Pittsburgh Penguins Prospects Thread

[HandshakeLine]

You’d have to talk to Pronman about that.

Do you disagree with this assessment though? Because this is what he said..

“I see a third-pair defenseman in the NHL, but if he popped and became a top-four guy, it wouldn’t shock me.”

Isn’t that where we all are at?

I mean, yes, because we're all covering our ass on a message board and not pretending to be experts about it, like Pr0nManne.



But still, POJ has average skating?

 

[Gurglesons]

I mean, yes, because we're all covering our ass on a message board and not pretending to be experts about it, like Pr0nManne.

I’m confused. Do you think POJ is an above average skater?

 

[HandshakeLine]

I’m confused. Do you think POJ is an above average skater?

I think he's above average, but I don't think he's elite, no. Same with his puck moving. But again, you put him in the west and he'd be a "deceptively good skater". You put him on a team with Letang and Matheson and he's... okay. But skating is insanely subjective to evaluate, this is why I'm skeptical of anyone talking about skills like that in absolutes outside of, say, someone like Letang (elite) or Pouliot (bust).

But moreover, I just question how Pronebone watched enough of our prospect pool to figure that out.

 

[SEALBound]

You have to look at these ratings in comparison to other prospect pools. Having a guy that is not a sure fire top pair D versus having players like Byram or Ty Smith makes it easy to understand why POJ is evaluated like he is.

Good point. We also have to keep 'what a prospect pool is' in perspective. We obviously traded a lot of picks and prospects for win-now, help-now players. Let's use Zucker and Kapanen as two examples as we spent a lot on them. There are 30 other teams that hope and pray that any one of their top prospects turn into what Zucker and Kapanen are (for the forwards anyway). The goal is to win the Cup not to have the best prospect pool and win a poll online by some random journo. We have guys that help that effort now. Guys that are proven to be able to help. Kappy is young to boot.

You also have to consider the NHL vs prospects rosters as well. John Marino could be on the prospect list for Edmonton if that trade doesn't go down but Edmonton elects to get Ceci and Keith. Would Marino be on that roster if he was still with Edmonton? Doubtful. But that would certainly boost their "prospect pool". I guess what I'm getting at is that when we have these upper-end prospects, we put them on the NHL roster or we use them to get better guys on the NHL roster. We do a decent job of refilling the coffers with our picks and the NCAA and other FAs though. I just think it's tough to judge all prospect pools on the same criteria. Who's #1-5? I bet teams that have been dog shit for a decade and haven't sniffed a SCF. I mean, we can oooo and ahhh over rosters and prospect pools of certain teams...but we have to remember what those teams have accomplished in the last 5 years. Not much. They've likely been shit that has put them in a position to obtain those top assets.

Sustained success and competitiveness like us? Of course we have the worst prospect pool. Why wouldn't we?

 

[Gurglesons]

I think he's above average, but I don't think he's elite, no. Same with his puck moving. But again, you put him in the west and he'd be a "deceptively good skater". You put him on a team with Letang and Matheson and he's... okay. But skating is insanely subjective to evaluate, this is why I'm skeptical of anyone talking about skills like that in absolutes outside of, say, someone like Letang (elite) or Pouliot (bust).

But moreover, I just question how Pronebone watched enough of our prospect pool to figure that out.

Because he is paid to watch prospects?

I don’t see POJ being above average at anything. Like do you consider Dumo above average at skating?

 

[SEALBound]

Because he is paid to watch prospects?

I don’t see POJ being above average at anything. Like do you consider Dumo above average at skating?

No. He's average. Thing about average is...it doesn't mean you're bad. Average is average. Average is not poor or below average. The "average" skating ability level in the league keeps increasing due to the focus on skating and speed as a general trend.

You can be average and still be fast and a good quality skater. I think the distribution for "average" is quite large. You have the top 1% in the McDavids, the top 10% which is above average, then 80% of the league is average, then 10% is below average where their skating makes their effectiveness as a player less.

POJ, average skater and that's not a bad thing. It just means he's not Letang.

 

[Gurglesons]

No. He's average. Thing about average is...it doesn't mean you're bad. Average is average. Average is not poor or below average. The "average" skating ability level in the league keeps increasing due to the focus on skating and speed as a general trend.

You can be average and still be fast and a good quality skater. I think the distribution for "average" is quite large. You have the top 1% in the McDavids, the top 10% which is above average, then 80% of the league is average, then 10% is below average where their skating makes their effectiveness as a player less.

POJ, average skater and that's not a bad thing. It just means he's not Letang.

Yeah, pretty much how I feel. POJ being an average skater doesn't mean he is bad. It means he's a typical skater like Dumoulin. He's probably above average for his size, but he looks like Pettersson in terms of his skating ability.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Neither here nor there, but I think Dumoulin is actually a very strong skater.

Petts is what I'd class as an average skater, maybe a tick below.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Yeah, pretty much how I feel. POJ being an average skater doesn't mean he is bad. It means he's a typical skater like Dumoulin. He's probably above average for his size, but he looks like Pettersson in terms of his skating ability.

Which is what I'm getting at. In one post you've both described him as above-average and average when talking about the same quality in the same player. It's a very subjective quality to be fair, but you'd think Mr. Paid to WatchProspects would acknowledge that?

Like do you consider Dumo above average at skating?

Sure, but what average is in the league fluctuates year by year. I think, in the end, skating isn't even a huge indicator of success in the league, but it's weird to hold it against one prospect as a disadvantage where a very similar skater is heralded for his ability, just based on the teammates he's surrounded with.

I dunno. Like I don't think POJ is some future Goligoski or anything so modest, but I'm just saying, it's a very weird prospect evaluation and might as well call it as such.

 

[Gurglesons]

Which is what I'm getting at. In one post you've both described him as above-average and average when talking about the same quality in the same player. It's a very subjective quality to be fair, but you'd think Mr. Paid to WatchProspects would acknowledge that?



Sure, but what average is in the league fluctuates year by year. I think, in the end, skating isn't even a huge indicator of success in the league, but it's weird to hold it against one prospect as a disadvantage where a very similar skater is heralded for his ability, just based on the teammates he's surrounded with.

I dunno. Like I don't think POJ is some future Goligoski or anything so modest, but I'm just saying, it's a very weird prospect evaluation and might as well call it as such.

I think your focusing on one aspect being posted while not reading the entirety of the article, tbh. As I said. He said he's a bottom pairing D that might be a middle pairing guy. I think that's how we all feel about POJ.

If you are comparing POJ to the top 50 prospects in the league his skating is likely decidedly average which I believe is the evaluation of this process.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Which is what I'm getting at. In one post you've both described him as above-average and average when talking about the same quality in the same player. It's a very subjective quality to be fair, but you'd think Mr. Paid to WatchProspects would acknowledge that?

I think @SEALBound was onto something earlier when he talked about basically bell-curve distribution of skating. Like could POJ hypothetically be in the 60th percentile of skating and technically that is >50%? Yes. But how much of a difference is there between the 50th percentile and 60th percentile in today's NHL? Not much.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Dumo's skating was affected pretty heavily by the leg/foot injuries in recent years and he was a shell of himself while dealing with those injuries. If POJ's strength (skating) is actually simply average, that doesn't exactly bode well for the guy. Skating and IQ is all he has, from what I understand. He's no bruiser, he's no special teams specialist, he's no offensive catalyst. He's Dumo-lite, and without skating being above average for either of those guys, you have a pretty lackluster player.

But who gives a shit what Pronman or anyone else says. Just wait and see what happens. Personally, I don't think any of our prospects really stand out to be anything more than middle-6/middle pairing guys if all works out perfectly. Not exactly prospects to bat an eye over either way.

 

[HandshakeLine]

I think your focusing on one aspect being posted while not reading the entirety of the article, tbh. As I said. He said he's a bottom pairing D that might be a middle pairing guy. I think that's how we all feel about POJ.

If you are comparing POJ to the top 50 prospects in the league his skating is likely decidedly average which I believe is the evaluation of this process.

And I'm saying it's a dumb process being done by a glorified gym coach on twitter. I dunno. Not one of these prospect evaluator dudes has seemed to be able to call a breakout dude until they're already established, but people pay them, so I say ride the scam all the way to the bank.

 

[ChaosAgent]

But who gives a shit what Pronman or anyone else says. Just wait and see what happens. Personally, I don't think any of our prospects really stand out to be anything more than middle-6/middle pairing guys if all works out perfectly. Not exactly prospects to bat an eye over either way.

Our best odds at having a standout in our prospect pool are at the goalie position. We have 3 of them and goalies develop weird. It's possible one could really, really pop and become a franchise guy.

 

[HandshakeLine]

I think @SEALBound was onto something earlier when he talked about basically bell-curve distribution of skating. Like could POJ hypothetically be in the 60th percentile of skating and technically that is >50%? Yes. But how much of a difference is there between the 50th percentile and 60th percentile in today's NHL? Not much.

I mean, a real issue isn't just the physical threshold of a skill here, but the ability to deploy it. And that's something that's hard to judge with various systems, usage, and players. There's no stats that measure pure puck moving or skating ability or positional play. That's something that you make an educated guess at after a significant sample of play, and I highly doubt that these prospect prognosticators are doing all that leg work for every team in the league to properly make any kind of declaration. So unless you have a skillset that's easily tracked (goals! hitting! fights!), it's all a weird judgement call.

It's basically horse handicapping for people.

 

[Gurglesons]

And I'm saying it's a dumb process being done by a glorified gym coach on twitter. I dunno. Not one of these prospect evaluator dudes has seemed to be able to call a breakout dude until they're already established, but people pay them, so I say ride the scam all the way to the bank.

I mean, let's be honest.. some NHL scouts are probably just as "glorified" as Pronman.

He's been on the payroll of ESPN, the Athletic and others since like 2012. I feel like he's watched a lot more minor league hockey than anyone else on here.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Our best odds at having a standout in our prospect pool are at the goalie position. We have 3 of them and goalies develop weird. It's possible one could really, really pop and become a franchise guy.

Maybe. Nobody really knows shit about Broz yet. /shrug A year from now everyone could be salivating over his potential.

Tough to really gauge anything, or really give a shit, about a prospect pool as miserable as ours due to our "f*** the future" approach for the last 15 years.

 

[HandshakeLine]

I mean, let's be honest.. some NHL scouts are probably just as "glorified" as Pronman.

For sure. It's also a position that should merit little to no respect until you have like a huge track record that's indisputable.

 

[Gurglesons]

For sure. It's also a position that should merit little to no respect until you have like a huge track record that's indisputable.

I specifically remember Pronman being really high on Horvat when a lot of people thought Vancouver were insane to take him where they did.

I dunno, as I said he isn't my favorite prospect guy, but I respect his opinion. All prospect analysis is a guess.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I mean, a real issue isn't just the physical threshold of a skill here, but the ability to deploy it. And that's something that's hard to judge with various systems, usage, and players. There's no stats that measure pure puck moving or skating ability or positional play. That's something that you make an educated guess at after a significant sample of play, and I highly doubt that these prospect prognosticators are doing all that leg work for every team in the league to properly make any kind of declaration.

100%. The ability to process the play at the NHL level and figure out how to deploy stuff to be a good player is the big "fill in the blank" that everyone gets wrong.

This is actually the same discussion we were having on the Pirates thread that devolved into a conversation about drinking. Sorry in advance for the cross-sport comparison. Yeah we know a pitching prospect throws good pitches, but can he put those into effect to get major league hitters out?

To a certain extent I don't think you know until you see it against the highest level of competition.

 

[HandshakeLine]

He's been on the payroll of ESPN, the Athletic and others since like 2012.

Dude, I love you like a brother, but you also realize that people like Puck Daddy have the same claim to fame? Hell, I'm pretty sure 75% of the hockey writers in the media world don't even watch the games they're paid to cover.

 

[Peat]

Pronman's said when he says average, he means league average. Being above-average as a skater for a big guy still equals average.

So far this all seems fair enough. I'm not sure I agree mind - I feel like I've seen POJ look like a plus skater, and hell, if you go back to last year, where 50 seemed to be average footspeed, and 55 was speed, and 60 was tremendous speed... Pronman had POJ as a 55.

I have to say, looking closer at Pronman's blurbs vs Pronman's rankings, I do have questions. 3rd pairing guy who might pop as a 2nd pairing guy feels fair enough about POJ... but if you're talking up his mobility and skating of pucks, is he really an average skater? Poulin has very good puck skills and sees the ice at a high level, but is only average at both? And Legare, who is better than Poulin based on his tier rankings, is below him? It's not a huge deal, but his words don't really match his ratings.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I think national prospect guys don't know much more than the average obsessed fan for any given team.

However put together they have enough knowledge of all the systems to where I trust their opinion on team v. team rankings. Our system has some potential useful players, but altogether it sucks. The headliners are POJ and a guy who couldn't make Canada's WJC team at age 20.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Larry Brooks gets paid to do what he does. Chiarelli got paid to do what he did. Melrose, Wysh, Roenick, Milbury, etc.

Getting paid to do something doesn't make you infallible. Certainly not to the degree of brushing off stuff like HSL or someone else saying "Hmm, seems weird. Disagree."

 

[HandshakeLine]

I know it's ironic for a website founded on a nigh-on insane prospect "rating" system, but man, I just do not get how anyone can properly evaluate more than one team. Hell, look at how often both the team scouts and the ranking systems are totally wrong on the drafts outside of the sure-fire picks.