Confirmed Signing with Link: [PIT] Pens re-sign Guentzel (5 years, $6M AAV)

[Ziggdiezan]

It's cap inflation. As the cap goes higher, the percentages players get stay relatively similar.

In 2016 there was a 71.4M cap. Given the cap will be at 83 million when this extension kicks in, this is similar to a player being signed to a contract that is a tad above 5M in 2016.

Not to mention, his regular season points per game averages out to about 59 points per 82 games.

Here's some perspective on why your cries about a lockout are hyperbole. Ryan Nugent-Hopkin's post ELC contract would be 7.75M x 7 years if equalized to an 83 million dollar cap. That's with 3 UFA years being bought up. It was signed after he had scored around 70 points in 100 games. There's an array of similar contracts which that formula can be done for to illustrate that players have been getting similar contracts for most of the last decade. People just fail to account for cap inflation and lose their minds.

This contract seems like a bargain to me. They have locked down a top 6 player who has been beastly in the last two playoffs to a very reasonable cap hit and term that doesn't contain any signing bonuses and only has modest trade protection.

I understand percentage of caps and your using this years stats whereby the goals/game and amount of PPG players in the league are much higher than previous years. Everyone has padded stats so far and as we approach the playoffs, teams will tighten up and scoring will decrease. That or the goalie equipment changes worked.

Using a recent first overall as your main comparison to Guentzel is a pretty terrible idea especially when they were a center on a poor Edmonton teams vs a winger playing with Crosby. Then there is the whole thing about RNH breaking into the NHL right after being drafted vs Guentzel at 22.

I dont think the McDavid contract or some of the RFA contracts that will been given this upcoming summer fit in with your narrative btw. Show me some players coming off their ELC who got paid the most in the league while buying so few UFA years due to the new max 8 year contracts.

Again I think this contract is a good one relative to the contacts we are seeing handed out now.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

I understand percentage of caps and your using this years stats whereby the goals/game and amount of PPG players in the league are much higher than previous years. Everyone has padded stats so far and as we approach the playoffs, teams will tighten up and scoring will decrease. That or the goalie equipment changes worked.

Using a recent first overall as your main comparison to Guentzel is a pretty terrible idea especially when they were a center on a poor Edmonton teams vs a winger playing with Crosby. Then there is the whole thing about RNH breaking into the NHL right after being drafted vs Guentzel at 22.

I dont think the McDavid contract or some of the RFA contracts that will been given this upcoming summer fit in with your narrative btw. Show me some players coming off their ELC who got paid the most in the league while buying so few UFA years due to the new max 8 year contracts.

Again I think this contract is a good one relative to the contacts we are seeing handed out now.

Crosby signed a 5 year deal at a higher cap hit percentage than McDavid who gave up more UFA years than Crosby.

 

[Peat]

I get that he had an amazing playoffs the last 2 years but it seems crazy the league is paying guys 6 million a year when they havent even broken 50 points yet.

Lockout incoming

He's got over half the season to score the 18 points that would require. At his current pace, he'd score that 18 points twice over.

I don't see what's crazy about jumping the gun and awarding the contract now rather than at the end of the season.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Couldn't be happier to have the clutchest playoff winger in the league signed up for the another 5 years.

Guentzel's cold-blooded, and while some people like to speculate about what other players could do with Sid, their best-case scenarios don't look any better than what Guentzel's already done when it matters most.

People who watch the Pens know what he brings, but all it should take for anyone else to understand Guentzel's impact is a look at Crosby's playoff production in the last few playoffs before Guentzel came along.

They make each other better.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Crosby signed a 5 year deal at a higher cap hit percentage than McDavid who gave up more UFA years than Crosby.

Crosby did have a better first 3 years but fair enough, however there was a lockout a few years after he signed that contract.

 

[Koized]

It's not like Guentzel just stands around waiting for Sid to do all the work and get him the puck in a scoring area. They work off each other. Guentzel plays a complete game. And he's already proven to be a big game player.

He's comprable to Zucker & Schwartz and their deals were almost identical.

Schwartz is a much better player. Don’t let your bias make you think otherwise.

 

[Jacob]

Schwartz is a much better player.

Evidence?

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I didnt even bring up Nylander, I just pointed to the fact that Nylander in fact did not get way more PP opportunities than Guentzel last year. Was 2 mins/game vs 1.8 mins/game both on the 2nd PP unit.

Yup I get why your happy, congrats you locked up Sid the Kids winger for the next 5 years after which you guys are likely heading for a rebuild anyways. Extends your window for sure.

You're also ignoring the players who played on Nylander's PP unit last year. Babcock split the two units almost evenly, with Matthews being on Nylander's unit. Pittsburgh doesn't split the units, so the second unit doesn't have much talent left available to it.

2 minutes of PP time with Auston Matthews is a lot more beneficial to someone's stats than 1 minute and 45 seconds of PP time with Conor Sheary as the next best player on the unit.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Crosby did have a better first 3 years but fair enough, however there was a lockout a few years after he signed that contract.

Correlation doesn't imply causation.

Your initial argument was contracts like Guentzel's were going to lead to a lockout. I am pointing out that your argument made no sense because Guentzel's contract was incredibly conservative, or at the very least in line with what other young top 6 players have been signing for most of the last decade.

Crosby's previous contract did not have anything to do with a lockout. You are trying to make an argument that players are getting higher AAVs now with less of a resume, and I am pointing out that what you are viewing as ridiculous AAVs are actually in line with what players in the past have signed for once cap inflation is taken into account.

You're also nit picking, as if Crosby and McDavid aren't comparable contracts. They both were hyped as generational prospects, they both won the Art Ross and Hart as sophomores. Crosby signed a significantly more lucrative post-ELC deal than McDavid as it was a higher cap hit percentage and bought up less UFA years.

This isn't me arguing that there aren't issues with current NHL contracts. There are major issues with the structure of signing bonuses, and it will likely be a huge contention leading into the next CBA negotiations. This has nothing to do with your argument though. I only bring it up preemptively. Your original argument centered around Guentzel's AAV and term being out of line with his resume as a player, and how it is supposedly such a great issue that it will lead to a lockout. I think it's a ridiculous argument since this is one of the safer more conservative contracts we've seen a young star given as of late. (Only 5 years long, no signing bonuses, only a 12 team no trade list).

 

[Riptide]

I get that he had an amazing playoffs the last 2 years but it seems crazy the league is paying guys 6 million a year when they havent even broken 50 points yet.

Lockout incoming

I guess you're not aware that the individual contracts players sign don't actually contribute to a lockout. The players share is capped at 50%. Which means it doesn't matter if Guentzel signs for 6m or 10m or 4m.

That said, the idea that because he hasn't "hit 50 points" and thus doesn't deserve this contract just shows how little you know about him.

 

[Allie Kitsune]

It is ridiculous how people think that you can just plug any stiff on Sid's line and bam, you have a 30 goal scoring wing.

Over the years we have seen that some players fit well with him and some do not. Some do not work out at all.

As you say they compliment each other well, both the speed of their game and the intelligence of their games, and that is not as easy to find and some seem to think.

It's like people think he's Brian Gibbons.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

Crosby signed a 5 year deal at a higher cap hit percentage than McDavid who gave up more UFA years than Crosby.

Crosby's cap hit % was lower when the contract actually came into effect though.

 

[Riptide]

Nylander had 170 PP mins in 82 games played last year (~2 mins/game) while Guentzel had 151 PP mins in 82 games played (~1.8 mins/game).

Wouldnt say way more PP opportunities.

Except that not all PP minutes are equal. Go look at who Nylander played with on the PP. 137 with Marleau and 130 with Matthews. By comparison Guentzel's top 2 forwards were 70 minutes with Sheary and 68 minutes with Kessel.

Pittsburgh's #1PP is extremely set: Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, Hornqvist + Letang/Schultz. Guentzel is the first guy up, but he only gets promoted if one of those forwards is hurt. Otherwise he plays with whatever we have left over.

I didnt even bring up Nylander, I just pointed to the fact that Nylander in fact did not get way more PP opportunities than Guentzel last year. Was 2 mins/game vs 1.8 mins/game both on the 2nd PP unit.

Yup I get why your happy, congrats you locked up Sid the Kids winger for the next 5 years after which you guys are likely heading for a rebuild anyways. Extends your window for sure.

Must be nice to have Matthew's caliber players on the 2nd PP unit.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Crosby's cap hit % was lower when the contract actually came into effect though.

I'm going off Capfriendly's numbers. Whether or not there is a slight variance doesn't change the point, that Crosby who is a comparable player to McDavid signed a contract with a similar AAV when the cap was accounted for. Again, this is considering that Crosby gave up fewer UFA years.

That was in response to McDavid's contract being touted as some dictation that players salaries are out of control, he said - "Show me some players coming off their ELC who got paid the most in the league while buying so few UFA years due to the new max 8 year contracts."

 

[CrosbyMalkin]

I guess you're not aware that the individual contracts players sign don't actually contribute to a lockout. The players share is capped at 50%. Which means it doesn't matter if Guentzel signs for 6m or 10m or 4m.

That said, the idea that because he hasn't "hit 50 points" and thus doesn't deserve this contract just shows how little you know about him.

People grasp for straws when they say comments like he hasn’t scored 50 points yet. How about that is because he only had one full season so far!

First year as a Pro he comes up half way through the year and gets 16 goals and 33 points in 40 games played, then another 13 goals and 21 points in the playoffs in 25 games. That is 29 goals and 54 points in 65 games that season! Then has an off first full season and gets 22 goals and 48 points but then scores 10 goals and 21 points in 12 games in the playoffs. This year he starts out with 15 goals and 33 points in 37 games! So while they can technically say look Guentzel has not scored 50 points in a regular season that is just junk in evaluating him as a player since he only has played one full season so far.

When you add up all his games and points he is well above a 50 point player. First year in the league he had 29 goals and 54 points in 65 games played (regular season/playoffs). Second year he had 32 goals and 69 points in 94 games (regular season/playoffs). This season 15 goals and 33 points in 37 games. So when you take those averages you are looking at a 30+ goal scorer average and 65+ points per 82 games played player so far in his career. When you add in that almost all of that is 5v5 makes that even more impressive. Also what makes it more impressive is he steps up his game in the playoffs. People arguing that he hasn’t proven this contract are insane. Pointing out this 50 point thing makes him and others like him that posted this crap look bitter and biased. Look at his overall production for his career. Either people like this are trolls or have no hockey knowledge. Scary!

 

[Beauner]

Evidence?

He says so

 

[CrosbyMalkin]

I get that he had an amazing playoffs the last 2 years but it seems crazy the league is paying guys 6 million a year when they havent even broken 50 points yet.

Lockout incoming

[mod] Hey how about add up his games then add up his goals and points then calculate that into an 82 game season average? Wait let me do that for you 31.79 goals per 82 games over his career and 65.26 points per 82 games. So for all games played in his NHL career Guentzel has been a 30+ goal scorer average per 82 games and 65 point average per 82 games and almost all those points are 5v5. How is that not worth $6 million a year? Also you have to factor in his raising of his game in playoffs. Those are his averages combined all games.

Can we just have some fair analysis on these boards please. Guentzel is very underrated around these parts. His 5v5 numbers has been pretty impressive since he has been in the league he has been one of the best 5v5 players in the game. I bet you take his 5v5 goals and points per game average for his goals and points that are not PP of his 76 goals and 156 points in 196 games played it is definitely top 20 in the NHL. I think someone pointed out tied for 11th when you factor in a certain amount of qualifying minutes or games played factors. So let’s stop this biased assessment that Guentzel is some sub 50 point player. That is just an absurd way to base his contract.

 

[bobbythebrain]

He's been great in the playoffs, no argument there but 6 mill still seems high for a guy that hasn't hit 50 points in a season imo

Nylander is grossly overpaid for a 60 point player who abandons his team offensively and physically in the playoffs

 

[ManwithNoIdentity]

I'm jealous.

Hopefully we'll see signings like this someday.

 

[Alan Wake]

Makes Nylander's contract look pretty good

Guentzel - 33 points in 37 games played
Nylander - 2 points in 9 games played

...weird flex but okay.

 

[CartographerNo611]

Yeah its time for another lockout if a Crosby product is making 30 million.

 

[Riptide]

Yeah its time for another lockout if a Crosby product is making 30 million.

Guess it's a good thing he's not a "Crosby product" then isn't it?

 

[Soundwave]

Yeah its time for another lockout if a Crosby product is making 30 million.

Or maybe the cap has gone up by freaking $10 million dollars in 3 years and you can't expect player salaries to not rise due to cap inflation.

$6 million is the new $4 million salary, just like the 82 million cap (estimate) is the new $70 million cap.

 

[CartographerNo611]

Guess it's a good thing he's not a "Crosby product" then isn't it?

Plays with Crosby or Malkin and every game I have watched he is on his butt more often than not. Just like Neal, Kunitz, Dupuis, Simon the full time AHLer, or any of Crosby's linemates who magically got a big numbers boost. Guentzel is a product of Crosby and should be sending him half of the 3o million to him. Take away the generational talent and Guentz becomes the most overpaid zamboni since Hartnell roamed the ice.

 

[gtrower]

I’d be interested to see his production away from Crosby. Not really implying anything there, just would be interesting. Regardless, he’s earned the $ through playoff performances.