12 3.81 11 -1 13 lindberg f 5.03 3.81 12 -1 14 almari n 4.91 unrated unrated n/a 15 blomqvist j 4.76 3.05 14 -1 16 drozg j 4.08 1.40 21 5 17 maniscalco j 4.08 2.80 19 2 18 almeida j 4.08 unrated unrated n/a 19 poulin s 3.17 3.05 13 -6 20 legare n 3.16 3.05 18 -2 21 broz t 2.42 3.05 16 -5 22 svejkovsky l 2.40 2.29 20 -2
I'm still working on the sheet since it currently has Poulin ranked 8th overall. And that just doesn't seem right.
As a suggestion to maybe enhance your sheet, have you considered adding draft position into your ceiling calculations? It clearly reflects what *someone* thought was that person's ceiling at the time they were 18 years old. It is an empirical data point and it may solve your Poulin conundrum (though I think we overrate Poulin as a prospect on this board generally).
player | rank |
joseph po | 1 |
poulin s | 2 |
hallander p | 3 |
clang c | 4 |
blomqvist j | 5 |
lindberg f | 6 |
zohorna r | 7 |
oconnor d | 8 |
bjorkqvist k | 9 |
broz t | 10 |
puustinen v | 11 |
lee c | 12 |
gruden j | 13 |
reilly w | 14 |
dorio a | 15 |
almeida j | 16 |
maniscalco j | 17 |
legare n | 18 |
svejkovsky l | 19 |
bellerive j | 20 |
drozg j | 21 |
almari n | 22 |